Alright tomorrow is February 1st! Only a couple weeks away from all 3.5 of our pitchers, and of course the catchers reporting.

I know we talked in the other post about setting up in Feb, draft in March. Just wanted to create this fanpost to start the discussion again on what the plans are. Very excited for baseball, and very excited for more fantasy excitement-fantasy baseball that is.

What's the game plan my friends?

There's a pretty wide variety of opinions on what the Sox will do next year - anything from 80 games, 4th place finish to competing for the World Series. I decided to try to take a somewhat objective look at what we can expect from them compared to last year's results. I decided to use WAR data and projections from Fangraphs for the ease of dealing with a single stat that roughly estimates a player's contribution to the team (read this as: I'm lazy).

Position players:

Returning players

C: Jarrod Saltalamacchia

2011 WAR: 2.5

Projections have him performing similarly next year, at 2.7 WAR.

Delta = 0.2

1B: Adrian Gonzalez

2011 WAR: 6.6 (career-high)

Projections show a slight decline, to 6.1 WAR, though of course potential is there for improvement, too.

Delta = -0.5

2B: Dustin Pedroia

2011 WAR: 8.0 (another career-high)

No one would be surprised by a repeat of this, but he projects to 7.0 WAR in 2012, which is none too shabby either.

Delta = -1.0

3B: Kevin Youkilis

2011 WAR: 3.7

Projected for 5.5 WAR in 2012, though obviously this depends on health

Delta = 1.8

LF: Carl Crawford

2011 WAR: 0.2

OK, improvement seems pretty likely here. Projected to improve to 4.3 WAR in 2012. I'm sure there will be some debate about just how much.

Delta = 4.1

CF: Jacoby Ellsbury

2011 WAR: 9.4 (career-high)

And the other side of the coin... few expect a repeat here. Projection is for 6.7 WAR

Delta = -2.7

Adding up the delta values gives +1.9 WAR. So from this method we can expect overall improvement from the returning players. It is worth noting that most of this is from projected improvements from Crawford and Youk, projections that I'm sure will be debated. But hey, so far, things aren't looking too bad. Basically we are hoping that Crawford will improve enough to cover for Ellsbury's fall back to earth, and that a healthy Youk can make up for a slight drop-off in Gonzalez and Pedroia.

Now, for the actual changes in personnel:

SS - 2011: Marco Scutaro

2011 WAR: 2.9

2012: Mike Aviles / Nick Punto

Aviles is projected to contribute 1.3 WAR in 105 games, Punto 1.2 WAR in 78 games. I'll guess Aviles plays around 100 and Punto around 60, giving about 2.2 WAR for the combination of the two.

Delta: -0.7

RF - 2011: J.D. Drew/Josh Reddick

2011 Corpse of Drew WAR: -0.3, Reddick: 1.9, total 1.6

2012: Ryan Sweeney/Cody Ross

Sweeney is project for 1.1 WAR in 105 games, and Ross 1.4 for 112. Normalizing to 80 games each gives 0.8 for Sweeney, and 1 for Ross. Total: 1.8

Delta = 0.2

2nd C - 2011: Jason Varitek

2011 WAR: 0.5

2012: Kelly Shoppach

Projected for 1.1 WAR in 62 games. No need to normalize - Salty's projection was for ~100 games. Lavarnway is projected for 2.1 WAR in 71 games, but he's basically depth right now, so I won't include him.

Delta = 0.6

Adding up the deltas for the changes in position personnel, we get +0.1 WAR. A wash, basically. The main hope for improvement here is that platoon splits work out really well and these players are able to contribute more value than projected. But we shouldn't expect to see too much of a drop-off in performance from turnover.

Of course, batting is not #1 on most people's minds right now. It's the pitching. Which I will get to later when I'm in the mood for more tedium. Plus, hey, maybe there will be a pitching acquisition soon!

Aviles has a career UZR/150 at SS of 12.4. That's better than any other position for Aviles. In comparison, Scutaro's career UZR/150 at SS is 2.8. Aviles also has a better career wRC+ than Scutaro. Maybe this is what the Sox FO saw when they traded away Scutaro, they thought Aviles was better at SS, and they could sign a pitcher. I would still rather have Scutaro, because I still think he's a little better than Aviles, but hopefully, Aviles is as good or better.

I have been throwing around my projections a lot and not explaining them. That was a bad idea. In this post I will explain how it works and do an example. My example will be Cody Ross

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I think the Red Sox have a shot, it is a very unpopular opinion, but I'll show you why after the jump

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I want to preface this article by stating that if we are less than 5 games back in late July, then the statements put forward in this article do not apply. All moves made in this article would be made near the trading deadline.


The Red Sox are a good team that, in my opinion, is headed in the wrong direction. An organization that was once a near-perpetual prospect generator and the envy of 28 other clubs in the league has begun to use a tactic I associate with the mid-2000s Yankees, we are buying our players instead of attempting to promote internal growth. Sometimes, as is the case with Adrian Gonzalez, that works out. Sometimes, as is the case with Julio Lugo or Bobby Jenks, it fails miserably and we're left paying millions of dollars to players who are not giving us a good chance to win games.

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Okay, I might have been the worst fantasy commissioner of the OTM leagues last year, as I didn't post weekly updates on the league's performance and never even did a recap. My team finished sixth (out of six teams to make the playoffs), and yet I somehow managed to get to the championship game with a lot of luck... only to put up a wonderful goose egg to our league champion.

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Here is an update on the action as of today: 1/31/2012

Elsewhere: Bedard (PIT), Bell (FL), Beltran (STL), Breslow (ARZ), Broxton (KC), Buerhle (FL), Cahill (ARZ), Capuano (LAD), Capps (MIN), Darvish (TEX), Gonzalez (WAS), Harang (LAD), Jackson (WAS), Ludwick (CIN), Madson (CIN), Maholm (CHC), Nathan (TEX), Qualls (PHI), Ramirez (MIL), Rodriguez (MIL), Saunders (ARZ), Sherrill (SEA), Wheeler (CLE), Willingham (MIN), Willis (PHI), Wilson (LAA), Zumaya (MIN)

In the Fold: Ortiz, Shoppach, Bailey, Ross

Contenders already out of the running: BobZupcic, Dave D, LesterJohn, Revived0103, AlohaSox, nuthinboutnuthin, TLD, Rogue Nine, Jake_W, Brandon C., outofleftfield, wolf9309

Current Leader(s): aubatron2011

He says the Oswalt offer is about 5M, but Karl Ravitch has reported Oswalt is deciding between Texas and St. Louis. The Cards had offered a little less than 5M previously. As for Jackson, he thinks the offer is around 7M or 8M, but that both pitchers may be afraid of the AL East. He also indicated Cherington is willing to negotiate in a patient and conservative style.

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This is my first post. I have enjoyed reading Over the Monster for quite some time, but I finally figured I might have something to say.

I became a Red Sox fan in October of 1986. It was my first year in Boston, and I was completely swept away by the ALCS and World Series that year. If you recall, when the Tigers won the World Series in 1984, there were images of burning cars all over Detroit, so I had no idea what would happen in Boston.

When the Sox won the pennant in 1986, the goal was, apparently, to hang a pair of red socks from every light post in Kenmore Square. Obviously, Sox fans are more dignified! (Of course we'll overlook the bums trying to overturn the Pizza Pad delivery truck)!

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