I'd just like to point out that Beckett has sucked regardless of the catcher

isn't the pitching terrible no matter who goes out there? how can you possibly blame a manager for his pitchers not throwing strikes (or, if they do, it's an awful pitch and gets hammered) and his batters hitting terribly with runners in scoring position?

the only reason to shake anything up is this team is not going to the playoffs. my eyes were opened this past weekend: the boston red sox have no pitching and they obviously overachieved before the all star break. let's be honest... they aren't that good.

well... there's always next year.

note: david ortiz has to be the mvp now. this team would be far under 500 if it weren't for him. i think him legging out that double after the ball bounced over giambi's head displayed his desire is far greater than most of this team.

I am the first to criticize Francona.  And, he deserves it.  Timlin is done.  Sad to say it, but it is true.  The WBC did him in and he is 40+? years old.  Francona has screwed up several games this season.  In fact, the ESPN guys said it best.  They said we needed the game last night.  We did.  And, they figured Papelbon would come out in the eighth.  He did not.  Francona thinks too much.  But, this collapse is NOT entirely his fault.

Theo Epstein deserves to take all the heat on this.  Francona is saddled with a weak pitching staff and a bad bullpen. He can only do so much with what he has.  Here is my point...not signing Damon was ridiculous and the first mistake.  The master plan?  Replace him with Coco Crisp.  Nice move.  What has Damon done this year?  Hmmm.  He's hitting close to .300.  has 20 home runs and sees a ton of pitches, helping the other hitters.  God I hate Damon, but the Sox blew it on this one.  Crisp just blows.  He cannot get on base and we gave up a top prospect for him in Andy Marte.

Now, you can all blast me for this one but...trading Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett is another huge mistake.  Until Beckett learns HOW to pitch, he is gonna be in trouble.  This is the bigs, Josh.  They can hit a fastball.  You cannot blow it by good hitters anymore.  Can you please mix some other pitches in there, please?  Hanley Ramirez has turned out to be a pretty productive player in Florida.  And, to top it off...we extend Beckett for three years?

Mistake 3.  Look, I could go on and on about the mistakes this year.  But, the bullpen is a freaking nightmare. Seanez (gone now), Tavarez, Delcarmen, Foulke, Hansen.  Geez.  Bad, just plain bad.  The mistake is believing that this bullpen could carry you the rest of the way.  How can you sit at the deadline and do nothing?  The Yankees pitching is woeful too.  But, they go out and get a bat like Abreu and a hitter like Wilson to hide their pitching deficiencies (and gave up next to nothing to get them).  What does Theo do?  Nothing.  C'mon.  Our players are untouchable?  Who?  Delcarmen, Lester, Hansen?  Why?  Are you kidding me?  If these guys are our future, I am not excited.

Finally, I am not going to go into detail on the Arroyo-Wily Mo deal.  It has been beaten to death.  OK, I will...arghhhhh!  Every time I see Wily in the box I think about the movie Major League.  Remember the scene during training camp when Cerrano is taking batting practice?  He is hitting the ball out of the park on every swing and crushing it.  The manager says, "Holy crap, this guy can crush the ball.  Why has nobody signed him"? The other guy says, "Throw him some breaking balls".  That, my friends is Wily Mo...not to mention his stellar defensive play.  Hey, Arroyo has come down to earth, but as far as pitching depth it would be nice to have him.

In my opinion, when you lose by an average of 10 runs for three straight games, it's beyond being caused by just two managerial moves. It's also beyond being caused by the GM not making an eyewash trade at the deadline. Which is not to say that the manager / GM haven't been a factor--but this weekend, it's safe to say that the players themselves are simply falling down on the job. And it's not just one or two of them--it's practically ALL of them, but especially the bullpen. You could make a case for Theo having put this team together, and therefore being to blame, but Jesus H., did ANYBODY think Beckett was going to stink up the joint this bad? Did ANYBODY think Tavarez would be quite so bad?

Now we're all second-guessing if the Sox should've resigned the veterans, like Pedro and Derek Lowe. Admittedly Derek is having a nice year, and Pedro has continued to show flashes of brilliance. But both are doing this in the National League. I personally think Pedro is pretty well washed up...and he's only going to get worse. As for Derek...well...let's just say I don't miss the D.Lowe Face and if you don't think you would have been seeing it this weekend, you're kidding yourself.

Bronson Arroyo is what he is. It would be nice given the injuries to our starting rotation to have him in there, but unless you can show me that on the day of the trade you anticipated what would happen to our rotation, nobody's psychic. Wily Mo is not quite as bad as "throw him some breaking balls" and he is getting better. We will be glad to have him once Manny's contract is up and someone has to hit for power behind Big Papi.

Ultimately, the biggest difference here, to me, is the loss of Jason Varitek. That's the single factor you can point to that's different between when this team was playing decent baseball and their current pathetic state of affairs. With the way the bullpen has been absolutely falling all over itself, I think it's clear he was more of a factor, especially with the young pitchers, than we ever even dreamed he was.

So, if you want to figure out who's to blame for the cartilage in his knee blowing out, you know, go ahead.

Or you could just accept that through a combination of many, many factors, few of which are under anyone's control in any way whatsoever, this season has not turned out the way we wanted it to so far.

Why is it so important to find one scapegoat? Sometimes it's not that easy.

Well, I beg to differ about Wily Mo.  He has been awful lately.  There is no sugar coating this one.  And, yes pitchers know he cannot hit a curveball, which is why he strikes out 7 out of 10 plate appearances...

As for Varitek's injury being the problem...I would have to disagree with that also.  He does manage the pitching staff better than Mirabelli and Lopez, but the team ERA was not that much better with Varitek in there.  In fact, he hasn't been calling games that great this year.  And, it's not as if he was hitting the cover off the ball. Seriously, if our success is hinging on a catcher, we are in big, big trouble going forward.

Beth, you did not read my entire post.  I did not blame the team's failure on no deadline deals.  There were several "deals" and "non-deals" made by Epstein.  If we are banking on the future of Hansen, Lester, Delcarmen, etc...I am sorry, but what I have seen from these guys, they certainly SHOULD NOT have been untouchable at the deadline.  C'mon, Hansen cannot get little leaguers out, Lester walks everyone and Delcarmen has been just plain bad.  As Big Papi said, "We need help".  There was solid, dependable pitching to be had at the deadline and Epstein sat on his "untouchables".  Damon wanted to stay (for 4 years), but we made a bad decision on that.  We thought we had too many pitchers (you can never have too much pitching) so we traded Arroyo. I also NEVER mentioned Lowe and Pedro.

I couldn't agree more, I already went in depth on it in the "Lemonade" diary, but to recap, I agree the Tek being out has made a TREMENDOUS difference in all the young players (and when you have a pitching pen made-up of mostly youngens, that's gonna hurt) Remember that before he went down we were playing pretty well, remember that up until a couple weeks ago we were on top the league for most the season despite a 5th starter that consisted of a rotating trial pitchers that were all failures. Wells and Schilling are our only GOOD veterans pitchers, and they're the only one's that seem unaffected by Teks absesnce (even Papelbon had dropped from being absolutely dominant to just merely great). Sure Beckett might have been overvalued, but how the hell do you ever predict him falling off the map? And talk about hypocricy, yelling at Theo for standing still at the trade deadline while blaming him for the Beckett trade, last fall there was no good SP on the FA market, the fact that we were able to land any decent SP was celebrated, Steinbrenner was even quoted after signing Damon that he would have rather been able to make the Beckett deal like we were able to. Don't yell at Theo for giving up prospects for Beckett now just because in hind-sight he's sucked, and then yell at him for not giving up prospects now. Remember that Wells was a solid back of the rotation pitcher last year and Clement was an All-star before the break, how do you predict them both being practically out for the season? GO out and get another bat? Why? until the hitting marathon that we gave the Yankees, we had the most Runs in MLB. What would have looked different this last weekend, instead of 4-12/11-14/5-13/5-8 we maybe could have pulled out one win out of the two games that were even close? Would that really help in the playoffs when most games our pitching gets blown out of the water by power-hitting teams like ChiSox, Yankees, and Tigers?

And since there's no open thread yet for the game currently being played, I just want to point out that before Ortiz grounded out, first to pitcher, Lidle threw him five pitches out of the strike zone and the blind ump called two of them strikes. How can a pitch be a strike when it's six inches off the plate?

Actually...Lester and Delcarmen have sucked monkeys also.  Delcarmen average?  Please.  By the way guys, the Yankees gave up a bucket of freaking balls for Abreu,(which we could have given up)who by the way is killing us.  And I suppose getting Oswalt for one or two of our "untouchables" would have been a bad deal? I know hindsight is 20/20, but our "untouchables" have sucked monkeys...period.  You think Georgie would like to take that statement back? Would have rather had Beckett as opposed to Damon?  hmmmm...

The problem with the 2006 team is that it was built to compete this season while keeping the big picture (2007 and beyond) as the focal point. This is not really a problem, except for impatient fans who think losing one quality season by Damon is the end of the world. Theo and Co. are playing for next year, as evidenced by the lack of deals at the deadline, and the relative inactivity of the club after the Abreu trade to NY. Just like in 2004 when Epstein decided the Red Sox would not advance without improving upon their defense, he made the decision that this Red Sox team was not going to be changed into a real contender in the American League by making an extra deal or two while dealing away the future. Could they have made the playoffs by dealing away Lester or Hansen for a name player? It's completely possible. Is it worth it in the long run? I'd like to think it isn't. I'm looking forward to the next few years of talented youngsters and a purging of the roster of most of the older talent, outside of Ramirez and Ortiz. If you want to complain about one season where the Sox may miss the playoffs while still winning 92 games, well that's your problem.

It is obvious the Red Sox overachieved in the first half. You could see it happening. They destroyed the National League, and they only lost one game to Baltimore. What was their record outside of that? They are 18-24 versus the AL East minus Baltimore, and 24-27 versus the rest of the AL. That's 42-51 for those keeping score at home. Even if you add Baltimore back into the equation (as I don't like subtracting things like that out to make a point) the Sox are still only 53-52. Injuries have had a significant impact on the club, which is part of the reason for the club's record looking as poor as it has under this type of scrutiny. You can blame Theo for not having the depth to makeup for these injuries, but in truth, even the depth was injured or just plain ineffective.

The Crisp deal is not yet a mistake. I'd like to see what Crisp can do with a full healthy season, and Damon is going to decline before the end of his large contract. If we had re-signed him, he would still be patrolling center field in a few years when the team is devoid of most of the older talent, anchored instead by younger players. Does that make much sense? What was a mistake was trading Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. I wasn't a fan of the deal when it occured, but that was when I thought Beckett would have a Run Average in the mid-to-high 4's. Since he decided to stop throwing his curveball in order to make 35 starts instead of 20-25, he just plain sucks, no way around stating it that way. I was also not a fan of taking on Lowell's contract, but his defense has been fantastic, even if his offense has fallen to previous levels of disapointment. Don't believe me? He's hitting .266/.324/.407 since June 1, which isn't good at all, but at least he's playing spectacular defense at third (best in the league according to the defensive figures I use). Lowell's OPS is in line with more than half of his 2004 season and a little above his awful 2005 campaign. Take a look at this graph:

That's his month-by-month OPS since April of 2004. He's been consistently in that .700 range for a great length of time during the past few years. I like Lowell, thanks to his defense, but I just want it to be taken into account that he most likely isn't the star player many fans thought the Sox had acquired after his torrid start to the season; as you can also see with this graph, it's not uncommon for Lowell to have a fantastic month out of the blue to skew his overall line for the rest of the year.

Trading Cla Meredith to get Mirabelli back is definitely something that stings, especially with the bullpen problems on the team nowadays, but it was re-acquire Mirabelli or suffer through Bard attempting to catch Wakefield. I can't really blame the front office for that in any way other than underestimating how much Mirabelli made Wake's job easier.

The Yankees were a better team at the deadline, one that had not overachieved and would also be healthy first. When they added Bobby Abreu to the picture, the Sox front office seems to have officially thrown in the towel for 2006. You can't just say that you've given up to the Boston fans or media though, and it's true the Sox still have a team capable of contending this year, even with the blowout series putting them at their lowest point of the season. The fact that people are blaming the front office for this rather than looking at the big picture is what really bothers me, much more than the fact that this team I love might not make the playoffs. I'd like to think ownership is too intelligent to let the rash of negativity from the media and many Sox fans ruin a good thing. If they let it get to them, Sox fans have themselves to blame.

The kids have been rushed, and will hopefully be given a chance to finish their development normally after this mess clears up. It's not Tito's fault that Lester hadn't figured out AAA batters before coming to the majors, or that David Pauley wasn't capable of holding a starting spot, or that DiNardo got hurt and put Lester into the picture, or that Beckett is so stubborn that he refuses to throw his out pitch. I cannot believe someone is really advocating "shaking things up" and removing Francona. Sensationalist bullshit, get some perspective.

Nobody suggested removing Francona (at least I didn't).  Marc, you say talented youngsters?  Who specifically? Lester, Delcarmen, Hansen?  Are you serious?  "I'd like to think ownership is too intelligent to let the rash of negativity from the media and many Sox fans ruin a good thing.Specifically, WHAT GOOD THING?  getting humiliated and bitch slapped by the Yankees?  Look, if you enjoy winning 90 games a year and coming in second place to the Yankees more than 98% of the time and not making the playoffs, well good for you.  As far as the Crisp deal, bad.  Just plain bad. I don't.

Do you all work for the front office?  Yes, according to all of your comments, the Crisp deal was a bad deal.  We gave up a top notch prospect for an underachieving centerfielder whose OBP is low and has an arm equally as bad as Damon.

Thanks Marc, I didn't even think to bother to look at Marte's numbers this year, great point, honestly his numbers aren't great

Very nice outing by Wells, very poor catching by Lopez, very promising outing for Foulke, another horrible day leading off by Coco.

Why didn't Youk pinch hit for either Cora or Coco in  the bottom of the 9th?

This is what I wrote about Timlin after the season last year:

He wasn't awful last year, but he was much worse than his traditional numbers indicated. This year just hammers that point home, sadly.

Thank you Marc and realistic for soem constructive points of view.  Thanks also, cblesz, for representing the AM radio call-in crowd. Always good to hear your deeply-considered views.
When I'm at my most frustrated about the Sox and Yankees, I do an exercise in which I try to put together any combination of teams whose payroll would equal the Yankees, and combine the rosters.  It's hard not put together a team that wouldn't beat the Yankees regularly.

A simpler project: a $100 million in other team payroll to the Sox and see if the roster doesn't beat the Yankees every day.  

We have overplayed this year and we're underplaying spectacularly right now.  The trade deadline brought a four player turnover - they get Abreu and Lidle, we lose Varitek and Nixon.  We were slightly bewtter than them before, and now we're clearly worse.  That was pure bad luck.

Not to mention his ERA last year was in stark contract to his numbers for all the other years with the Sox (in fact 2004 was worse then it currently is) yet we niavely wanted to believe last year was his standard, not his exception

Sorry if you think my concerns are unwarranted.  But, someone is to blame for this mess.  Certainly Francona makes a ton of mistakes.  But, he is given the players.  And, according to the embarrassment this weekend, as a whole those players are not good right now.  If you guys want to "wait until the kids blossom", enjoy.  I certainly do not like being taken to the woodshed by the Yankees.

Three quick directed comments that I think are relevant to everyone here:

1) To alfredoz:  If you're stocking your $100 million team with minimum wage stars like Pronk and David Wright, that's not a fair exercise.  Those guys come out of the farm; you can't expect to draft or trade for two or three Lirianos a year.  Build your $100 million team with projected / estimated free agent contracts.

2) To britsoxfan:  "2007 or bust. I can stand a few years rebuilding."  Didn't we hear something similar in 2004?  It's 2006, now...  Point shown.  A "few years" rebuilding sounds a lot better when it's "sometime later".  FO knows that.  Their error, here, is not being able to commit to winning or rebuilding.  Straddling the middle is baseball's version of horseraces.  You might get lucky and win.  You might also flare out on the last turn and disappear quietly.

And most relevant:

3) To everyone squatting on Delcarmen, Hansen, Lester for struggling in their rookie season...  Let's package them up and send them off for a guy like Tom Gordon.  That'll teach 'em!

three simple steps to improve this franchise dramatically:

1. don't get a single free agent hitter not currently on this team in the offseason. stay pat on what we have. let nixon go, wily takes his place. let marky-mark go and let pedroia take his place. re-sign gonzo. re-sign cora as our utility infielder.
2. now that we haven't spent excessive amounts on hitters, SIGN SOME PITCHERS. one starting pitcher of great quality, preferrably zito and i wouldn't mind giving him a 4/50 type deal or perhaps even a little more, and 2 quality relief pitchers that have had consistent success. if we can't get them via free agency, make trades. we need a reliable pen more than almost anything else.
3. if at next year's trade deadline quality guys are available who will be free agents after the season - go for it. roy oswalt and big z are among those players who might be available. chris carpenter will also be a 2007 free agent, but i suspect the cardinals may want to keep him, regardless of his high price tag.

in summation: what i want this team to focus on for the next two seasons and offseasons is pitching. pitching, pitching, pitching. we are 69-55. the oakland a's are 70-54. the a's are 24th in runs scored and have a 3-4 punch that reads some combination of milton bradley, the big hurt and nick swischer. they have given up the third fewest runs in baseball, though.

PITCHING!

Being a huge Redsox fan, living for from Fenway, I've enjoyed finding this site and getting the perspective of other Bosox fans.  For the most part I just read and think, but this debate all but jerks me up out of the chair.  I am 30 year avid MLB baseball fan and a ten year expereinced high school baseball coach.  If there's one thing I have learned with time and expereience is that a manger sets a tone and attitude for any team.  One must look no futher than Leyland and the Tigers to get my point.  The Tigers are young ang talented but not as good on paper as they are in the standings.  Someone has them playing great ball and fearing no one.  One can look at every single move the front office has made and see some strong logic.  Beckett, Coco, others have had success in the past and are not without strong past resumes.  This year Redsox team is counting on some young, talented arms and have placed them in some tough spots.  However, all players but maybe three/four are greatly underplaying their ability level.  This team has one consisitent theme lately.  It can not find a way to win a big game.  The starting pitching may be stellar to only be let down by a lack of offense.  The offense might score 8 runs but see the bullpen walk in three runs to lose the game.  Past Ortiz, remirez, and Loretta, no can deliver a big hit in prime time.  We can lose 12 to 10 or 2 to 1.  The point is this team is not achieving at its ability level and the buck stops with the manager.  I can't believe one can say Beckett can't pitch.  I've seen him dominant many games before this year and I think he'll dominate again.  coco is an up and coming player who I think the Redsox would be shortminded to give up too early on.  Francona, in my mind must prove that he can consistently put a team on the field that has a fighter's confident, focused attitude.  A team that finds ways to win big games not lose them.  
How can I rag on a guy who delivered the greatest championship to the Redsox nation you ask?  Well I wathced every pitch of that series and I saw magic happen.  The type of magic that leads a team to believe that it's their destiny to win.  That magic was created by one main soul.  And that is the soul of Ortiz.  What he delivered down 0-3 for the sox was incredible.  Infact, I actually fault Francona for getting us down 0-3.  The fact that magic could rally us to a world championship is evidence enough that we should have nver been down that far.  Then there is last year where I felt like the Redsox team all but laid down to the White Sox.  We were dismal.   Enough said.  The buck stops with the manger.  great managers find ways to get their players to overachieve, and mediocre mangers don't.  It clear with any sport.  They may not win every year, but you know you have to beat them cause their teams find ways to win not lose.      

There have been many spot on comments, and frankly, I can't compete with those here that are MUCH more knowledgeable of stats/trades etc.

BUT--given the state of the front office early last winter, and decision to "GM by committtee" before Theo returned, am I the only one here that finds it remarkable that the Sox have been as competitive as they have been this year?  There's a lot to be said for team chemistry, and I'm not sure it's been as tight this year as was last year.

Final thought--I don't think anyone can't discount the importance of Jason Varitek calling the games for his pitchers.  It's clear they have confidence in him, and his presense on the field binds the team together.  While he can provide leadership in the dugout while on the DL, it's not the same as providing leadership on the field; especially in situations when he has to calm our rookie bullpen in high pressure situations.

I mean, I hate Red Sox Nation like any good Yanks fan, but you guys are giving up way too early.  I recall a few short years ago when the Yanks held a 3-0 playoff series lead, with a total lambasting in game 3, and we all know what unfortunately happened after that.  I am also old enough to have fond memories of the 1978 season when the Yanks erased a 14 game deficit in the middle of July culminating in the wonderful and wondrous Bucky Dent HR.  So why can't the Sox overcome a 6 and a half game deficit in the middle of August?  

The Yanks are shaky on several fronts, just like your team.  This race isn't over.  And another thing - The way Detroit is starting to play it wouldn't surprise me (OK, maybe a little surprise) if the Yanks and Bosox both make the playoffs, the Chisox win the Central, and Detroit doesn't even make the playoffs.  It's a stretch, but stranger things have happened.

Anyway, I think it is still a pennant race.  And if the Yanks are going to win it, I'd rather them beat you Massholes, or lose to you Massholes, in the playoffs as opposed to the regular season.  So keep the faith, because this is not over IMO.

I wonder how the players feel about the lack of pitching and the failure of the front office to acquire more at the trade dealine?

We've certainly given up at least two of the best prospects we've had during Theo's tenure...and received relatively little in return: Hanley Ramirez and Kelly Shoppach.

Hanley Ramirez (SS) was let go as part of the Beckett deal.

Kelly Shoppach (C) was let go as part of the Coco deal.

Now Coco is a good player, but he's no Damon and the more I think about it we might have made use of Shoppach with Varitek out.

Oh, and don't get me started about the failure to sign Damon.  But just for giggles: Damon is making about what Beckett is--and that's just not right.

Here's another brilliant front office move.  Doug Mirabelli for Josh Bard and Cla Meredith.  I just watched Meredith pitch in San Diego.  Unfreaking believable.  He's certainly not the same Cla Meredith that got spanked last year...Meredith has a 1.07 era and Bard is hitting .325 with a slugging % of .510.  Mirabelli is hitting .197

ehm... those of us who kinda sorta considered bringing in lilly this offseason may want to think again. turns out he's batshit crazy. when gibbons pulled him from yesterday's game against the a's, lilly not only yelled at gibson but when the manager followed him into the clubhouse after he had left the mound, they kinda... brawled. ;)

it's all on mlb.tv for those who have it and i expect it to be on deadspin sometime today ;)

I can't believe what a bunch of pessimists Sox fans are.  It's as if 2004 never happened.  Only the New York fan who posted up above has a grasp on the situation.

I'm especially amazed that no one sees how crucially important Varitek is to the pitching staff.

Here are the facts:

There are six weeks left in the season.  Sox have four more games against the Yankees.  Sox have swept at Yankee stadium in recent past (2004?  2005?).

Sox have played most of the season without starting pitchers Wells, Wakefield and Clement, and have played their worst baseball since Varitek and Nixon went out.

Since Varitek has been out, the young guns (Beckett, Lester, DelCarmen, Hansen, etc.) have floundered.  The only exception being Papelbon but he's a force of nature.  If Varitek returns healthy, the pitching will greatly improve, especially the young guns, who need Varitek to perform, period.

Trot Nixon, Yankee killer and the Sox's third best clutch hitter (behind Ortiz and Youkilis), has been out, but will (hopefully) be back around the same time as Varitek.

Wakefield should be back then also.

Schilling, Wells and Foulke pitched very well against the Yankees.

Forecast for September: Varitek comes back healthy, as does Wakefield and Nixon.  The young guns resume pitching the way they did in the first half of the season, thanks to Varitek's guidance.  Red Sox have at least four solid starters in Schilling, Wells, Beckett and Wakefield.  Foulke is a solid set-up man, Papelbon is best closer in game.  Nixon starts clobbering the ball like he did in the first half of the season.  The Yankees, having peaked too early in August, start slumping in September.  Red Sox take three of four at Yankee stadium and make the playoffs.

QED