2013 Red Sox community projections: Just a bit low on John Lackey

Gail Oskin

We were just a bit low on our projections for John Lackey. And yes, I mean that as a Major League reference.

Believe it or not, we weren't very close when it came to John Lackey.

Name IP Wins WHIP ERA BB/9 K/9
John Lackey 189.0 10 1.16 3.52 1.90 7.65
cds7c 207.1 14 1.43 3.77 2.70 7.00
mose 177.0 14 1.25 3.88 2.60 6.90
chazcoe21 181.2 16 1.51 3.89 5.00 7.60
arthuston 150.0 9 8.00 4.60 2.50 5.50
random walk123 205.0 13 1.32 4.15 2.90 7.00
Thinman61 160.0 12 1.40 4.27 3.90 5.20
JJ 140.0 8 1.36 4.27 4.00 6.00
sguglie2 170.0 12 1.45 4.20 2.80 6.80
Sean O 84.0 4 1.95 5.76 2.80 5.20
tanookiscutaro 171.0 12 1.43 4.48 3.10 6.40
mcd 150.0 9 1.37 4.40 3.00 7.00
MaineSox 200.0 13 1.35 4.00 3.50 8.00
joeha 158.0 9 1.39 4.35 3.70 7.50
dsharp 183.0 12 1.33 4.11 2.60 7.30
0bsessions 225.0 21 1.18 2.89 2.65 8.70
TheLoneDavid 180.0 12 1.36 4.20 3.00 6.10
darrenmb41 197.2 13 1.22 4.20 4.00 6.80
111SoxFan111 175.0 12 1.30 4.25 3.40 7.00
Sologub 179.0 7 1.39 4.43 3.30 6.70
DC Sox Fanatic 175.0 13 1.34 4.44 2.90 4.90
soxfanabroad 197.2 12 1.48 4.34 3.68 6.71
GoosepeckerRidge 172.0 14 1.31 4.21 2.98 7.10
Bilmster 144.0 7 1.44 4.22 2.80 5.80
soxdude7 188.0 14 1.31 3.73 3.35 6.94
speeddemonnd 171.0 13 1.35 3.87 2.70 6.60
kens0427 189.0 15 4.00 4.00 5.00
FrenchSox 214.0 12 1.29 4.24 2.60 6.80
whereArtthou 175.0 11 1.30 4.29 2.50 6.80
pichris 166.2 6 1.66 6.66 3.66 6.66
navarra 178.0 10 1.35 4.66 3.80 6.50
fredw 210.0 12 1.41 4.04 3.40 6.50
vtbasser 220.0 17 1.11 3.59 1.00 8.00
fizrat 169.0 10 1.45 4.78 3.00 7.10
Spareman7 187.0 15 3.45 4.00 6.00
louandjan 189.0 12 112.00 4.02 4.00 4.00
HeyYoCraig 170.0 13 1.39 4.45 2.80 2.20
theartolater 90.1 5 1.20 6.54 4.70 3.70
Buccaz 173.0 13 1.36 1.40 2.95 6.63
pudintater 196.0 13 1.24 3.87 3.40 7.60
Debageldond 182.1 13 1.42 4.71 2.60 6.10
Averages 176.52 11.76 4.37 4.22 3.17 6.44

Now, I can't imagine why Red Sox fans might not have fully trusted John Lackey to perform this season. It's a complete and total mystery so long as you've been thorough in repressing your memories of the previous few years. But the expectations were not high. Certainly not anywhere near what Lackey actually did.

The crazy thing is that, even if Lackey hadn't been [omitted] in those dark years that we've all agreed didn't actually occur, we probably still would have aimed a little low. Lackey has had better years in terms of results--particularly in terms of wins since the Red Sox offense did their best job to remind us why that stat doesn't really speak to pitcher quality. But in terms of peripherals? This might have just been John Lackey at his best. At age 34. Who could have imagined?

Whether age 35 will bring more of the same remains to be seen. We can certainly hope he'll at least come close, particularly considering that we've got a nearly free year in store for 2015. But given how unlikely it seemed that the Red Sox would ever get anything out of Lackey, a big year in a championship season, complete with a signature performance in the postseason, seems like a pretty good deal to me.

We all lost in projections and won in reality, but I've gotta give this one to 0bsessions and VTBasser. Who cares if they came close on anything or hit exactly? They were the ones who really pegged Lackey for a big year, even if 0bsessions may have appended his BB/9 prediction with "I don't give a"--ahem.

You get the picture.

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