FanPost

The Mike Carp Question




I'm not sure if I'm looking for someone to talk me down off of the Mike Carp ledge, or for someone to push me over it, but every time I consider what we should do with Carp I end up thinking we should give him the starting 1B job next year. Steamer's projection for him is uninspiring, but it also projects a .313 BABIP (.333 career BABIP, and .335 career xBABIP); given his career xBABIP, and assuming all of the additional hits are singles, his adjusted projection would be .279/.348/.466 (they also project him to have the second worst walk rate of his career - if he reproduces his walk rate from this year his OBP goes up to .353). Carp also has a reverse platoon split for his career (122 wRC+ vs lefties, and 116 wRC+ vs righties), and while I'm not ready to say that he has an actual ability that makes him hit same handed pitchers better than opposite handed ones, I think it would be fairly safe to say that he should have a very limited platoon split at worst.

I kind of think the way the Sox have treated him, and the 1B situation in general, gives some credence to the idea that it could happen too. First they claimed him (after the Twins and Astros both passed over him when they could have used a player like him, so they apparently didn't even feel like he was worth a waiver claim) and traded (nothing) for him, then they kept him over seemingly better options after he had a terrible spring training, and now they apparently lack interest in Napoli (or any other 1B option) and have stated an insistence on keeping Carp on the team. All of this makes me think they may have seen something specific in Carp that they liked and/or something they thought they could fix and now believe they have. Their actions wouldn't make any sense if there wasn't something they saw in Carp that they really liked, especially given his defensive limitations.

Am I crazy for potentially wanting them to go into 2014 with him as the starting 1B? Is that something you could see actually happening? Am I looking at this the completely wrong way? Help me out here guys, do I step down off the ledge, or jump off?

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