2013 Red Sox community projections: The surprising Shane Victorino

Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports

The Hawaiian flew again.

The 2013 Red Sox were a pleasant surprise for many fans in Boston, and perhaps no individual player better represented that surprise than Shane Victorino. Once infamously labeled the worst contract of the offseason (sorry, Keith), the $13 million outfielder proved his doubters wrong with a renaissance season in Boston. His offensive numbers were better than they had been in any year outside of his exceptional 2011, and when combined with stellar defense in Fenway's huge right field, it didn't take long for "Shanf," as he is affectionately known around these parts, to become a fan favorite.

This he did despite playing all season as banged up as can be. It was hardly a rare occurrence to see him chase down a difficult fly ball at full gallop before slowly limping back to his spot in right. And that's without mentioning all the times he took one for the team, as it were. He was even forced to abandon switch hitting due to injury--a change which saw him hit .300/.386/.510 against righties from the right side of the plate. Simply put, nothing was going to get in Victorino's way this year.

Unfortunately, we did not universally see this coming:

Name RBI HR AVG OBP SLG SB
Shane Victorino 61 15 0.294 0.351 0.451 21
Sguglie2 71 13 0.261 0.342 0.418 27
Dennet 79 16 0.260 0.322 0.44 25
Brogshan 66 13 0.270 0.335 0.418 28
ThinMan61 45 10 0.260 0.320 0.350 20
Theartolater 73 15 0.265 0.335 0.454 15
0bsessions 60 20 0.270 0.325 0.460 30
GerryT 50 15 0.280 0.340 0.440 35
JTrunfio 65 12 0.275 0.350 0.420 25
theartolater 75 15 0.265 0.335 0.454 15
Josh Amaral 61 16 0.268 0.340 0.410 24
BackBay 61 12 0.273 0.344 0.338 33
Nater1177 68 13 0.266 0.337 0.429 27
Manny 70 13 0.260 0.310 0.400 20
louandjan 67 14 0.278 0.320 0.462 28
Javierarbona 72 16 0.282 0.357 0.445 25
DuvalSox 59 11 0.275 0.332 0.412 35
BigNachos 66 12 0.273 0.338 0.408 26
cds7c 47 7 0.277 0.327 0.387 17
Bwatts10 68 15 0.283 0.340 0.450 33
brendan.mccormick.4 82 9 0.277 0.376 0.486 23
Hemmien 57 9 0.272 0.319 0.389 32
Rick Bentsen 81 22 0.297 0.323 0.485 40
jonrmcleod 68 17 0.271 0.341 0.444 28
MaineSox 65 18 0.275 0.335 0.410 30
dsharp 67 19 0.272 0.333 0.467 22
HeyYoCraig 60 13 0.268 0.339 0.422 36
soxfanabroad 65 13 0.278 0.341 0.409 26
Sologub 58 16 0.268 0.319 0.400 22
Bosoxfanda 63 14 0.274 0.338 0.402 27
chief 46 14 0.239 0.288 0.307 18
Dale Sams 59 16 0.281 0.335 0.420 24
soxdude7 66 11 0.270 0.329 0.430 34
redsox15 67 14 0.267 0.349 0.449 31
fizrat 59 13 0.281 0.342 0.420 32
jcr0722 57 12 0.272 0.340 0.410 20
jraaicizcool 65 14 0.289 0.338 0.433 38
seehard 73 12 0.278 0.311 0.390 29
titio1300 60 14 0.283 0.342 0.445 33
fishindude88 54 14 0.270 0.349 0.415 31
stickslinger 65 13 0.275 0.340 0.430 25
B_Edelman 66 19 0.269 0.331 0.412 31
nomarA 55 13 0.278 0.343 0.445 26
Alfredo 68 13 0.276 0.345 0.443 29
Goosepecker Ridge 64 14 0.271 0.343 0.429 31
negaduck 67 14 0.259 0.331 0.441 26
Kimmel09 68 9 0.264 0.343 0.401 41
totheights 79 17 0.281 0.410 0.401 32
DRoot 68 13 0.279 0.346 0.431 29
Rogue Nine 66 15 0.281 0.347 0.511 28
dibs 80 18 0.280 0.340 0.480 15
Debageldond 65 11 0.275 0.341 0.421 23
ellkana 67 17 0.283 0.352 0.477 32
flyin 53 14 0.271 0.342 0.412 16
diggity823 61 16 0.277 0.339 0.465 37
colco 57 12 0.261 0.323 0.410 32
ales.horvatek 56 13 0.287 0.337 0.417 23
PriceJD 67 10 0.271 0.332 0.409 22
RSNexile 60 10 0.265 0.330 0.420 23
65 6 0.260 0.301 12
slamU130 62 10 0.278 0.345 0.378 32
Bloggy 70 13 0.265 0.330 0.491 20
navarra 63 18 0.278 0.333 0.431 33
49 11 0.272 0.349 0.479 22
justin_bobo 74 12 0.272 0.344 0.415 29
FrenchSox 61 10 0.261 0.324 0.387 38
NickNack 64 14 0.288 0.345 0.455 33
Buccaz 51 8 0.255 0.330 0.418 28

First, I've got a little bit of explaining to do. You'll notice the lack of plate appearances. That's the result of a snafu with the form that also ate a few early entries without usernames. That's also why you might see some people (such as theartolater) with multiple submissions. So no tarring and feathering for cheating needed. Unless you really want to.

Now, we've certainly got quite a few good guesses on the board, but it's mostly thanks to everyone coming right in around 15 on homers. In the "one perfect, one near miss" category we have the aforementioned Theartolater, Bwatts10, Josh Amaral, Rogue Nine, and diggity823. Then there's redsox15 with the three near misses.

Sorry, folks with the exact numbers, but I'm gonna have to go with redsox15 here. The real summary of these responses is that we undersold Victorino. Sure, our RBI totals trended higher, as did our stolen base figures, but the average guess on the two most important numbers up there in OBP and SLG came in around 15 and 25 points low respectively, which makes coming within two points on those figures more impressive to me. Doesn't hurt being just one off of the homer total, either.

So congratulations, redsox15. As your prize, here's the spite of the five people you were chosen over!

Read more Red Sox:

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