A look at the 2012-2013 offseason
by magicbosox on Feb 15, 2012 3:57 PM EST
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PrintIf you think the front office is making your life rough with their budget this year, next year will be no picnic either. Making some conservative assumptions, next offseason will be as rough as 2011-2012.
For this roster we'll assume: David Ortiz, Bobby Jenks, Dice-K, Cody Ross, Kelly Shoppach, Andrew Miller, Darnell McDonald and Cody Ross are not retained, Kevin Youkilis has his option picked up and becomes the DH and backup 1b/3b, the left side of the infield is taken over by rookies WMB and Iglesias, Bard is the #4 starter, Lackey returns as the #5 starter and the bullpen does not get blown up by injury/ineffectiveness/trade. These are not to be taken as predictions but as the natural flow of things if the front office stands by and does nothing.
Projected team for 2013 using only players under contract:
LF Crawford $20.8 mil
CF Ells $11 mil (projected as arb3)
RF Kalish (min)
1b A-Gon $21.8 mil
2b Pedey $10.25 mil
3b Middlebrooks (min)
SS Jose $2.06 mil
C Salty $4.25 (projected as arb3)
Bench/DH:
DH/1b/3b Youk $12 mil
INF Aviles $3 mil (projected arb2)
INF Punto $1.5 mil
C/DH Lavarnway (min)
OF Sweeney $3 mil (projected arb3)
SP1 Lester $11.63 mil
SP2 Beckett $17 mil
SP3 Clay $5.75
SP4 Bard $3 mil (projected arb2)
SP5 Lackey $15.9 mil
Cl Bailey $5.25 (projected arb2)
SU Melancon $1 mil (projected arb1)
SM Aceves $2.2 mil (projected arb3)
MR Albers $2 mil (projected arb3)
LR Tazawa $800,000 (projected arb1)
LH Morales $1 mil
LH Doubront (min)
This totals $167.8 million without being adjusted for AAV for luxury tax purposes (which by the way is $178 mil for 2013). Also keep in mind the approximate value of benefits/medical/40-man is $11 mil.
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Couple of things
1. Lester’s AAV is about 5.95 which savea about 5.68 million
2. Pedroia’s AAV is about 6.7 mil which saves about 3.5 million
3. Crawford’s AAV is 20.3 which saves about 0.5 million
4. Lackey’s AAV can get down to 13.8 million by using the 2015 option at league min. This saves another 2 million
This adds up to 11.68 million
5. Buchholz AAV is 7.4 million which takes 1.65 million away
leaving
about 10 million in luxury tax space
If Lavarnway is ready to DH/fill in at C then you could look at moving Youk either this season or picking up his option then moving him where he could start at 1B and you can save another 10+ million
so there you’ve got about 30 million to work with
Thanks for the AAVs
But I heard the option on Lackey does not bring the AAV down.
I think it would once it gets exercised
If it can only be exercised in the offseason where it would be required to keep Lackey a Red Sox, you’re right. Even if it could be exercised before, though, I’m not sure they would. At any rate, they’re not likely to pull the trigger now, while he’s in the early stages of rehab.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 15, 2012 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
That sounds right.
But they would have to exercise it prior to the 2012-2013 offseason for it to help the AAV.
So the AAV calculations kick in before the end of the World Series?
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The clause in Lackey's contract
can only be triggered AFTER he misses a full season due to a preexisting elbow condition (which assuming that since this clause exists this is) as a result his AAV doesn’t come down until next offseason
Ah.
This makes perfect sense.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 15, 2012 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
Is it a full year?
I thought it was just “significant time”
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 15, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
It might be...
… that he can’t miss “significant time” until he’s actually not playing in games – the same way we can’t sit him on the 60-day DL until the start of the season (?), at which point he’d still be counted for the CBA this season. Of course: (a) the adjustment BZ was talking about is for next offseason; and (b) we apparently don’t care about the CBT, just the undisclosed internal budget the Sox have.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 15, 2012 11:14 PM EST up reply actions
"Significant time"??
Are you shitting me? You mean as significant as the “significant player” we are getting from the Cubs for Theo? That should be fun to figure out.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Bloggy
I’m not seeing you in the OTM fantasy league yet. I’m just sayin’.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
"To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong." – H. L. Mencken
by Lloyd Christmas on Feb 16, 2012 6:39 AM EST up reply actions
But I signed up!
I think….
Ugh…I’ll go check…..
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
remember, when you click on the link, it shows you having a team
but there’s a little checkbox near the bottom of the screen you have to check to actually join for real. It threw me off at first.
Now you're in
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
"To every complex problem, there is an answer that is simple, easy to understand and wrong." – H. L. Mencken
by Lloyd Christmas on Feb 16, 2012 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
I'm pretty thick sometimes.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Just to clarify
“significant time” is not the language in the contract, it’s the language that Cots got from whatever their source was. Reports are that it is if he misses a season.
OK...thanks.
It seems that word gets my bowels in an uproar.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Now, now...
… are you suggesting that the Red Sox front office is uncromulent in their word usements? That’s unpossible!
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 16, 2012 11:47 AM EST up reply actions
If it does get exercised
Would we be “refunded” some AAV? From my understanding of the Scutaro situation was that his AAV this year was higher because the AAV of his contract changed when the option was exercised and it turned out we had been underpaying the tax number. With Lackey would it be the opposite? His AAV would be lower, which means we would have overpaid relative to the tax the last two years. Anyone understand how that works?
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We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
Was wondering the same thing.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I would be very surprised if they did that
but not completely sure. That would make exercising any club option have a HUGE effect on the CBT
Not necessarily surprising, they do half of it
If they can charge you for tax you didn’t pay, why can’t you get the extra money back that you did pay?
It’s a very strange case, I can’t think of another club option that is such a huge difference from the salary of the previous year. Almost all options step up in value rather than step down and this doesn’t even step down, it plummets.
With such few teams that have actually paid the tax and so few contracts that decline in value with a club option, Lackey’s might be the only case ever like this.
But still, if they can charge you extra tax, you should be able to get a credit for overpaying.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
The way it works is this:
Salaries:
2012 – $16.5MM
2013 – $16.5MM
2014 – $16.5MM
2015 – $00.5MM
Luxury Tax Hits
2012 – $16.5MM
2013 – $11.0MM
2014 – $11.0MM
2015 – $11.0MM
So trading him in that last year makes sense if you’re up against the cap. Like with Scutaro this year, except with more leverage if he’s even halfway decent.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 17, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
No way they refund us.
Plus if they would, this option would have already been picked up. It would save all that money for a few years based on the AAV and we would have a vet for 500,000 in a few years. i don’t think they are completely planning on exercising it.
I'm saying I think they will.
But they won’t do it for a while.
Yeah, seems like a nobrainer
saves Tax money and as bad as Lackey is, you’d take a flier on him for league minimum I have to believe
From what someone posted here
Can’t it only be exercised AFTER a year is missed due to the specific injury? In which case, they haven’t done it because they can’t yet.
I am Sandy's bitch
We Are Because You Were
@WadePSU
I agree with all this
Except even this roster is based on three rookies and Kalish. If even one of these guys doesn’t step up, we have a hole to fill.
SS would be the main concern
but if Aviles proves that he can man it another year he would be an option, same with Sweeny in RF. Those are not ideal options, but options nonetheless.
I don't think Iglesias will be a starter next year. We'll have to pick someone up.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
Or we'll play Crap Cyclone at short again
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 15, 2012 6:49 PM EST up reply actions
Crap Cyclone being Aviles and Punto...
… not to be confused with Carl Crawford, who has the same initials and the same general baseball aesthetic.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 15, 2012 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
Had to do stop for a second
and wonder if Crawford played short for a few games last season.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Neither could I
http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2012/1/12/2702921/re-signed-resigned
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 16, 2012 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
I should resign myself
to my inabilty to proof read late at night. None of my clients should re-sign me if they want work at late hours.
Having said this, I worry how the effect will affect me (confused use intentional).
There was a gif floating around...
… of a guy at a chalkboard (in a Red Sox hat, no less) illustrating the difference. I can never find it though. Damn you, Google! You promised you would keep me from having to know or remember things!
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 17, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
Oh man, I need that gif.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 17, 2012 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
Is this it?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Look in the mirror and ask yourself: "Am I a hater troll?"
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
BLARGH!
I had to watch this right after I ate???
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Avid Red Sox fan :)
by Rick Bentsen on Feb 17, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Things Boston Could Do
One is to trade Youkilis. He has surplus value despite his injuries, so picking up his option and then trading him is a pretty good idea if you can get something in return AND use the money for someone else.
A more minor cost-saving measure could be to do something similar with Salty, playing Lavarnway there instead. A league average catcher at $4MM is pretty valuable, so you should be able to save a little money and get something solid in return for Salty.
DH wouldn’t be as important, since realignment will add 20 or so more interleague games, meaning you can only use your DH in 75% of the season. Using that to rest your guys might make sense and allow you to cut your payroll.
So what would you use this ~$17MM or so towards? Well, it’s a pretty banner crop of FAs.
There’s Josh Hamilton, who fits a need and is, like Youkilis, so valuable when he’s on the field that missing some time here and there ain’t a big deal.
Greinke/Hamels/Cain would make the rotation elite, with Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez, Colby Lewis, Brandon McCarthy, Hiroki Kuroda, and Roy Oswalt (if he only signs a one-year pact) making up an excellent list of more reasonable consolation prizes.
You could also grab a stud CF to play right until Ellsbury leaves (or, of course, use the money to just extend Ellsbury). The CF list is impressive: Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, and B.J. Upton.
Or, if you wanted to stay a little cheaper (and Iglesias isn’t cutting it), you could spend a little less money and still upgrade SS a good bit with Erick Aybar or Stephen Drew.
Point is, IF we have the money, there are some great places to spend it.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 16, 2012 11:06 AM EST reply actions
those numbers add up to 155.19 million, according to my calculator
also, a few of them are a little odd- Iglesias’ number listed there is actually the AAV of his contract (most of his money was a signing bonus, he makes something right around the minimum at this point), Youk’s option is $13 million, and I’m not sure where the $800k for Tazawa came from (his contract is actually up, although he’s obviously under team control for a long time to come).
All those things are small though, except for the total amount. Then if BZ’s numbers are correct (I’m reached capacity for the amount of math I feel like doing right now), and the AAV brings the total down by around $10 million, we’d be right around $145 million. Plenty of space there- assuming all the things that need to go right go right.
This.
$145MM for luxury tax purposes is great (though you have to add a good bit for medical), but it’s likely that 2/4 or 3/4 of Middlebrooks/Kalish/Iglesias/Lavarnway are not ready, in which case you have some holes.
Fortunately, we have an option on Youkilis and another year of Salty. And not only are there the FA options i listed in my above post at SS and RF, but there’s also good depth at catcher, with Napoli, Martin, Iannetta, Montero, and Yadier Molina all currently headed to free agency.
Will be a VERY entertaining offseason next year. And here’s hoping it’s sandwiched by two entertaining regular seasons.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 16, 2012 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
I think the main point
is that yeah, there will be some holes (there always are) but there should/can be much more flexibility next off-season. Article seemed to claim that we’d be in the same fix as this year
I know the luxary tax is a big deal to this FO
But apparently so is some sort of $180 mil-ish budget. I’m saying if they keep Youk and rely on rookies next season, their straight-up payroll will be around 165 before addressing any FA or anything.
The budget is probably higher than 180 mil
remember to factor in all the tax money we have to pay. If the tax goes over 180, our payroll likely goes up.
"I can’t explain what I mean. And even if I could, I’m not sure I’d feel like it."
-JD Salinger.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 16, 2012 12:21 PM EST up reply actions
Right
So if the difference in actual payroll to actual budget is $20-$25 mil next year using the model in the article, then you have to hope the rookies play well or that money will be spread pretty thin.
Yes, but
your math is wrong.
It’s about $155MM if the above roster is correct.
That would leave them with $25MM to spare.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 16, 2012 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
But if you're talking luxury tax...
… then you also have to subtract about $10MM because the AAV is lower than the actual money paid out, due to backloaded contracts.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 16, 2012 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
I'm talking FO budget. Obviously they play around with luxury tax and AAV numbers and all...
but I just can’t think they want to pay more than $180-$185 actual money in payroll.
Right.
But what I’m saying is that $20-$25MM is a good amount of flexibility, and, obviously, WAY more flexibility than we currently have. If RF doesn’t work out, they have FA options (including Swisher and Ichiro!, as I forgot to mention above). If Iglesias isn’t ready (or they decide he never will be), they have FA options, as well as Punto/Aviles). And if somehow Kalish and Iglesias work out, you can never have too much pitching, and that kind of flexibility can easily net them some great starters in a great FA market for SP.
by abbreviatedman on Feb 16, 2012 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
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