FanPost

How Much of Baseball is really luck?

The Red Sox bad season in 2012 got me wondering: what if the Red Sox were a true talent 100 win team, and the 90 wins was just bad luck. Well I did a quick google search and I found this great post on the book blog. In one of the comments, David Pinto linked to his simulator. I did a quick simulation. 30 teams, 6 games against each team. The Results were shocking. The best team had a difference of .075 points of winning% between true talent and actual winning%. This is 12 games on a 162 game scale. The worst team had an .052 point difference or 8 games on a 162 game scale. In his book blog post, Tango says that winning percentage is 60% talent and 40% luck. I think this just shows us that anything can happen this season.

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