2012 Red Sox Community Projections: On Josh Beckett, We Never Learned

Jim Rogash

Evens, odds, and the terrible cycles of Josh Beckett. Lessons we never learned.

How did we not learn? After half a decade, you think we would have figured it out.

Odd-year Beckett is good. 2007 was Cy Young caliber, 2009 was a solid return to form, 2011 was brilliant.

Even-year Beckett is a wreck. 2006 was a tremendous disappointment, 2008 a let-down, 2010 an injury-riddled mess, and 2012...

Well, 2012 was the end. When all the heat and controversies and garbage pitching finally got together and resulted in the end of Josh Beckett in Boston.

Somehow, though, we didn't see it coming. As evidenced here:

Name Wins WHIP ERA K/9 BB/9 IP
Actual 7 1.33 4.65 6.97 2.75 205.33
dmbhaggis 17 1.15 2.24 8.3 2.2 187
donnyhardy 21 1.09 2.38 8 1 212
GerryT 16 1.27 3.36 8 3 200
Brosendin 14 1.21 3.39 7.8 2.7 194
Braden Beaudreau 14 1.09 3.45 8.2 2.53 190
Boston Red Sox 12 1.27 3.47 8.5 2.7 183
Sologub 12 1.16 3.5 8 2.8 180
TheLoneDavid 14 1.27 3.56 8.05 2.78 177.66
Debageldond 14 1.26 3.57 8.2 2.6 181.66
Fromalabama 15 1.21 3.68 8.11 3.67 192.66
bosoxman94 15 1.21 3.69 8.17 2.52 187
drabidea 13 1.2 3.7 8 2.7 195
Thin 15 1.19 3.79 8.2 2.16 180
BigNachos 14 1.29 3.84 7.9 2.9 175
Rogue Nine 14 1.2 3.85 8 2.6 175
T-Money 10 1.31 3.89 8 4 150
flasoxfan 13 1.35 3.93 7.9 2 170
dsharp 12 1.24 4.02 7.9 2.8 161
Justin_Bobo 12 1.61 4.05 8.1 3.5 155
cds7c 11 1.275 4.22 7.8 3 170
bososx13 18 1.21 3.26 8.7 2.8 192
AlohaSox 17 1.21 3.92 8.3 2.6 190
theartolater 16 1.25 3.79 7.4 1.6 180
The Big Fundamental 15 1.23 2.99 8.9 3.4 222
Buccaz 13 1.18 3.69 7.1 2.35 161
slothman 16 1.16 3.37 8.21 2.3 191
robertsstolesecond 17 1.14 3.12 8.8 2.3 193
Sean O 12 1.35 4.75 8.1 2.9 125
lamb 18 1.15 2.9 5.8 3 200
The Duke of Silver 15 1.18 3.46 8.44 2.26 195
camthomas 15 1.18 3.55 8.2 2.8 187
QW 15 1.19 3.52 8.13 2.61 201
MrBill82x 17 1.19 3.27 7.42 1.92 189.66
Steve Boyle 13 1.2 3.61 8.57 2.54 186
The Laser Show 14 1.21 3.7 8 2.3 182
fizrat 16 1.23 3.86 7.9 2.6 184
westcoastredsox 14 1.44 4.04 7.6 2.02 202.33
B_Edelman 18 1.12 2.97 12.1 3.4 213
Chris Sanford 17 1.18 3.66 6.63 2.1 198.33
Jason Zak 18 1.13 3.36 8.3 2.1 203.33
AverageZak 15 1.22 3.56 8.1 2.6 185.33

Not everyone had faith that Beckett would repeat. Some either stayed true to their dislike for the man or showed their belief in the even - odd tradeoff...

But nobody saw this coming. Even giving credit for Beckett's far superior time in Los Angeles, nobody has even two different stats close.

The winner is Sean O, however. Because he's never relented in his disdain for Beckett, actually came in over the top on ERA (thanks to Los Angeles), and if anyone really saw a bad Beckett season coming it was him.

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