FanPost

Fix the Red Sox offense - mostly, by waiting

In this week's FanPost Friday, OOLF asks us how we would fix the Red Sox offense. Here is my four-pronged approach to doing just that.

1. Wait.

Wait for luck to turn their way. Given what they've been producing at the plate in terms of walks, singles, doubles, triples, home runs, hit-by-pitch, stolen bases, and caught stealings (with some variations in what's included in this list), every major run projection system, plus another pretty darn good one that only I know about (and hope to share soon), ranks the Red Sox as one of the four unluckiest teams in terms of runs produced versus expected runs produced thus far. The consensus seems to be that they're scoring about 0.4 runs per 9 innings below what you'd expect for what they've produced at the plate. Here are the unluckiest 10 teams with their runs scored below what's expected in 9 innings, through Saturday's games, according to the top nonlinear run estimator Base runs, and the top linear run estimator Extrapolated Runs.

Base Runs rbe
Reds 0.153
Giants 0.167
Dodgers 0.204
Astros 0.283
Pirates 0.312
Athletics 0.340
Rays 0.388
Red Sox 0.393
Cardinals 0.407
Royals 0.418

Extrapolated Runs rbe
Reds 0.121
Dodgers 0.168
Giants 0.186
Royals 0.203
Pirates 0.235
Astros 0.253
Athletics 0.277
Rays 0.284
Red Sox 0.313
Cardinals 0.409

Of the other most accurate run estimators, the linear NERP and highly nonlinear one that currently only I know about both put the Red Sox at 3rd unluckiest and right near 0.4 runs below expected; four others, the nonlinears Runs Created - technical and Runs Created 2002, and runs based on WRAA and Equivalent Average (which both use linear variations from league averages) have the Red Sox as overall unluckiest, with the first two of those also at 0.4 runs, and the other two even higher.

So if the Sox keep doing what they're doing, more runs should come, about 10% more.

2. Wait.

Wait for the home runs to come back. I looked at ZIPs projections of rates of home runs per plate appearance for all the Red Sox 9 lineup regulars, plus Christian Vazquez, Chris Young, and Brock Holt. Of these 12 players, only Pablo Sandoval (at +1.3 home runs) and Andrew Benintendi (at +0.8 home runs) had more home runs than expected based on number of plate appearances through Saturday's games; and that includes a two home run surge by Benintendi since OOLF set this weekend's FanPost theme Friday morning. Sandy Leon is at his projected 1 home run; the other nine are all below pace, with Benintendi being the tenth just two days before. As a group, their 14 home runs through Saturday were 7.6 home runs below the projected pace.

So if the Sox start doing what they're projected to do, at least 50% more home runs will come, and a lot more runs with them.

3. Start playing Christian Vazquez more.

And the Red Sox seem to have just done this. Before the recent Cubs series, Vazquez had more hits and more total bases than Leon in about half the at bats. Now having played the entire Cubs series, he's widened that gulf to about 50% more hits and total bases in about 2/3 as many at bats. I've said it many times here in the past two months that I think Vazquez comes into this season with an improved bat, that he'll eventually have an above-average bat, and predicted he'd be the primary catcher coming out of the All-Star break this year (with Leon as his backup). His numbers so far are not proof of this, and I do believe they'll fall quite a bit from where they are, but I think they'll settle in to average-bat-level numbers. Right now he's hot. Ride the hot hand. I think Vazquez will continue to justify that decision even after this hot spell is over.

4. Fix third base.

If you must make an active change, make it at third base. I had a lot of hope for Pablo Sandoval coming into this season, and power aside, his numbers have been quite disappointing. Marco Hernandez has done okay filling in, but brings anemic power to a traditionally power spot. Waiting for Rafael Devers doesn't help you this season, and we are talking about the 2017 Red Sox here. Unlike Benintendi, whose extra development in college allowed him to skip AAA without troubles, Devers is right at the level he needs to be at, and likely wouldn't fare well in the majors this year. Sam Travis may be a corner infielder, but he's never played third base, likely because he doesn't have the arm for it. Michael Chavis is too far away. So we can either wait for Holt, Sandoval, or Hernandez to up their game, or we can go out and get somebody.

What will probably happen is we see what those three guys have become by mid July, and then go out and get a half-year rental if those guys aren't up to snuff. Devers should arrive soon enough after 2017 to justify going with a short-term fill-in versus something longer term, and non-contending teams are always motivated to get something for their impending free agents. Not sure what this year's inventory will look like off the top of my head, though I know it will not include Manny Machado. Plus we're still likely to have Sandoval through the end of his own contract, unless the Sox can include Sandoval in this trade by eating most of his contract.

No, that won't happen. Too much money to eat there, and not the kind of player sellers will be seeking.

Perhaps, in the end, thanks to that really big contract that's got nearly three years left on it, what ends up happening at third base is we wait.