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2013 Draft Order Tracker for Red Sox fans - FINALIZED

With five games left to go in the 2012 season, the worst teams in the majors are jockeying for draft position in 2013. The Red Sox right now could end up picking anywhere between fourth and thirteenth (except for ninth, which spot will be assigned to the Pirates for failing to sign this year's first-round pick).

As the top ten picks are protected, it is most important that the Red Sox don't fall behind the Mariners or Mets (currently tied for eleventh). Then the Red Sox would be free to sign a free agent requiring draft compensation without sacrificing their first-round pick and the signing pool money attached to it. Two more losses on the part of the Red Sox would clinch a protected pick. Also one loss by the Red Sox combined with one win each by the Mariners and Mets would achieve the same goal. [UPDATE: With their second loss Sunday afternoon, the Red Sox have clinched a protected pick.] (Ties in draft order are broken by the previous year's record; the Red Sox lose any possible tie at this point.)

2013 Draft Order with five games left - SEE UPDATE BELOW

  1. Astros, 51 wins, CLINCHED
  2. Cubs, 59 wins (2011: 71 wins)
  3. Rockies, 62 wins (2011: 73 wins)
  4. Twins, 66 wins (2011: 63 wins)
  5. Indians, 66 wins (2011: 80 wins)
  6. Marlins, 67 wins (2011: 72 wins)
  7. Blue Jays, 69 wins (2011: 81 wins)
  8. Red Sox, 69 wins (2011: 90 wins)
  9. Pirates (for failing to sign Mark Appel)
  10. Royals, 70 wins (2011: 71 wins)
  11. Mariners, 73 wins (2011: 67 wins)
  12. Mets, 73 wins (2011: 77 wins)
  13. Padres, 74 wins (2011: 71 wins)


Besides acquiring a protected pick, it is also in the Red Sox' interest to get as high a position as possible. Not only does it increase the amount of players they can choose from in every round of the draft, but it can also mean a significant bump in the pool of money they will be able to spend from. For reference, see the difference it made in the first round this past summer:

2012 Draft first-round slot allowance

  1. $7,200,000
  2. $6,200,000
  3. $5,200,000
  4. $4,200,000
  5. $3,500,000
  6. $3,250,000
  7. $3,000,000
  8. $2,900,000
  9. $2,800,000
  10. $2,700,000
  11. $2,625,000
  12. $2,550,000
  13. $2,475,000

Source: Baseball America

The best way to increase your spending pool is to gather compensation picks, but with no top free agents departing the team, that isn't an option for the Red Sox this year. The best they can hope to do is to jockey for a higher draft position.

I'll keep this post updated as the final days of the 2012 regular season play themselves out.

*

FINAL UPDATE with draft order decided for all eliminated teams

  1. Astros, 55 wins
  2. Cubs, 61 wins
  3. Rockies, 63 wins
  4. Twins, 66 wins
  5. Indians, 68 wins
  6. Marlins, 69 wins (2011: 72 wins)
    -
  7. Red Sox, 69 wins (2011: 90 wins)
    -
  8. Royals, 72 wins
  9. Pirates (for failing to sign Mark Appel)
  10. Blue Jays, 73 wins
  11. Mets, 74 wins
  12. Mariners, 75 wins
  13. Padres, 76 wins
  14. Pirates, 79 wins
  15. Diamondbacks, 81 wins (2011: 94 wins)
  16. Phillies, 81 wins (2011: 102 wins)
  17. Brewers, 83 wins
  18. White Sox, 85 wins
  19. Dodgers, 86 wins
  20. Angels, 89 wins
  21. Rays, 90 wins

    Saturday only the Blue Jays, Royals, and Padres won from the original group. The Padres have earned their way off the list, while the Blue Jays were kind enough not only to beat the Yankess, but also to let the Red Sox trade up a spot.

    Sunday the Red Sox with a loss clinched a protected pick, scratching the Mariners and Mets off the list. The range of possible Red Sox picks is now narrowed down to #5-10, but not #9. Elsewhere, the Indians were knocked down a spot with a victory, and the Astros won a completely inconsequential game. The Cubs postponed clinching the #2 pick by beating the Diamondbacks.

    Monday, wins by the Blue Jays and Marlins have shaken things up a little bit. Toronto switches from #8 to #10 with the Royals. The Marlins dropped one spot and present the only opportunity for the Red Sox to advance from where they are. That only happens, though, if the Marlins sweep the Mets and the Red Sox get swept by the Yankees. It is most likely that the Red Sox are fixed at #7. The Cubs lost to the Astros and thereby clinched the #2 pick. Colorado won, but the Cubs loss already fixes them at #3.

    After Tuesday, few questions remain. The Red Sox have the seventh spot clinched and could have the sixth spot with a loss and a Marlins win. The only other spot #5-21 that is newly clinched is the Pirates at #14, but everything is clear enough just to list all the teams eliminated from the playoffs.

    Wednesday, the last of days. With a Marlins loss the Red Sox are now locked in at seventh in the drafting order. Conversely, with a Mets win the Blue Jays clinch a protected pick, not that their normal behavior in free agency suggests they will do anything with it (the protection, that is). When the Royals, Padres, and Brewers were still playing the late games, their spots meanwhile had already been fixed. The final deciding game for the bottom twenty teams saw the Diamondbacks losing, assuring that they will pick ahead of the Phillies.

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