Over the Monster - All PostsBut Can He Pitch?https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/32934/otm-fv.jpg2024-03-18T10:13:58-04:00http://www.overthemonster.com/rss/current/2024-03-18T10:13:58-04:002024-03-18T10:13:58-04:00Red Sox News & Links: Brayan Bello to Start Opening Day?
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<figcaption>Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Plus, an injury to the bullpen</p> <p id="Z1VWGw">Hey, everyone, it’s <em>“this is a really fun group of guys, everyone gets along great”</em> season! Spring Training provides few things that are more reliably fun than the stories about players bonding and coming together as a team. This is true even though these stories are written every year, even about clubhouses that end up proving as toxic as the mouth of the Mystic River. This year, we’ve got closest-to-the-pin outings, trips to TopGolf, and meals at Trevor Story’s house.<a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/03/16/sports/red-sox-team-bonding/"> (Peter Abraham, Boston Globe)</a></p>
<p id="gTWHSR">But, of course, the most fun thing about Spring Training is following the progress of the guy who you hope will be the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a>’ next breakout player. This year there’s not question that that guy is Ceddanne Rafaela. <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/03/16/sports/ceddanne-rafaela-red-sox-spring-breakout-braves/">(Julian McWilliams, Boston Globe)</a></p>
<p id="MsD6F7">Next year, will that be Nick Yorke? As a prospect he lives in the shadow of the big three, but he’s impressed in camp. <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/03/17/sports/red-sox-spring-training-nick-yorke/">(Julian McWilliams, Boston Globe)</a></p>
<p id="Gv7NUr">Trevor Story can’t really be the red Sox next breakout player, given that he’s an established MLB veteran who’s already been an All-Star. But it’s true that he has yet to have much success with the Sox, so if he returns to form, it could feel like a breakout of sorts. <a href="https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/03/on-red-sox-team-with-many-questions-trevor-story-poised-to-provide-answers-mcadam.html">(Sean McAdam, MassLive)</a></p>
<p id="vjkShu">Speaking of breakouts, Nick Pivetta made FanGraphs list of breakout pitchers for 2024, after Bello made the cut last year. <a href="https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2024-booms-and-busts-pitchers/">(Dan Symborski, FanGraphs)</a> The piece includes this extremely promising chart: </p>
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<p id="A1r4W7">But right now it’s Brayan Bello, not Pivetta, who appears to be lined up to be the Sox’ Opening Day (err, night) starter. <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnesn.com%2F2024%2F03%2Fdid-red-sox-tip-hand-at-who-will-pitch-opening-day-vs-mariners%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.overthemonster.com%2F2024%2F3%2F18%2F24104722%2Fred-sox-news-links-brayan-bello-to-start-opening-day-chris-murphy-injury" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">(Gio Rivera, NESN)</a></p>
<p id="XFHQLd">The worst part of Spring Training is, of course, the injuries, especially those that hit the pitchers. Now it’s Chris Murphy, the young reliever who looked poised to crack the opening day bullpen, who is getting an MRI on his elbow. <a href="https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/03/red-sox-lefty-to-undergo-mri-on-elbow-monday-worry-of-course.html">(Christopher Smith, MassLive)</a></p>
<p id="KCuqgT">And save this one for your lunch break: a giant behind-the-scenes look at the Sox development academy in the Dominican. <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F5337226%2F2024%2F03%2F14%2Fred-sox-dominican-republic-academy-inside-tour%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.overthemonster.com%2F2024%2F3%2F18%2F24104722%2Fred-sox-news-links-brayan-bello-to-start-opening-day-chris-murphy-injury" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">(Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic)</a></p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/18/24104722/red-sox-news-links-brayan-bello-to-start-opening-day-chris-murphy-injuryDan Secatore2024-03-18T09:03:50-04:002024-03-18T09:03:50-04:00The Red Sox Must Reduce Their Proximity to the Tension Point
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<figcaption>Photo by Jim Davis/The Boston Globe via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Just playing meaningful baseball in September would go a long way in restoring the relevancy of the Red Sox.</p> <p id="n1zatz">In the 14-year stretch between 1998 and 2011, the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> were box office entertainment. Part of this had to do with them being at intersection of the greatest rivalry in the history of the sport and an 86-year-old curse. And of course, from there, things were further escalated by perhaps the most theatric two-year saga sports has ever offered, in 2003 and 2004. (Epic doesn’t even begin to describe what transpired those Octobers.)</p>
<p id="3kmYAn">But looking back on this era with a couple of decades of perspective, something else was also happening here. Something that should be obvious on the surface, but also played a pivotal role in prolonging the region’s obsession with the Sox beyond the climax of a rivalry. Something that’s worth reviewing to realize just how special these times were, as well as to underscore how much we’ve missed this simple ingredient since. </p>
<p id="KpIsvT">Quite simply, the Red Sox spent a decade and a half living on the playoff bubble. </p>
<p id="bMLvJ2">If we define the “tension point” of any baseball team’s season as the number of wins it takes to grab the last playoff spot available to them, then that number pretty much defined the Red Sox during this time period. </p>
<p id="8C8me6">In the 14-year stretch I’ve outlined here, only four teams (three division winners and one wild card) made the playoffs in each league. This meant the Red Sox, in their never ending quest to catch and take down the <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a>, were almost always chasing the final ticket to October. This left the tension constantly ratcheted up to a ridiculously high pitch both within individual seasons, and across the era itself. Fans were always lured in by both the burning desire to catch the hated Yankees and the terror of possibly falling just one more spot in the standings and out of the playoff picture. </p>
<p id="psHB94">For more detail, I’ve created a chart comparing the Red Sox record with the tension point in each of these seasons. <em>(Sometimes the tension point is the AL East title if the Wild Card came from another division and that number exceeded the amount of wins it took to win the division. This usually happens in the AL Central, but it has happened in the AL East a few times.) </em></p>
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<p id="cGNAxx">A few things to point out here: </p>
<p id="X8tPUq">First, the Red Sox were the specific tension point team as the Wild Card representative an amazing seven times during this stretch. Again, there was only one Wild Card during this entire era, so they were the last team in the dance in exactly half of those seasons. I can’t stress this enough! </p>
<p id="L6k3wK">Secondly, if you look at the other seven years in which they were not the specific tension point team, their proximity to the tension point was still incredibly close in three of them. I’m talking one or two games in either direction in 2000, 2007, and 2011. This meant high stakes drama extended all the way down the stretch of these seasons as well.</p>
<p id="Htbk1b">Finally, if we look at it from the opposite perspective, only two seasons (2001 and 2006) left the Red Sox more than six games from the tension point. And if we want to dig into it even further (and you know I do) both of those years featured the Red Sox in a playoff spot into the month of August. <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?date=2001-08-06">As late as August 6th, 2001</a>, the Red Sox were 17 games over .500, just 2.5 games behind the Yankees, had the third best record in the AL, and occupied the Wild Card spot. Then, <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/?date=2006-08-02">on August 2nd, 2006,</a> the Red Sox were 22 games over .500, tied with the Yankees for the division lead, and once again occupied the Wild Card spot. In other words, despite the final results of those two seasons, they were very much in it for well over 100 games, and only lost touch with the tension point at the very end of those seasons. </p>
<p id="LKbxEy">This means that for nearly a decade and a half, the Red Sox played incredibly meaningful baseball deep into the summer EVERY, SINGLE YEAR!!!</p>
<p id="HXekUh">And then, as we’re all aware, things changed. </p>
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<cite>Photo by John McDonnell/The Washington Post via Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="7jUr4c">The collapse of the 2011 Red Sox wasn’t just about the astonishing unravelling of that specific team. It was, as it turned out, the end of the greatest run of relevancy the Red Sox have ever produced. </p>
<p id="oFQuBz">It was the last season of Terry Francona’s tenure with the Red Sox. It was the last season of Theo Epstein as part of the front office before he left for the <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a>. It was the last season of Jonathan Papelbon in a Red Sox uniform, and it was the last season of Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek’s careers. Truly the end of an era. </p>
<p id="MWDpQ9">What’s followed is a completely different version of the Boston Red Sox. One where the only thing they have in common with the iteration that came before it is the number of championships they’ve won. But beyond those two championships, it’s almost hard to believe we’re even watching the same franchise. </p>
<p id="k6m9ji"><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/14/24070397/that-boycott-of-fenway-park-isnt-going-to-work-red-sox-fsh-john-henry-liverpool">I mentioned this last week as it came up in the Fenway boycott discussion</a>, but do you realize the Red Sox lead all of baseball in last place finishes over the last twelve seasons? For a team with their resources, that’s embarrassing and absurd! </p>
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<p id="ljh9SI">As anybody with a pulse can probably deduce, last place finishes tend to leave you pretty far away from baseball’s tension point. </p>
<p id="jKYnG2">But something else very important happened after the 2011 season. Something that has little to do with the Red Sox at all. MLB added a second Wild Card team, meaning that in many, but not all seasons, the tension point win total would be lowered. </p>
<p id="0J1u7J">And here’s where this becomes so critical to the Red Sox and the feeling that their games just mean less than they did before. Not only have the Red Sox finished in last place six times and failed to keep up with the lower bar MLB set for the playoffs, but they’ve also finished well above the tension point in many of the seasons they’ve done well. </p>
<p id="1Xffav">Somehow, the Red Sox won the division four times in the 2012 through 2023 stretch compared to just once in the 1998 through 2011 stretch, and in at least two of those times, the Red Sox cleared the tension point by such a wide margin, the games in September lost some meaning as fans were kind of just waiting around for October to start. </p>
<p id="dfk6QU">For a detailed look at how this era has gone, here’s the same table as the one from 1998 though 2011 above, only this time, it’s for 2012 through 2023: </p>
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<p id="FCvvP9">We’re all over the map here! </p>
<p id="exR2A5">If the previous era of Red Sox baseball was defined by the way they consistently kept close proximity to the tension point (maybe better than any team in the history of the sport), this more recent era has been mostly defined by their avoidance of the tension point by both over and (more frequently) undershooting it. And perhaps even more amazingly, they’ve done this in an era where MLB is adding more Wild Cards, which should and has brought more teams closer to the tension point win total in the majority of years. Those teams have just rarely been the Red Sox.</p>
<p id="R9ISNC">To clean this up, here’s the same table as above, but this time reorganized by proximity to the tension point. Seasons above the tension point are on top. Seasons below the tension point are on the bottom: </p>
<p id="herGXi"><em>(Note: I’m throwing out 2020 for obvious reasons. Not only did MLB reduce the schedule to a measly 60 games and allow a vomit inducing number of teams into the playoffs, but the world was in crisis, and baseball took a back seat to other events. So even though the Red Sox technically only missed the mark by five games, it might as well have been a thousand.)</em></p>
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<p id="lGF1yH">I’ve highlighted in green the only three seasons in which the Red Sox came within six games of the tension point. Remember, in the 1998-2011 stretch, they did this 12 out of 14 times, and the other two times they didn’t (2001 and 2006) were only because they completely collapsed in the final 60 games, which provided their own brand of old school Red Sox drama. </p>
<p id="L5Lg6q">If you want to tighten things even further, in 10 of the 14 seasons in the 1998 through 2011 stretch, the Red Sox were within two games of the tension point. Since then, that’s only happened once. But on that note, look at which season provided that drama. </p>
<p id="N7Yjfv">Why was that 2021 season so special? Why did the ballpark get louder during that playoff run than it did at any point during the 2018 <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> buzzsaw tour? And why did TV ratings spike so high that fall amid a stretch of seasons where the Red Sox have been less relevant than most of us can ever remember? </p>
<p id="D2Iarq">It’s the proximity to the tension point! The 2021 Red Sox were the 1998 through 2011 Red Sox briefly reappearing; like an old friend you haven’t seen in years. The 2021 Red Sox were a reminder that the best drama in baseball builds over time and then explodes. First, it gains momentum in September, where all the games leave fans and players on edge, and then, if you make it through the mayhem machine, it spews across the October night as far as your team can take it. </p>
<p id="puJyBP">It may not provide instant dopamine on the first weekend of September, but keep stacking high tension meaningful games on top of each other, and eventually, the temperature reaches a boiling point. </p>
<p id="Kdbagv">This, other than a freak World Series run, is what the Red Sox need as much as anything else. A surprisingly close pass to the tension point to remind the region how fun and addictive baseball can be when you reside close to the fire. There are few things better in all of sports than getting to September, feeling that first cold front break the back of summer, and knowing your team has a meaningful baseball game that night at 7:00pm. It consumes you! It’s all your mind keeps coming back to throughout the day. And for the most part, we’ve been robbed of that feeling of late. I want it back! </p>
<p id="nI7P8p">Oh, and on that final note, doesn’t the fact that the Red Sox are projected to be about a half dozen games below the tension point this year make it even more damning that they didn’t do anything worth a damn this offseason? There’s still a chance they just surprise everybody and punch above their weight, but they had a wonderful opportunity to pour some resources into this team and lift them up into the chaos, and just didn’t do it. </p>
<p id="PLXdeS">This is why signing Jordan Montgomery would do wonders for the 2024 squad. Even if they aren’t on the same level as the top tier teams, a signing like that would almost certainly reduce their proximity to the tension point, and at this stage, Red Sox fans need that as much as anything. </p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/18/24096900/the-red-sox-must-reduce-their-proximity-to-the-tension-point-yankees-american-league-east-playoffsMatthew Gross2024-03-18T09:00:00-04:002024-03-18T09:00:00-04:00OTM Open Thread 3/18: It is Monday
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<figcaption>Photo by Kelly Gavin/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Last week of Spring Training</p> <p id="R62mML">Happy Monday. We’ve reached the last full week of Spring Training. The 2024 MLB season kicks off fully next week. There will be two games between the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Los Angeles Dodgers</a> and the <a href="https://www.gaslampball.com/">San Diego Padres</a> <em>this</em> week in South Korea but the other 28 teams will be waiting. </p>
<p id="QoJxFa">The <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> have almost certainly not signed Jordan Montgomery as I write this but as the internet has killed King Charles overnight (also something that likely didn’t happen) who can say what news is or isn’t about to break. </p>
<p id="KpAADQ">Blake Snell meanwhile is sitting at home with his Cy Young award wondering where it all went wrong.</p>
<p id="mUKLee">Let’s do this again for the heck of it:</p>
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<p id="ATrKl9">Nick Pivetta takes the ball at 1:05 PM ET against the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a>. The Sox enter 14-9 in spring play. Spring win-loss records are literally meaningless but it’s still funny to see.</p>
<p id="H8D2CK">Talk about what you want and be good to one another.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/18/24104683/otm-open-thread-3-18-it-is-mondayMike Carlucci2024-03-17T14:10:51-04:002024-03-17T14:10:51-04:00Josh Winckowski to Start Season in Bullpen
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<figcaption>Photo by Mary DeCicco/MLB Photos via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>The righty’s shaping up to be a multi-inning reliever once again for the Red Sox.</p> <p id="i3Mzp8"><em>Some people pregame for St. Patrick’s Day by dressing up in clover-laden jawns and by deleting a few alcoholic beverages. I pregame by writing about the </em><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/"><em>Red Sox</em></a><em>’s pitching staff...before deleting a few alcoholic beverages of my own.</em></p>
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<p id="nreELU">At the top o’ the morning on Sunday, multiple people within the Boston sports media landscape let us know that Red Sox manager Alex Cora came to a decision regarding right-handed pitcher Josh Winckowski’s status to begin the 2024 season: he’ll be in the bullpen.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Cora: “we talked to Winck, we’re going to move him to the bullpen”</p>— Lou Merloni (@LouMerloni) <a href="https://twitter.com/LouMerloni/status/1769359375968194665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2024</a>
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<p id="fK4aWw">Winck had been shaping up to at least be a candidate for the starting rotation at season’s open alongside fellow reliever-starter hybrids Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Cooper Criswell. Now, it looks like he’s slated to be a multi-inning guy out of the ‘pen once again.</p>
<p id="PsGUp2">Frankly, that’s probably for the best at this point. Winckowski was excellent in relief in 2023; an important part of a bullpen that was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise—to put it as my Irish ancestors would—shite season. Big shout out to The Sports Hub’s Tyler Milliken for saving me the time and putting together the numbers for Winck in relief last year.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Alex Cora has announced that Josh Winckowski will be moving back to the bullpen. <br><br>That’s exactly where he should be. What he did last season doesn’t get appreciated enough. <br><br>60 Appearances - 84.1 IP<br>2.88 ERA/3.91 FIP<br>8.8 K/9<br>3.3 BB/9<br>158 ERA+<br><br>You’ll need a multi-inning arm… <a href="https://t.co/uG8eiroDv6">pic.twitter.com/uG8eiroDv6</a></p>— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) <a href="https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1769362953503920378?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 17, 2024</a>
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<p id="UyXbxZ">Winckowski’s dazzling numbers last year led to him posting a 1.9 bWAR, trailing just Chris Martin’s mark 3.2 for the best among Boston pitchers who worked primarily as relievers in 2023.</p>
<p id="ucVIoF"><a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/josh-winckowski-670174?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb">What especially impressed me about Winckowski’s 2023 campaign was his command</a>.</p>
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<p id="acBYiW"><a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/4/24/23694747/monday-morning-brushback-the-audacity-of-hope-red-sox-review">As I highlighted in an April edition of the Monday Morning Brushback</a> (which will return in a matter of days now), he was hanging his sinker—his most common offering—right over the plate in 2022. Mix that sub-optimal location for your primary pitch with the inability to limit hard contact, and it’s no surprise that Winckowski logged a 5.89 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 72 ERA+ across 70.1 innings in 2022, where he made 14 of his 15 appearances as a starter.</p>
<p id="FctPwQ">Yet that was then, and 2023 was...well, it was also then, but I suppose that it was a more now-er then. (I haven’t started my St. Paddy’s celebrations just yet, I promise.)</p>
<p id="AiN0U0">Winckowski was able to live more on the shadows of the zone last year while also adding some extra sauce to that sinker—he was able to bump the average velo on the pitch up from 94.1 MPH in 2022 to 96.3 MPH in 2023. The location on the edges was also nice for Winck’s cutter—which he developed as probably his best put-away pitch last season—and his slider/sweeper/whatever you want to call it—an offering he’s been working to incorporate more into his arsenal in 2024, <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/josh-winckowski-gets-out-of-jury-duty-to-make-spring-start">according to MLB.com’s Joe Trezza</a>.</p>
<blockquote><p id="TsYR3O">“I think having a good slider/sweeper will be a big part of me being in the rotation and staying in the rotation,” Winckowski said. “It’s important I get it figured out...”</p></blockquote>
<p id="VYFyaV">Well, the rotation inclusion isn’t a reality right now, but Winckowski’s secondary improvements will be key if he wants to build on a solid 2023 season. If he’s able to continue to hit his spots while keeping the the hard contact to a minimum while also inducing a healthy amount of ground balls in front of what appears to be a better defense (which shouldn’t be saying much compared to last year), then Winck can be highly effective as a multi-inning reliever once more in 2024.</p>
<p id="c6LIqQ">Who knows! Maybe he does get his chance again in the rotation down the line and maybe he’s able to translate his recent developments into that job, too!</p>
<p id="9GG4iv">As for the race to fill out the remainder of the starting rotation prior to Opening Day, I’d imagine that Houck and Whitlock will be joining Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, and Kutter Crawford, with Criswell being called upon in relief alongside Winckowski.</p>
<p id="IEzpkC">For what it’s worth, Houck is having a great spring: as I’m writing this, he’s allowed just a pair of earned runs over 11.1 frames in the Grapefruit League, while striking out 12 and registering a WHIP of 0.71. That certainly seems like it’s good enough to have him open in the rotation and give him another shot to be a consistent starter, despite his past hiccups in the role.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">2 great innings from Tanner Houck? That certainly tracks <a href="https://t.co/rzrSiSJISl">pic.twitter.com/rzrSiSJISl</a> <a href="https://t.co/HV1bIih0Ex">https://t.co/HV1bIih0Ex</a></p>— Pod On Lansdowne (@PodOnLansdowne) <a href="https://twitter.com/PodOnLansdowne/status/1762185272651821401?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 26, 2024</a>
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<p id="tKh296">Whitlock hasn’t been a scrub this spring, either, with a 3.45 ERA and a WHIP of 0.96 over 15.2 innings. After bursting onto the scene in 2021, Whit’s dealt with more than his fair share of injuries in the past two seasons. He’s been used as a starter in the past with mixed results; he’s got a lifetime ERA of 4.76 in 19 starts compared to a 2.65 ERA in 80 career relief appearances.</p>
<p id="OS7ZCs"><a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Fnesn.com%2F2024%2F02%2Fred-sox-garrett-whitlock-in-great-spot-as-they-determine-role%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.overthemonster.com%2F2024%2F3%2F17%2F24103820%2Fred-sox-news-josh-winckowski-to-start-season-in-bullpen-spring-training" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Now healthy</a>, perhaps this is where Whit can get back on track on the mound—get that sweeper spinnin’, attack the zone with the sinker, and make me blush with that mid-80s change. That’s the recipe for success this year with Whitlock, whether it’s as a starter or as a reliever.</p>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Garrett Whitlock, 94mph Two Seamer and 84mph Changeup, Overlay. <a href="https://t.co/tr0NK6vo7o">pic.twitter.com/tr0NK6vo7o</a></p>— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) <a href="https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1380278437236117506?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 8, 2021</a>
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<p id="4mvU95">Of course, the rotation could be boosted by signing a certain left-handed <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/world-series">World Series</a> champion, who remains a free agent. But that whole situation is a story for another article, and I’ve got pints of Guinness to drink today. Sláinte!</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/17/24103820/red-sox-news-josh-winckowski-to-start-season-in-bullpen-spring-trainingFitzy Mo Peña2024-03-15T09:10:20-04:002024-03-15T09:10:20-04:00OTM Open Thread 3/15-3/17: It is the Weekend
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<img alt="Red Sox Spring Training" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Di6Td-1DO2YmzzWMQ3vZNFG5Pdw=/0x804:2090x2197/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73209150/450175660.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Gabe Souza/Portland Portland Press Herald via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Happy St. Patrick’s Day Green Sox!</p> <p id="Z8tKcG">TGIF.</p>
<p id="1zDHEe">Jordan Montgomery is still connected to the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a>. The <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> and Padres play the first MLB games next week in South Korea. Opening Day is the Thursday after that. Even if Monty comes to terms with Boston and has been working out at Camp Boras...how long will he need to get ready for the season? If seven years is truly the sticking point when will Scott Boras recognize 2024 will be only maybe <sup>3</sup>⁄<sub>4</sub> a season for Montgomery and Snell because they didn't’ sign until April?</p>
<p id="QQTSaU">Whitlock takes the ball against the <a href="https://www.twinkietown.com/">Minnesota Twins</a> at 6:05 PM ET on Friday.</p>
<p id="1Yghu9">TBD starts against the <a href="https://www.camdenchat.com/">Baltimore Orioles</a> at 1:05 PM ET on Saturday. Against their new weapon Corbin Burnes.</p>
<p id="vri3SY">The Sox will take on the Braves and Twins at 1:05 PM ET on Sunday. No starters have been announced for any of the three teams as of Friday morning.</p>
<p id="FLPQE9">Talk about what you want and be good to one another.</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/15/24101718/otm-open-thread-3-15-3-17-it-is-the-weekendMike Carlucci2024-03-15T07:12:09-04:002024-03-15T07:12:09-04:00Things We’re Terrified Of In 2024: Rafael Devers’ Sub-4 WAR Seasons Becoming a Trend
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<img alt="St. Louis Cardinals v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/txv56qFxHu4jEETgNpyWjc5V3fA=/0x0:5381x3587/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73208958/2071890306.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Except that they already have.</p> <p id="6GCVbo">One of the sugar plums that danced in my head during that all-too-brief period when ownership promised us a “full throttle” off-season was addressing our <a href="https://www.mlb.com/player/rafael-devers-646240">Rafael Devers</a> problem.</p>
<p id="K2dIUy">I had actually begun working on an article that lobbied to “make the hot corner hot again.” It involved various schemes of mine to rectify our infield’s porous defense, and boy did Rafael Devers get the full heat of my laser-focused gaze. Last year’s botched defense was a team problem, of course, but I was brainstorming at a time when we knew Trevor Story was returning at full strength, and we’d acquired Vaughn Grissom at second.</p>
<p id="VCRF5h">I hesitated to publish that three months ago because firstly, I thought it would be enormously unpopular, and secondly, it quickly became apparent that the Sox were going to mostly stand pat this offseason. The idea of “doing something about Devers” became entirely irrelevant, so I did what any good Irish-former-Catholic would do, and internalized all my feelings. But I can’t hold them in any longer.</p>
<p id="iJXFoh">I may have killed my own article, but my skepticism about Devers lives on.</p>
<p id="9JiB2Q">Please don’t get me wrong; I love the way he’s been mentoring and bonding with <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/casastr01.shtml">Triston Casas</a>. And <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNo7mzCR8-4&ab_channel=FoulTerritory">according to Jonathan Papelbon</a>, Devers has been working hard to improve his English for the express purpose of becoming a clubhouse leader. Just three weeks ago, he became the face of Sox fans’ discontent by <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/2/20/24078231/red-sox-news-links-former-current-red-sox-call-out-ownership-free-agent-rumors-jordan-montgomery-fsh">publicly taking FSG ownership to task</a> for not bringing in help during the offseason. I was one of his early fans and remember the excitement of seeing him play for the first time when the Sox came to Seattle. And remember when we used to call him “my son”?</p>
<p id="2bcoZa">Oh those heady days of 2017! After being called up that July, less than a month later, <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2023/1/5/23540080/rafael-devers-is-the-reason-we-care-red-sox-news-contract-extension-chaim-bloom-john-henry">Devers hit a home run in the ninth inning to tie the game</a>—against <a href="https://www.pinstripealley.com/">Yankees</a> closer Aroldis Chapman. Two days later, he initiated a triple play. He ran up all kinds of exciting offensive accolades in his early days that put him the rarified company of players like Ted Williams and Tony Conigliaro: an early 4-hit game, one of the youngest Sox players to hit a home run, homering in back-to-back games before the age of 21.</p>
<p id="QObRpH">Even in retrospect, it’s easy to see why we pinned so many hopes and dreams on this enormous potential. During the 2017 regular season, Devers hit .284 with 10 home runs and 30 RBIs. He started 56 games at third base and had a .906 fielding percentage. That’s almost comically low (though not as low as his .891 in 2020 but I can forgive a lot of things that happened in 2020). The average across MLB for all third basemen was .956 in 2017, but Devers had very reasonable excuses for underperforming: he was young, he was new, he didn’t play a full season, he needed time to grow into a complete player.</p>
<p id="PWjMxn">He’s since won individual awards, like two Silver Sluggers and two All-Star nods. He also singlehandedly holds an impressive record: <a href="https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/craig-breslow-most-important-job-fixing-red-sox-defense/562708/">he has led AL third basemen in errors for six years in a row</a>.</p>
<p id="mFKBgl">Let that sink in. Yikes.</p>
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<p id="01d5bN">Devers never grew out of the errors, and they continue to keep coming. They are what’s continually tamping his WAR down below four. And well, we’re still waiting for the promised superstardom. But after seven years on the team, we know what we have in him.</p>
<p id="QXxqNS">It’s well past the point of hoping he’ll get better defensively—either thinking that he simply needed to learn his position, or that he would lean into the joy of becoming a good defender, or whatever the case—he’s not that young baby-faced player anymore who gets the benefit of the doubt. He is firmly mid-career, and for whatever reason, improving on defense has not seemed to interest him. While his offensive achievements have brought us to our feet over the years, I don’t see the consistently punishing offense we’ve been banking on (other than against Gerrit Cole, and gosh is that fun). Frankly, Devers’ offensive upside isn’t the same as Manny Ramirez’s, where we were willing to overlook a multitude of defensive sins simply to have that sweet swing in the lineup. Devers isn’t Manny.</p>
<p id="2qQ3lP">Devers clocked 19 errors in 2023, which led all third basemen. (If you’re counting, he tied with shortstop Javier Baez for the most in the American League, and tied for the third most of all MLB players.)</p>
<p id="foPamn">His fielding percentage has always been below average, each year of his career. The errors are shocking in their quantity. Leaving out his debut half-season, he’s racked up 24 in 2018, 22 the next year, 14 in the shortened 2020 season, 22 in 2021, 14 in 2022, and 19 last year.</p>
<p id="OBPpRy">Here, see for yourself. Devers has negative numbers or is below the league average in almost every single defensive category, in almost every single year of his career:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Chart of Rafael Devers’ defensive statistics, which show him to be below average in nearly every category, every year." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/g3L8BGvhSaR21_DbNDUiM1CO2DE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25337325/baseball_reference_devers_fielding_2024_03_14_at_8.13.08_PM.png">
<figcaption>Courtesy of Baseball Reference</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="KJkSX6">To circle back to Manny, his lowest career fielding percentage was a far more respectable (but not great!) .953.</p>
<p id="9JtnnW">As far as Outs Above Average, Devers clocks in at -9 (yes, negative nine) and -24 total in his career. Take a look at Baseball Savant’s graphic:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Fielding statistics show Rafael Devers is in 4th percentile of fielding." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/J2JoZgEZtMTYAIRYIbl1ANfQSak=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25337330/baseball_savant_devers_fielding_2024.png">
<figcaption>Baseball Savant</figcaption>
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<p id="wZBMC8">It doesn’t get any bluer than that.</p>
<p id="mi8F4I">No, wait. I was wrong; it does. Here’s Devers’ graphic from 2021:</p>
<figure class="e-image">
<img alt="Fielding statistics show Rafael Devers in the first percentile for fielding." data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZIbYgHpO2llmsoFO-YhZ_QjCHeo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25337331/baseball_savant_devers_fielding_2021.png">
<figcaption>Baseball Savant</figcaption>
</figure>
<p id="Vv4Y9U">I can’t recall when I’ve seen any player in the first percentile before. That’s so bad, it’s almost impressive.</p>
<p id="LPSvSC">When this really started to chap my hide was this offseason, when it became clear that our infield was severely limiting our options to acquire pitching. This particular complaint became moot, as I’ve already mentioned, but back when we seemed to be motivated to wheel and deal, it kind of angered me that we couldn’t even consider any ground ball pitchers. While these types of pitchers aren’t generally considered in the ace class, and we can all agree that of course we prefer an ace, it held us back from considering all the options at a time when I think we should have been open to anything. (In fact, we were promised that.)</p>
<p id="tFWEes">Devers signed a contract extension: 10 years for $313.5M. He’s officially playing on his contract extension now, and it will take him (and us) through 2033. I loved it at the moment it was signed, and honestly, we all needed a boost after the Bogaerts discussions took the brutal turn they did. But I was caught up in the emotions of it. I needed my raw disappointment in FSG ownership to be soothed, and I truly thought that somehow this would be motivating for Devers, like he would somehow assume the responsibility to level-up every aspect of his game in order to settle into this new phase of his career. With the ink dry, there was little sign of leveling-up last season.</p>
<p id="CKZZrD">Speaking of responsibilities and leveling-up, there have been questions about Devers seemingly shirking a leadership role for a few years now. Those who defended Devers tended to argue that there were others who were older and better suited on the team who were already filling that role, such as Bogaerts, then Justin Turner. </p>
<p id="NhCP11">Devers’ unwillingness or inability to step up where he needs to (defense and possibly leadership), or level-up where he’s already good but not truly great (at the plate)…well, I can’t help but feel that Devers is not the A-game, alpha player we thought we had. Not quite at the plate and certainly not in the field.</p>
<p id="9V41yF">But, the 2024 season is a whole new year. There’s no doubt the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> players (if not ownership) are motivated to start fresh: Trevor Story is back at short and leading a wave of new leadership (possibly letting Devers off the hook again?), joined by Triston Casas, who seemingly showed up at every possible team-building event this winter. Despite the injuries and fans’ anger at FSG ownership, there does seem to be some spark to the players, who seem mostly eager to put the malaise of 2023 behind them.</p>
<p id="r1jTpT">Maybe Devers, who has always seemed to prefer to join in rather than lead, can feel comfortable following in others’ footsteps and trying hard to improve on 2023’s performance. The optimist in me wants to believe that, but we’ve already spent so long waiting for his potential to fully blossom. I would love to be wrong, but I fear that 3-ish WAR from here on out is all we can expect.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/15/24101548/red-sox-preview-things-were-terrified-of-in-2024-rafael-devers-sub-4-war-seasons-becoming-a-trendMaura McGurk2024-03-14T20:21:09-04:002024-03-14T20:21:09-04:00The Red Seat Previews the National League
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<img alt="Championship Series - Philadelphia Phillies v Arizona Diamondbacks - Game Seven" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gKT6k4TVnQ_rI5NDiQhIvLMRj0o=/0x0:3930x2620/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73208309/1755244755.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Jake, Keaton, and Bob take on Part Two of their comprehensive MLB preview, going team-by-team across the National League. </p> <p id="QpCYJ5">Welcome back to The Red Seat Podcast, episode number 309. This week, Jake Devereaux, Keaton DeRocher, and Bob Osgood tackle part two of their team-by-team MLB preview, looking at the National League. You can listen to <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/1/24087521/the-red-seat-previews-the-american-league-red-sox-podcast">Part One here</a> when they went around the American League. </p>
<p id="BGxkua">After a brief update on the Lucas Giolito injury, we started our preview in the National League East by looking at the Braves and the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Phillies</a>, the strength of the division with the Phillies prevailing in the playoffs two years in a row. Can the Marlins repeat last year’s success riding the arm of Eury Perez? The <a href="https://www.amazinavenue.com/">Mets</a> have an outrageous payroll but won 75 games last year and don’t have much of a pitching staff. When will the Nationals embrace the youth movement and call up their stud prospects?</p>
<p id="V8U9uV">In the Central, this division looks up for grabs as we try to find a pitching staff worthy of our praise. The <a href="https://www.brewcrewball.com/">Brewers</a> won this division by nine games a year ago but lost their manager Craig Counsell (to a division rival), traded Corbin Burnes, and will be without closer Devin Williams for half of the season. The <a href="https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/">Cubs</a> narrowly missed the playoffs but their rotation is dicey. The Reds are a top-3 MLB TV entertainment squad but can their young pitching step up? The Cardinals added Sonny Gray and not much else to a 71-win team, and the Pirates are probably a year away from their elite prospects hitting their stride. </p>
<p id="5qJ9M7">Out West, the <a href="https://www.truebluela.com/">Dodgers</a> are the odds-on favorite to win the title, as well as have the most wins in baseball. Are they finally built for October? The <a href="https://www.azsnakepit.com/">Diamondbacks</a> won the pennant a year ago but will need to improve on an 84-win output to get back into the dance. Fortunately, they have a team of emerging young bats and arms. The Padres made more significant moves (both incoming and outgoing) than any team in baseball, and with a new manager in Mike Shildt and their latest addition of Dylan Cease, might have the right combination in the clubhouse this season. The Giants’ roster might not jump off the page but they made some sneaky additions in Jung Hoo Lee and Jorge Soler and hope to have the best rookie pitcher in baseball in Kyle Harrison. And the Rockies... well, they should suck again. </p>
<p id="VMTCw9">If you have a question for an upcoming Red Seat pod, you can email us at redseatpodcast@gmail.com or tweet us. On Twitter, Jake is @DevJake, Keaton is @TheSpokenKeats and Bob is @BobOsgood15. Thanks for listening!</p>
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https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/14/24100325/the-red-seat-previews-the-national-league-red-sox-podcastBob OsgoodKeaton DeRocherJake Devereaux2024-03-14T09:00:00-04:002024-03-14T09:00:00-04:00OTM Open Thread 3/14: It is Thursday
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<img alt="St. Louis Cardinals v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/_cXaLjlwjMrR_R6C9vUwUJzz32k=/0x0:4507x3005/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73206399/2071890593.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Two weeks left</p> <p id="2pgUCO">Happy Thursday and Happy Pi Day.</p>
<p id="BZDoO5">There are two weeks remaining until the <a href="https://www.overthemonster.com/">Red Sox</a> play on Opening Day in Seattle. Jordan Montgomery remains unsigned. The Red Sox are still connected to him although at this point you have to wonder where the connection rumors are coming from given that the one free agent pitcher they signed <em>wasn’t</em> him. </p>
<p id="uEVgT9">The Sox take on the <a href="https://www.thegoodphight.com/">Philadelphia Phillies</a> at 1:05 PM ET with Josh Winckowski getting the start.</p>
<p id="V6jX5O">Talk about what you want and be good to one another.</p>
https://www.overthemonster.com/2024/3/14/24100591/otm-open-thread-3-14-it-is-thursdayMike Carlucci