Over the Monster: FanPosts

Bay to the Yankees? Holliday to the Red Sox?

2009-11-20T04:39:51Z

If the rumor is true that Bay did reject the red sox offer, which we can't prove or disprove at this point, who's to say the Yankees won't swoop in and offer him crazy money like with Texiera? The Yankees really do need OF help if they don't want to sign Matsui or Damon. That would leave them with Gardener and Melky right now, they have to fix that before the season starts without question they will make a run for a big name.

How would you guys feel if the red sox made a large offer to Holliday? I think this would actually work out quite well. I would REALLY love to see the red sox sign both Holliday AND Bay. Move Bay to right field and get rid of JD Drew. Adding Holliday would bring us another 30 HR hitter.

Poll

Who would you rather have playing left field for the Red Sox in 2010?

Jason Bay rejects Sox offer

2009-11-19T17:35:30Z

According to Jon Heyman from SI Jason Bay has rejected the Sox contract offer of four years worth 60 million dollars. They have until Midnight tonight to bang out a deal. Bay's agent has said that they will not get a deal done soon but they will remain in contact. Bay does not seem likely to give the Sox any discount. It seems that the Red Sox have offered him a fair deal. This wouldn't be the first time they have lost out on a player's services because of an unwillingness to go the extra mile though Bay seems a bit selfish here.

Damon may not sign with yanks....scary

2009-11-13T04:19:34Z

ok so damon did do great last year, esp in the ws. and normally i would say nice to the fact that the mfy are possibly loosing him, but this gives the mfy a perfect chance to get matt holliday. This is so scary.... to me at least. Yes i realize that people think holliday cant hit in the a.l blah blah blah, but a lineup with teix arod holliday is terrifying. Any thoughts??

Baseball Prospectus' Top 11 Red Sox Prospects

2009-11-12T18:32:27Z

Baseball Prospectus released their list of the Top 11 Red Sox prospects, with an additional 4 noted after that, for a total of the Top 15.

Link

Five-Star Prospects
1. Ryan Westmoreland, CF
2. Casey Kelly RHP/SS
Four-Star Prospects
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Ryan Kalish, OF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
6. Jose Iglesias, SS
7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Reymond Fuentes, CF
11. Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS

And

Four More:
12. David Renfroe, RHP/SS: Like Kelly, he's another big-bonus, two-way star, but Renfroe will begin his career as an infielder, and he projects as a prototypical third baseman due to his size, power potential, and arm.
13. Alex Wilson, RHP: He had a 0.50 ERA in New York-Penn League while giving up just 10 hits in 36 innings, but he's already 23, so he should dominate. Still, his fastball/slider combo is impressive.
14. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP: The young Dominican righty still has plus command and plenty of projection, but performances have been so-so.
15. Che-Hsuan Lin, LF: Lin’s tools still impress, his defense remains outstanding, his numbers... not so much, but Red Sox officials remain very high on him.

If you have a subscription to BP you can read details on all the top picks, but if not all you can read is the Westmoreland detail, where Goldstein says

Perfect World Projection: Westmoreland could be the kind of player people thought Grady Sizemore would become.

I don't have a subscription but I've read that Goldstein called Kelly's ceiling as a #2 starter and an "occasional all-star", not really an ace ceiling at this point.

Baseball America's list should be out in mid-December.

Wagner could accept Arbitration

2009-11-11T21:05:30Z

per: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/billy-wagner-could-accept-arbitration.html

Billy Wagner's agent Bean Stringfellow says not to rule out his client accepting an arbitration offer from the Red Sox, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. Stringfellow said that prior to a recent meeting with his client, he believed there was no chance Wagner would accept. Wagner loved his experience with the Red Sox enough that it's now a possibility. Stringfellow "fully anticipates" an arbitration offer by the Red Sox. Wagner is a Type A free agent, so the Sox will snag two draft picks if he declines the offer and signs elsewhere.

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports learned from Stringfellow that six teams called about Wagner so far, all of them interested in him as a closer. The writers noted that the Tigers, Astros, Rays, Orioles, and Braves have the need.

Looks like a win-win here. He accepts and we get another year of what seemed to be a rejuvenated Billy Wagner. Otherwise we go back to the original draft picks outcome. Nice.

The Adventures of Statman: Attack of the Scioscier

2009-11-10T16:26:59Z

Because Baseball Traditionalists are a cowardly and superstitious lot, I will become an icon of fear. I take up the mantle of the Stat. For I... am Learning. I... am the Math. I... am STATMAN!

See the continuing adventures of Statman and Divisor, his trusted companion, as the Formulaic Duo! Tonight they face their greatest foe yet, the Scioscier!!

Divisor: Leaping limits, Statman! Someone's crashed World of Warcraft! WoW's an integral part of my life - I don't know what else I'd do on Friday nights after working hard at school. I might have to take that hot chick Betty to a movie like she keeps asking me to!
Statman: Worry not, chum. We'll save WoW, protect you from a social life, and get you back to leveling your undead mage by Midnight! To the Statmobile!

[Statman and Divisor drive to the scene of the crime.]

Commissioner Selig: As you can see, Statman, someone turned off the servers, and then arranged them into this pattern...

[Statman looks at the toppled servers, his superior sabermetric skills at work.]

Statman: Radii... circumference... Great Scott! It looks like a circle... But wait... there's nothing inside it. It looks more like... [gasp] a Halo!... But who could have committed this nefarious deed?

[With a high-pitched laugh, a caped conspirator appears on a ledge above them. A flash of lightning illuminates his fearsome figure!]

Scioscier: It is I, Statman, your newest, greatest foe - the Scioscier!
Divisor: Querulous Quotient, Statman! He looks just like John McCain!
Scioscier: Hahahaha! You stand no chance against me! I will rule the night, and you will rue the day! My speedy minions will destroy you! Attack Aybar, Scone and Abreu!

[Three lithe delinquents dart onto the scene, menacing Statman.]

Statman: You forgot to factor something into your equation - Statarangs! They'll cross multiply your problems!

[He tosses Plus Sign Shurikens at the malcontents, knocking them out.]

Divisor: Divide and conquer! Ha!
Scioscier: You may have bested my speedsters, but you'll never defeat, The LACKEY!

[The ground thunders as Statman and Divisor turn to see a massive, bloated form emerge from the shadows.]

Divisor: Suffering sequential sets, Statman! That monster is growing exponentially!
Statman: Then we'll just have to get to the Square Root of the problem! Statman to Statmobile - fire the Log Gun!

KABLAMO!!!!

[The LACKEY shrinks to a height of two feet.]

Divisor: Nice work, Statman. Now, he's just a fraction of himself!
Scioscier: Rats! You may have foiled me today, but I'll best you next offseason! ... All I need is more speedy centerfielders!!!

[The Scioscier shrinks away, as the Formulaic Duo turn on the servers again. Meanwhile, Commissioner Selig comes out from hiding.]

Selig: You've saved us, Statman! How can I ever thank you?
Statman: It was nothing, Commissioner. Although... you could contribute some money to Bruce NotStatman's Excel Spreadsheets for Tots Foundation - I hear they do good work. But in the meantime, as long as there is someone menacing the sport of baseball, or the world of MMORPGs, I'll be at the ready!
Divisor: That reminds me, I should cancel that date with Betty tonight. I really want to do that new Isle of the Burning Pelicans quest!
Statman: [patting his enormous, engorged chest] Hahaha! That's the way, lad. To the stat-mobile! I bet my Paladin can PK you any day!

THE END.

Or is it? Tune in next week to find out!

Free Agents

2009-11-10T15:50:41Z

I check out MLB trade rumors a lot, and they recently posted MLB's to 50 FAs and predictions for their destinations. Take it with a grain of salt but, I thought some of these predictions would make for an interesting discussion. Here's who they have landing with the Red Sox:

3. Jason Bay - Red Sox. It's been rumored the Red Sox are willing to offer four years and $60MM to Bay. That seems to be a fair opening bid, given his defensive struggles.

8. Marco Scutaro - Red Sox. It's difficult to place Scutaro, because not many teams with shortstop vacacies will be willing to pay the three years and $18MM+ he'll likely demand. The Sox would be getting the best available shortstop here, but they could instead choose Jed Lowrie and/or Alex Gonzalez.

10. Rich Harden - Red Sox. A one-year deal with a $7MM base salary would be difficult for Harden to resist. His injuries are maddening, but he leads free agent starters with a 10.9 K/9.

17. Aroldis Chapman - Red Sox. They've been heavily involved with Chapman from the start, and may consider him a long-term investment worth more than $20MM.

32. Tim Wakefield - Red Sox. Wakefield had back surgery in October, but the Red Sox will probably still view him as a bargain at $4MM.

Here's the link if you want to check out the other predictions.

Obviously Tim Wakefield is a done deal, and I agree that the Sox will sign Bay in the end, but I have trouble believing that they would sign all three of the others. I love the Chapman idea. Our farm system has no one that will be ready in a year or two, and Chapman would fill that void.

Harden was a decent SP last year for the Cubs (9-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171K/67BB, 141 IP), but he could add some great depth to our rotation. You can never have too much pitching, and adding Harden would give us 6 SP, with Chapman likely spending time in the minors.

Idk how I feel about Scutaro, but with a lack of other options, he's probably out best bet.

2010

Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Dice-K, Harden or Wakefield.

Lineup: Ells, Pedroia, VMart, Youk, Bay, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, Scutaro.

Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects

2009-11-10T15:30:29Z

Greetings fellow Over the Monster readers,

I write about the MLB Draft for Examiner.com and am hoping to direct some traffic to my first post on the top 15 high school MLB draft prospects. Please feel free to comment (preferably on my site, but I'm happy to respond here as well).

Here is some information about me:

Jesse Burkhart, 23, is a North Carolina resident and a former correspondent for Baseball America. He attended USA Baseball's Tournament of Stars in Cary, N.C. and the East Coast Pro Showcase in Lakeland, FL in 2009, and he regularly attends other high school and college baseball games along the east coast. He recently graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill with a degree in Journalism & Mass Communication. You can contact him at jesse.burkhart@gmail.com.

Thanks for reading,

Jesse

twitter | jesseburkhart AIM | jb02186

Sox, Wakefield Agree to 2-year/$5 Million Contract

2009-11-09T20:42:41Z

According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, the Sox will not pick up Wake's perpetual $4 million option.

Wake will be guaranteed $5 million--$3.5 million in 2010 and $1.5 million in 2011. The deal has options which could net Wake a total of $7 million over two years, $1 million less than the Sox would have paid had they picked up the option this year and next. This is a good deal for the Sox and for Wake, who needs just 18 wins to be the Sox' all-time leader.

Who is your daddy and what does he do?

2009-11-09T19:25:24Z

Alright, so I'm not really interested in your daddy, but after seeing the OTM book club idea and remembering that Talking Chop did this from time to time, I would like to know how the OTM members spend their time when not focused on baseball. I figure that the offseason would be as good of a time as any to do this since some, including myself, don't tend to follow the day to day stuff of baseball nearly as much as when the season is going on. So what exactly do we do during the offseason? I think this would give us a good chance to get to know our fellow OTMers, instead of just knowing things like Drugs is the guy that loves stats, or that NG is an undercover troll posing as a true fan.

So what do you do? I don't care what it is, if you like playing hopscotch in your free time or reading My Little Pony comics, good for you. The more variety the better. I'm always looking for new books, games or music to look into so if anybody felt like volunteering their current interests perhaps we can find more in common than just a love for the Sox and Peanut Butter.

Here is what I currently do to keep myself busy:

What am I playing: Currently I'm going between three games: Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Borderlands and Dragon Age Origins (all for Xbox 360)

What am I reading: I've been on a fantasy binge because I'm trying to write a story of my own, I am currently finishing the book Redwall (read once growing up) and will move onto the trilogy Gotrek and Felix (part of the Warhammer series)

What am I listening to: I've been loving up this band The Format and the lead singers second project called fun.

What am I watching: Just finished the short-lived series Wonderfalls and first season of Cheers. Finishing the second season of Pushing Daisies. Not a big fan of movies now a days.

Don't feel like you need to elborate if you want to post, I just have a long lunch break to fill up and am interested in what the rest of this community does for fun.

Alright, well if anybody feels like sharing go for it. If there is anybody that is a big gamer and wants to get a game or something in through Xbox Live my gamertag is HookrsAndSpdrMn.

RED SOX VS. YANKEES (TEAM OF TEH TWO CENTURIES = 1900 TO 2100) - JUST THE FACTS

2009-11-09T17:51:15Z

[Stop. Please read this before proceeding... NANANANANA, STATMAN!... Done? Now read on.]

"Ladies and Gentlemen, the story you are about to read is true. Only the words have been changed to protect the innocent."

[Cue Dragnet intro music.]

Hi Fans,

I decided to create this post simply so that I could understand it, as opposed to complicatedly, which is hard to understand... I mean so that there is no more whining from either side of the so-called Red Sox Yankees rivalry. The numbers listed below are facts and not opinions:

YANKEEZ Numberz of teh RINGZ: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, (yo bra, what's after 21?!)... 22... 23... 24... 25... 26... 27... 27 RINGZ!!!! SPOONED!

RED SUX RINGZ: 1... 2... 3... 4... 5... 6... 7... 7 RINGZ! awfulolzomgesundheit!

NUMBRE OF YEARZ AS LARGEST PAYROLL IN MLB: ALL OF THEM!

AMOUNT COMMITTED TO 3 FREE AGENTS IN 2008-09 OFFSEASON TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES: $423.5 million ($161 mil C C Sandwichia, $180 mil Teixeira, $82.5 mil Burnett).

NUMBER OF SHINY TEETH IN DEREK JETER'S FACE: 33!

NUMBER OF SHINY STARS ON DEREK JETER'S REPORT CARD: 200!

NUMBER OF TIMES I FANTASISE ABOUT DEREK JETER IN TEH SHOWER: [redacted - the Mgt.]

NUMBER OF TIMES WE YANKEE FANS IGNORED THE GREATEST CHOKE IN PLAYOFF HISTORY: Every.

NUMBER OF TIMES WE YANKEE FANS IGNORED THE TEAM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TEH SEASON, WHEN THEY SUCKED: A lot.

NUMBER OF CURSES AND INSULTS UTTERED TO A RED SOX CLOSER AND HIS WIFE ON THE STREETS OF NEW YORK: 1,362 (Hat tip - Rasmussen polling.)

NUMBER OF NEW YORK'S FINEST RIOT POLICE MASSING ON THE FIELD TO PROTECT PLAYERS FROM AN ANGRY MOB IN THE 2004 ALCS: Several hundred.

How is this a rivalry?

In addition ungrammaticalcomma to the numbers listed above where'sacommawhenyouneedone the 2009 Yankees had the best record of any World Series winner this decade!! Which is much more awesome than sweeping two World Series, or coming back from being down 3-1 in one series, and 3-0 in another! Or competing with $70 million less in payroll!

Hats off to the WORLD CHAMPEEN New York Yankees, so that we can collect change from passersby and maybe one day afford a ticket to see them!

Poll

Should E.Coli plug his books here?

Red Sox versus Yankees (Team of the Decade = 2000 to 2009) - Just the Numbers

2009-11-09T06:47:29Z

Hi Fans,

I decided to create this post simply so that there is no more whining from either side of the so called Yankees - Red Sox rivalry. The numbers listed below are facts and not opinions.

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = 965-651 (.597) - BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL - Edge Yankees by 45 Games

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = 920-699 (.568) - SECOND BEST RECORD IN BASEBALL

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = Average Division Finish: 1.30 - Edge Yankees

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = Average Division Finish - 2.00 (Finished ahead of the Yankees 2 seasons 07 & 08)

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = Post Season Appearances: 9 out of 10 seasons (90%) - Edge Yankees

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = Post Season Appearances: 6 out of 10 Seasons (60%)

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = Division Championships: 8 out of 10 seasons (80%) - Edge Yankees

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = Division Championships: 1 out of 10 Seasons (10%)

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = AL Pennants: 4 out of 10 seasons (40%) - Edge Yankees

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = Al Pennants: 2 out of 10 Seasons (20%)

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = World Championships: 2 out of 10 seasons (20%) - Even

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = World Championships: 2 out of 10 seasons (20%) - Even

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = Head to Head: 97-83 (.539) - Edge Yankees by 14 Games

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = Head to Head: 83-97 (.461)

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = Head to Head Season Winner: 7-1-2 (7 series wins - 1 loss - 2 ties) - Edge Yankees

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = Head to Head Season Winner: 1-7-2 (Winning Record versus the Yankees 1 season 2004)

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = 100 Win Seasons: 4 out of 10 Seasons (40%) - Edge Yankees (02, 03, 04 & 09)

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = 100 Win Seasons: 0 out of 10 Seasons (00%)

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = Best Record in Baseball: 4 out of 10 Seasons (40%) - Edge Yankees (02, 03, 06 & 09)

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = Best Record in Baseball: 1 out of 10 Seasons (10%) - (07)

Yankees (2000 to 2009) = Least Wins During the Decade: 87 - Edge Yankees (00)

Red Sox (2000 to 2009) = Least Wins During the Decade: 82 - (01)

Derek Jeter's 14 year career:

13 Post Seasons

7 AL Pennants

5 World Championships

Red Sox: The last 80 Years - 2 World Championships

How is this a rivalry?

In addition, to the numbers listed above the 2009 Yankees had the best record of any World Series winner this decade!!

Hats off to the New York Yankees the best team of the decade and the best team in the history of baseball!!

What would it take to get Adrian Gonzalez? Part Two.

2009-11-09T02:17:44Z

As I listed in part 1, a possible package could be: Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick, Yamaico Navarro, Stolmy Pimentel, Adam Mills, Micheal Bowden.

This deal could be accepted, but if it doesn't, Theo could get more aggressive tossing in more players.

Casey Kelly, Jed Lowrie, Josh Reddick, Micheal Bowden, Adam Mills, and Ryan Westmoreland, are all players that the Padres could be interested in. If you compare each offer you can see, that the second is more appealing.

They are both 6 player offers
They both include Casey Kelly, Adam Mills, Michael Bowden, and Stolmy Pimmentel
Josh Reddick is more mayor league ready than Ryan Kalish
Jed Lowrie is more mayor league ready than Yamaico Navarro

If that is not good enough, the Red Sox should give up and consider Prince Fielder, Felix Hernandez, and a cheaper Roy Halladay.

Poll

Which player would you rather see the Red Sox get more, considering the cost?

What would it take to get Adrian Gonzalez?

2009-11-08T20:46:31Z

As you all know, the Red Sox front office drools over the idea of acquiring powerful first baseman, Adrian Gonzales. What is most impressive about Gonzalez is, not only that he hit 40 HR playing 81 games at PETCO Park, but that only 8 of those were pulled. Adrian has stated that he has never played in Fenway, but he has been told that he would "love it there"

Sure, having Jed Hoyer, former employee of Theo Epstein, as their new GM could help, and maybe having Kevin Towers, former GM of the Padres, as a West Coast scout could facilitate the trade even more. On Monday, GMs will meet in Chicago, and you can bet Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer will have more than a little talk.

In my opinion, in order for the Red Sox front office to get over losing Teixeira to the Yankees is by getting someone even better, and that's Adrian Gonzalez. A-Gone would be a great fit at Fenway because he is know for his opposite field power, and the Green Monster would help turn those deep fly-outs into doubles. But, why would San Diego trade their best player? They would certainly get a great package of prospects, and that gives them a better chance of contending.

So, what would it take? The Padres would want either Bard, Kelly, or Buchholz. The Red Sox would most likely part with Kelly. They should also add in Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick as a hitting outfielder. A shortstop in Yamaico Navarro, and at least three starters, Stolmy Pimentel, Adam Mills, Micheal Bowden. It certainly looks like a good package:

Casey Kelly, Ryan Kalish, Yamaico Navarro, Stolmy Pimentel, Adam Mills, and Micheal Bowden.

New Padres general manager Jed Hoyer and his former boss, Theo Epstein, have likely already brought this subject up once or twice. Starting tomorrow, they’ll be together again at the GM meetings in Chicago. Hoyer, in fact, was likely involved in talks Boston had with former Padres GM Kevin Towers on Gonzalez at the trading deadline. He also knows Boston’s talent and likely has in his head what four or five players he needs to get from Epstein to make a deal.

Poll

What would you be willing to give up to get A-Gone?

JT20 Dynasty League

2009-11-08T04:48:25Z

I have started started a free fun dynasty league in which each person takes control of a MLB roster & minor league system, drafts, signing free agents....

If this sounds interesting to you, go check out the league message board & league rules and sign up. There is no prize for the winner for each season, it is all just for fun, so join!

http://jt20.proboards.com/

thought people here would be interested sign up soon!

GMs need to be active on a daily basis so make sure you have time.

I have the Rangers and Red Sox available.

Hermida for Pierre? [Promoted FanPost]

2009-11-08T04:38:42Z

So, let me throw a small hypothetical out to ya.

I'm not the stat research guy around here. As it turns out, YOU are my stats research. So, this may be the stupidest idea ever, I dunno.

But, how do we all feel about a potential Hermida for Juan Pierre trade with the Dodgers? I know that Pierre hits left, so he wouldn't be a replacement for Bay's right handed power bat for the Monster, but still.

If Bay & Holliday get to the point where they aren't worth the money/years, maybe Juan Pierre at 2 years/$18.5mil isn't such a bad idea for left field. After that, Reddick is ready for left?

So the deal is, Hermida for Pierre straight up. We get a quality starter at a much reduced wage, the Dodgers get rid of a $9mil bench player and now have money they can use elsewhere.

Discuss.

Not in love with Jed

2009-11-07T16:25:29Z

Ok so all the talk about LF(keep bay!!) lets talk about ss!

-SS has been the sox biggest problem area since Nomar left

-maybe its just me but im not sold on Jed, he seems to be taking his sweet old time to progress (granteed his was injured but with the mfy as the champs we need somthing now!)

-Gonz is old and although did well the last part of the season, i dont trust he can have that kind of full year. plus he's expencive

-I think theo is due for a big trade. papelbon's name has been in rumors like crazy. set up a package deal pap, prospects, cash, maybe another everyday player for a great ss. hardy's gone but i still think he wouldnt of fixed the ss spot for the sox. we need someone better.....my vote? Hanley Ramirez lol....yes i know im crazy but i can dream cant i??

-any thoughts?

Didn't See Here Already- Peter Gammons on Josh beyond 2010, compared to Doc and CC

2009-11-07T04:12:30Z

Went up on major league trade rumors site.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=4628529&type=story

If link doesn't work:

Beckett is highly respected by the Boston staff. He is the gunslinger who relishes the role of the No. 1 starter. His between-start bullpen sessions are clinics in diligent perfection; he is accountable and always the toughest guy in the room.

But Beckett clearly is looking at the money the Yankees paid CC Sabathia ($161 million over seven years) and thinking he, too, can make between $15 million and $20 million. That will be a very tough call for the Red Sox, not much different from the call the Angels were required to make on John Lackey.

Sabathia was 28 on Opening Day 2009; Beckett will be 31 on Opening Day 2011. Sabathia is left-handed in a left-handed park, and he was a centerpiece for the opening of a spectacular new stadium. He was rationally signable because the Yankees had pared so much from their payroll. Sabathia did not disappoint, either, tying for the league lead in wins (19) and finishing fourth in ERA (3.37) and innings pitched (230), then winning three games in the postseason while allowing eight earned runs in 36 1/3 innings (1.98 ERA) with a 32-9 strikeout-walk ratio.

If Beckett at 30 can stay away from the back, oblique, elbow or shoulder ailments that have sidetracked him, he could win 20 games and pitch the Red Sox deep into October 2010. But tie on five years and that carries him through the age of 35. It's a very difficult call for the Red Sox.

As much as anyone who knows Beckett believes in him and his ability to rise to any occasion, there are some facts to consider:

• His earned-run average in his four years with Boston is 4.05.

• He has accepted the role of postseason warrior and was brilliant in both 2003 and 2007 as he led the Marlins and Red Sox to world championships, but in the past two postseasons he has one win, and in 21 innings he has more earned runs allowed (18) than strikeouts (17).

• In his past two regular seasons he is 29-16, 3.93.

• Include his great 2007 season (20-7, 3.27) and he is the third-winningest pitcher in baseball the past three seasons. The comparisons with the other two win leaders:

2007-09: Beckett vs. Sabathia vs. Halladay

Sabathia, Halladay and Beckett are the three winningest pitchers in baseball over the last three years.

Record ERA IP

Sabathia 55-25 3.08 724

Halladay 53-28 3.08 710 1/3

Beckett 49-23 3.71 587 1/3

Pitching in the AL East accounts for some of the ERA difference with Sabathia, but CC did pitch this past season in New York and was in pennant races in 2007 and 2008. The 136 2/3-inning difference is significant.

Is it possible that if the Red Sox find they and Beckett's agent, Michael Moye, are speaking two different languages they would consider trading Beckett? Sure, but it is highly unlikely. The argument for it is that they would move on with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz at the top of the rotation and prospect Casey Kelly a year from arrival, but what does that do for 2010, even if they were to sign a Ben Sheets or acquire a Javier Vazquez contract?

Would the Phillies trade Cole Hamels, big-time prospect Domonic Brown and another prospect for Beckett, then decide whether to sign Cliff Lee or Beckett before they're free agents next November? Probably not, as they refused to trade the 22-year-old Brown last July in a deal for Halladay. Would the Dodgers trade Chad Billingsley, Russell Martin and a top prospect for Beckett if the Red Sox made the finances right for L.A.? Maybe, maybe not, and there are concerns about Billingsley, as well as anything that might cost the Dodgers money. Texas won't part with its warehouse of minor league talent. Otherwise, the market may be thin.

So chances are unless there is some unexpected understanding, Beckett plays out 2010 and hits the free-agent market with Lee and Halladay. Red Sox fans will have, as little Tommy Rush from New Hampshire would say, no regrets, because Josh Beckett has brought presence, fire and a world championship to New England, and could do the same next season.

	Record	ERA	IP
Sabathia	55-25	3.08	724
Halladay	53-28	3.08	710 1/3
Beckett	49-23	3.71	587 1/3

Sox trade for Hermida

2009-11-05T23:05:12Z

According to Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel (and Ken Rosenthal has confirmed) that the Red Sox have traded minor league pitchers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez for Florida Marlins OF Jeremy Hermida.

An interesting deal, with the Sox picking up the once highly touted prospect Jeremy Hermida. Somewhat of a disappointment this year for the Marlins, Hermida, who plays both Right Field and Left Field, has averaged a lower-than-average .269 BA over his 5 major league seasons. Hermida is only 25, but even with time to grow, it seems as if the Marlins gave up on him.

A few more stats on Hermida : He's struckout over 100 times each full season he's played (only averaging about 130 games played a year), including a career high 138 in 2008. Career highs in both home runs and RBI's (which apparently doesn't matter to Theo) came in 2007, where he hit 18 and drove in 63. Last year he hit 13 and drove in 47.

Possibly could fill a Rocco Baldelli type role next year, or could just spend a year in our farm system. We shall see.

Poll

Your opinion on the Hermida trade?

Good. Let's see if he lives up to his potential.

20 votes

Bad. Waste of time, overrated at 2.55 million a year.

10 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

Regarding Lowrie, Some Analytical Questions, and, I Guess We'll See

2009-11-04T04:14:38Z

Aloha everyone,

To the regular contributors and authors, I offer my thanks. By lurking here for this season, your interactions have made it evident that there is more to a pitching performance beyond Ks, BBs, and ERA- WHIP is something I generally did not look at.

I've noticed that as the season wore on, some gave Nick Green credit for being a stopgap solution at short, a camp I place myself in. What has motivated me to reach out to you all is the idea I've seen floating around here that Jed Lowrie is someone Boston brass should not give up on just yet.

It isn't my intent to attack this line of thinking- after all, Pedro was written off to be too small to be a power pitcher- but for a community that generally does an excellent job of backing up claims and dreams with statistical data, my question is thus: what is it that makes Jed Lowrie so special, as opposed to an Aaron Bates?

This leads to my larger question. When it comes to evaluating players other than pitchers, where might I find a good tutorial/ statistical database? WAR and UZR are thrown around here, specifically in reference to Ellsbury as of late, and I feel like I'm coming back to school after being out sick for a month. Averages, BBs, Ks, and OBP all tell their performance at the plate. How does one analyze who's a better overall player between say Holliday and Bay?

Any insight is greatly appreciated.