everyone is saying they'll go over, but I don't get it. The luxury tax is 178 million, Cots has the Sox at 152 million. They have 26 million left. For Ortiz's arbitration the Sox went with 12 million and Ortiz went with 16 million. The Sox are probably going to win that. That will put them at 164 million, still enough for a pitcher. My guess is that they are waiting until the Ortiz arbitration is finalized so they know they won't go over the cap and will still get Oswalt. I think this is why the Sox have waited to get a pitcher. They have a 6 million dollar offer to Oswalt right now, but I think they'll increase it to 10 million and get him after the Ortiz arbitration.