What do YOU think will be the Red Sox record in 2012?

No pitching, tough division, no chance.

While I expect some regression from some of our players, I also expect some players to improve. I’m not sure about Bard, but I think that at least one of the Rotationettes will actually pan out. Probably Cook. I actually think Cook will do well at Fenway if he’s healthy. The bullpen actually looks decent and I expect that Ross will be an upgrade in RF.

I’m not saying I’m happy with the team as it’s currently constructed and I’d prefer them to sign another starter and shift Bard back to the pen, but I do think that this team as constructed can actually win more games than last year’s squad did.

Starting with backup scrubs in the 4th/5th positions of the rotation does not bode well.

depending on what breaks right

A big chunk of the loss will be Ellsbury, who I think will have a good year, but not a great one. Pedey’s slight decrease is offset by Carl’s slight increase, we lose a lot of value at short stop when Youk suffers another injury and the platoon is broken, separately we learn that Aviles and Punto are not capable of holding down jobs.

I think we will see no less than 10 starting pitchers rotate their way onto the mound. After one of the top three get injured, as tends to happen frequently with us, three of the rotationettes at a time just doesn’t work out.

Plus you have to factor in an increase in competition, I don’t see us going 11-3 against the Angels and Tigers again this year.

So about 90 wins, 3rd place in the East, outside the playoffs no matter if there are 1 or 2 WC’s, a team from the West I think will end up being the primary wildcard.

we’ll be a mediocre team.

That’s…baseless…

Anywho…as currently put together, I predict 87 wins. With uncertainty in my mind for Beckett and Buchholz, no faith in the Great Bard Experiment, I just don’t see it. I realize the potential upsides…but I can’t in my right mind predict more.

We are all spit-balling which is alot of fun. I think so far what I am seeing – with the Sox currently holding their money (for the most part in the off season) and floating near the cap that they want some wiggle room at the trade deadline if they are in contention. At this point both the low predictions and the high predictions have merit….I think Sean’s point is that with only 3 legit starters if one or more struggles the Sox could be disappointing. I think Bosox’s point looks at the starters as being productive and having some decent bounce back seasons from some position players. For me, the scare factor is the lack of depth with the starting pitching – both in the bigs and AAA.

The offense basically matches its production from last year; probably some regression to the mean for some players, but by and large they go through several stretches of truly epic run-scoring, interspersed with two or three dry spells when they either get complacent or worn out or whatever. The offense last year was worth 39.2 WAR (according to Fangraphs), and I expect they will likely fall in the 38 to 41 range again, assuming they are at least no less healthy than the last few years.
Oddly enough, the Red Sox pitching last year accounted for 20.3 WAR, putting them at 7th in the majors,despite the cavalcade of crap it seemed to be at times, and despite a FIP of 4.05 and xFIP of 4.13, both among the worst in the league. There should be a good chance to improve on that performance with just a run of good health this year, so since I lean optimistic, I’m going to say the pitching staff manages to improve maybe to about 24 or 24.5 WAR, between a healthy trio of good pitchers and some effective, if pedestrian, performances from Bard and whomever.
Of course, realistically, that probably means that 96 wins is the ceiling for this team right now, and 93 or 94 is probably more likely. (Really, that’s about what the total from last year would have looked like if they had just sucked instead of totally crapping the bed at the two ends of the season). The chances of that being enough to win the division is pretty slim, but I would say they have a solid shot at the wild card.

Just gotta see if they can manage to be about 3% or 4% better on the whole than last year.

where x = the number of wins needed for a Wild Card spot. Sorry if that’s too pessimistic for some of you, but the Red Sox have long taught me to temper my preseason expectations.

a 44% chance to win the division, highest in the division, and a 64% chance at playoffs. He has us with 93 wins, and the Yankees at 92 and the Rays at 84. Here

the rest is irrelevant

They are 4+ games out & the starting pitching is floundering but staying on the mound because the offense keeps the team in the game….do you even bother being a buyer?

What if you could move a few pieces and strenghten the team for 2013 & 2014? (but, most likely out of contention in 2012)

I know that the idea is get to the post season and anything can happen..but, if you bow out in the first round and are buyers is that smart?

I hope the decision is made based upon overall strengthening of the team…I dunno but I know right now that the Sox need more SP. I suppose, that if the big 3 are healthy and the bullpen is tight then we are buyers regardless…

then after 100 years the Redsox close up shop, but all seriousness folks. I see it as being a 90-95 win team.I see Youk being healthy and playing in 145-150 games. You know what I wont see? JD drew taking another 3rd strike. As much as I am going to miss Tek and Wake. Is the same amount I won’t miss seeing all that effort and emotion from JD. You know that fire he always used to roll grounders to the infield. Please reassign number 7 soon so the healing can start. Can we Sign Trot Nixon for a day so he could retire a sox and we can all have a good feeling with #7 involved