2013 Community Projections: A fitting farewell from Jacoby Ellsbury

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Jacoby Ellsbury had a big year, just not in the way some of us expected.

Jacoby Ellsbury is a Red Sox no more, but he left on a pretty great note. One of the biggest contributors to Boston's turnaround 2013 season, Ellsbury ended his Red Sox career the same way he started it: by winning the World Series.

It's impossible to complain about Ellsbury's season. Coming in at 5.8 WAR--by the valuations of both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference--the speedy centerfielder was one of the American League's most valuable position players. That being said, a quick look back at our projections shows it was possible to dream bigger.

Username PA RBI HR BA OBP SLG SB
Jacoby Ellsbury 636 53 9 .298 .355 .426 52
charleyk 703 92 21 .309 .351 .503 46
Thinman61 645 60 16 .280 .350 .440 40
cds7c 607 87 17 .297 .357 .497 47
BobZupcic 640 64 14 .290 .342 .425 32
0bsessions 705 75 20 .295 .343 .480 35
bdc55 520 62 16 .284 .332 .465 19
dennet 687 72 13 .288 .330 .420 36
brogshan 674 64 16 .290 .342 .436 33
sox 475 95 25 .295 .345 .435 25
Alfredo 670 88 27 .308 .364 .515 44
Bdlny 78 19 .297 .389 .504 28
theartolater 680 85 21 .325 .385 .465 67
chazcoe21 589 79 19 .311 .421 .569 49
navarra 620 78 16 .288 .356 .477 32
jviveney 600 80 15 .300 .350 .430 30
RedSox01 705 78 26 .289 .368 .469 41
leftcoastsoxfan 680 82 19 .288 .355 .444 40
HeyYoCraig 651 83 21 .300 .350 .449 44
Colco 625 56 11 .292 .342 .430 43
soxfanabroad 611 73 17 .288 .336 .442 32
soxdude7 488 53 10 .282 .346 .426 33
dsharp 588 76 21 .291 .343 .488 39
slamU130 622 93 22 .312 .370 .440 41
650 77 14 .295 .355 .425 34
111soxfan111 625 67 16 .290 .345 .450 35
RP 500 74 22 .291 .365 .520 30
chef 500 82 24 .307 .400 .467 45
DuvalSox 700 85 26 .295 .348 .473 42
jraaicizcool@gmail.com 565 78 18 .301 .354 .462 37
justin_bobo 590 79 17 .314 .359 .435 29
MaineSox 675 85 18 .300 .355 .435 45
n0va 620 67 17 .281 .337 .457 34
Rick Bentsen 615 92 25 .310 .395 .518 52
mr.crabs 600 95 27 .295 .345 .490 29
sguglie2 641 81 28 .305 .365 .470 38
ppppp 630 98 24 .297 .365 .493 45
bilmster 665 74 14 .303 .362 .455 43
outofleftfield 734 59 17 .280 .364 .460 60
pcmcewen 650 75 22 .310 .395 .450 38
GoosepeckerRidge 655 89 23 .291 .352 .488 41
titio1300 450 80 13 .309 .354 .490 59
speeddemonnd 635 82 18 .292 .337 .438 41
Smlec 600 85 25 .290 .340 60
dibs 501 68 16 .289 .350 .480 32
Turd11 80 22 .297 .436 .435 24
kimmel09 578 87 14 .301 .351 .415 28
Luke Oliphant 117 32 .322 .397 .673 41
kimmel09 578 87 14 .301 .351 .415 28
Pete D 400 60 15 .280 .315 .650 30
tricher00 587 83 24 .313 .359 .526 38
gabecubano14 550 80 15 .300 .350 .450 25
fizrat 630 80 16 .290 .350 .440 52
95 24 .318 28
dsfdvc 580 75 15 .305 .340 .405 35
RSNexile 640 60 12 .290 .350 .440 35
500 90 12 .300 .380 .450 45
Sologub 440 50 12 .295 .350 .425 28
tanookiscutaro 510 76 14 .305 .402 .481 40
B_Edelman 400 40 12 .283 .350 .413 20
Debageldond 675 61 18 .287 .351 .447 37
Droot 706 79 17 .307 .359 .470 48
logan 80 20 .300 .450 .500 32
Buccaz 440 55 11 .278 .340 .410 23
Bosox1984 510 65 13 .281 25
sofutomygaha 600 75 17 .280 .330 .470 31

Particularly when it comes to RBI and power, we missed big time. There was still some hope that Ellsbury would show up in all his 2011 glory, leading to an average guess of 18 homers and a .466 slugging percentage. Perhaps as a result of that, our RBI guesses came in, on average, at 77.

I expect some of that had to do with hope. After 2012, even knowing the Red Sox were, as a whole, in a much better place, we still needed to believe that 2013 was really in play for Boston. Obviously, that ended up being the case even without a monster year from Ellsbury, but at the time the return of his MVP-like form was an easier path to see.

For all that, though, in the land of batting average and OBP things went quite a bit better. So much better that the average guesses were .297 (off by one point!) and .359 (off by four). In that, at least, the group had Ellsbury pegged.

Our winner for the day has to be Soxdude7 with his two exact hits and one near-miss, but close behind him are Jviveney and Sologub, who came close on all three parts of the triple slash--frankly a better indication of in-season production than the other figures.

Congratulations, Soxdude7. For your prize: I will not poke fun at your username.

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