In general, a pitcher makes his living with his fastball. Without a Major League fastball, a pitcher needs to either a) throw a knuckle ball or b) find another line of work. However, no pitcher can survive throwing nothing but fastballs. Even Daniel Bard, who throws somewhere in the range of a million light years per second, needs a secondary pitch. Pitchers need to disrupt the hitter’s timing and keep him from sitting on that blazing fastball.
To do this, pitchers have created a plethora of strange and wonderful offerings- the curveball, the slider, the change up, the knuckle curve, the circle change, the slurve, the screwball, the eephus, the gyro-ball, the split finger, and should all else fail, the spit ball. All of these pitches are as unique as snowflakes, but they have one thing in common. These pitches all exist to make hitter’s swing wildly as the ball dips, dives, or hangs just out of reach.
2009-2011 Best Off-Speed Pitch Data
|
% Thrown |
Velocity |
Speed Diff |
wValue |
wValue/C |
X-Dif |
Z-Dif |
Whiff Rate |
Daniel Bard's Slider |
20.90% |
84.1 |
13.60 |
15.60 |
2.40 |
5.47 |
-2.07 |
17.10% |
Melancon's Curve |
26.60% |
83 |
9.80 |
10.20 |
2.28 |
-3.50 |
-3.10 |
17.90% |
Alfredo Aceves Change |
12.90% |
83.4 |
7.90 |
9.90 |
2.40 |
0.60 |
-1.40 |
15.00% |
Andrew Bailey's Curve |
13.90% |
85.4 |
8.50 |
5.80 |
1.56 |
0.20 |
0.30 |
12.00% |
Clay Buchholz's Change |
19.60% |
81.1 |
12.30 |
4.30 |
0.38 |
3.70 |
2.47 |
22.70% |
Lester's Curve |
13.70% |
77 |
15.70 |
4.20 |
0.31 |
-0.60 |
-0.10 |
12.50% |
Beckett's Curve |
20.60% |
77.1 |
16.70 |
0.90 |
0.05 |
1.90 |
-1.00 |
11.70% |
If you like your beer cold, your television loud and your off speed pitches SLOOOW, you might like Josh Beckett’s curve, which is a full 16.70 mph slower than his average fast ball. Is Whiff rate important to you? I’ve got a Buchholz change up over here that misses 22% of the bats that swing at it. But you? You look to me like a guy that needs to really use his off-speed stuff. You might want to think about Mark Melancon’s curve ball. You throw that thing 25-26% of time, no worries. If value is your thing, I got a Daniel Bard slider and an Alfredo Aceves change up that will give save 2.40 runs per 100 pitches thrown. You won’t find better value than that.
Yes,
My OTM colleagues all had different takes on this one. Marc Normandin is a whiff rate guy and he likes Buchholz’s change up. Brendan O’Toole picked Josh Beckett’s change up, citing its long track record of nastiness. That track record includes two seasons where his curve was worth 11+ runs above average, so Brendan certainly has a point. Ben Buchanan went with Daniel Bard’s slider, the pitch that has been the most effective over the past three years.
I am also going to stick with my pick from last year and go with Buchholz’s change up. I still support what I said back then –
"Change ups typically rely so much on the speed difference, but Buchholz’s has that
Even after a season where Buchholz did not pitch after June, his change up is easy to remember. It has splitter-like drop and an excellent speed differential from his fast ball, it makes more people swing and miss than any other pitch here, including Bard’s crazy breaking slider. But hey, that’s just me. You need to find the right off-speed pitch for you.