This plan is around pitching and defense: Most of you know that the Mariners made a huge turn this season and from a team with a losing record to one with 85-77, their process? Run prevention!

The M's have the best defense in baseball, they're sporting an 85.5 UZR!! Obviously, this top notch defense helped their pitching staff to lead the AL in ERA, take a look at their starters ERA and compare it with their respective FIP, It's the best way to understand the impact of the fielders:

You can check the rest of the pitchers here, The results are the same: The defense is making the M's pitchers post numbers superior to their true talent level. That's the route that I want my team to take. We know where the problems are: The Red Sox fielders were terrible this year posting a team UZR of -16.3 due in big part to the 2 butchers patrolling center and left field and Mike Lowell defense at 3rd base:

Ellsbury UZR/150: -18.6

Bay UZR/150: -11.2

Lowell UZR/150: -14.4

The Lineup:

First step would be to ship Lowell to a team looking for a 3rd baseman (Phillies did like him) and eating a portion of his salary for a mid level prospect like Trevor May. If he can't play third, we could ship him with cash to the Mets to be their 1st baseman and receive a prospect like Jeurys Familia. After that, I would like the FO to sign Adrian Beltre to a 4 years 9 millions/year deal so we could bring his superior defense to Fenway, his bat should be fine too when he leaves the cavernous Safeco Field (Check out this if you don't believe me).

For LF, I would like the team to sign Matt Holliday but not at a steep price: A 6 years at 18 millions/year should be the final offer! If another team wants to pay more (which I think they will), let them have him. And let's sign Mike Cameron to a one year deal at 10 millions to play CF and shift Ellsbury to LF where he plays some terrific defense.

Catcher: Victor Martinez

1st baseman: Kevin Youkilis UZR/150  15.2

2nd baseman: Dustin Pedroia UZR/150 10.6

Short Stop: Jed Lowrie UZR/150 32.0 (Small sample size but you got the idea that bs.uf's boy is a solid defender)

3rd Baseman: Adrian Beltre UZR/150 21.0 (I told you he's amazing with the leather!)

Left Fielder: Jacoby Ellsbury UZR/150 30.3 (Those are 2008 numbers where he played 58 games, obviously those numbers will regress but he'll remain a solid fielder like Crawford)

Center Fielder: Mike Cameron UZR/150 10.3

Right Fielder: JD Drew UZR/150 15.7

That's a stellar defensive team that will prevent a LOT of runs and will keep the payroll at the previous years level: So we can let the kids (Kalish and Reddick) continue their learning process in AAA and we could go after the big fish (You know who I'm talking about right?) next season after unloading all the bad contracts.

Starting Pitchers:

I would like to make a trade with the Marlins for Ricky Nolasco, now I know that their long term deal negotiation with Josh Johnson have come to an end but the price should be VERY high and I don't want to drain the whole farm for a pitcher with a TJ surgery in his resume. Nolasco on the other hand is an awesome pitcher who's high ERA (5.06) don't tell his true value (3.35 FIP) because of bad luck/fielding (BABIP of .336) which will drive the price down: I think that a Kotchman/Kelly package could get the deal done.

Imagine a rotation of Beckett/ Lester/ Buckhholz/ Matsuzaka and Nolasco (with Wakefield) playing in front of the best defensive team in baseball!!!! You have evreything you want in it: Youth, depth and cost control, plus you have Tazawa and Bowden waiting in the wings.

To restock the farm and replace the Kelly "loss", I would like that our FO signs Noel Arguelles who defected with Aroldis Chapman and who came in at No. 10 on Keith Law's list of the top 50 FAs:

Arguelles is 19 and already pitches with a solid-average fastball, although before he defected he had worked as high as 91-94 and will probably return there once he's throwing on a regular schedule again. His changeup projects better than his curveball, with the change a potentially plus pitch. What everyone notices about Arguelles is his body -- loose, lean, athletic, with good projection.

If he was an American high school or junior college player, he'd be a solid first-rounder with a chance to be a top-10 guy and would probably be a $4 million bonus baby. As a free agent, he should easily double that

Bullpen:

I would like to take a flyer in signing Kelvim Escobar as low risk-high reward kind of deal and promoting Dustin Richardson.

Bench:

I would like to make a trade with the D'Backs for Connor Jackson (If they choose to tender him), who could play LF and 1st base and kill LHPs in the process: A Doubront/Lentz can get the deal done.

As an utility infielder, I would like to sign Gonzalez to a one-year deal, if not I would love having Omar Vizquel or Adam Everett.

That's my plan, any thoughts?

If the rumor is true that Bay did reject the red sox offer, which we can't prove or disprove at this point, who's to say the Yankees won't swoop in and offer him crazy money like with Texiera?  The Yankees really do need OF help if they don't want to sign Matsui or Damon.  That would leave them with Gardener and Melky right now, they have to fix that before the season starts without question they will make a run for a big name.

How would you guys feel if the red sox made a large offer to Holliday?  I think this would actually work out quite well.  I would REALLY love to see the red sox sign both Holliday AND Bay.  Move Bay to right field and get rid of JD Drew.  Adding Holliday would bring us another 30 HR hitter.

According to Jon Heyman from SI Jason Bay has rejected the Sox contract offer of four years worth 60 million dollars. They have until Midnight tonight to bang out a deal. Bay's agent has said that they will not get a deal done soon but they will remain in contact. Bay does not seem likely to give the Sox any discount. It seems that the Red Sox have offered him a fair deal. This wouldn't be the first time they have lost out on a player's services because of an unwillingness to go the extra mile though Bay seems a bit selfish here.

ok so damon did do great last year, esp in the ws. and normally i would say nice to the fact that the mfy are possibly loosing him, but this gives the mfy a perfect chance to get matt holliday.  This is so scary.... to me at least.  Yes i realize that people think holliday cant hit in the a.l blah blah blah, but a lineup with teix arod holliday is terrifying. Any thoughts??

Baseball Prospectus released their list of the Top 11 Red Sox prospects, with an additional 4 noted after that, for a total of the Top 15.

Link

Five-Star Prospects
1. Ryan Westmoreland, CF
2. Casey Kelly RHP/SS
Four-Star Prospects
3. Josh Reddick, OF
4. Ryan Kalish, OF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Anthony Rizzo, 1B
6. Jose Iglesias, SS
7. Junichi Tazawa, RHP
8. Michael Bowden, RHP
9. Lars Anderson, 1B
10. Reymond Fuentes, CF
11. Derrik Gibson, 2B/SS

And

Four More:
12. David Renfroe, RHP/SS: Like Kelly, he's another big-bonus, two-way star, but Renfroe will begin his career as an infielder, and he projects as a prototypical third baseman due to his size, power potential, and arm.
13. Alex Wilson, RHP: He had a 0.50 ERA in New York-Penn League while giving up just 10 hits in 36 innings, but he's already 23, so he should dominate. Still, his fastball/slider combo is impressive.
14. Stolmy Pimentel, RHP: The young Dominican righty still has plus command and plenty of projection, but performances have been so-so.
15. Che-Hsuan Lin, LF: Lin’s tools still impress, his defense remains outstanding, his numbers... not so much, but Red Sox officials remain very high on him.

If you have a subscription to BP you can read details on all the top picks, but if not all you can read is the Westmoreland detail, where Goldstein says

Perfect World Projection: Westmoreland could be the kind of player people thought Grady Sizemore would become.

I don't have a subscription but I've read that Goldstein called Kelly's ceiling as a #2 starter and an "occasional all-star", not really an ace ceiling at this point.

Baseball America's list should be out in mid-December.

per: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/billy-wagner-could-accept-arbitration.html

Billy Wagner's agent Bean Stringfellow says not to rule out his client accepting an arbitration offer from the Red Sox, according to Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald.  Stringfellow said that prior to a recent meeting with his client, he believed there was no chance Wagner would accept.  Wagner loved his experience with the Red Sox enough that it's now a possibility.  Stringfellow "fully anticipates" an arbitration offer by the Red Sox.  Wagner is a Type A free agent, so the Sox will snag two draft picks if he declines the offer and signs elsewhere.

Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports learned from Stringfellow that six teams called about Wagner so far, all of them interested in him as a closer.  The writers noted that the Tigers, Astros, Rays, Orioles, and Braves have the need.

Looks like a win-win here. He accepts and we get another year of what seemed to be a rejuvenated Billy Wagner. Otherwise we go back to the original draft picks outcome. Nice.

Because Baseball Traditionalists are a cowardly and superstitious lot, I will become an icon of fear. I take up the mantle of the Stat. For I... am Learning. I... am the Math. I... am STATMAN!

See the continuing adventures of Statman and Divisor, his trusted companion, as the Formulaic Duo! Tonight they face their greatest foe yet, the Scioscier!!

Divisor: Leaping limits, Statman! Someone's crashed World of Warcraft! WoW's an integral part of my life - I don't know what else I'd do on Friday nights after working hard at school. I might have to take that hot chick Betty to a movie like she keeps asking me to!
Statman: Worry not, chum. We'll save WoW, protect you from a social life, and get you back to leveling your undead mage by Midnight! To the Statmobile!

[Statman and Divisor drive to the scene of the crime.]

Commissioner Selig: As you can see, Statman, someone turned off the servers, and then arranged them into this pattern...

[Statman looks at the toppled servers, his superior sabermetric skills at work.]

Statman: Radii... circumference... Great Scott! It looks like a circle... But wait... there's nothing inside it. It looks more like... [gasp] a Halo!... But who could have committed this nefarious deed?

[With a high-pitched laugh, a caped conspirator appears on a ledge above them. A flash of lightning illuminates his fearsome figure!]

Scioscier: It is I, Statman, your newest, greatest foe - the Scioscier!
Divisor: Querulous Quotient, Statman! He looks just like John McCain!
Scioscier: Hahahaha! You stand no chance against me! I will rule the night, and you will rue the day! My speedy minions will destroy you! Attack Aybar, Scone and Abreu!

[Three lithe delinquents dart onto the scene, menacing Statman.]

Statman: You forgot to factor something into your equation - Statarangs! They'll cross multiply your problems!

[He tosses Plus Sign Shurikens at the malcontents, knocking them out.]

Divisor: Divide and conquer! Ha!
Scioscier: You may have bested my speedsters, but you'll never defeat, The LACKEY!

[The ground thunders as Statman and Divisor turn to see a massive, bloated form emerge from the shadows.]

Divisor: Suffering sequential sets, Statman! That monster is growing exponentially!
Statman: Then we'll just have to get to the Square Root of the problem! Statman to Statmobile - fire the Log Gun!

KABLAMO!!!!

[The LACKEY shrinks to a height of two feet.]

Divisor: Nice work, Statman. Now, he's just a fraction of himself!
Scioscier: Rats! You may have foiled me today, but I'll best you next offseason! ... All I need is more speedy centerfielders!!!

[The Scioscier shrinks away, as the Formulaic Duo turn on the servers again. Meanwhile, Commissioner Selig comes out from hiding.]

Selig: You've saved us, Statman! How can I ever thank you?
Statman: It was nothing, Commissioner. Although... you could contribute some money to Bruce NotStatman's Excel Spreadsheets for Tots Foundation - I hear they do good work. But in the meantime, as long as there is someone menacing the sport of baseball, or the world of MMORPGs, I'll be at the ready!
Divisor: That reminds me, I should cancel that date with Betty tonight. I really want to do that new Isle of the Burning Pelicans quest!
Statman: [patting his enormous, engorged chest] Hahaha! That's the way, lad. To the stat-mobile! I bet my Paladin can PK you any day!

THE END.

Or is it? Tune in next week to find out!

I check out MLB trade rumors a lot, and they recently posted MLB's to 50 FAs and predictions for their destinations.  Take it with a grain of salt but, I thought some of these predictions would make for an interesting discussion.  Here's who they have landing with the Red Sox:

3.  Jason Bay - Red Sox.  It's been rumored the Red Sox are willing to offer four years and $60MM to Bay.  That seems to be a fair opening bid, given his defensive struggles.

8.  Marco Scutaro - Red Sox.  It's difficult to place Scutaro, because not many teams with shortstop vacacies will be willing to pay the three years and $18MM+ he'll likely demand.  The Sox would be getting the best available shortstop here, but they could instead choose Jed Lowrie and/or Alex Gonzalez.

10.  Rich Harden - Red Sox.  A one-year deal with a $7MM base salary would be difficult for Harden to resist.  His injuries are maddening, but he leads free agent starters with a 10.9 K/9.

17.  Aroldis Chapman - Red Sox.  They've been heavily involved with Chapman from the start, and may consider him a long-term investment worth more than $20MM.

32.  Tim Wakefield - Red Sox.  Wakefield had back surgery in October, but the Red Sox will probably still view him as a bargain at $4MM.

Here's the link if you want to check out the other predictions.

Obviously Tim Wakefield is a done deal, and I agree that the Sox will sign Bay in the end, but I have trouble believing that they would sign all three of the others.  I love the Chapman idea.  Our farm system has no one that will be ready in a year or two, and Chapman would fill that void.

Harden was a decent SP last year for the Cubs (9-9, 4.09 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 171K/67BB, 141 IP), but he could add some great depth to our rotation.  You can never have too much pitching, and adding Harden would give us 6 SP, with Chapman likely spending time in the minors.

Idk how I feel about Scutaro, but with a lack of other options, he's probably out best bet.

2010

Rotation: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Dice-K, Harden or Wakefield.

Lineup: Ells, Pedroia, VMart, Youk, Bay, Ortiz, Lowell, Drew, Scutaro.

Greetings fellow Over the Monster readers,

I write about the MLB Draft for Examiner.com and am hoping to direct some traffic to my first post on the top 15 high school MLB draft prospects.  Please feel free to comment (preferably on my site, but I'm happy to respond here as well).

Here is some information about me:

Jesse Burkhart, 23, is a North Carolina resident and a former correspondent for Baseball America.  He attended USA Baseball's Tournament of Stars in Cary, N.C. and the East Coast Pro Showcase in Lakeland, FL in 2009, and he regularly attends other high school and college baseball games along the east coast.  He recently graduated from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill with a degree in Journalism & Mass Communication.  You can contact him at jesse.burkhart@gmail.com.

Thanks for reading,

Jesse

                                                                                                                                                                                                        twitter | jesseburkhart     AIM | jb02186

According to Rob Bradford of WEEI, the Sox will not pick up Wake's perpetual $4 million option.

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