FanPost

What do YOU think will be the Red Sox record in 2012?

We all have different opinions. I think people are being too pessimistic. This is what I think will happen to the Red Sox in 2012: Jacoby Ellsbury does not completely replicate his 2011 season, but he still puts up 5 WAR, he hits 20 homers with a .300/.360/.500 line. Dustin Pedroia is a beast and puts up a 7 WAR season and hits .315. David Ortiz regresses, he had a big season in 2011, and he still might be the best DH in baseball, but he only puts up 3 WAR, still not too shabby, and he also hits 30 homers again, but he hits .270 with a .370 OBP. Adrian Gonzalez's average regresses to a .310 hitter, but he hits 45 homers. I do think this is reasonable as using that cool tool from katron.org Gonzalez's 2010 would have 50 homers at Fenway. Gonzalez is an MVP candidate and puts up 7 WAR. Kevin Youkilis comes back and hits .270, but has a .400 OBP. He ends the season with 4.5 WAR. And here comes the controversey, Carl Crawford rebounds, he puts up 13 UZR and hits .280/.340/.450. He has 4 WAR. Jarrod Saltalamacchia gets inured and only plays for 200 PAs. He puts up 0.5 WAR in those PAs, and people think Kelly Shoppach will start, but no, the youngster Ryan Lavarnway hits 15 homers in only 300 PAs, he puts up 3 WAR, Kelly Shoppach is left without playing time. The shortstop position is a mess. Aviles and Punto hit .260/.300/.330, they only put up 1 WAR together. Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney platoon to play pretty good defense, and hit much better than the black hole of right field of the 2011 Red Sox. They put up 2.3 WAR together.

Now to the pitching staff: Beckett regresses a lot. He puts up a 3.70 ERA and only has 3.5 WAR. Lester has a very good season. He has a 3.25 ERA, and puts up 4.5 WAR. Clay Buchholz bounces back and pitches 180 innings with a 3.40 ERA. He has 4.2 WAR. Daniel Bard surprises many people and puts up a respectable 3.90 ERA in 160 innings. That's good for 2.0 WAR, Aaron Cook is decent and puts up a 4.35 ERA in 190 innings, he gets 1.7 WAR. Aceves/Padilla pitch 70 innings of 4.40 ERA ball and 0.7 WAR. The bullpen is very good again. They put up 5 WAR. Using Matt Swartz's formula for turning WAR into wins .95*hitterwar+1.36*bullpenwar+1.03*starterwar+42.2, the Red Sox win 100 games, of course they are playing in the AL East, I say that's a five game difference, and they win 95 games and the division. The Rays come in 2nd behind Matt Moore being a stud, but Hellickson significantly regresses because of his lousy SIERA. The Yankees miss out on the playoffs by one game.

So that's mine, what do YOU think will happen to the Sox in 2012?

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