On Optimism and Pessimism
by Matthew Kory on Feb 8, 2012 9:00 AM EST
in Analysis
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PrintHaving optimism for my team, believing they are the best or can compete with the best, is one of the greatest feelings I've had being a sports fan. The reverse is almost true too, as the only thing worse than being pessimistic about my team's chances is crushing defeat.
The last calendar year is a prime example. This time last season, the Red Sox had just signed Carl Crawford and traded for Adrian Gonzalez. This, by the way, wasn't the Carl Crawford we all suffered through last year. This was ALL STAR Carl Crawford of the great defense, great base-running, and good hitting who was leaving a division rival to join the Red Sox. Right. That guy. They'd also acquired one of the better hitting first baseman in baseball in Gonzalez to man the cold corner (it'll catch on) and provide the middle of the order power the Red Sox had been missing since Manny Ramirez bolted town for the cold clean air of Los Angeles.
Both deals added superstars in their prime without subtracting anything from the major league roster. The projections were, to say the least, favorable. The Sox were picked to win the East, the American League, the World Series, the Super Bowl, the NASCAR championships (I believe they're sponsored by some penis drug but not sure which one), and the American Fly Fisherman's Triathlonic Goat Herding, Crocheting, and Snorkeling Championships.
Then bad start three good months September done.
We all went into this off season like this. (If you could see me, you'd see I'm frowning.) The departure of face-of-the-front office Theo Epstein to the Chicago Cubs (presumably in search of better losing) combined with the unceremonious exit of long time manager Terry Francona added to our collective upset. Every fan, every voice in the media, everyone seemed to suggest the worst.
'Look, everyone! The Red Sox are imploding again! it's like 2004 and 2007 never happened. This is the same old franchise that always screws everything up. The owners are incompetent, the front office is a bunch of puppets, and the players don't care! They're probably going to trade Ted Williams retro-actively and fire all their African American employees. It's back to Red Sox hell for us all!'
Of course, none of that is true. '04 and '07 did happen. The people who own and run the franchise aren't virulent racists, and the people who play for it all have their heads attached to their bodies. I mention all this because there has been what might be termed a fair amount of pessimism concerning the 2012 Boston Red Sox and when I say 'fair' I mean 'healthy', and when I say 'healthy' I mean 'excessively large'.
It's understandable to be pessimistic considering how the team looked when last they took the field, but that overlooks the fact that the Red Sox spent the vast majority of last season playing like one of the best teams of the last two decades. Yes, they book-ended the season by playing like the Washington Generals, and that, like a 2am fried chicken run to a truck stop, is the taste that many of us can't get out of our mouths. But if you can remove the lingering anger, upset, and disappointment from the way last season ended, you can see pretty clearly that the 2012 Red Sox are loaded with the most important of assets: promise. It's that promise that, along with a love for the game, keeps us coming back year after year.
Yes, the rotation is 2/5ths short of a full set, but the first three guys are pretty damn good. What's more, the season isn't over yet so there is still time to improve. Yes, Carl Crawford was one-legged-Juan-Pierre awful last year, but his track record of seven good years in the major leagues suggests he's better than that*. Yes, the '11 team suffered tons of injuries, but the good news is three-fold: 1) some of those players whose 2011 performance held the team back won't be on the roster this year, 2) players have had time to heal and long-term prognoses are good, and 3) suffering the injuries the Red Sox did last season is unusual, a word which by it's very meaning suggests the Sox chances are good of avoiding something like 2011 on the injury front again.
It's time to wrap this sunshine sandwich up in a big bow with one of those colorful toothpicks sticking out of the top. Being optimistic about your team is good. Being hopeful is good. That's what Spring Training is about, sun, baseball, and hope. And probably not in that order either. And what is the alternative? To tear down the team you love? Who wants, I mean really wants, to think their team is bad? And what's the point anyway? The team either is bad or it isn't, regardless of what you see in it. Sure, the desire to be able to say "I told you so" is a strong one that I'm not immune to, but when it comes down to things, being there with your team is the thing that we all hold onto in the end. We remember those times we believed and were rewarded most of all because those are the ones that brought us the greatest joy.
Don't believe me? I'll prove it in four numbers:
2004.
Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers in ten days.
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And bubblegum smiles!!
Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that’s wonderful is what I feel when we’re together,
Brighter than a lucky penny,
When you’re near the rain cloud disappears, dear,
And I feel so fine just to know that you are mine.
My life is sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
That’s how this refrain goes, so come on, join in everybody!
Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that’s wonderful is sure to come your way
When you’re in love to stay.
Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that’s wonderful is what I feel when we’re together,
Brighter than a lucky penny,
When you’re near the rain cloud disappears, dear,
And I feel so fine just to know that you are mine.
My life is sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
That’s how this refrain goes, so come on, join in everybody!
Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that’s wonderful is sure to come your way
‘Cause you’re in love, you’re in love,
And love is here to stay!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
There's a difference between wanting your team to be bad
and looking at your team’s abysmal roster construction and knowing that it would take an extraordinary amount of luck to win 90 games.
Try to keep your personal feelings out of your articles, you’re a journalist.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
blogger is not the same thing as journalist
there’s no reason why he can’t put his personal feelings in articles, certainly everyone here does it, and there’s nothing wrong with it.
by wolf9309 on Feb 8, 2012 9:42 AM EST up reply actions 4 recs
I agree with this comment.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
In fact, it is to be encouraged.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
It took a whole lot of absolute awful to only win 90 games last year
I’d love to hear you explain how you think 90 wins is out of the question this year. And try to keep your personal feelings out of it.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 9:47 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
yeah, for how bad our rotation looks,
I’m not sure it’s any worse than the one we fielded last year. It’s just this year, we know it’s going to probably be bad going into the year instead of thinking it might be great.
Our offense is still one of the top offenses, if not the top.
Our bullpen is very good. Probably not as good in the closer position, but between Melancon and a full year of Morales as well as the other guys, probably is much deeper than last year.
If we could just get that rotation going…
No 4th or fifth starter, downgrade at shortstop, Carl Crawford, Youk guaranteed to get hurt
that was easy.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
whereas most of last year
there was no 4th or 5th starter, and the 3rd starter was the worst starter in the majors. I’m not convinced that Aviles is necessarily a downgrade from Scutaro- I think Scutaro is better when he’s in games, but last year, he missed 49 games (nearly 1/3 of the season), and is a year older this year.
I don’t see how Crawford is guaranteed to get hurt. I think Youk probably is at some point.
I don't think he means Carl Crawford is going to get hurt.
He’s just saying: Carl Crawford.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Aviles isn't Scutaro's replacement though
he’ll spend much of the year at third base while Youk tries to come back from another injury.
I also forgot regression from Ellsbury, likely regression from Pedroia, Beckett and Adrian.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 8, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Regressions:
Ellsbury: probable
Pedroia: unlikely
Beckett: very possible
Adrian: quite the opposite, expect even more.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I'm not entirely sure
I know his shoulder was probably hurting him, but 9 win seasons are hard to replicate. I’m sure he’ll be good, but that’s a lot to ask.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 8, 2012 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
It is a lot to ask
but if his shoulder has healed more completely providing more power, and with a swing that’s tailor-made for Fenway, it is certainly not difficult to imagine.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Youk has missed about 30-40 games a year over the last few
That’s significant and not to be ignored, but let’s not act like it’s the whole season, either.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
It's not out of the realm of possibilty that that would increase, though
given he’s aged another year. It could be argued, even, that it’s likely.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Agreed
It’s definitely significant, as I said.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 12:51 PM EST up reply actions
I guess my point is
that you can’t discount that it could be the whole season. I mean, at a much higher likelihood than, say, a Dustin Pedroia.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I wonder at his foot though
I’m not concerned he’s going to miss significant time, but he’s no longer a cyborg.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 8, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
you mean you're worried because they took the screw out?
IIRC, running hurt him last year because of the screw. I don’t think it has magical hitting powers.
I'm not worried
but he does have a hole in his foot.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
Youk’s injuries have been wierd one off injuries. A thumb injury that no other athlete has ever had, a sports hernia, and a hip injury that he probably could have played through if not for the hernia. Of those only the hip is likely to reoccur and if so he could probably play through it. I’m not worried about his playing time at all.
by ThoughtsAndSox on Feb 9, 2012 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
well they're one off injuries
but even he has admitted they’re a result of his playing style. The way he plays with the body type he has means he’s probably going to keep getting those freak injuries.
But no regression in the other direction, huh?
Just negative regression? So, no chance of Buchholz being worth more, of anyone in the lineup doing better at all, of any of the starters brought in getting back to career norms? Just regression that hurts?
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Buchholz will probably be an adequate third starter
but no, I expect negligible regression from Crawford.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 8, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
For us to compete with the Yankees and Rays
An unbelievable number of things have to go right.
Beckett and Buchholz need to give us 180 IP of good pitching.
The Great Bard Caper needs to succeed
SS and RF need to be adequate
Ellsbury, Pedroia, Gonzo and Ortiz can’t largely regress
And that’s just to for 95 wins, the bare minimum that will get us the playoffs.
Everything Must Go.
Not only is Fizrat right about how eminently believable that scenario is
but 90-95 wins is enough for the playoffs. Even in the AL East.
Minimum number of wins to make the playoffs in the AL East the last few years:
91
90
88
90
89
Not only did we get unlucky to lose 90, but we got farther unlucky for the minimum to make the playoffs to be 91 that year.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 8, 2012 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
I think that number goes up this year
IF they don’t implement the second wild card this year. There are now two powers in the West, and Cleveland is making an effort in the Central. I no longer think it’s assumed that the wildcard will be from the East anymore.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
I love how we are apparently unfortunate every year
2010 we had one-in-a-million injuries. 2011 we had a one-in-a-million collapse. Why isn’t it ever “we’re not good enough?”
You either succeed, or you fail. Lately, we fail.
Everything Must Go.
Of course you could also make the argument
that by failing in 2010 and 2011 it does not mean we are “destined” to fail in 2012.
I would agree with that completely
However, I genuinely believe that you make your own luck. And a team requiring production from aging players with little pitching depth will not turn out well.
Everything Must Go.
Oh yes
Assuming every single thing that could go wrong with the roster will go wrong is certainly a healthier and more realistic approach. No one has ever bounced back from a poor season, ever, and there’s absolutely no chance one — never mind two! — of the more than a half-dozen arms vying for two rotation spots will put it together. You’ve convinced me, that’s for sure.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
If I really assumed everything that could go wrong with this team would
I’d say we’d be lucky to win 80 games, not 90.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 8, 2012 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
Assuming every single thing that could go wrong with the roster will go wrong is certainly a healthier and more realistic approach.
I might have bought your meaning in 2009. But after two straight years of worst case scenarios, is it crazy to assume that what can go wrong will with the Red Sox? I don’t think it is anymore. Maybe it is a systematic problem and not bad luck.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
sample size of "2" == systematic problem?
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Can you rule it out?
I mean, after two worst case scenarios in a row, can you rule out that maybe it isn’t things that are being done to you, but maybe it’s something you are doing? Maybe it was the medical staff, maybe we don’t do enough character evaluation. Maybe those actually were the problems, we just don’t want to face them because in rainbowville it’s easier to just say the world conspired against us and we had all the bad luck we’ll ever have but it’ll never happen again, sunny skies ahead!
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
Maybe maybe maybe maybe
Come on – you are a) asking me to prove a negative (“Can you rule it out?”) and b) tossing a bunch of "maybe"s at me.
Maybe the sky will fall. Maybe John Henry will by us all drinks at every home game. Maybe this. Maybe that.
That’s not an argument. That’s willfully being obstinate and provocative.
The current Red Sox administration has played more than just the last two seasons. They weren’t ‘swept by injuries’ ever single year. In fact in most years, they did just fine. I hear they made the playoffs once or twice.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Nothing is certain.
All we have are maybes, unless you KNOW why the team failed these last two years. Care to offer up that explanation without maybes?
Two straight years of worst case scenarios, I’m not ruling anything out anymore.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
Well, if we live by fear because "Nothing is certain."
then we might as well stay inside, lock our doors, work from home and order food.
Be sure to test for poison or spoilage.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
well it's not like Rogue is saying that the Sox shouldn't play baseball because they could fail
he’s just saying why he isn’t confident in the team doing well
Somewhat.
But he’s also latching on to two data points that scream ‘anomalous’ and insisting on an explanation that will protect himself from uncertainty.
If we could find such an explanation, that would be great. But most of the time, such anomalies are just that.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Bard is a question mark
And he will probably only pitch 120-150 innings, but he isn’t nothing. I’d take Bard over Miller, Weiland, or Lackey any day. Also, out of Padilla, Cook, and Silva— one of them may have a career reviving experience. You never know, but we definitely have more than nothing at the last two rotation spots. I’d like them to sign Oswalt too, but that’s not gonna happen.
Check out my blog at http://conor-soxrox.blogspot.com
Actually, it took a whole lot of absolute awful
at the tail end of 3 months of near-unbeatableness. So, if you don’t think we can achieve that level of unbeatableness prior to the awful, regardless of the level of awful, then it is very conceivable that this team doesn’t win 90 games.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
The team was near unbeatable because of the lineup
And the lineup is still there. And chances are good, given last year’s struggles by a few, it will be better.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't go that far.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I wouldn't go that far.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I know it was unintentional
But I like the double posting for emphasis here. My “better” viewpoint is mostly based on left and right being better than in 2011. Should more than cancel out some regression. I don’t think Ellsbury is a 30-homer guy again, for instance, but should still be pretty ridiculous. I’m also with you on Adrian.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
Ha ha ha...
Yeah, I was just about to comment about how I apparently REALLY wouldn’t go that far. But, again, the comment hung on me. Razzum frazzum.
Aaaaaaaaaaaaanywho. I think that there are spots that can go up and spots that can go down, and overall, I’m not especially concerned about the offence. But, expecting your offence to carry your pitching is not a good idea, and that’s what happened during the tail end of those months during non-Lester/Beckett starts.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
oh, totally
But, as you already know, I like this year’s pitching better than what Boston ended up with last year. And that’s not to say this year’s is amazing, but competence looks pretty cool next to… well, that.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
And I think that the pitching we have this year
is what we should have in case one our Top 3 goes down and we are forced into the horrible situation where we have to use them, not as part of the actual rotation.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
We've got to get at least two guys to work out though
and of everyone who we’ve signed to minor league contracts/are trying to convert to starters, I really only have faith that Maine and Cook can be anything close to decent, and they have to stay healthy.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
I like Padilla
I mean, his pitching. He is most assuredly a dick.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
The last time he was in the AL he was pretty shit.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
We lost Scutaro and Reddick
Although, admittedly— that doesn’t have the effect some people think it will.
Check out my blog at http://conor-soxrox.blogspot.com
well, right field is easily, hands down, better than it was last year
and shortstop, I would guess, with my assumption that Aviles is getting most of the starts, will probably be about even, maybe a tiny bit of a downgrade, but with more power.
So the lineup is, ostensibly there, and probably better than last year (not factoring in either positive or negative regression)
We have one reliable pitcher
Since Beckett will certainly not be as good as this year. Nor will Ellsbury. And the Yankees/Rays are better.
81-85 wins.
Everything Must Go.
Jays are also better.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
Potentially
Lawrie will help he offense, Santos/Cordero in the pen and maybe an uptick for Rasmus…but you could also argue a regression for Bautista and they still do not get on base very well
We finished 9 games ahead last year.
I have trouble believing that our losing Lackey (heh) and their improved bullpen (plus, more importantly, a full year of Lawrie) makes for a 9-game swing.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 8, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
They could go up 4-5 games
We could drop 4-5 games.
I can see that happening.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Because at SP4, we have a pitcher
who threw like John Lackey against Single A hitters, which is the last time he was a starting pitcher (5 years ago).
If you are intent on trying The Great Experiment, he should be slotted at SP5…but at SP5 we have people who should be break-glass-in-case-of-emergency. Emergency being Buchholz coming back from a broken back and not being good to go. Or Beckett injuring/blistering himself. Or The Great Experiment going down like the Hindenburg.
Sean has said it, but it tends to get lost because people tend to get dismissive of Sean as simply “negative”. The fact of the matter is that we have one (1) starting pitcher about whom we can feel “very confident”.
Now I’m not writing off this season in any way, shape, or form. But Beckett is not consistent from season to season, Buchholz is coming back from a very serious injury, Bard is a HUGE @#$%ing question mark and gamble, and SP5 is throwing shit against the wall and seeing what sticks. And that’s assuming that Lester just remains being Jon Lester.
It is absolutely conceivable that Beckett can repeat his dominant season from last year, that Buchholz can return to form, that one of Kleenex Box SP5 works to some degree, and even (much as I rail against it) that Bard works out to any degree from “acceptable” to “excellent”. I admit to that…but I also am aware that a great deal could fall flat, and that it is would not just be “bad luck”.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
right, I know all of these things
But it ignores the fact that in 2011, we had Lester, Beckett, and crap, which included the worst pitcher in the league. If Bard pitches like Lackey did last year, we’re going to be more inclined to give up on him starting and try out more crap in the rotation than sticking through the year with him, like we did with Lackey. So our rotation really isn’t worse than it was in 2011, it just isn’t better. It certainly doesn’t look like 4-5 wins worse of a rotation to me.
And I while I have little faith in Cook/Padilla/Doubront/Tazawa/whateverthehellelsethereis, I have more faith in them than I have in Miller/Wake/Weiland.
I’m pretty much never dismissive of Sean because of his negativity. He has good points a lot, and they’re pretty much always legitimate- or when he just doesn’t like someone, he’s always willing to admit that he just doesn’t like him. And it’s always clear that he’s rooting for the Sox. I like Sean’s posting a lot.
I feel you're looking at it wrong.
Cuz you’re looking at 2011 in hindsight and projecting for 2012.
When we were projecting for 2011, we had Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Lackey/Dice K. And at the time, that looked pretty @#$%ing awesome. I doubt very highly that in Spring Training 2011, you said, “We have Lester, Beckett, and crap.” We ended up with Lester, Beckett, and crap…but that’s not how we started out. Shit went wrong with what should have been a really good rotation.
Now? Now we have a very weak-looking rotation. What if shit goes wrong with a weak-looking rotation?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
yes im looking in hindsight because we have hindsight here
if we go into the year with Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and crap, and crap goes down, it gets repalced with more crap. That’s less of a drop-off. Lackey last year was worse than crap. He was poop.
Yes, but even our back-ups,
Wakefield/Aceves/Miller, had more promise than our crap. So less upside to our crap, to replace the crap we already have.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I'll strongly disagree with that
I think Cook, Doubront, and Tazawa all have more promise than any of those guys.
And our crap is pretty assuredly better than what Lackey gave us last year. Hell, I might be better. Gimme a shot, Ben.
Of course, to be fair
if you asked me last year, I would’ve had no faith in Wake, been curious about Aceves (who is still there), and been very excited about Miller. I would’ve laughed if you mentioned Weiland.
Doubront.
Isn’t he that fat guy? I’ll have faith in Doubront when he proves he’s worthy of the faith. Tazawa…I have a lot of hope for Tazawa, actually. I saw his first ever start in the bigs (the Youkilis helmet-chucking incident), so I guess I feel a bit of kinship towards him. I’d like to see him do well…I’m not sure if he’s ready to help out this year or not. He lost a year of development after his TJ. Cook…sure, maybe Cook. Miller, currently, is still in our mix, is he not? Yay.
My point is that we can get to this point a lot faster the way we are currently set up. Fast enough to cost us 4 to 5 games.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I just don't see it
see I’d agree if Daisuke was pitching well, or even OK up until he got injured and Lackey wasn’t busy setting ERA records for the amount of innings pitched- but the fact is that from day 1 last year, basically 2/5’s of our rotation was crap. Now, it’s probably the same, it’s just last year, it was big-money, brand-name crap, and this year it’s generic brand.
You seem to be operating under the assumption there is a floor.
I am not.
We started from a “good” place, things went bad, things ended bad.
This year we are starting from a “not good” place. If things go bad, this will end…
You: just as bad.
Me: worse.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
except
last year, we thought we were starting from a good place but weren’t actually. Our perceptions don’t really relate to this at all.
Anything can happen. Sure.
But last year two and a half things went wrong, let’s say. Dice-K and Lackey were write-offs for the full season and Buchholz for half the season. Leaving us with Lester and Beckett and half a year of Buchholz.
This year, if two and a half things go wrong from our starting position of strength, we will end up with, say, half a year of Buchholz and the wish list at the end of the rotation.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
true, assuming that those two things that go wrong
go wrong to Lester and Beckett and not to, say Padilla and John Maine
Well...exactly.
I’m talking hypotheticals here. And making the case that, yes, we can conceivable do worse than last year the way we are currently constructed.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
oh, ok, if that's all were saying
absolutely, we could be. All I was saying from the outset is I’m not sure I see that it IS worse. All kinds of things could happen.
Now look at all this space on the internet we wasted agreeing with each other.
I guess the underlying point
as far as I’m concerned, is that we haven’t constructed our rotation in a way to protect us from that happening.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
yeah, I'll definitely agree there too
I think it’s built so we’re pretty well off if we just get that one more starter (which I do remember you saying before). I think our depth, at least is better than last year- not good, but more plentiful, but certainly I don’t remotely want to be relying on depth to start the year
I would argue against that a bit
Cook easily put up a typical Wakefield season if not better it and Miller shudder not sure he has any upside at all whereas Padilla might make a decent pen arm and fill in a few starts
so we should feel "unconfident" about pitchers because Sean says so?
I get the Buchholz argument,. but Beckett has been pretty darn good since 2007 and has registered 30, 27, 32, 21, 30 starts the past 5 years, so in essense he’s missed a chunk of one season and put up the following xFIPs during those years 3.31, 3.19, 3.30, 3.86, 3.58
BTW
3.97, 3.51, 3.82, 3.31, 3.95 are Oswalt’s xFIPS the last 5 years – oh and he’s got a bad back yet somehow he’s the savior and Beckett is inconsistent and not to be relied upon
I don’t get it
I'm not gonna lie to you, Bob
I don’t understand xFIP, so I can’t speak to it.
But “odd-year Beckett” and “even-year Beckett” has been a fairly established concept around OTM. I’m not saying he goes from Pedro to shit and back, but it hasn’t struck me as “consistent” over his tenure here.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Odd year/even year meme
is all well and good as a meme, but not as a basis for rational decisions by management.
The fact that it is odd & even is just how it lies.
The fact that he isn’t the model of consistency from year-to-year is a very good basis for rational decisions by management.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
But that's mostly perception, I think
When you look at his numbers and peripherals, he is pretty consistent.
Now THAT is some hard-core statistical analysis!
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Sometimes it's simple
He has been absolutely god awful for 2 seasons here. Both of those happened to take place in even years.
Regardless of whether there is anything to the Even/Odd thing, believing that he can be trusted for 180+ good innings is far from a surety.
Everything Must Go.
Yet over the past 5 seasons
He’s put up 4+ WAR years 4 of the 5 and only pitched less than 180 innings once in the 7 seasons he’s been here.
I feel like this blog is caught in that comedy joke
where the guy keeps getting rejected by the girl but after a twisted series of queries / rejections he ends with, “So you are saying there is a chance?”
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
As above.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
no one is talking about replacing Beckett with Oswalt though
we’re talking about replacing crap with Oswalt.
True but it just seems that Beckett is being
painted as “crap” by the whole “we’ve got 1 pitcher” mentality
I’m more of the “We’ve got 3 pitchers” then crap
yeah, agreed
I don’t agree with the assumption that Beckett and Buchholz are both going to be lost for the year- I agree there’s a possibility for each, but that’s very different
We're not calling Beckett crap
at least I’m not. But I’m not sure he can be trusted from one year to the next based on the “even/odd” year Beckett meme that’s already been established here.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
I feel we have 1 RELIABLE pitcher
Both Beckett and Buchholz have routinely been erratic and/or injured from year to year. Lester has been the only constant in the rotation.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
Most pitchers are erratic and/or injured from year to year.
Even minor injuries aside (and Beckett hasn’t missed much time with the Sox overall), very few pitchers have consistent ERAs. That’s why underlying peripherals are important. And Beckett’s are very consistent.
You could pick apart nearly any rotation, even contenders’ ,and find reasons to say they’re unreliable.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 9, 2012 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
Most contenders
Aren’t tossing in $1M bargain bin pitchers to compete for 40% of the rotation spots, which makes the reliability issues in the #2 and #3 spots bigger problems than normal. If Beckett gets one of his famous blisters in April, Padilla could be our #3 starter. That isn’t something any contender is going to have to deal with.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
And if the ace of any pitching staff gets hurt
you’re looking at a much weaker staff.
Is our rotation in the top three in the AL? Probably not. But it’s not far behind, and it has more than one reliable pitcher.
You can also put too much stock in “reliability”. Wakefield was reliable. I’d rather have good. Beckett is far more valuable than a lot of “reliable” pitchers, because he makes up for “only” averaging 186 innings a season by pitching great for those 186 innings.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 9, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Considering all depth, I would rather have the rotation of the: Yankees, Rays, Tigers, Angels, and Rangers for certain, and consider us about in line with Chicago and Cleveland. For a team that for two straight years and point heavily to injuries as it’s downer, we need more reliable, good, solid, insert adjective, pitching to compete with these teams, especially since our offensive superiority is going to be heavily contested by the additions of Pujols and Fielder to the AL.
Beckett is generally healthy, but his performances vary from and over 4, high 3’s, high 5’s to sub 3 in his last four seasons, he’s all over the place, there is no number you could make a solid bet on, he hits the whole spectrum and you can do that with just about any continuous 4 year sample of his career.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
Been a long time.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
As I recollect.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
We aren't signing him for 75 million dollars?
And Oswalt hasn’t put up multiple 5+ ERA seasons? And, iirc, Beckett almost always underperforms his FIPs, no?
Everything Must Go.
How did you come up with this:
so we should feel “unconfident” about pitchers because Sean says so?
I’m saying that Sean has made a good point, but that the fact that it is a good point gets lost because a lot of people dismiss that it’s a good point because it’s “just Sean being negative again”.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I've just heard the "we've got 1 starting pitcher"
over and over again and I tend to relate that to Sean
It just seems fatalistic to me
It's worst-case-scenario, for sure.
And I’m not saying it’s going to happen. But, it is certainly very possible.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
True as possible as the opposite happening
There just seems to be no middle-ground. We’ve become a camp of left-wing liberals and uber-conservative right-wingers….where are my damn moderates!
I think that's me
I think I just argue with the liberals and the conservatives enough that both think I’m on the other side.
Well, if you go back to my original comment,
here, I simply said that I can see us dropping 4-5 games in the win column. I certainly didn’t say that we would.
In spite of my strong, strong misgivings about how this offseason has unfolded, I believe I, personally, have been pretty clear in stating that I don’t feel this season is a write-off.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I mean, it's definitely possible
I just like to think we were on the low end of the luck spectrum last year, and the luck isn’t going to go down further. May/may not be true.
I would like to think that, too.
But bad luck hit us when we were stacked to win. What happens if bad luck hits us when we are in a vulnerable state?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
We haven't made it past the ALDS since Schilling left the team
Haven’t made it to the playoffs since Lowell left. They were our cursebreakers.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
WELL CLEARLY.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
So now our strategy
is don’t try and hope that we catch lightning in a bottle?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I don't think that either BZ or myself
are saying that this right here is the ideal team we would love to have.
Personally, I just don’t think it’s worse than last years team. Which is something akin to damning with faint praise.
well let me try to give some perspective to the way I'm thinking
think about the players that we had last year that we don’t have this year:
Lackey
Daisuke (at least to start the year)
Drew
Varitek
Wake
Reddick
Lowrie
Scutaro
Papelbon
If we take the rotation guys there, did they help us to win at all? If not, I just don’t understand how the rotation is any worse off than it was last year.
Not "is"
“can be”.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Not disputing that for a second.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
That is in no way the 'worst case scenario'.
The “We’ve got 1 starting pitcher” scenario is the (low probility) scenario where Beckett & Buchholz both either get injured or otherwise fail to be there for us.
The “worst case scenario” is the scenario where that happens PLUS Lester, A-Gon, DP, Ortiz and a few others all ALSO get injured for significant spell.
I have an idea: Why don’t we go into the season stressing and worrying that all 25 members of the opening day roster will spend an average of 80 games on the DL? It could happen. That’s a fact!
Doesn’t that sound like fun?
I’m sorry but this conversation seems a bit out there. There are always going to be ‘worst case scenarios’. There is only so much you can do to ‘protect yourself’ from injuries. In each of the last years we’ve gone into the season believing we had an excess of starters – and it still wasn’t enough. So yeah, once in a blue moon the ‘worst case scenario’ is going to happen. It can even happen a couple of years in a row.
But you can’t manage the roster as if it is ALWAYS going to go down like that. Unless you are the Yankees, the budget is ultimately going to curb your ability to stock up on depth. You have to manage to the odds.
And the odds are against our pitching having the same sort of epic collapse that occurred last year.
Sure, the worst could happen. If it does, it will be beyond our control and almost certainly not something that could have been protected against by anything the front office can do. I just don’t see the point as a fan of acting as if the worst case scenario WILL happen. It might. I don’t claim that it won’t. But it probably won’t.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Oh, COME ON, M5. You're better than that.
The “worst case scenario” is a lot closer to the scenario that happened to the Russian hockey team’s plane went down and they all died.
How about you go stress about that.
The rest of us will analyze legitimate scenarios where one pitcher who has a history of being inconsistent has that history to repeat itself and a pitcher who came back from a broken freaking back doesn’t pitch as well as he normally might and how the crap at the back of the rotation perform like…wait for it…crap.
You have to manage to the odds.
Odds are that the pitcher who was terrible in Single A pitches terrible in Major League Baseball. Odds are that pitchers you pull out of the dumpster stink of refuse. You manage those odds by signing someone that has a history of competence, so if one of your guys who would/should perform well (Beckett/Buchholz) doesn’t/goes down, you’ve got this guy, and you can use the trash heap to fill in for competent guy.
This, essentially, is the "so much you can do to ‘protect yourself’ from injuries. " that I was talking about. I’m sorry if that didn’t get across somehow.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Oooh ... good point about the plane crash!
That totally defeats my point.
You don’t want to be called on the hyperbole? Then don’t use it. Otherwise, sorry, I may not be ‘better than that’.
“The rest of us will analyze legitimate scenarios "
You are now claiming ownership over what are the ‘legitimate’ scenarios?
“Odds are that the pitcher who was terrible in Single A pitches terrible in Major League Baseball.”
Tell me, what exactly are those odds? 1 in 10? 5 to 1? What. If this is so legitimate, what are the odds? Wait – what pitcher are you even talking about? Do we have a pitcher in the rotation who ’was terrible in Single A that who we are relying on to pitch in the Majors?
“Odds are that pitchers you pull out of the dumpster stink of refuse. "
What pitchers have we pulled out of the dumpster and give me your odds – your projections of their performance. You are providing legitimate discussion here now.
Look – I do not look at this with rose colored glasses. I fall smack in the camp of “What are the reasonable projections of how the roster we have will perform?” But what I keep hearing from the ‘pessimists’ are not projections but rather a constant stream of ‘What if THIS bad thing happens? Or THAT bad thing happens?’. Certainly bad things can happen that defeat those projections. Players out-perform and under-perform every year. But those are things that will happen no matter what.
The answer to the question of “What if this bad thing happens?” is simply that – bad things happen.
As to ‘protecting oneself’, a) there is a budget and b) there is a market. Ben clearly managed his budget to have enough money to land another pitcher but the market is constrained. Oswalt is apparently within our price, but if the man doesn’t want to live here then there is not much one can do. There are places in the country I won’t move to as well.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
How is vomiting money for utterly useless
pieces like Shoppach and NICK PUNTO ‘managing his budget’?
Everything Must Go.
I mean, Punto's salary is essentially the same as Lowrie's
I’ll approve of the Shoppach thing if and only if it prepares Lavarnway to be our primary catcher before the year is over.
You are nitpicking bullshit
and missing the overall point.
Exactly what are the odds. What do I look like, a Vegas bookie? You realize that most pitchers go through the minor league system and reach higher levels based on performance at the lower level, right? When this pitcher pitched in Single A, he stunk. He spent the rest of his time climbing the ranks of minor league baseball as a relief pitcher, and hasn’t started a baseball game in 5 years.
Wait – what pitcher are you even talking about? Do we have a pitcher in the rotation who ’was terrible in Single A that who we are relying on to pitch in the Majors?
Am I even supposed to take this seriously? Don’t insult me.
The problem you seem to be having is that you are lumping all “pessimists” in one big, convenient pile. There are some here that say, “There’s no way we win 90 games” others who say, “We’ll be lucky to win 90 games” and there are others still who say, "It’s conceivable that we could win less than 90 games. You can decide to ignore that if you wish and attack all “pessimists”, but it flat out wrong and can’t be taken seriously.
The answer to the question of "What if this bad thing happens?" is simply that – bad things happen.
WRONG. Absolutely wrong. It goes more like this:
The answer to the question of "What if this bad thing happens?" issimply that– bad things happen, so we compensated for that scenario thusly.
Like signing a Kuroda on a reasonable, one year contract. Like signing that guy that AlohaSox is all up in arms about who signed a nice, cheap contract with another team (whose name, frustratingly, escapes me right now). Things like that. Especially with Larry Lucchino stating that we are going to fly by the luxury tax.
It amuses and frustrates me, equally, to no end that in a community where it is encouraged to look at moves intelligently and then provide your reasoned opinion, if that opinion happens to be disapproving, you are overly negative and a “pessimist”.
I, and many like me, feel that starting pitching was the spot where the Boston Red Sox needed the most improvement, and yet that is the spot that seems to have been the most neglected. It is not unreasonable to state that case and provide possible outcomes because of it.
MMMMM, to the best of my recollection, I’ve never had any major heat with you before. You decided to start in with this snarky tone, so that’s why I felt that you were “better than that.”
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Doesn't have to be
They just need to win a couple extra games against us to put the Angels or Rays in the WC
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
Ha!
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
"To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong." – H. L. Mencken
by Lloyd Christmas on Feb 9, 2012 8:24 AM EST up reply actions
I also agree with this comment...
… although I think the article tends to overlook the admittedly minute and incomprehensible possibility that people who have negative opinions of the Red Sox’s management of their offseason might actually be Red Sox fans who want their team to win – as opposed to some sort of Crypto-Yankee cult whose desire to shit on all things Boston and say that they knew better has blinded them to the manifest truth that Daniel Bard will split the AL Cy Young with Vicente Padilla while Carlos Silva wins Sportsman of the Year.
But like I said, I can’t tell how serious the article actually is.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
OMG, You think the Red Sox will lose?
Clearly you're not a Red Sox fan and want the team to lose.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 8, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
lol’d at the “Crypto-Yankee cult” lines, but it’s an insane straw man. Marc didn’t say that blind pessimism was keeping you from seeing this as an historic team; just that optimism is more fun, and likely closer to the mark when you look at things objectively.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 8, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
Less of a straw man than an exaggeration...
… I know that no one expects a historic team. As it happens, despite my being critical, I do think this is a ~90 win team. I just think the implication that pessimism is motivated by something other than an honest assessment that there are things to be doubtful about edges towards dishonesty. And, again, I think the article’s tone was probably intended to be lighter than all this (I can tell because I’m having an argument about rhetoric and not baseball).
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
The motivations for blind optimism are obvious when you have a rooting interest. But what ARE the motivations for blind pessimism?
by abbreviatedman on Feb 8, 2012 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
Not to say that NBN is blindly pessimistic
because he most assuredly is not, but it is to protect yourself from the fall.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Huh.
Okay, that makes some sense. Thanks!
Agreed that Marc probably should have been nicer to the motivations for the blind pessimizers here.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 8, 2012 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
Marc probably should have been nicer to the motivations for the blind pessimizers here.
I don’t think it was his main purpose – I just wanted to point out that the pessimism seems to be honest and – speaking only for myself – pretty handily re-assessed/abandoned when it results from an initial overreaction and/or being generally unhappy because of other management moves (see, e.g., Bailey, Melatonin).
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
And that sentence structure is another thing to be pessimistic about.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
Matt, you mean?
I’ve only commented, it’s not my piece.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Oops!
Yes, Matt I meant.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
From Dogeball
Kate Veatch: I’m curious, is it strictly apathy, or do you really not have a goal in life?
Peter La Fleur: I found that if you have a goal, that you might not reach it. But if you don’t have one, then you are never disappointed. And I gotta tell ya… it feels phenomenal.
I'd say that neither the optimism or the pessimism are blind.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Which raises and interesting philosophical question...
… about what people get out of sports fandom.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
And again with the bad language arts skills
“an” not “and”
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:49 PM EST up reply actions
How about this:
To suffer woes which Hope thinks infinite; (1978, 1986, 2003)
To forgive wrongs darker than death or night; (or winning 7 games in September)
To defy Power, which seems omnipotent; (the MFY)
To love, and bear; to hope till Hope creates
From its own wreck the thing it contemplates; (2004)
thanks,matthew
i don’t see the 2012 sox as that much worse – maybe pretty much the same – as the 2011 model, which everyone and his grandma picked to romp to a third title in eight years. the competition has gotten tougher but even a .500 mark last september would have put us at 97 wins, so i’m content moving forward. and very excited about this year.
Try to keep your personal feelings out of your articles, you’re a journalist.*
It’s an essay/column. Which are, by definition, personal opinions.
by joyofsox on Feb 8, 2012 9:33 AM EST reply actions 2 recs
Optimism? There is blood in the water....
cue SeanO and TheLoneDavid!
I can't tell if this is a joke article or not
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 12:08 PM EST reply actions
"when I say 'healthy' I mean 'excessively large'.
is a phrase subject to many interpretations, not all of which are baseball related and some of which are actually pretty funny.
You mean like...
when I say “healthy” I mean “excessively large.”
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Unfortunately
it is not a phrase I have heard in this context.
Just gotta meet the right woman
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
In your case one who is a really good liar ;)
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
In all candor
I have yet to meet the woman who has attached the word “Excessively” to the word “large”
Yeah, I've never heard "excessively" either.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
There's really little reason to believe that we'll be worse than last year.
90 wins is this team’s floor. Unless you believe that Bard and the Rotationettes will give Boston a worse performance than Lackey, Wakefield, Weiland, and Miller’s Boeing ERAs, and that Buchholz won’t top 80 innings, this pitching staff is way better than the last one. The hitting has some positive regressions (LF, RF, and possibly even 1B and 3B) and some negative regressions (Ortiz and Ellsbury), but even the most negative projections would still give us a top three offense in the league.
If you look at projections for individual performances, they can’t help but add up to at least 90 wins. For example, even the most pessimistic of the three projections on FG (RotoChamps, the other two being the Fan projections and the Bill James system) has Carl at .270/.317/.431 for the year, a 30-point increase in wOBA and a 50-point increase in OPS. Even CAIRO, a sabermetric YANKEE FAN’S projection system, has Crawford improving by 2 wins.
Put another way: you’d have to have a special reason to be particularly pessimistic on Boston’s players in particular to project less than 90 wins. If you’re projecting worse health from Youkilis, you’d have to project the same for A-Rod and Teixeira. A pessimistic projection system sinks all boats, leaving us the same on a relative scale.
Put another another way: no one but pessimistic Red Sox fans project Boston’s individual performances to add up to less than last year’s. I’ll believe objective projections and common-sense regression, thanks.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 8, 2012 12:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
"you’d have to have a special reason to be particularly pessimistic on Boston’s players in particular"
We have one reliable pitcher. That is all.
Everything Must Go.
Stated as fact.
by Sean O, Feb 8, 2012 3:56 PM PST.
So it is written. So it shall be.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Thanks Matt
Sorry that everyones a dick to you for no reason.
Really?
Is that what’s going on here?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Seemed to me that Red Sox fans were responding to an article on the nature of fandom.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I have to take care of my kids now so I can’t really comment any further right now than saying that it wasn’t my intention to denigrate anyone’s fandom. I’m sorry if that’s how it came across. Beyond that I’ll be happy to respond to comments later today. Sorry I can’t do more now.
Writer at Over The Monster. Follow me on Twitter! It'll be super awesome fun! @mattymatty2000
This is the internet. _SOMEONE_ can take _ANYTHING_ in just about any way possible!
No matter how extreme or unreasonable.
:-\
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
For my part...
… I didn’t take it as a slight. I just wanted to point out – because we’ve had this issue at the end of the past couple of seasons – that people who are pessimists aren’t just doing it to be dicks. I don’t think I assumed that this was the point of the article, but it seemed like a good opportunity to mention it. Sorry to turn the article into a argument.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
sure, perhaps,
but your first comment there sounded like you were pretty directly taking offense to something in the article that wasn’t in it…
Who wants, I mean really wants, to think their team is bad? And what’s the point anyway? The team either is bad or it isn’t, regardless of what you see in it. Sure, the desire to be able to say “I told you so” is a strong one that I’m not immune to, but when it comes down to things, being there with your team is the thing that we all hold onto in the end.
I think that this justifies my first comment to some extent, but I’ll also cop to some irritation with comments by others in other threads which suggest a less polite version of a sentiment which might reasonably underlie this statement.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
And when I say "point out,"
I wasn’t presuming to point it out to you in particular, I just think of it as something that needs to get mentioned in general.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 8, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions
As one of the lollipop kids
I have been authorized to share the Red Sox lollipop recipe. Active ingredients assume strong offensive performances (including inevitable variations from 2011, but strong nevertheless) from Gonzo, PD, Youk, Crawford, Ells, Sweeney/Ross, Salty; solid to excellent defense from all positions; sturdy though imperfect SP from the top 3, and much improved SP over 2011 by any combination of experiment/reclamation/emergence and another signing from Bard or Acevas/ Padilla,
Matsuzaka or Cook/Doubront or Tazawa/
Oswalt, Floyd, Garza or other. And an equally strong and deep Pen starting with Bailey, Sharky, Morales, Acevas, Albers and a host of good arms for #5,6,7.
Stir all this together with a large portion of embarrassment, righteous anger, motivation, a talented new manager who has already taken charge, an ST full of true competition and a return to basics. These should be enough to make for grand prix level lollipops in terms of ingredients and preparation techniques, but there is more, akin to the final aging
in an old solera.
2012 is not only a “gotta win” year for Ben, BobbyV, Larry, and coaches, it’s also a “gotta keep ’em healthy and happy” for the new medical, training and clubhouse staff. Think of
the on top of their game preparation and support by these guys. And still there is more:
The Sox, at every level, want to WIN, not just to erase September, but to make the celebration of The Fenway Cathedral’s Centennial and the Opening of Fenway South, the launch of the ‘next wave’ from the vaunted Farm (Lava, Kalish, Iggy, Doubront, Tazawa, Wilson, Middlebrooks, Lin) a year to remember. Basically, whatever Ben and Bobby need to win, after the threshing floor of ST 2012, is what they will get. Patience.
All that makes a gold medal lollipop.
a winning season
by GerryT on Feb 8, 2012 4:09 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Out of curiosity, where did all the fanposts go?
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
SBNation decided they were, in general, too negative
and as such, weren’t "Fan"posts, per se.
OK, now I’m trolling.
by wolf9309 on Feb 8, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Rec'd, nonetheless.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Well played, Naomi Price!
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
I believe they might have been related to the 503 errors earlier today
But don’t quote me on that. Either way, they are working towards fixing that.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 8, 2012 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
I've been very optimistic the last two years
And I was optimistic in September too. I just don’t see the point in getting my hopes up anymore. Between the Sox collapse, the Eagles sucking right out of the gate, the PSU disaster, the Union trading my two favorite players, the lord smiting Sidney Crosby and the Celts trying their hardest to look bad for the first third of the year, my fandom is at an all time low.
The Red Sox had an opportunity to build a roster that in my perception would have been better than the one we currently have, and instead of pursuing that option to improve our starting pitcher Ben moved dirt from here to there, he shored up positions we didn’t have true need at and created platoons that rely on the health of a team that has tried it’s damnedest to not stay healthy these last two years. Punto/Aviles and Ross/Sweeney sound nice in theory, but how do they sound individually as starters? Not as good, detrimental to the offense even.
We could have skipped Andrew Bailey, Sweeney, Shoppach and Ross, gone with Reddick, Scutaro, Bard as a closer, and Lavarnway and likely have had enough to stretch out to sign say Kuroda. I would have far more belief in that roster than I do this one. But that isn’t the path they pursued and I think it was a big mistake.
And don’t toss projections my way saying they’ll be fine, the only way for me to feel better about this team is if they actually win and prove me wrong. I would just have to dig up a 2011 Carl Crawford projection to point out how pointless projections can be and how in the end, they don’t mean crap. You can’t point out that the team should be extra motivated to win this year for all the crap that happened in 2011, they should have been extra motivated to win in 2011 for all the crap that happened in 2010 and they flat out didn’t.
The pessimism crowd isn’t hoping to be right, we aren’t rooting against the team, we’ll still cheer them on just as hard come April, we just don’t agree with the process.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
by Rogue Nine on Feb 8, 2012 8:29 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
+1
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
That is, indeed, fair.
And I’d add that the “Our health sucked two years in a row, it might not be an outlier any more,” argument is the only honest, logical reason to be pessimistic about this team.
That said, if absolutely terrible health is what it takes to sink us to 90 wins, that’s our floor, and I’m pretty happy with a 90+ win team. Should be fun to watch with a very good chance at the playoffs.
Which is, frankly, more entertaining than thinking we have a 100-game winner who’s a sure thing at the playoffs, which is actually kind of a bummer to watch; no chance of positive surprises, there.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 8, 2012 8:45 PM EST up reply actions
You think we have competent roster construction?
Having 3 catchers, no RF solution and NICK PUNTO in a starting role is acceptable?
Everything Must Go.
Who is the third catcher?
Writer at Over The Monster. Follow me on Twitter! It'll be super awesome fun! @mattymatty2000
Salty, Lavarnway, Shoppach
Sean’s saying that if we started with Lavarnway in the majors we’d have had that much more money to make a run at a real starter.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 8, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
Ok, everything except the RF bit.
With the Ross signing you should admit that isn’t true.
Ross is a meh player
Theoretically he’ll be fine in a platoon, if he can handle a platoon, and if Ryan Sweeney greatly surpasses his expectations (and actually puts up a good defensive season for a change).
There is so little to be excited about with this club, and that’s even without looking at our utterly disastrous rotation. You can’t make the playoffs in the AL East with a poorly-constructed roster, especially one without depth.
At least it’ll be easy to replace a great number of positions with AAAA scrubs.
Everything Must Go.
RF
There was no way of knowing that Reddick would have been any better especially considering that his late season trends were just pretty awful. When doing a direct comparison against what we “got” from RF last year – Sweeney/Ross could harrdly be worse – Heck if you just handed one of them the job outright without the platoon they could hardly be worse
Except I see no reason to believe either will be acceptable in RF
at Fenway Park, which is roughly the size of the moon. Ross is roughly average to mediocre, and Sweeney seems to be viewed as a plus defender because people say so, not because of any stats (which have shown him as not being good since 2009). Maybe they’ll outpace expectations, but there is zero upside between the two of them. Reddick had a chance, at least, of advancement.
Considering the hilarious disaster we have at SS, with NICK PUNTO starting… ugh.
Everything Must Go.
So your projection is that Ross & Sweeney will combine to produce less than 0.7 WAR?
Because that is what we got from RF last year:
.233 BA, .302 OBP, .369 SLG, .292 wOBA
Cody Ross’ career wOBA is .337. Bill James projects .327, RotoChamp .325.
Ryan Sweeney’s career wOBA is .318. BJ projects .325, RC .318.
Those career numbers and projections ignore platoon splits.
Are James & RotoChamps’ projections both cases of ‘outpacing expectations’?
Whose expectations? Yours? What are they?
Saying that you believe neither ‘will be acceptable’ isn’t telling us much. What do you view as acceptable? What kind of production do you think we need from RF to be better than last year?
Is ‘upside’ a necessary requirement here in order for the team to simply be better than last year? Is it not okay to just get decent production while the team looks for a more long term ‘upside’ solution at RF?
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
I'm not certain they will be defensively acceptable, no
Offensively, perhaps, especially compared to last year’s shitshow. But regardless, I think Reddick had the glove and the upside, so I’d rather he be out there.
Upside is a personal concern, I’d rather have some hope than none.
Generally, I would assume that 2012 RF + SS could easily be lower than 2011 RF + SS, since NICK PUNTO is going to get a ton of ABs.
Everything Must Go.
Oh, so we've moved the goal post to defense only?
How about a UZR projection, then?
What, exactly are you projecting us to get out of RF + SS?
Seriously, if I’m to truly understand your concerns I think it’s fair to try to understand exactly what it is YOU are projecting. Because no one else I am aware of is projecting Ross, Sweeney & Punto to be worse in total production than the production we got out of their slots last year. If you are, then what is it? And if it differs drastically from others’ projections – then why?
Is this an unfair question?
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
This.
Some people here simply aren’t doing their homework. Give us a projection of how you think, say, Carl Crawford or Ryan Sweeney will do. And then show us how you got there.
Otherwise, just saying that Crawford won’t improve or that Ryan Sweeney will somehow be worse than what we got last year without any reason for believing that every projection and comparison to last year’s numbers is wrong is just pessimism for pessimism’s sake.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 10, 2012 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
Crawford's got roughly a full season's worth of data saying he sucks in Fenway and even more data saying he sucks away from the Trop in general
that’s where I’ve determined he’s going to blow.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 10, 2012 6:27 PM EST up reply actions
That's... not a statistically meaningful way to look at the data.
Almost every player does better at home than on the road. That’s a much simpler explanation for why he wasn’t as good away from home pre-2011 than that he can only hit in one ballpark.
And, surprise surprise, he continued to do better at home last year. At Fenway. Where you’re saying he sucks.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 10, 2012 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
The theory that he had a bad year last year
due in no doubt no small part to being injured is a much more logical explanation than that he can’t hit at Fenway (which is not only a less logical explanation but explicitly false for last year).
by abbreviatedman on Feb 10, 2012 6:51 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, but his performance at Fenway
was better than his performance on the road. So it’s not Fenway.
Saying he’s better at home than on the road (like 95% of players) explains his splits completely.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 10, 2012 10:57 PM EST up reply actions
Bullshit
a dropoff that severe says something’s going on in Tampa Bay, moreso than normal home/road splits. Especially when most of his teammates were better offensively on the road than at home.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 10, 2012 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
That the cement block in front of home plate in Tampa is artificially improving Crawford's BABIP.
He’s got similar numbers in the Metrodome and Rodger’s Center, which have the same block in front of home plate. It speeds up ground balls, which makes the shortstop play farther back and have to throw the ball farther to first, or makes the ball go high, over the shortstop’s head.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 11, 2012 1:50 AM EST up reply actions
Why isn't it helping B.J. Upton, then?
Or other fast players, who’s presumably be assisted by speedier groundballs?
Seems more likely to be statistical noise to me, though you might really have something here.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 11, 2012 9:28 AM EST up reply actions
Crawford has a career 50% GB rate
BJ Upton’s has been closer to 40% lately, that could explain it.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 11, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
don't buy it remotely
in part because if we look at Crawford’s stats with the Rays from 2004-2010 (the years he was generally very good), he had a high BABIP on the road than at home 4 times of 7. the last 4 years of that, he had a higher BABIP on the road 3 out of 4 times
Dammit
I just accidentally deleted a ton of stuff that I had typed up, so I’m going to leave the #’s out where I can, unless someone doubts them, in which case I’ll pull them back up.
There’s probably something here. Crawford is a speedy groundball hitter, career 50% GB%, 1.61 GB/FB. It makes sense that he would benefit playing on a fast surface.
Rocco Baldelli, speedy GB hitter, had a .327 BABIP at the Trop, .317 career.
This could explain why Casey Kotchman, who though not fleet of foot, has even higher GB rates, saw a significant spike in 2011. Yes, he actually posted a nominally higher BABIP on the road then at home, but it doesn’t mean there wasn’t an effect.
The problem though, is that until a detailed study is performed (or more likely made available to the public, cause you have to figure TB has done this) with a much larger sample, a control group, etc., we can’t know just how much of an impact there is.
Julio Lugo and Crawford have remarkably similar career GB% and GB/FB rates, are both speedy players. Yet, over +1000 Pas, Lugo’s actually posted a lower BABIP (.299) at Tampa than his career average (.312).
We also can’t ignore B.J. Upton as done. Strong GB hitter (45%), 1.21 GB/FB, also speedy. .317 BABIP at the Trop., career .327.
There’s other, though probably lesser, factors in play here as well. LDs don’t pad the BABIP in the same way that GBs do, but they also don’t hurt them like FBs do. Crawford’s the only one from this group to maintain an above average LD% for his career. He takes that LD% with him to Boston.
So what it comes back to is, just using basic logic, Crawford probably benefited from the Trop. The surface suits his strengths. But we don’t know just how much he benefited, how much of the benefit we should attribute to each of his strengths, and how much of those strengths he carries with him to Boston.
Twitter: @Greenlineoutfit
I would be happy to take a look at that study. If I can find the information I'll make a fanpost.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 11, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty much
I expect roughly .700 OPS and continued disappointing defense.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 10, 2012 11:12 PM EST up reply actions
"Acceptable in RF" means Acceptable in RF
Goal posts are not being moved.
Punto is a garbagetime player, with a career 76 OPS+. Sweeney hasn’t had a positive UZR since 2009 and hits like garbage, and Ross is what he is.
The offense will be fine, though we’ve managed to create several holes for no good reason at all, and didn’t marshal our resources from their removal.
In the end, I’m guessing our offense in general will perform much like last year. Regression from Ortiz and Ellsbury balanced by the potential increase from Gonzo and RF.
We will die by our nonexistent rotation.
Everything Must Go.
I fail to see
how this rotation isn’t better than last year’s. We got NOTHING from 3-4-5 last year. Scratch that — we got WAY worse than nothing. The guys we have for 3-4-5 project to do WAY better than what we did last year.
If the offense is the same, then a rotation with 5+ ERA guys in the 3, 4, and 5 slots would give us 90 wins. And I don’t know how you can project Buchholz, Bard, and the Rotationettes to all give you ERAs above 5.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 10, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Rec'd
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
Amen!
"If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life." Manny Somebody-or-other
by Tessie's Dad on Feb 8, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
LOL
I just don’t see the point in getting my hopes up anymore. Between the Sox collapse, the Eagles sucking right out of the gate, the PSU disaster, the Union trading my two favorite players, the lord smiting Sidney Crosby and the Celts trying their hardest to look bad for the first third of the year, my fandom is at an all time low.
I’m sorry, Rogue. I feel for you. But I’m not real sympathetic.
The reason I feel for you is because at various stages of my life I have endured the epic futility that was the decades of Red Sox agony prior to 2004, the first few painful decades of Mariner and Seahawk existence, along with Sonics after 1979 (I lived in Washington way back then), the Orioles during the 90’s (I lived Baltimore for a while) and most painfully for me, the two decades of Celtic frustration prior to 2008.
Sheesh – I can’t tell you how miserable it was to be a Mariner fan from the first day of their existence. Season after season of just f’ing things up one way after another. Showing up at the 65,000-seat Kingdome to see less than 8000 fans (if that) scattered about the vast expanse of concrete. That franchise was SO poorly run – it was like a bizarre, tragic comedy.
The Seahawks. Oh my god. They too were just miserable through those early years. And the Patriots were mostly the Patsies during that era.
The only thing that kept my fandom up was holding onto the Sonics 1979 title and then the Celtics in the early 80s when my favorite player, Dennis Johnson joined the Celtics. And that was great for a few awesome years … and then Bias and Lewis died and there was darkness.
You want misery? I lived in Baltimore to experience first hand their 0-21 start to the 88 season. I WENT to around a third of those games!
As Red Sox fans … how can we not remember what life was like for SO FREAKING LONG here?
If your ‘fandom is at an all-time low’, I’m sorry, I have empathy – I’ve been through my share of misery – but I don’t have much sympathy.
You feel bad for yourself? Fine. But you are using your pain to justify dictating at others: “And don’t toss projections my way saying they’ll be fine”.
If you don’t want to read projections that don’t lead to a miserable result for the Red Sox all you have to do is .. don’t read them.
Being pessimistic is fine. It is perfectly fair to offer critical analysis of the moves by the RS front office. But too often the ‘pessimism crowd’ on this board has instead been simply
a) projecting failure outcomes as if it is stamped in concrete and
b) virulently rejecting any projection that isn’t negative as being overly optimistic – even if based on completely neutral and even conservative premises and
c) dressing this behavior in the cloak of ‘being realistic’.
Failure is certainly a possible outcome of this season. Last year showed that even with what looked like an amazing team on paper going in, that failure was still a possibility coming out. But so what? Shall we just give up and not even play the season out?
This strategy of, “I don’t want to get hurt so I’ll protect myself from failure by … predicting it, yeah!” is, imho, just a fool’s umbrella. Full of holes. Sure, it gives you the solace of saying, “I told you so!”, but it isn’t going to make the pain any less.
I don’t expect everyone to agree with what the Red Sox FO has done so far. And I don’t expect everyone to be optimistic about how the season is going to play out. But the constant, almost irrational rejection of any attempt to look at what is going on in anything but a negative light on this board has gotten crazy.
After the Bird Celtics’ declined, I had nothing for the longest time. I still lived out west. The M’s sucked. The Seahawks sucked. On this side the Celtics sucked. The Red Sox teased and failed. The Patsies were still the Patsies. I moved to Bal’mer and the formerly always contending Orioles became endlessly horrible. Literally, the day I left they were just a couple of games out and by the time I drove across the country they had fallen like a stone and never came back. Life sucked for me as a sports fan.
And then 1995 happened. The M’s came back from down 0-2 to the Yankees to win their first ever playoff series! It was by far, at the time, the most awesome sports fan feeling I had ever had. The only thing that could top it was … 2004.
During the last decade I have been spoiled and I know it. I have enjoyed all these titles and I intend to hold on to that because I know how long it could be until the next one.
Hang on to your fandom. Don’t give in to the darkness.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Lions fan
0-16 trumps just about anything anyone has to say about how bad their team is. At least you won a game.
Plus, y’know, Matt Millen.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 10, 2012 2:18 AM EST up reply actions
Oh gawd - You poor soul ...
At least you saw signs of hope this year! Hang on to that!
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Snyder's bad, but he never went 0-16
and William Clay Ford was never a good owner, he’s only opened the checkbook now because his family convinced him he wants to win before he dies.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 10, 2012 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
But too often the ‘pessimism crowd’ on this board has instead been simply
a) projecting failure outcomes as if it is stamped in concrete and
b) virulently rejecting any projection that isn’t negative as being overly optimistic – even if based on completely neutral and even conservative premises and
c) dressing this behavior in the cloak of ‘being realistic’.
Here’s the problem, anyone, on any side of any debate here could be classified as any of those. And let’s be real, EVERYONE here is C, mostly because C boils down to, people post what they believe. I certainly don’t post things because I believe I’m being unrealistic, that doesn’t even make sense. When someone posts, the Red Sox rotation is a top 3 rotation, they say it because they believe it to be realistic and when someone says we only have 1 starter, they too say it because they believe it to be realistic.
As for B, I think this community has done that to itself. If people had been more interested in debating back during the Shoppach, Bailey and Melancon deals instead of immediately rejecting any negativity regarding them as baseless, maybe there would be more interest in debate now. I feel just a couple months ago a lot of people used your C for the other side, feeling they were realistic while virulently attacking those who thought the deals might undo our ability to sign starters.
And A only describes a handful of people. But also from both sides, I do recall someone recently replied to me on Crawford with a projection that said he was going to be worth about 4 WAR this year, therefor it was stupid to believe he might post similar results to 2011, because the projection said so. That is admittedly just as bad as saying we are at best a 90 win team. But I’m not A, I haven’t been absolute, matter of fact, or cemented in concrete with my opinions, when I have an opinion, I present it as such, not as fact.
In the end I’m much closer to Aloha than Sean, I feel we are a starter away from contending, but I’m also hyper aware of the other things I can see going wrong with this team because I feel they are the same things that have downed the last two editions of the Red Sox. However if I’m going to run in one direction or another in debate, at this point, it’s towards Sean. I was a very vocal critic of him over the last couple of years, but with my experiences this offseason, I see it isn’t easy to be in his position and while I can’t stand behind every position of his, I know exactly where it’s coming from.
But the constant, almost irrational rejection of any attempt to look at what is going on in anything but a negative light on this board has gotten crazy.
I don’t think we feel it is irrational, almost everything that has “gone on” this offseason to me has been negative. When I felt the only thing this team needed was a good starting pitcher, and every single move made did not result in that end, how can I view it positively? I admitted in just about every transaction thread, that in a vacuum, any of the moves we made could be classified as good ones, but this team is not in a vacuum and doing one thing here or there impacts our ability to do others, what we did I feel prevented us from acquiring a starter so I can’t applaud those moves because I feel they didn’t result in any real progress for the team. All I have is criticism for what has “gone on” and from my point of view, is that unreasonable?
And in the spirit of what you said, this is a blog, and blogs are all about opinions and right now a lot of the opinions here feel a certain way and if you don’t like them… don’t read them.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
by Rogue Nine on Feb 9, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
See all that?
That’s the good shit right there.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Fair responses, for the most part
And in the spirit of what you said, this is a blog, and blogs are all about opinions and right now a lot of the opinions here feel a certain way and if you don’t like them… don’t read them.
But please keep it clear – I have never told anyone to not post their opinions or projections. I’ve even specifically asked for projections.
I’m simply not agreeing with the extremity of many of them and pointing out how I don’t understand the thinking of some.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
As usual you are point on
and as with just about everything in our hopped-up society the far-ends get the news regardless of how much of a minority they truly are. In fact both far-reaching ideas get so much press that we actually begin to think that the majority is shifted to one side or the other when its actually somewhere in the middle – where it belongs
OTM used to have a wider variety of opinions,
where many different people would present interesting new cases. We’ve lost some of that.
I think part of the problem with that this offseason has been...
We’re resigned to that we don’t have the money to be too creative or daring. We all know what we’d like, another starting pitcher and to me anyway, I felt we weren’t going to get one in mid-December. It’s tough to feel inspired to come up with new cases when you know the likelihood of it becoming a real possibility is so very very slim.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
Yeah, once the season starts and more things start happening we'll be okay
but the situation we’re in has no room for creativity, we either sign Oswalt/trade for Floyd or we don’t, there’s no real wiggle room.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 10, 2012 6:30 PM EST up reply actions
I know it's late
but I still feel pretty confident we’re going to have one of the two in our rotation this year. If it’s Oswalt, we’ll probably know by the end of Monday, and if it’s Floyd, it probably won’t be until midway through spring training. I am eternally the optimist- but my optimism doesn’t generally go beyond practicality.
If we can get one of them, especially Floyd, I'd feel a lot better about the team.
Call me pessimistic, but I’m unsure about a career NL pitcher with a sore back.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 10, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
It is simply unforgivable
to get zero pitchers that anyone would bet money on this offseason. Especially when you screw around with C, SS and RF and stock up the bullpen.
Everything Must Go.
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