What might have been: A revisionist look to the 2009-2010 offseason.
Having faced their most disappointing season since 2006 by being bounced by the Angels in the first round of the 2009 playoffs, the Red Sox faced a few issues as they got ready for their next season. The broken corpse of Mike Lowell would need to be replaced at the hot corner, the pitching void left by Curt Schilling would need to be filled by somebody more talented than the combination of John Smoltz and Brad Penny, and a replacement for free agent left fielder Jason Bay would need to be found.
When Jason Bay refused Boston's two year deal, General Manager Theo Epstein thought long and hard about sacrificing that position. If he could make a move for John Lackey, then his pitching staff would be good enough to survive the lack of a powerful left fielder. He could sign a mediocre player, someone like Mike Cameron would get the fans excited. However, when he logged on to a Boston Sports blog, Over The Monster, he noticed a very persuasive poster, who presented an argument he could not ignore. Lackey's falling strikeout rates and decrease in his performance would spell disaster for whichever team signed him as a free agent. If the Sox were going to add wins, it should be from the other big-name Free Agent, Matt Holliday. Besides, one canadian commenter added, John Lackey was a total tool, he wasn't a guy we wanted on the Red Sox at all.
Instead, Theo decided to upgrade his pitching staff another way, working out an astounding trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks. There had been rumblings that a trade would go down between the Tigers and the Diamondbacks, but Theo swooped in, sending pitching prospects Felix Doubront, Drake Britton, and first base prospect Lars Anderson to Arizona for pitcher Max Scherzer.
Having upgraded the pitching staff without spending money, Theo turned to the question of the left side of his team. There was no way to avoid it, Matt Holliday was going to get paid, and get paid a lot of money, but Theo was able to steal Holliday away from the Cardinals for seven years and 130 million dollars. Finally, on January fifth, Theo signed the other big part of his offensive and defensive upgrades, inking Adrian Beltre to a one year, ten million dollar contract with a five million dollar player option. Beltre, coming off a disappointing year with the Mariners, would be allowed one year to try and bounce back, if he did he would be able to walk, or he could stay a second year with the Red Sox for five million.
WIth his upgraded pitching staff, bolstered by a breakout year from Clay Buchholz, and a dynamite offense spurred on by performances from Beltre, Holliday, and a healthy Jacoby Ellsbury, the Red Sox stormed through the season, winning the American League Wild Card before winning a hard-fought battle with the Rangers in five games, then trouncing the Yankees in six before stomping on an all-pitch, no bat Giants team that stumbled into the playoffs. Jonathan Papelbon recorded the last out of the World Series in front of an ecstatic crowd, winning the first World Series in front of a Fenway crowd in 92 years, and Boston's third crown in seven years.
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Lackey’s falling strikeout rates and decrease in his performance would spell disaster for whichever team signed him as a free agent.
I dislike having Lackey on the roster right now as much as everyone, however, if you were to look at these numbers:
K/9,BB/9
7.19, 2.09
7.16, 2.20
7.09, 2.40
What would have been your guess for the next set of numbers?
Probably 7.02, 2.60 about, right?
6.53, 3.01.
That’s not a decline, that’s off the cliff. I don’t believe what happened to Lackey has anything remotely to do with the small trend in stats in the three years leading up to free agency, it just happens to correlate to it. He had succeeded with worse peripherals in the past but wasn’t able to since he got here. There might be something wrong with him, but I don’t think you can point to a minute change in peripherals that isn’t much more significant than noise as an obvious disaster waiting to happen.
We needed pitching and he was a very good pitcher with not a whole lot to worry about. The process and action were both appropriate, it sucks that the results haven’t turned out.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
I just posted what little I remember of the arguments against Lackey that winter.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
It's fine
I’ve just been agreeing with you too much this off season and wanted to mix it up.
I liked the Lackey signing at the time and think with the information we common folk had access to that the process wasn’t flawed. I know some people like to jump on Theo for that signing but I can’t get beside them on that. Crawford on the other hand…
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
If we had signed Holliday to that contract
which I believe could have been done, then we’d have roughly 2 million more to spend this year, not including the money we save by not signing John Lackey.
Also, since Holliday is experienced in left field and a pretty good defender, I think he probably could have avoided the Knee of Death, he definitely would have played more than Cameron.
Finally, Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Scherzer/Bard looks a hell of a lot better than Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Bard/TPM.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
Oh, one other factor in the Holliday vs Crawford debate
If we have Holliday, Ellsbury stays in center and doesn’t get kneed in the ribs. If Ellsbury doesn’t get kneed in the ribs, he doesn’t have a shitty 2010. If he doesn’t have a shitty 2010, the fans and media don’t get on his case. If the fans and media don’t get on his case, we might have signed him to a Pedroia-style extension last offseason.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
Boras says
“You Dream General”

I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
He should've put "A declining Whiff%" instead...
Go and check it ;)
Twitter | "Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester" - Dave Cameron 12/29/2005
Here's a piece written by Matthew Carruth on FanGraphs that resumes it
Second comes with Lackey’s pitch results. More of his pitches have been resulting in balls lately and dropping rates in finding the strike zone and in starting hitters off with a strike portend a rise in the amount of walks that he allows, long his strong suit. More worrisome to me is this: 10.2%, 9.7%, 8.8%, 8.5%, 8.3%. Those are Lackey’s swinging strike rates from 2005 to 2009 in chronological order. That is a downward trend and not a subtle one either. In other words, projecting Lackey, I’d expect slightly more walks and considerably fewer strikeouts.
So OBVIOUS dammit!
Twitter | "Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester" - Dave Cameron 12/29/2005
One thing you've left out...
… that being the cataclysmic detonation of pure awesomeness which resulted from Beltre colliding with Holliday early in the season. The massive concussion which resulted from the irresistible force (Beltre’s knee) meeting the immovable object (Holliday’s not being Carl Crawfordness) knocked everyone in the immediate vicinity from their feet. Kaufmann Stadium was later shut down for a month to shore up structural damage resulting from the injury – resulting in a “slight to moderate” negative impact on home game attendance. More importantly, opposing teams forfeited their games against the Sox for upwards of five weeks -terrified to see the look in the eyes of wives, girlfriends and children when they were measured against the majesty of what Peter Gammons referred to as an “Unstoppable Juggernaut of Baseball Goodness,” later allowing that he really meant it this time.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 3, 2012 7:31 PM EST reply actions
Well, I just guessed that since Holliday is a smart LFer
he would know to stay the fuck out of Adrian’s way.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
think you're overlooking that this scenario would almost certainly have no Adrian Gonzalez
Since the prospects it would have realistically taken to trade for Scherzer would be the same (premium) ones later used to trade for Gonzalez.
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
At least more valuable than Rizzo
And Britton was coming off the year he was being compared to Lester.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
Eh, he had just finished putting up a sub .800 OPS in his first time in Pawtucket
BA had knocked him down to 4th, and Sickels had him 8th (with Rizzo at 7th actually).
After the 2010 season BA had Rizzo 3rd and Lars wasn’t even a factor at that point.
by South Coast Ghost on Feb 4, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Excellent time to move him then.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
If I'm honest, I'd trade a year of Adrian for a World Series and no Crawford or Lackey
If we can’t get him in the offseason as a FA, we still have Youkilis and Rizzo, and we probably sign Beltre.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
I watched the 2007 WS Game 4 recently
And there was a long conversation about how the Sox were guaranteed a long run of success over the next few years because of our young, exceptional core. Shortly after, sure to unbelievable mismanagement by the FO, it would all go to hell, leading to our upcoming nadir.
Funny to think of what might have been with basic competence.
Everything Must Go.
by Sean O on Feb 4, 2012 9:31 PM EST via Android app reply actions
What core? The Lester/Pedroia/Papelbon one?
Cuz that did lead to some success.
By the way, the Canadian commenter mentioned........
……….was me!!
Damn, was I pissed at that signing.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
More pissed than I was about the Crawford signing, and that's saying a bit.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.

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