The Red Sox, Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson, And Not Signing Either
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 10:01 AM EST
in Analysis
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PrintIt's Christmas morning, and you wanted Santa Claus to bring you an Xbox 360. You were very specific about this Xbox 360, and required the one with the 250 gigabyte hard drive. You don't know why you would actually ever need 250 GB for a system with half-gig downloadable games and save data that takes up a few hundred kilobytes, but, I mean, look at it! It's the most expensive one! It does more!
You shuffle over to the Xbox-shaped package, and tear the wrapping paper off while pretending to be casual about it. It's an Xbox 360! Just like you asked for. Turning over the box, you realize that this particular Xbox 360 has a much smaller hard drive. That's not 250 GB at all! How are you going to be able to play all of the new and exciting games that come out for this gaming system without all that extra hard drive space?
Well, the weird thing about an Xbox 360, regardless of hard drive space, is that it still plays Xbox 360 games and software. Maybe it doesn't provide the same amount of security in terms of having space, but hey, it still knows how to spin a disc and entertain you every few days.
Roy Oswalt is a 250 GB Xbox 360, and Vicente Padilla is your more basic model. They can both get the job done for Boston, though, even if one is much fancier and more expensive (and likely cooler, too).
"Need" and "want" are not the same thing. When you need something, it implies that whatever goal or aspiration you have will not be reached without that item. When you want something, though, it's usually more in the terms of a luxury item. You aren't going to live or die based on whether or not the item is in your possession, even if you might feel that way while you're angry at Santa for ruining Christmas.
The Red Sox sure would love to have Roy Oswalt or Edwin Jackson. And hey, let's be honest, so would all of us, including this author. But the Sox are also satisfied staying put and seeing what they have in Padilla, Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Alfredo Aceves, and others during the spring. Maybe it turns out that one of them is feeling healthy and has their stuff together. Maybe none of them do, and, seeing who is and is not making the regular season roster, Boston uses the flexibility in their budget leftover from the Marco Scutaro trade to finally acquire Gavin Floyd, or Wandy Rodriguez, or some other starting pitcher who is on the trade block.
The Red Sox aren't coming off of a 2011 season in which their rotation was excellent. John Lackey, who was third on the team in innings, had a 66 ERA+ that qualifies as one of the worst ever in Red Sox history. Tim Wakefield was next-in-line in innings pitched, and he wasn't much better, as his ERA was 5.12, 17 percent worse than your average hurler. Wakefield accounted for -1.2 WAR: a replacement level pitcher, one who would have contributed the baseball definition of nothing, might have put the Red Sox in the playoffs last year if he had been in place of Wakefield, and that's even with Lackey on board.
Those two aren't all, either. The Run Average of Red Sox starting pitchers not named Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, or Clay Buchholz was 6.38 (ERA 5.66). Over six runs per game were allowed, as a unit, by Lackey, Wakefield, Andrew Miller, Kyle Weiland, Erik Bedard, and Daisuke Matsuzaka. That group accounted for just under 480 innings, more than half of Boston's total output from their starters. Between Lester, Beckett, and the bullpen, Boston was able to minimize the damage for the most part and finish with a league-average ERA as a team, but it could have been -- and should have been -- much better.
Padilla and Cook are no Oswalt and Jackson, but they are also not Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield, or Kyle Weiland. Nor do they have the tattered elbows of John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Wanting Oswalt or Jackson is fine -- and I want Oswalt or Jackson as much as you do -- but all the Red Sox need is to not have any of the disasters from last year in the rotation. And, given the personnel they have signed, that shouldn't be a difficult task.
If it is difficult? That's what the leftover financial flexibility is there to fix, as Ben Cherington has tried to remind us over and over again this off-season. Rosters evolve. The devolve, too, as 2011 reminds us -- the Opening Day roster might not be the one that wins for you, or the one you finish the season with.
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I'm pretty sure
We didn’t think Miller, Wake and Weiland would be Miller, Wake and Weiland. We had higher hopes for them, like we have with this new crop, and they didn’t pan out.
It’s nice to say that they can’t be worse, but can we still take that for granted? These are all pitchers of a similar tier, ones that are another bad season or injury away from being minor league camp invitations. Cook is very much like the others, 6+ ERA this year, 5+ the year before, how is he any different? Padilla has been as durable as Bedard lately and the last time he pitched in the AL he posted a couple FIPs upwards of 5. Bard we have no idea how he will turn out, but we know he’s not going to pitch a full share’s worth, Beckett and Buchholz are inconsistent and history suggests that one of them or Lester will face injury at some point this year. In June when say we’re looking at Lester Buchholz Bard Silva and Wilson in the rotation, how are things then? When the words “Dice-K will be our savior” starting getting tossed around, is that a sign that things are going to be OK?
I really just cannot endorse a plan that essentially says “we got terrible pitching from over half our starting innings last year, let’s find a lot of the same kind of guys and expect different results.” The “plan” is just ASKING for similar bad results.
We shouldn’t just want another stabilizing force in the rotation, we need that.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Who had high hopes for those three?
Weiland came out of nowhere in 2011. Wakefield was terrible in 2010, too. The best part about Andrew Miller was that it meant no more Dustin Richardson.
I definitely think Boston could use a more stabilizing force in the rotation, as you put it, but I don’t think they absolutely need it. If Padilla is even tolerable, he’s an upgrade over last year. The bar is set very, very low to upgrade over last year. And as mentioned in the post, if those guys don’t work out, they will still have the flexibility in the budget to make a move for someone like Floyd, who can be that kind of force.
I’m not saying they won’t ever need another starter in 2012, just that they don’t necessarily need him today. And to remember just how awful 2011 really was for their starters when thinking about guys like Padilla.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
Not high, higher.
I remember the talks here that the group we had could provide league average pitching at worst and it did not materialize. Padilla can be tolerable, but he has to pitch, he’s averaged 52ish innings the last two seasons. The bar is very low, and for the sake of a limbo metaphor, we’ve hired guys who are just as tall as last year’s clowns to compete and they were too tall to limbo. /limbo speak
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Chances are...
If the guys we have aren’t going to work out I’m sure Ben will make a move to get a quality starter. At least Padilla/Cook/ Silva aren’t going to cost much. I think we are better off leaving Aceves in the pen where he was great last year. As a whole we probably need 2-3 quality starters to add. I am not putting much stock in Bard as a starter this year, I’m not sure if he can handle 150 innings let alone 200+, I was planning on him as a future closer after Pap left.
We have good young offensive players in our system that could be valuable to other teams. Lars Anderson for instance (who doesn’t seem to have a place on the big league club) could be good trade bait. Also we could possibly move Youk since he is aging and in the last year of his contract. The only problem is we don’t have much pitching to offer in our farm system. but im sure teams out of the race by the break will be willing to part with some guys. Is Matt Cain of SF a possibility, or try to get King Felix (that would be Christmas huh?)
And is anyone concerned about our right field situation? Ryan S, Aviles, and who We could try to get Adam Jones form Baltimore. I heard he was on the block.
by soxfan4ever34 on Feb 2, 2012 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Marc is dead on. Besides, there's no certainty that Oswalt/Jackson will be what they have been, either.
Remember how good Lackey was before coming to Boston? Once here he was average while adjusting to his new team and ballpark, then injured. What if that happens to Oswalt/Jackson?
The odds are that wouldn’t have happened to Lackey and won’t happen to Oswalt/Jackson, but the odds are also that two out of Bard/Aceves/Cook/Silva/Padilla will be better than Miller/Weiland/Wakefield/Doubront/Bedard. That’s not even including the possibility that another year’s development will show improvement in Miller or Doubront (or Tazawa).
Two out of those eight should be adequate until Dice-K returns to give us yet another option.
No, no, I don't.
Lackey was how good? I remember him in decline, which is why so many of us absolutely hated that signing when we made it.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Even with that
He was much better prior — and got worse much faster — than anyone expected, even the most pessimistic of us.
I wish my old blog wasn’t lost to the ether, so I could cite my reactions to it.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well, in context.
or 
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
He'll be 49 and pitching in Coors.
Seriously… smoke and mirrors, and pitching in Coors Field? I know they want him to mentor the younger guys, but for the love of God… that’s a mean thing to do to the old man.
(And I love that he’s still pitching at that age too…)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I honestly have no problem with them not getting Jackson or Oswelt, but Ben better not be satisfied with two holes in the starting rotation. I rather see Wilson and Dubront battle for the last spot then any of these pickups, there not Freddy Garcia-ish. uThe sox need to build up there pitchers in the farm system! They have nothing there. When none of these guys pan out they’ll be looking to trade, and by then they’ll have to pay even more because teams will know how desperate they are.
So mean
Funny, but mean.
We can start calling him Commodore 46.
Everything Must Go.
by Sean O on Feb 2, 2012 12:15 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Picture didn't load for me...
Who was that?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
They should have tried out Garland and Webb in spring training if they were trying to get lucky or at leat to second base.
Webb's arm is likely toast
There is no more trying with him. Garland is recovering from shoulder surgery.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
x
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Maybe if I hadn't repeatedly mentioned...
That I’d like to have one of Oswalt or Jackson as well. Or that they might have to make a trade later if this doesn’t work.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
I have a non-Red Sox-related headache which is making me cranky
so I’m not going to respond right now, as it would not come out the right way, and I appreciate greatly the hard work you put in here and value your perspective.
But I need to be on the record as saying that I strongly disagree with the attitude of this post.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Wait a minute
We all felt pretty good about the starting pitchng going into 2011, right? Many were at least cautiously optimistic about a turnaroun from Lackey and Dice-K. Now, as we look to kick off 2012, and have no Dice-K and Lackey, and no replacements that inspire any real hopes of improvement (including Bard), we are supposed to be optimistic? I don’t buy it.
I think they NEED another decent veteran starter to have a real shot at the post-season in 2012. I see at boston.com the Sox are offering Jackson a lowball $5-6mil. one year deal. If Cherington get this done, great, but I don’t see it. This is not 2010 when the Sox were the only contending team with a need at 3B; many contending teams need ptiching, and I’m not even sure the Sox are the most attractive spot among contenders.
"many contending teams need pitching"
I’m not necessarily saying you are wrong – but which?
Tigers – Set (Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Turner, Porcello)
Yankees – Set (Kuroda, Nova, Pineda, CC, Hughes, Garcia)
Rangers – Set (Feliz, Lewis, Ogando, Harrison, Feldman)
Angels – Set (Wilson, Santana, Haren, Weaver, Williams)
Rays – Set (Hellickson, Davis, Price, Shields, Moore)
Phillies – Set (Halladay, Lee, Blanton, Worley, Hamels, Kendrick)
Braves – Set (Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Delgado)
Reds – Set (Cueto, Bailey, Leake, Latos, Arroyo)
Giants – Set (Lincecum, Bumgarner, Cain, Vogelsong, Zito)
D-Backs – Set (Hudson, Collmenter, Cahill, Bauer, Kennedy, Saunders)
Cards – Set (wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, Westbrook, Lohse, McClellan)
Many teams with 5/6 options will see throwing 10 million at a guy with back problems as unnecessary, in fact even fiscally dumb.
Whoops
Left Darvsih and Holland off of the Rangers list and Niemann off of the Rays.
Basically I can see a spot on Detroit and maybe the Reds, but Roy’s already turned down Detroit.
Detroit could probably use one of them
unless they’re set on Turner/Oliver at #5.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
Except the rumor has both the Rangers and Cardinals looking at making room for him.
So, with Jackson gone for $8-$12 million to the Nationals (who weren’t on your list above, but could contend in the NL East, as they build that team), what is Oswalt going to get at this point?
And couldn’t another team out there, like the Mariners, still take a swing at him?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Though I think Roy pitched to the Reds, and they turned him down...
… for whatever that’s worth.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
With the latest news on Jackson's one year deal...
… are you still sure they’re painted in to a corner? Starting to look like the Sox have painted themselves into a corner where we’re either going to pay through the nose for someone like Floyd, or go into the season with what we’ve got today.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well if they wanted to pitch for a contender
Can’t see the Nationals vaulting the Phillies and Braves this year
The Marlins should be better too.
Although, the Nationals do have a rotation, and the Braves collapse was only overshadowed by our own last year.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I wonder if Cherington isn't pulling a snowjob here...
…leaking that we’re not interested, that Bobby V doesn’t put a SP at the top of his wish list, etc. all to lower the pitchers’ demands. Remember how it looked like we were going to get Texeira? how we likely overpaid for Crawford when not bidding against any other serious suitors? Maybe Ben doesn’t want to be burned again like we were under Theo.
Don't sign either
2012 is a lost cause. Stay under the tax, shed the dead wood, try again next year.
Everything Must Go.
by Sean O on Feb 2, 2012 12:13 PM EST via Android app reply actions
Already going to be over the tax.
We’d probably have to trade Youk’s contract to get back under.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Not sure how it works
I mean, would it be a straight half that comes out of the tax number, or half a year factored out of his AAV? The first would remove a lot more payroll than the later scenario. But depending on the two arbitration cases, half of Youkilis might not be enough, I think all of Youkilis might be.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Well, if we give Theo John Lackey
that goes a long way towards getting us under the threshhold.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 3, 2012 10:49 AM EST up reply actions
I think getting below the tax
Should be top priority. Cannot believe we didn’t trade Beckett this postseason.
Everything Must Go.
by Sean O on Feb 2, 2012 12:46 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Beckett's got a Lackey-style contract and is inconsistent
It’d probably be easier to move Youkilis.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
Also, if we're using gaming comparisons here
Isn’t Padilla more like the original xbox360 that gave you the red ring of doom after 8 innings err uses?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Ha ha ha!
So glad I never had one of those…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Neither have I
The only time one of my xboxes went wrong was when my cat knocked it off the table.
I actually have three of them sitting in my basement because my grandparents can’t remember anything and have bought me one for my birthday the last three years in a row.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 3, 2012 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Insurance Xboxs!
Anything after the original model doesn’t red ring, anyway. I waited until the Jasper model was out, and made sure to find a Jasper used for the lady friend when she wanted a 360.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 3, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I got my first one at Costco, I have no idea what sort of "model" it is.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
So you can have enough pitching? Bullocks.
To compete in the AL this year, the Sox would need to pick up a good starting pitcher now, and another at the trading deadline to compensate for inevitable injuries. That’s speaking conservatively.
Normally I allow myself to be calmed by the rational voices I read on the Sox (Speier, Britton, or here, Normandin), but this time I think you’re all deluded. These arguments are incomprehensible to me. A few extra million for a one year deal? No? I do not understand. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.
by steel sox on Feb 2, 2012 12:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
I haven't said they shouldn't sign those guys
Just that it isn’t the end of the world if they don’t do that right now.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
Well I absolutely agree with you
that the Red Sox failing to compete this year wouldn’t mean the end of the world.
Thank you!
I think I’ve got a reputation around here for being, as Sean O put it, a “calming presence.” I’m always the glass half full kind of guy. I really thought we were going to make the playoffs right up until Papelbon blew the save, and the Rays rallied against the Yankees.
I can’t quite figure out how we look at the “depth” we thought we had in 2011, how that actually worked out, and try to rationalize having less than that this year with the idea that we could have simply replaced those guys with “replacement level” players and made the playoffs. Lackey was unbelievably bad… yet, he won half of his games.
Last year, we had guys that should have been much better than replacement level… and they were horrible. This year, we have guys we hope can be as good as replacement level. That does not make a championship team, in my opinion. I could be wrong… I hope I’m wrong.
But at this point, with Jackson gone to the Nationals for well more than we were offering him, I think it’s a matter of time before there are no options left, but playing with what we’ve got.
BLAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Lannon
MLBTradeRumors.com has the Nationals willing to trade him so they can get Oswalt/Jackson. He’s $5 million this year, and has a year of eligibility left. Averages 180 innings with an ERA under 4.
simul justus et peccator
Ugly peripherals
Decent GB% though, for a couple million more I feel we could probably get someone a lot more trustworthy.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
IMO
he’s kind of like an older version of Dustin Moseley. I’m not a fan of his BB% in a transition to the East.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
There is a Lannan piece incoming later this afternoon
So you can all debate the relative merits of him.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Passable for a #5 SP, lefty, 1.46 WHIP last year though, $5M one-year contract.
Plus he’d cost us a player in trade.
Depending on which player... Doubront? Anderson?
Rather have Lannan or Padilla?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I wonder if Padilla's legal troubles might push them into signing another pitcher.
He was a question mark to begin with, but now with these legal troubles, they clearly need to cover their asses in case the legal troubles aren’t cleared up.
That's true.
But all of the pitchers they have signed have been on minor league deals, so they have to be relying on a few of them.
At this point, one of them or Aceves will be our #5.
Bard currently projects to the #4.
If Padilla isn’t the top of that list, who is?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Isn't Padilla the only one of them without an opt-out?
Kind of makes you assume he is the one they definitely want to keep around, if no one else.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
So, back to Wolf's comment...
… perhaps Padilla is the guy we’ve got penciled in at the #5 right now?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
And back to my comment.
If he’s the only one without an opt-out clause, they seem to think he is the most reliable, so if his legal troubles can’t be cleared by ST, they may have to acquire a pitcher to cover their asses, just in case.
His legal troubles sound like
“Come up with $4,200 then you can leave”, but I say this only because the arrest was revoked.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Feb 2, 2012 3:21 PM EST up reply actions
I know.
But without knowing how the Nicaraugan Legal System works, right now it sounds like “Come up with $4,200 then can leave,” but that may just be the first step.
Lovely.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Also, when Michael Lewis writes the book Failball
the art of being incompetent with an unfair advantage
I think Timothy Olyphant should get to play Ben Cherington.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
But... I like Timothy Olyphant.
Who plays Omar Minaya and Jim Hendry?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 3, 2012 10:52 AM EST up reply actions
Obviously both will be played by Jonah Hill.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
I'm assuming...
… that he negotiates with free agents much like Seth Bullock negotiates will Al Swearengen? It would explain many, many things.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 3, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
Is the picture broken for everyone?
I swear it worked before SBN decided to become unreliable last night.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Not working for me...
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
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