The first half is officially in the books, and overall the Red Sox find themselves in strong position. They're currently 11 games above .500, two games back of the division-leading Orioles, and hold the top spot in the wild card race. They’ve done so despite some weird injury luck that has sapped at their depth all season. Craig Kimbrel going down is just the latest in a long line of injuries that started in the spring with Carson Smith. The latter was a devastating blow early in the year that threatened to drastically change the team’s overall bullpen plans.
Since that moment, there has been a lot of talk about who was going to replace Smith on the roster. He wasn’t the best reliever — it’s hard to claim that title when Kimbrel is on the same roster — but he was arguably the most important non-closer. He can just do so much, and could’ve served multiple roles if/when he was healthy. A few of the potential replacements have shown some flashes at various points in the year`, with Heath Hembree and Matt Barnes producing the best performances. While they’ve been mostly fine — and sometimes better than that — it wouldn’t be fair to call them true replacements for the theoretical value of Smith. Then, over the weekend, Dave Dombrowksi pulled the trigger on his biggest trade of the season to date, bringing in former Arizona closer Brad Ziegler. In the 36-year-old, the Red Sox may have finally found their Smith replacement.
We’ll start with the obvious: Ziegler isn’t as good of a pitcher as Smith. Based on what the latter showed in 2015, he was one of the truly elite relievers in all of baseball. Ziegler is simply very good. Specifically, they are separated by strikeout ability. While Smith can rack up strikeouts with some of the top arms in the game, one would guess Ziegler is on his way out of baseball if they were only to look at his K numbers. In this regard, Hembree and Barnes continue to take the reins as the unofficial official Smith replacements.
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However, as we’ve seen since the season has gone on, the strikeout generally hasn’t been something the back-end of the Red Sox bullpen is missing even with Smith’s absence. They’re certainly not the Yankees’ relief corps, but Kimbrel, Uehara and Tazawa are all fine at inducing whiffs. No, the biggest thing that’s been missed about Smith’s game has been his ability to induce ground balls.
In this regard, Ziegler is the ideal replacement. There simply aren’t many pitchers around the league who keep the ball on the ground at a better rate than Boston’s newest arm. Among all pitchers with at least 20 innings this year, he’s induced the fifth-highest ground ball rate per Baseball Prospectus. This isn’t a new thing, either. He ranked second last year, and he’s had exactly one season in his career with a rate under 62 percent. This is the biggest — perhaps the only — reason he’s the owner of the 18th best ERA since the start of last year among qualified relievers despite having fewer strikeouts per nine innings than all but four of those pitchers.
Photo Credit: Bob DeChiara
Now, there is probably some skepticism about Ziegler being able to contribute as well to a team in the AL East as he’s heading over from an NL West team. It’s a fair concern on the surface, as the two divisions couldn’t be more different in terms of aesthetic. However, he does have a long track record of doing this in Arizona, which is much more hitter-friendly than the other parks in that division.
Additionally, he has the repertoire that suggests he can keep up this ground ball-heavy approach against any and all competition. Unsurprisingly, he relies heavily on a sinker as well as a changeup, both of which induce ground balls over half the time. As they are both pitches with natural downward movement, it makes sense that a pitcher who leans on these offerings will keep the ball on the ground and limit damage. Even better, he’s become something of a master of keeping the ball down. Check out his zone profile from the last three seasons. One could argue it’s a true work of art.
This is an addition the Red Sox desperately needed in their bullpen. As I’ve mentioned a few times now, Hembree and Barnes have been admirably solid for most of the year. However, neither of them can produce anything approaching Ziegler’s ground ball rate. In fact, neither can Kimbrel, Uehara and Tazawa. All of Boston’s primary relievers this year have been fly ball guys, which hasn’t hurt them a ton, but it’s not the safest strategy for an AL East team. It’s the kind of strategy that makes a bullpen the worst at inducing ground balls in all of baseball, which is a true statement about the Red Sox relievers per Fangraphs, and that's certainly not what you want when you need a chance at a key double play above all else.
Smith was supposed to play a huge role on this team given his combination of strikeouts and ground balls, two key qualities in helping a team get out of big jams late in games. It’s really hard to find pitchers who can do both around the league, so the replacement needs to come in pieces. The Red Sox haven’t had problems finding the strikeout arms in their own organization (and San Diego’s, in Kimbrel’s case), but the ground ballers were nowhere to be found. Zieger fills that massive hole. It’s hard to say exactly how well he can replace Smith for now, at least while Kimbrel is on the shelf. Ziegler will likely be saved for later innings for now, which throws a bit of a wrench into his potential value. Down the stretch, however, when the team is (hopefully) trying to put the finishing touches on a playoff run, they’ll have one of the best ground ball pitchers in baseball at their disposal.