Red Sox' Playoff Odds From Baseball Prospectus

Jonny Gomes, celebrating the A's playoff berth in 2012 - Ezra Shaw

How do the Red Sox stack up against the AL East competition in PECOTA's eyes?

PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' projection system, doesn't just look at players. It also forecasts at the team level. Because of this, we can get playoff odds based on how good (or bad) PECOTA expects every player and team to be, despite the fact that not a single game has even been played in spring training yet. As Colin Wyers explains:

These odds are based on preliminary depth charts, with teams still having many roster moves to make before the season starts. Thus, they aren't etched in stone, they're etched in sand. And these are PECOTA's estimates of what would happen if the season were played thousands of times. PECOTA is not infallible, and the season is played but once. It is a prediction, not destiny.

It's all probabilities, essentially, hence the title "playoff odds." Things are a bit different this year, as Wyers has worked with PECOTA to make it include the probability of winning the one-game playoff between the two wild cards in each league. Granted, that's just kind of unnecessary extra icing on top of an already decorated and delicious cake, but it's still fun to argue over if you drink at the nerdiest bar in America.

You don't need a Baseball Prospectus subscription in order to see the playoff odds, hence my not feeling too bad about doing this:

Rnk Team
Win

Loss

Expected
Win Pct

Sim
Win

Sim
Loss

Div
Pct

WC
Pct
Sorted Descending
Playoff
Pct

Playoff
Pct (Adj)

WS Win
Pct

1 Day
Delta

7 Day
Delta
1
New York
Yankees
0 0 .544 88.1 73.9 47.0% 22.9% 69.9% 59.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0%
2
Tampa Bay
Rays
0 0 .520 84.2 77.8 20.6% 23.6% 44.2% 32.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0%
3
Boston
Red Sox
0 0 .516 83.6 78.4 17.3% 22.0% 39.4% 28.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0%
4
Toronto
Blue Jays
0 0 .511 82.7 79.3 13.6% 19.7% 33.3% 23.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0%
5
Baltimore
Orioles
0 0 .461 74.8 87.2 1.5% 3.3% 4.8% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

The current playoff odds, based on preliminary depth charts -- i.e. the ones that say Felix Doubront stinks and Jonny Gomes is playing constantly -- give the Red Sox a nearly 40 percent chance of postseason baseball. Their best chance seems to be through one of the two wild cards, as the Yankees have the fourth-highest playoff odds among all 30 clubs.

These will update throughout the year, even before the season starts as the depth charts start to inch towards their eventual Opening Day iteration. This isn't a bad start, though, with the Sox on par with the rest of the expected AL East competition, and even ahead of the off-season's winner in Toronto.

Latest News

In This Article

Teams
Players
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Over the Monster

You must be a member of Over the Monster to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Over the Monster. You should read them.

Join Over the Monster

You must be a member of Over the Monster to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Over the Monster. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker