I was thinking about how this season would shape out today, and decided I wanted to know what you guys thought too (not sure why, but I digress)

Here's how I see things shaping out. ( I was going to add my ballpark of what each teams record would be, but then I decided the Royals couldn't REALLY go 12-150 to make all my numbers accurate.

AL East

1. Red Sox (by maybe 3 games?)

2. Yankees (Wild Card Winner)

3. Rays

4. Orioles ( With as good of a record possible while still ending up 4th)

5. Blue Jays

AL Central (toughest to decide by far)

1. Twins ( By 2 games or less)

2. White Sox (over Detroit by 2 games or less)

3. Tigers

4. Indians

5. Royals (12-150) [Soria has 12 wins and 12 saves somehow]

AL West

1. Rangers ( By 4 games)

2. Angels

3. Mariners

4. A's

NL East

1. Phillies (by 6 games)

2. Braves

3. Mets

4. Nationals

5. Marlins

NL Central

1. Cardinals (by 9 games)

2. Brewers

3. Reds

4. Cubs

5. Astros

6. Pirates (16-146)

NL West

1. Rockies (By 1 game)

2. Giants (Wild Card Winner)

3. Dodgers

4. Diamondbacks

5. Padres

Definitely tough to commit to all of these, so be gentle.  : )

Have fun.

The Fort Myers paper, The News-Press, is going to shoot live video of the Sox taking batting practice before they play the Twins on Friday (march 5) morning. The Sox are scheduled to start at 11:15 a..m, after the Twins, and be done around 12:15. It can be seen at news-press.com. Not sure who will be making the trip for the Sox yet, but I know that Lester will start followed by Wake.

This is a follow up FanPost to the previous one on HR and World Series Champions. I wanted a direct statistical analysis for Team HR and "Winning". Since winning the World Series is a qualitative statistic I could not do a direct correlation against stats like Team HR Rank so I used Winning Percentage. I chose to analyze team rank for the following categories: Team HR, Team Run Scored (RS), Team Runs Allowed (RA) and Team Run Differential (RD) against Winning Percentage (WP). I only did the AL to remove league inequities and I only ran the numbers for the 2000's (2000 - 2009). This gave me 140 data sets. Listed in the table you will find the correlation coefficients for each year and then the coefficients for the entire set of data (10 years).

The negative on the correlation means nothing, just that low numbers (such as being ranked 1st - correlate to high numbers such as a larger winning percentage). So you would expect negative values. The goal would be -1 and the closer to that -1 the closer the correlation. Data after the jump  

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So I was over on SB Nation's The Daily Dish, and there's an article about rumblings of a six year contract extention for Derek Jeter.

The article author provides the following quote:

It would be tough for the Yankees to argue against giving Jeter a six-year extension.

And so I says to myself: Boy. Do I know some folks who could get some fuel offa that line.

In Heyman's SI article on which the post is based, it mentions A-Rod and how 6 more years of Jeets brings him to age 42, which is the same as A-Rod will be at the end of his contract and other congruencies, and it also describes them as "frenemies", so make sure you read that, too.

So? Thoughts?

Maybe its just me, but this is one of my favorite days of the year. The day the new MLB The Show comes out with the newest game in its franchise. Dustin Pedroia was the cover athlete last season and was vastly overrated, as was Ortiz. I'm really looking forward to seeing how the guys at Sony rate the Sox this year and looking forward to seeing any new additions to the game...

Anyone else big on this game? I feel its about as close to the real thing as you can get right now for a game. Can't wait to play!

You've probably (like me) read the numerous articles, posts, and subsequent reponses regarding the Sox apparent or less-than-apparent lack of power as predicted for the 2010 squad. One specifically interesting quote ran something like - "name me one World Series team that won without a big bopper in their lineup". This led me to look back at the past World Champions (still not sure why its called the World Series, but alas) and see how they ranked in team HR and also ponder the question - "Do you need a "big-homerrun hitter" to win the World Series?" Included in the stats are the number of players with 40+, 30+ and 20+ HR for that season. A player with exactly 30 HR was slotted into the 30+ category, and so on.

** Edited to include the 1980s and a few more comments

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In Cafadaro's Sunday "Baseball Notes" column, he mentions the statistic "defensive efficiency" (DefEff) as one to watch. It "measures the percentage of balls put into play that are converted into outs." I googled it, and found the stat at Baseball Prospectus.  Last year, the Sox were 28th out of 30 teams. Ouch.

Notably, the DefEff numbers aren't the direct inverse of team BABIP.  DefEff includes errors, and BABIP by definition doesn't, but it is that the only difference?

I'd look it up, but I'm lazy. (Plus, I've got to hit the gym and watch the hockey game.) But I hadn't heard of the stat and thought I'd share. I know I'm curious how much our team D will improve this season, as measured by all these facy new metrics.

(Speaking of which, I found this Gasper piece on UZR to be amusing. I mean, count me as those who don't believe UZR is "teh best measurement evah," and I'm tired of over-reliance on it to say so-and-so sucks or is great or whatnot. But still, pieces like this make me pine for the days of "Fire Joe Morgan.")

I've recently started a new project at themilbnetwork.com. My goal is to create an online minor league resource that organizes draft/prospect information into one easy to access place. So far, I have pages for the Orioles and Red Sox. The pages aren't done, as I am still looking for more resources to add to the pages. So what are some good websites for Red Sox minor league information? I already know soxprospects.com but are there any others?

What could I add to this page to make it better.

The time has come to poll the mass public on this burning topic.

Here is footage of Leigh:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDUIwUbkFZs

Here is footage of Lackey:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AKBW2pfj9U

To Everything (Turn, Turn, Turn)
There is a season (Turn, Turn, Turn)
And a time to every purpose, under Heaven

A time to be born, a time to die
A time to plant, a time to reap
A time to kill, a time to heal
A time to laugh, a time to weep

To Everything (Turn, Turn, Turn)
There is a season (Turn, Turn, Turn)
And a time to every purpose, under Heaven

A time to build up,a time to break down
A time to dance, a time to mourn
A time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones together

To Everything (Turn, Turn, Turn)
There is a season (Turn, Turn, Turn)
And a time to every purpose, under Heaven

A time of love, a time of hate
A time of war, a time of peace
A time you may embrace, a time to refrain from embracing

To Everything (Turn, Turn, Turn)
There is a season (Turn, Turn, Turn)
And a time to every purpose, under Heaven

A time to gain, a time to lose
A time to rend, a time to sew
A time for love, a time for hate
A time for peace, I swear it's not too late

I hadn't seen any discussion on OTM about this:

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/columns/story?columnist=mcdonald_joe&id=4943324

So I thought I'd create a fanpost for it.    I'll steal the banner quote from the above:

"My calling is to play this game, but now that I have two small kids
there are things I look forward to do outside of baseball that you
can't do because of the eight-month season. Do I stick around for a
year or two more? Do I finish up strong and see where I'm at? That'll
be an on-going battle during the last year of my contract, for sure." - Drew

Most folks here know I'm a big Drew fan - he does everything in the game I want out of a player.   Gets on base.  Creates outs.   Rocket arm.  Cool under pressure.  I loved the way he looked so professional both in the field and at the plate.  I'm a results oriented sorta guy and never got the hate that certain media jerks kept heaping on Drew.

I especially grew disgusted at the many misconceptions that folks perpetuate about Drew.  His first season with the Red Sox his numbers were down a bit.   Coming right off the big contract signing, folks screamed he was dogging it and didn't care.   Most folks don't realize that his child was ill and that was clearly a distraction.   A lot of ignorant fans think he's "soft" and injury prone.  They call him "Nancy Drew" and think he doesn't try harder to stay on the field.  Even fans who like Drew often make comments to the extent that they don't think he stays healthy.

Well, he's no Cal Ripken, Jr.  But since Drew has been a Red Sox player, only Ortiz, Youkilis & Pedroia have played more games.   He's played 386 games over these last three years.    And note that Ortiz is a DH and Youk is a first baseman.  That kind of puts the lie to Drew being unable to get on the field and earn his money.

I won't go into all the many stats that show how Drew has been one of the top 2 or 3 Right Fielders in the game in overall value for us.   Those have been plastered all over many discussions on this board these last few months.

I'm hoping that Drew will put up those same sorts of numbers to close out his career.

Finally, I also respect Drew for placing family at the top of his priority list.   I'll miss seeing him in RF in Fenway.  But if this means he retires a Red Sox, (just in time for Westmoreland, Kalish & Co.) that's okay.  He'll be 36 so that should be just about the right time to go out walking tall.