FanPost

Red Sox should trade depth for greatness

You can build an excellent team with a bunch of above-average players and no elite, superstar-type of players. If all the players are above-average, it stands to reason that the team will be above-average too. It can be a cost-effective way to build a competitive team, even a championship team.
Right now the Red Sox roster is flush with above-average players (though not all have been playing above average this year). Their 40-man roster is full of them. They won't benefit from piling up more of them. They already will have issues this offseason if they re-sign close to half their potential 8 free agents, which might not leave them room to protect all of Matt Barnes, Travis Shaw, Blake Swihart, and Sean Coyle from this offseason's Rule 5 draft (Henry Owens and Deven Marrero, also not on the 40-man roster at present, will not be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for another year and so need no protection as yet). There is such a thing as a roster that is too deep, and the Red Sox are approaching that point.
The Red Sox would do well now to trade some of their excellent depth for greatness. You can build the deepest 40-man roster in baseball, but that doesn't make your starting 9 any better. You can only field 9 of those 40 players at any given time. To improve the actual on-field performance of a team of good players, you have to start replacing some good players with great ones.
The thing is, the traditional type of trade that a team in the position of seller does at this time of year is to trade short-term control of a proven veteran for long-term control of promising prospects. The problem with that is that it can mean even less room on your 40-man roster. Last weekend's trade of Jake Peavy is a perfect example of that, bringing in two AAA pitchers who each took a roster spot. Peavy's departure only opened one spot; fortunately, due to Ryan Lavarnway being on the 60-day disabled list, the Red Sox had an open spot for the time being in which to put the extra player. But now their 40-man is full. The possibility of making things even more overcrowded by more seller-type trades in the next few days makes me worry about whether they'll be able to keep all this good talent, or be forced to lose some of it in a Rule-5 draft.
What I'd like to see the Red Sox do over these next couple of days is to make some trades that are traditional for sellers, trading veterans for prospects, and also make some trades that are traditional for buyers, but targeting longer-term players of impact. For example, were the Red Sox to acquire Giancarlo Stanton, they'd get to keep him for at least the next two years. Be willing to give up multiple good players from your 40-man roster to get them.
Of course, keep the young guys who have the potential to become great in the near term. Bradley, Bogaerts, even Betts and Middlebrooks. Yes, Middlebrooks. We may still see greatness there.
Be willing to trade your above-average pieces now, even ones who won't become free agents at the end of this year. Nava would be such an example. Gomes, who will be a free agent at the end of this year, would bring a winning attitude and a good right-handed platoon split to any clubhouse.
The Red Sox are especially overflowing on the left side of the infield. Even if they trade free-agent-to-be Stephen Drew now, they'll still have Xander Bogaerts, Will Middlebrooks, Brock Holt, Garin Cecchini, and Deven Marrero all vying for time at those two positions, and Sean Coyle possibly also in that mix before long. They should be willing to trade the likes of Cecchini and Marrero, who project to be good but not great. These would be good-fitting peices for some other teams to build with. Coyle might be a good insurance policy should Middlebrooks falter again.
Trading Lester could bring a prospect windfall that they could turn around for an elite, longer-term talent. And they still might get Lester back over the offseason.
Trading Uehara could do the same, but I'd like to see them keep him, as it is so hard to find an elite closer nowadays. Plus, he brings a great attitude that teammates and fans alike love. The only concern is when will his performance begin to falter due to age-related decline?
The other free-agents-to-be are Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, David Ross, and possibly Craig Breslow, for whom the Red Sox may exercise a relatively cheap one-year option. Re-signing Miller and Badenhop would be good moves for the Red Sox; they've been consistently effective relievers, which can be hard to come by. Ross is worth keeping for one more year until Swihart is ready. He's popular with the other players, and helpful to the young catchers. His presence could also help lure Lester back for next year. Breslow was consistently good through most of last year, but that seems to be over now. They wouldn't make him a qualifying offer for next year, it's too much money, so they wouldn't get a draft pick by letting him walk. He'd be good to package into a trade.
Trading some veteran pitchers would open up spots to give some of their wealth of AAA pitching talent a chance to acclimate to the big leagues. It's time for that. It's also time to open up a spot in AAA for Henry Owens, the Red Sox' top overall prospect who is dominating AA batters this season.
Jonathan Herrera, Mike Carp, Felix Doubront, Dan Butler, Ryan Lavarnway, and Alex Hassan are all other possibilities to go. Though I'd like to see Alex Hassan stay, as he's a likeable local guy, he's also been on a tear offensively of late, and he may represent an opportunity for the Sox to "sell high".
Now it's time to see what they'll actually do. But I will be disappointed if we see more trades this week, but only netting a bunch of good young players and no great ones.