Over the Monster: FanPosts

Didn't See Here Already- Peter Gammons on Josh beyond 2010, compared to Doc and CC

2009-11-07T04:12:30Z

Went up on major league trade rumors site.

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=4628529&type=story

If link doesn't work:

Beckett is highly respected by the Boston staff. He is the gunslinger who relishes the role of the No. 1 starter. His between-start bullpen sessions are clinics in diligent perfection; he is accountable and always the toughest guy in the room.

But Beckett clearly is looking at the money the Yankees paid CC Sabathia ($161 million over seven years) and thinking he, too, can make between $15 million and $20 million. That will be a very tough call for the Red Sox, not much different from the call the Angels were required to make on John Lackey.

Sabathia was 28 on Opening Day 2009; Beckett will be 31 on Opening Day 2011. Sabathia is left-handed in a left-handed park, and he was a centerpiece for the opening of a spectacular new stadium. He was rationally signable because the Yankees had pared so much from their payroll. Sabathia did not disappoint, either, tying for the league lead in wins (19) and finishing fourth in ERA (3.37) and innings pitched (230), then winning three games in the postseason while allowing eight earned runs in 36 1/3 innings (1.98 ERA) with a 32-9 strikeout-walk ratio.

If Beckett at 30 can stay away from the back, oblique, elbow or shoulder ailments that have sidetracked him, he could win 20 games and pitch the Red Sox deep into October 2010. But tie on five years and that carries him through the age of 35. It's a very difficult call for the Red Sox.

As much as anyone who knows Beckett believes in him and his ability to rise to any occasion, there are some facts to consider:

• His earned-run average in his four years with Boston is 4.05.

• He has accepted the role of postseason warrior and was brilliant in both 2003 and 2007 as he led the Marlins and Red Sox to world championships, but in the past two postseasons he has one win, and in 21 innings he has more earned runs allowed (18) than strikeouts (17).

• In his past two regular seasons he is 29-16, 3.93.

• Include his great 2007 season (20-7, 3.27) and he is the third-winningest pitcher in baseball the past three seasons. The comparisons with the other two win leaders:

2007-09: Beckett vs. Sabathia vs. Halladay

Sabathia, Halladay and Beckett are the three winningest pitchers in baseball over the last three years.

Record ERA IP

Sabathia 55-25 3.08 724

Halladay 53-28 3.08 710 1/3

Beckett 49-23 3.71 587 1/3

Pitching in the AL East accounts for some of the ERA difference with Sabathia, but CC did pitch this past season in New York and was in pennant races in 2007 and 2008. The 136 2/3-inning difference is significant.

Is it possible that if the Red Sox find they and Beckett's agent, Michael Moye, are speaking two different languages they would consider trading Beckett? Sure, but it is highly unlikely. The argument for it is that they would move on with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz at the top of the rotation and prospect Casey Kelly a year from arrival, but what does that do for 2010, even if they were to sign a Ben Sheets or acquire a Javier Vazquez contract?

Would the Phillies trade Cole Hamels, big-time prospect Domonic Brown and another prospect for Beckett, then decide whether to sign Cliff Lee or Beckett before they're free agents next November? Probably not, as they refused to trade the 22-year-old Brown last July in a deal for Halladay. Would the Dodgers trade Chad Billingsley, Russell Martin and a top prospect for Beckett if the Red Sox made the finances right for L.A.? Maybe, maybe not, and there are concerns about Billingsley, as well as anything that might cost the Dodgers money. Texas won't part with its warehouse of minor league talent. Otherwise, the market may be thin.

So chances are unless there is some unexpected understanding, Beckett plays out 2010 and hits the free-agent market with Lee and Halladay. Red Sox fans will have, as little Tommy Rush from New Hampshire would say, no regrets, because Josh Beckett has brought presence, fire and a world championship to New England, and could do the same next season.

	Record	ERA	IP
Sabathia	55-25	3.08	724
Halladay	53-28	3.08	710 1/3
Beckett	49-23	3.71	587 1/3

Sox trade for Hermida

2009-11-05T23:05:12Z

According to Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun Sentinel (and Ken Rosenthal has confirmed) that the Red Sox have traded minor league pitchers Hunter Jones and Jose Alvarez for Florida Marlins OF Jeremy Hermida.

An interesting deal, with the Sox picking up the once highly touted prospect Jeremy Hermida. Somewhat of a disappointment this year for the Marlins, Hermida, who plays both Right Field and Left Field, has averaged a lower-than-average .269 BA over his 5 major league seasons. Hermida is only 25, but even with time to grow, it seems as if the Marlins gave up on him.

A few more stats on Hermida : He's struckout over 100 times each full season he's played (only averaging about 130 games played a year), including a career high 138 in 2008. Career highs in both home runs and RBI's (which apparently doesn't matter to Theo) came in 2007, where he hit 18 and drove in 63. Last year he hit 13 and drove in 47.

Possibly could fill a Rocco Baldelli type role next year, or could just spend a year in our farm system. We shall see.

Poll

Your opinion on the Hermida trade?

Regarding Lowrie, Some Analytical Questions, and, I Guess We'll See

2009-11-04T04:14:38Z

Aloha everyone,

To the regular contributors and authors, I offer my thanks. By lurking here for this season, your interactions have made it evident that there is more to a pitching performance beyond Ks, BBs, and ERA- WHIP is something I generally did not look at.

I've noticed that as the season wore on, some gave Nick Green credit for being a stopgap solution at short, a camp I place myself in. What has motivated me to reach out to you all is the idea I've seen floating around here that Jed Lowrie is someone Boston brass should not give up on just yet.

It isn't my intent to attack this line of thinking- after all, Pedro was written off to be too small to be a power pitcher- but for a community that generally does an excellent job of backing up claims and dreams with statistical data, my question is thus: what is it that makes Jed Lowrie so special, as opposed to an Aaron Bates?

This leads to my larger question. When it comes to evaluating players other than pitchers, where might I find a good tutorial/ statistical database? WAR and UZR are thrown around here, specifically in reference to Ellsbury as of late, and I feel like I'm coming back to school after being out sick for a month. Averages, BBs, Ks, and OBP all tell their performance at the plate. How does one analyze who's a better overall player between say Holliday and Bay?

Any insight is greatly appreciated.

The difference between the Red Sox and Yankees...

2009-11-03T01:17:54Z

This just occurred to me as I watched former unfrozen caveman center fielder single to right:

The Yankees recruit and sign the best players from every team in baseball, including the Red Sox.

The Red Sox recruit and sign the best players from every team in baseball except the Yankees.

And that is the difference between the Wild Card and winning the East.

Jeter or A-Rod at third? Rivera for Pap? I know I feel like anyone who has worn the pinstripes is somehow tainted forever, but maybe I need to get over it.

Ellsbury's Inexplicable RngR

2009-11-01T03:01:23Z

For those uninformed: Jacoby Ellsbury is a godawful center fielder, according to UZR, Fangraphs' fielding statistic of choice. UZR has Ells at 16.5 runs below average in 153 games at center in '09, making him one of 3 CF with a UZR below -10.0, the others being Dexter Fowler and Vernon Wells. Ellsbury's noodle arm didn't exactly help him out here, but the main reason Jacoby's UZR was so poor was his -14.0 RngR, or Range Runs Above Average. The first time I saw that number, I was pretty much shocked; how could such a fast guy have such poor range?

UZR tends to have really weird fluctuations; observe Raul Ibanez's UZR in LF go from okay to good to bad to absolutely horrible to good again. It's also worth noting that Ellsbury posted a positive RngR in 66 games at center last year. So, is Ellsbury really this bad at center, or can we chalk this up to wonky UZR data/Jason Bay having zero range/Julio Lugo?

When Free Agency comes, Jason Bay Should Not Leave

2009-10-30T17:37:22Z

Culminating with the disappointment of being swept by the Angles in the ALDS, Boston's season was tumultuous to say the least. For an injury plagued team whos production was inconsistent, the Red Soxs had one player who never seemed to falter.

That player was left fielder Jason Bay. Aquired in 2008 from Pittsburgh, Bay has made fans forget Manny being Manny doning Dodger blue. Fans may gripe at his .280 career average, but this is a player who has drove in over 100 runs and blasted over 30 homeruns the past two years. Bay has quietly become one of Boston's biggest stars. He goes about baseball with a work man like attitude letting his numbers, not his words, speak for him.

Jason Bay is one of the cogs that keep the Soxs running. His contributions are less about quality and more about consitincy. Being an unrestricted free agent, Jason Bay has begun to mull over his options and promises to keep an open mind. Wisely, Theo Epstein seems to have already decided where he would like the Left Fielder to be come opening day next April. "We want the relationship to continue, so we'll see if it does" Epstein said earlier this month after the Soxs were swept in the first round by the Angels. Bay on the other hand wants to test the market, but realizes Boston has been a good fit thus far. "If something comes along that makes sense [with the Red Sox], I'd have a tough time saying no."

Come this offseason the Soxs will have to reevaluate where they are heading as a team, but one thing is for sure, Bay should be apart of it.

Poll

Will Jason Bay be in a Red Soxs uniform next year?

Brad Mills hired by Astros

2009-10-27T20:28:15Z

Well that sucks. I was planning on him being our next manager. Thieving astros. so maybe Jonnynyc's plan below might be very relevant now. But seriously, our managerial guys are dropping like flies. luckily theo and tito aren't going anywhere. Maybe i should say more stuff to fill up the 75 words minimum. Whatever, the bench coach is pretty useless anyway. Nah I don't really think that. But they've probably got a bunch of good candidates already. discuss

Varitek as Bench Coach in '10?

2009-10-27T20:07:46Z

In some ways I see Mills heading to Houston as a chance to solve the Tek situation rather well.

He still brings value to the club in several ways - it's just that none of those ways are behind the dish or at the plate anymore.

If the Sox don't pick up his option, but rather offer him a position on Tito's bench you still get his preparation, leadership, ability to call a game and ability to work with the pitchers.

I'm not sure if he'd be ready to hang up the spikes yet, but I would like this move for the Sox.

Not sure if Kotteras is what you'd want as a back up or that Brown or Wagner would be much better, I'd think you can bring in a cheap experienced Vet to compete in spring ball though and gain defense over Tek, if nothing else for '10.

After LF - it's Shortstop - What's the best option for the Sox at the 6

2009-10-26T20:48:08Z

From the '09 Roster we have 3 candidates:

Alex Gonzalez won't be getting a $6m option picked up

Nick Green is a utility player at best

Jed Lowrie needs to stay healthy for a full season, and prove himself at the MLB level.

Outside the organization, the FA market is weak - it would be more likely to trade for a mid level SS:

J.J. Hardy and Bobby Crosby are two names I've heard could be moved and not cost too much. Crosby is a serious injury risk and both are somewhat inconsistent.

Jack Wilson can't be too expensive to pry out from the M's either - though given his age this is a short term solve.

It also seems the Angels settled on Aybar @ SS, perhaps Brandon Wood, could be available. Though this is not a proven answer it does provide a potential power bat at a key position. Unclear what the cost of acquiring him would be though relief pitching would seem to be an area of interest for the Angels.

Thoughts on the best option here? I know there are a lot of Hardy supports out there, what's the right amount to give up for him and is he a long term answer?

43+Back Surgery= Lots of question marks for Wakefield

2009-10-23T23:38:29Z

With Wakefield having back surgery earlier this week, do not expect the results to be stellar.

Wakefield did less to impress in 09. His ERA, AVG, WHIP, and SO all fell from the 2008 season. What is even more worrisome is that after a 2007 season that saw Wakefield pitch 189 innings, in two years that stat has dropped to 129 (going from 31 games to 21).

The fact is Tim is getting up there in age.

While his productivity has been above average, fans have to worry he will not be able to hold up in 2010. Wakefield is 43, not 23. Recovering from any surgery requires a load of work just to get back in shape, let alone go out there 20+ games and get batters out.

The solution? It may in fact be to turn the 5th starter into a middle reliever. It is not as if Wakefield has been an ace whos production is invaluable, Boston should allow the knuckleballer to come back in the 2010 season with a less prominent role that would give the 43 year old more rest.

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=123801

Poll

Where is Wakefield better suited in 2010

Starter

27 votes

Reliever

7 votes

34 votes | Poll has closed

Is Fukudome a good baseball player?

2009-10-23T21:16:49Z

First of all let me put this straight: I'm just exploring the Red Sox other options if they don't succeed to resign Bay or land Holiday, a plan B if you will.

This plan B has to be Financially sound AND compensate the loss of power that the departure of Jay Bay will generate by a tighter defense and a similar OBP.

I tried to look at Fukudome at the 3 aspects of the game: Hitting, fielding and running. So let's try to break this baby down:

Hitting:

Let's give a look at Kosuke's (I love those Nippon names) line versus RHP: .270/.387/.828 with a sexy .91 BB/K ratio!

But considering that 2 seasons is a relatively small sample size, let's forget about the results (the avg/OBP/OPS) and focus on the process: plate discipline/batted balls/Isolated power.

When you look deeper into those numbers, you'll be impressed by his plate discipline: He swings at 17.8% at pitches out of the zone, that's almost JD Drew-like plate discipline (15.3% O-Swing%). And how 'bout them batted balls? Again, the numbers are impressive: 24% LD (4th in MLB) 46.2% GB and 30% FB.

The power is nothing to write home about (I love those expressions you have in English) but decent at .142 ISO.

So to recapitulate: You have a hitter who ks as much as he walks (excellent Plate discipline), hits a lot line drives and has a decent power. that's a good to very good hitter.

Base running:

Fangraph's speed score (a 4 component metric) gives Fukodome an above avg Spd at 4.5 almost the same score averaged by JD Drew (a good base runner) during his 3 years as a Red Sock.

Fielding:

DD mentioned that Fukodome was worth 4.2 WAR in his 2 seasons, that's not very good but when you look deeper into those numbers you'll find out that: His 2009 2.4 WAR is the result of bad fielding (-2.0 UZR) not his batting: So he's a bad fielder? No, not in the corner OF where he's 18.0 career UZR in 181 games. But this year, due to the Milton bradley signing, he's been confined to CF duties.

So he's a glove upgrade compared to Bay.

I'll end up this with an other post of the honorable Dave Camron about Fukodome San. I hope I added another option worth exploring. Because I think that a Jackson or Kapler/Fukudome platoon in LF is a good (maybe not great) option until the talent in minors flourish or another option (The rays moving Upton or Texas trading Cruz) present it self.

Early October exit could mean changes in the clubhouse

2009-10-23T18:02:12Z

A roster that suddenly is filled with question marks could see changes by next May

There was no hiding it, the spark that had ignited the championship runs of 04 and 07 was missing this past year. A fast start (most notably 8-0 against the yanks) had Red Sox Nation thinking pennant. The team had jumped to the early division lead despite the struggles of Big Papi and a depleted starting rotation. Jason Bay and Kevin Youkilis did their best to hide the defencies of the team.

Their efforts held only for so long as Matsuzaka headed for the DL and Beckett suddenly had a homerun proble. Their division lead quickly decimated as the Soxs looked up at a 8.5 lead by the rival Yankees and suddenly into a wild card battle with the Rangers. The boys in red managed to get their act together in September to make it to October.

And while a team has the ability to suffer up and downs during the regular season, their weaknesses show ten fold in the playoffs.

The Angels had been a team who Boston had dominated in recent years, making a first round battle with the Halos just another series. But this soxs team ran into the problems that had plagued the team all season, a poor rotation (with the exception of Lester surprisingly) and an inability to hit in tough spots ultimately doomed the soxs to their sweep.

The question now is, how does the perennial underdog (as their fans would like to believe) soar back to greatness. With Wakefield having Back surgery a priority must be put on pitching. Shipping Lowe and Smoltz has depleted anny depth the Soxs had at the position and with Bucholtz still not establishing himself, Boston may have to look to free agency. The most coveted target may indeed come from the team that swept the soxs in the playoffs, John Lackey. The 31 year old has proved to be consistent and will come into a rotation where he does not need to establish himself as an ace so long as Beckett and Lester remain at their current stature.

Offense is another obstacle to tackle. Simply put, the Red Soxs are aging at key positions. While the front office secured their backstop with the aquisition of Martinez, 3rd base could become a problem if Lowell can not produce. While Lowrie looks fine at shortstop, Boston may need to consider adding a first basement to complement Youkilis.

The Red Soxs are in a sense stuck in purgatory. Their future seems uncertain as they took a step down in recent years, but could be primed for a run in October with the right moves.

Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox stats

http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4587658

Boston Red Sox roster

Poll

Are the Red Soxs primed for a rebound?

yes

22 votes

no

38 votes

60 votes | Poll has closed

Before for we get to a Platoon in LF...lets go on a Holliday

2009-10-23T15:54:09Z

Thanks to some of the fine people here on OtM, I've come around a bit to look into UZR, WAR, etc and get a longer view of players value.

That leads me to the position that Holliday should be the #1 priority for the Sox, even if it becomes a bidding war. Holliday is similar to healthier J.D. Drew in that he provides the team with solid all around value for his position.

He can be as dangerous or more dangerous a hitter in the Sox line up then Bay.

He improves the defense in LF.

He is the best LF option this year, and arguably over the next 3 yrs.

There is not a lot of power in the Sox organization right now, and not a lot of power bats in the MLB who play plus OF defense.

So if you can acquire the best LF option for this year and the next few, what is that worth?

Is $18-20m over 5 yrs too much to consider? When you consider Bay likely will be around $13-15m for 4, and that likely his last two years will carry significant decline from an already lesser team value - I'm not sure it is.

If you sign Holliday, your high this year but have a lot coming off the books next year. I believe the Sox can sustain that. You lose draft picks, but would gain them back when Bay signs. You are taking the best bat off the market in a position of need of both the Angels and Yankees.

So I guess the question is at what point does Holliday become too expensive for what he brings?

Platooning the LF II

2009-10-23T00:31:42Z

Our friend bloodysock04 had the platooning idea that I found interesting, I've done some research to find an ideal combo with of course, the salary consideration and the defense and look what I found:

Player	PA	BB%	K%	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fukudome vs RHP	536	15.7 %	17.1 %	.270	.387	.441	.828
Kapler vs LHP	174	14.9 %	13.2 %	.276	.379	.552	.931
Bay	638	15 %	30 %	.267	.384	.537	.921

When it comes to defense Kapler/Fukudome are a huge upgrade compared to the butcher from Trail, BC: Fukudome UZR when playing in the corner OF (although he's mainly used in CF where he ain't good) is 8.0 and Kapler UZR is 6.2! It's day and night I said :)

Ok, now we know that Fukudome is still under contract for 2 more years at $ 13 millions in 2010 and $ 13.5 millions for 2011 so a trade has to be made with the Cubbies: IMO a package around Bowden, an Illinois native FWIW, could swing that deal for Jim Hendry: He's looking for payroll relief (their payroll is very high at $134,809 Millions) and they need some arms in the rotation and the BP (Delcarmen?).

Kapler could come cheap (1-2 millions range) so you'll have a LFer with better defense, less power but who Ks less and put basically the same OBP numbers for a short commitment (1 and 2 years respectively).

Add to that, that we'll be fixing the need for the bench/4th OFer due to the departure of Rocco Baldelli for basically the price tag that comes with Bay resigning!!

Thoughts? And what package it would take in your opinion to have an extended Japanese connection in Boston?

Hoyer in SD: Help or Hindrance

2009-10-22T22:24:11Z

As it appears almost certain that Hoyer will become the new GM of the Padres, I began to wonder what effect that will have on a potential trade for Adrian Gonzalez.

Help:

Familiarity with Boston front office
Ease of communication
May feel he owes something to Theo and Boston
Carryover of rose colored view of Boston prospects
Does not share same personal connection to Gonzalez

Hurt

Fans may complain that any deal is done a favor (may have to get more from Boston than other teams to overcompensate)
Is aware of all the flaws of Boston players and prospects
Gonzalez's strengths are valued equally by Hoyer

Boston sports has recently been on both sides of the familiarity of GMs. The KG trade is obviously a product of Ainge and McHale's friendship as the Celtics was not the best offer on the table. On the other hand, the Patriots trade of Matt Cassell to KC was below market and done quicker than necessary. So despite what they may say, friendships and favors do exist in sport front offices.
So what do you think? Is Hoyer being hired by San Diego a good thing or not?

Poll

Is Hoyer working for the Padres a good thing?

Yes, the friendship will allow us to get Gonzalez easier.

9 votes

No, Hoyer will require a higher price in order to save face.

4 votes

The good and bad will balance each other out, making us neutral.

7 votes

20 votes | Poll has closed

Platooning LF?

2009-10-22T18:29:28Z

Listening to Theo's interview on WEEI today got me thinking:

The Sox aren't going to sign Jayson Bay for the money he's looking for (15-16 millions for 4-5 years) because of his defense and the fact that he's not in his "pre-prime" years.
There's a gap talent wise in term of prospects for 1-2 years.
Theo's REALLY dislike Scott Boras: A Matt Holiday signing is very unlikely.

If you look at the talent pool in the FA OFers market, what you see is discouraging: Abreu, Figgins (he played the OF), Dye, Crisp, Kapler...So why not take a flyer on platooning LF like the Rays did with the Gabes? You sign Crisp (If healthy) and Kapler or Connor Jackson who, because if illness, may not be tendered by the D-Backs for 1 year contract and you platoon them in the OF?

What do you think?

I got banned from Halos Heaven

2009-10-21T21:06:48Z

for this:

Are you guys aware

that the yankees won 10-1?? no amount of bad calls makes up for CC Sabathia dominating your lineup. and the bad calls went against both teams. it is so annoying to come on here after every game you lose and you blame it on umpiring. i cant believe i’m defending the yankees.

and this, which i think really did it:

i'm speaking more to rev halofan

every time you lose, he brings up the umpiring. even today, in a blowout. its just not interesting or close to being based in reality.

i am kind of defending the yanks, in that i’m saying that they won fair and square, and not due to the blown calls. all the umpiring gaffes did was make me laugh, they didnt affect the outcome.

haha, its obvious he wasnt spitting (another crazy thing rev has said) i was saying yes as a joke, as i think most people who said yes were.

i mean, i was actually trying to be fair. i just have a bit of a seething hatred for the angels lately which has only been perpetuated by the stories they write on there. they're a little quick to pull the trigger on the bans over there, no?

2010 Do's and Don't's for the Sox

2009-10-21T20:02:50Z

95 wins is a good season, though not great. This was a team that never really hit on all cylinders and a lot of that to me was due to the offense never producing consistently in the middle of the order. Injuries, slumps, age, etc. - lot of factors here which hurt things, but the reality was a lack of power cost the Sox. A few do's and don'ts for the Sox, plus a couple WEEI caller like trade options:

Do's:

Resign Bay.

Holliday is 1A or B depending on how you look at it in the market but he's never played in Boston, didn't fair well in the AL earlier this year and unless he's cheaper by $5m or more really doesn't offer anything more then Bay provides.

Listen to Trade offers for Papelbon & Lowell.

Paps value should be quite high, and why I don't really like the idea of giving up a proven closer he is likely the best chip the Sox will have and is a guy then may not resign anyway.

Lowell is coming of a decent season, he should be much better in '10 a year removed from the injury. He'd provide veteran leadership, solid defense at 3rd and could DH for a team. Including him in a deal with Paps plus some prospects could work nicely for a few teams.

Do Not:

Don't sign Figgins, Abreau, or Damon.

Damon and Abreau should be DHs, figgins is solid defensively but does nothing you need offensively in Boston next year. Need power at some level from LF - if it's not Bay or Holiday look into trades for DeJesus or possibly Ankiel.

Don't trade for A-Gon

Great young 1st basemen yes. But if you are going to give up a large portion of the farm for a bat, do if for H.Ramirez - a similarly great bat in with a much greater VORP.

WEEI-caller type trades:

- Paps, Lowell, Bowden, Paps 2 + single A quality arm for ... King Felix.

- Buchholz, Bowden, Delcarmen, Lowrie for ... Jose Reyes

- Paps, Buchholz, Lowell, Paps 2 for ... Hanley Ramirez

Looking at Payroll

2009-10-15T23:45:40Z

By now we all know that this team had weaknesses and I'm sure everyone out there has some solution in mind that will bring us our next World Series. But before we all go crazy talking about free agent targets for the offseason let's remember that there is always at least one thing getting in the way of any free agent signing or trade: money. So, let's take a look the payroll situation so we'll have an idea how much money Theo will be able toss around this winter.

Cot's Contracts has a great spreadsheet of our current 2010-2014 payroll obligations and complete contract data for every Sox player (for those who do not know, Cot's is the best source for anything contract-related.)

The Sox already have almost $109M committed for next year, assuming Tek stays on for $3M, Wake stays for $4M and we do not pick up Saito's ($5.5M) or Alex Gonzalez's ($6M) options. Unfortunately, that number does include the $9M+ that we'll be paying the great Julio Lugo.

However it does not include the raises we'll be handing out in arbitration cases, so let's take a look at those guys:

Papelbon ($6.25M)+$2.75M: Despite his most recent failure, Papelbon just finished a great season and will be in line for a raise. Fangraphs usually uses a 40/60/80 guideline when making predictions in arbitration cases, meaning a guy earns 40% of his value in the first year of arbitration and so on. This would mean he is due to make about $9M next year, so a raise of $2.75M.

Okajima: +$3M: He has been solid for three straight years so he will get a raise. $3M seems about right.

RamRam: +$2.5M: After two great years in the majors, he'll also see a raise.

MDC: +$1.5M: His last 2 months probably cost him $1M.

Casey Kotchman ($2.88M)+$.5M : He lost his starting role this season, but we rarely see guys lose money in arbitration, so we should expect at least a small raise. I'm not certain he'll be around anyway, so I'll just leave him out for now.

These are all rough estimates, but we can expect to spend right around $10M keeping these guys. That puts us at $119M for 15 guys. Throw in the minimum contracts of Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Clay Buccholz and we are at $120M for 18 players. That is a lot of money and certainly does not give us much payroll flexibility for this coming season, but the good news is that they have most positions covered. Barring any drastic moves, we basically need a starting left-fielder, a bench, a back end of the bullpen and hopefully a SS. (This also does not take into account the team's plans for Michael Bowden and Junichi Tazawa, who I would think we will use as rotational depth and start them in AAA.)

The other thing everyone should note is that there is a lot of money coming off the books in 2011. We only have $50M committed for that season so there is flexibility going into the future. Given that, I could see the Sox taking a temporary bump in payroll up to $140-150M, but after signing a LFer, we would basically be there. So for everyone out there thinking about big moves, it might be a little hard given the current payroll situation. We should expect one of Jason Bay/Matt Holliday then some cheap depth moves. Given our roster construction, we just do not have room to be doing much else. (Though a trade could change everything.)

Is Rev Halofan for real?

2009-10-14T02:05:47Z

While I may be a passionate Yankee fan (from Amherst, no less), I spend a fair amount of my time perusing Boston sports media such as your blog here, Dirt Dogs, WEEI, etc. And even though I don't always agree with what Red Sox fans have to say, your opinions are generally pretty level-headed and based in some semblance of fact.

As you probably know all too well, my Yanks are gearing up for their ALCS match-up with the Angels this Friday. In order to better prepare, I decided to take the next step and become a member of Halos Heaven, the LAA Sports Blog Nation affiliate. Now, I'm more often than not pretty impressed with the coverage SB provides for each team, but... what's the deal with Rev Halofan (the head blogger at Halos Heaven)?

The guy seems a little off his rocker when it comes to following his team. Does he ever provide objective analysis or will he continue to refer to CC Sabathia as that "fat guy" from New York that doesn't even belong on the same field as "the great John Lackey?" Most SB head bloggers maintain some sort of professionalism when putting together posts, but this guy doesn't seem like he belongs in the same league as any of the guys from our site, or Atheltics nation, or your very own Randy Booth.

So please, can anyone tell what this guy's deal is?