Red Sox - Mariners WPA chart is ridiculous

Jim Rogash

Win probability tells you the chances of something happening, and Boston held on to what little chance they had left.

The Red Sox had less than a one percent chance of winning entering the bottom of the ninth inning of Thursday night's contest against the Mariners. This is precisely why probabilities and guarantees are completely different things, by the way.

That's not to say probabilities are a bad thing -- they're just meant to reflect the chance of something, and 99 out of 100 times, no one is coming back down from 7-2 with half-an-inning to go. That fact is what made Thursday night so special to watch, because the next time it happens, it probably results in a loss for Boston. Maybe. Let's not count this group out of anything at this point.

For that 100th, time, though, sometimes a team calls the wrong reliever from the bullpen, and at the exact wrong time in the lineup. And then you get this happening, with a side of that, some more this, and all of a sudden, you've put six runs on the board and won.


Source: FanGraphs

That chart is interactive, so feel free to relive Thursday's moments one play at a time via scrolling.

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