Reviewing The Red Sox Top Prospects List
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 3, 2012 1:05 PM EST
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It's a new year, and that means a new top prospect list from you, the Over The Monster population.
Before we get started on voting for the new list, however, let's take a look back at the year that was, and how it went for our last top-20...
...which didn't include Xander Bogaerts or Will Middlebrooks. Oh my!
The possibility that Linares could be a major league ready talent given his age and his domination of the Arizona Fall League helped him to narrowly beat out the aforementioned Mr. Bogaerts. Bogaerts went on to establish himself as the most exciting young prospect in the system by hitting 16 home runs over half a season in Greenville, while Linares played in only 17 games putting up an OPS under .800.
19. Sean Coyle
Often compared to Dustin Pedroia, Coyle seemed a bit more like J.D. Drew in his first season--right down to the injuries. A shoulder strain early in the year and a freak pitch to the mouth in the middle limited Coyle's first professional season both in terms of at bats and results. Aside from a short spell of ineffectiveness following his dental layoff, Coyle was something of a monster providing a surprising show of power...albeit with 110 strikeouts mixed in.
All the rest (in briefer fashion) after the jump.
18. Luis Exposito
Exposito's slow fade continued as his first exposure to Triple-A pitching went poorly. While his name remains on the 40-man for now, it's likely one of the first off should the Sox find themselves in need of a roster spot.
17. Brandon Workman
Remarkably consistent, rarely spectacular, Workman had the kind of season that would be more impressive at a higher level or a younger age.
16. Junichi Tazawa
Tazawa gained strength quickly as he returned from Tommy John Surgery, but he still has the same questions from before his injury.
15. Garin Cecchini
A strong season was cut short when a pitch broke Cecchini's wrist. He'll likely see his first exposure to full-season ball next year, which is one of the two biggest jumps minor leaguers make.
14. Oscar Tejeda
A beneficiary of BABIP last year, Tejeda was largely exposed in Portland.
13. Che-Hsuan Lin
After a typical Che-Hsuan Lin start to the season at Portland, Lin made his way up to Pawtucket where his strikeout and walk rates shifted just enough in the wrong direction to make him ineffective.
12. Yamaico Navarro
Gone to Kansas City after an uninspiring major league stint.
11. Ryan Westmoreland
Still working his way back after undergoing brain surgery, early last month Westmoreland faced live pitching for the first time since the operation.
10. Josh Reddick
Worked his way into the starting lineup for Boston, and then traded to the Oakland Athletics for Andrew Bailey.
9. Kolbrin Vitek
Vitek went through a prolonged slump in the middle of the year before coming on strong in the second half. He still hasn't shown any power, and it's not clear that he'll ever figure out third base, but he should move on to Portland next year all-the-same.
Nearly traded to the Athletics for Rich Harden, Lars didn't have the big season he needed to restore his prospect status. He's still just 24, but at this point it's hard to see or even remember the Anderson of 2008.
After having one of the worst seasons in recent memory, Stolmy is in need of retooling, be it as a starter or a reliever. The latter would be a shame since his secondary offerings once seemed to have so much potential, but Double-A hitters were not fooled in the least.
After struggling through the first month of the season, Ryan Lavarnway exploded for a huge May in Portland, and then missed not a step after a promotion to Pawtucket. Continues to show improvement behind the plate., He still needs to prove himself in the majors, but expectations are high.
The aggressive approach of the Sox pushed Britton a bit too high a bit too fast. Having missed almost all of 2009 after Tommy John Surgery, Britton's development has been limited in recent years. The push to Salem after a reduced workload in Greenville led to Britton being shelled regularly. Still, he's got a better excuse than Stolmy, and could very well rebound.
Lost much of his momentum between conditioning and injury issues. He could still break camp with the Sox as a bullpen arm, but what the Sox really need is the up-and-coming starter who impressed in 2010.
Clearly still struggling against the advanced competition the Sox have decided to line him up against, it's easy to forget that batters Jose's age are typically hanging out in Salem. It would be nice to have seen the bat immediately, and it's a question whether or not this approach will hurt Iglesias long-term, but he's still got time.
2. Anthony Ranaudo
The most exciting selection from 2010, Ranaudo's season was good, but not necessarily everything we may have dreamed of. It hasn't hurt his hype that much, however, and if he keeps up this pace he'll be ready to fill a regular spot in the rotation within a couple of years.
1. Ryan Kalish
Injured all year, Kalish had little success when he was off the field. He'll have to re-establish himself as the future right fielder this year, but there won't be much resistance to that idea if he has a solid season.
It seems like there's going to be quite a bit of change this year. Two of the guys likely to grace the top of the list didn't so much as make an appearance despite already being in the system, which is not to mention the various breakouts.
We'll get to the voting soon now, using the same rec system as last year. If you've got any suggestions on the process, feel free to leave them in the comments.
I'd also like to gauge the community's opinions on two players:
1) Ryan Kalish -- Prospect, or not?
2) Ryan Westmoreland -- Include him, or not?
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Kalish doesn’t hold rookie status (163 ABs in 2010) so shouldn’t be considered a prospect.
On Westmoreland, I don’t think a fair evaluation can be made.
by Rich M. on Jan 3, 2012 1:17 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
However, Kalish didn't hold rookie status when we voted him onto the list last year
And he hasn’t gained anymore major league service time. He’s at almost exactly the same place as last year but a year older instead. I think if we included him last year, we almost HAVE to consider him again this year.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I think he should've counted last year, personally
just because we knew he was headed back to Pawtucket because he was deemed not ready. But I guess what I’m saying here is, we had this discussion last year and if we decided he should have counted last year, nothing’s really changed in that regard.
I'm definitely wanting him lower on the list though, if he's in the top 20 at all.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
He's the outfielder version of Jed Lowrie
We can’t come up with 20 better prospects than that?
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Only if you want to rank just on pure upside
He hit really well in 2011 in the higher levels and has gotten good marks for his defense.
I’d put him over most guys in our system.
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 3, 2012 7:53 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not talking about upside at all
I’m talking about the fact that he reminds me of: Jed Lowrie, Nick Johnson, Erik Bedard, Rich Harden, Kevin Youkilis…
Have you noticed a theme yet?
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
yeah but he has nothing like the injury history of any of those people
yet at least. Unless you can see the future. In which case, you should change your username to “NostraDavid”
He's been on the 60 day DL more than once
for some reason I can’t find his injury history, but I’m not labeling him the Outfield Lowrie based on just one injury.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Wrist injury in 2007 knocked him out for most of the season
And it lingered into the 2008 season.
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 3, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
Youkilis has a career OBP just under .400 and has compiled almost 30 WAR over his career
If Kalish can do that, he should be Number 1 on this list, easily.
Hell, even Bedard, Harden and Johnson had successful major league seasons.
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 3, 2012 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
He's obviously lower on the list.
Dropping him entirely out of the Top 20 because he hurt himself is crazy.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
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Just because...
a mistake was made last year (my opinion) doesn’t mean it should be repeated this year.
1)Tough but I think by using him last year we have to consider him this year. Going into 2011 he had already used his rookie eligibility, going into 2012 he has gained no more service time. Include him.
2)See just about every top prospect voting post from last season, but in short: no.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Yep.
And I argued very hard last year that Westmoreland should not have been considered at all, and I think that pretty much nothing has changed. With the amount of uncertainty surrounding him, he shouldn’t be considered a prospect. And I think it should stay that way until he starts playing full-time in professional ball, which will be at least another year maybe two.
Last year I was mainly interested in seeing how people viewed him and his chances, I guess.
A bit callous in a way, but nobody else was doing it, so I wanted to gauge. Now that that’s done, I wouldn’t feel any overwhelming need to include him if others didn’t want him in.
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USG
That was a pretty depressing read. Not a good year on the farm.
I vote to include Kalish since the uncertainty about his progress and how he rebounds from yet another injury basically leaves him comparable to the rest of the true prospects.
It's deceptive.
Not a good year for top guys, but then there’s Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, Jacobs, Brentz, Wilson, and another strong draft class.
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USG
Agreed
Although I am starting to get scared with our Minor League coaches. They don’t seem to be doing as well of a job as in past years.
Also, if you look at the AAA team for next year, it looks pretty damn good for position players. Pitching on the other hand…….
The top 20 list
Is more or less a list of the guys who had the best seasons from the year before, or who haven’t had enough bad seasons to fall off the list yet (Britton and Anderson are examples there).
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
you can easily make the argument
that only 2 of last years top 10 should be back in this years top 10 (Lavarnway & Ranaudo). Guys like Xander, Middlebrooks, Brentz, Jacobs, Barnes, Swihart, Owens, and Cecchini have either made the move up or entered the system via the draft.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Jan 3, 2012 1:59 PM EST reply actions
I think he's out of prospect status
at least he fails to appear on other lists that are already out due to age, appearances
his age
is right smack in between Middlebrooks and Lavarnway- so I don’t think age should be a deciding factor there.
He’s on the soxprospects list, so it’s not like everyone has blocked him.
Soxprospects and Us are the only ones who include him
BA, Sickels, Fangraphs, BP, etc. all exclude him, as he technically had too much playing time in 2010
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 3, 2012 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
Ouch
Seems like most of the farm hands have kind of been running in place. Not what you want to see. But there’s possibly a good amount of potential, and even if Iglesias never gets a solid bat he could still take over as the starting SS eventually. It used to be that no one had an SS that could hit, they were just there to anchor the defense.
Frankly I’m surprised that Lars hasn’t been traded for pitching yet. Unless you see him as the DH of the future, I’m not sure how he fits with the team. Maybe wait until he gets on a hot streak then trade to some up-and-coming team who thinks they’re a bat or two away from contending for a playoff spot.
Fingers crossed for a healthy Kalish and a confident Doubront.
by Aluminum Penguin on Jan 3, 2012 3:11 PM EST reply actions
I think OTM went with known commodities
and failed to invest in the futures market……
Middlebrooks, Boegarts, Cecchini, Coyle, Barnes, Jacobs, Brentz, Bradley, Owens, et al give room for hope while the “old-guard” are on their last legs of prospectness (Anderson, Doubront, Tazawa, Bowden, et al)
Lars
I think Lar’s stock fell so much that they might as well hold on to him to see if he does better. They can’t really get that much for him right now anyways.
Yeah that was my thought too
They probably wouldn’t be able to get a pitcher who could help them right away. BUT I don’t think that should stop them from eventually trading him for a pitching prospect. Especially if he gets on a roll at some point during the season, I can’t imagine that there won’t be some offensively challenged team who’s willing to take a chance on him.
by Aluminum Penguin on Jan 3, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
I don't care if Iglesias's glove is powered by a miniature black hole
If he can’t get an OBP above .300 he’s not going to be a starter on the Red Sox.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Salty was a last resort
there literally were no other options at that point.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Besides, Aviles and Punto will both be on the team past this year.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
And has some semblance of power.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Hell, tell Crawford that...
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 3, 2012 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
Carl Crawford: MVP of Tears
The Year of Extreme Opinions
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 3, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
technically speaking
if his glove was powered by a miniature black hole i would like to see that
So would I
in Pawtucket.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Instead of the rec system from last year,
why don’t we just list our top 20 individually and then tally the votes at the end? It’s like the MVP voting in the MLB or NBA. We can give 20 points for number one, 19 for number two, 18 for number three, etc, etc
by OzTiger on Jan 3, 2012 3:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I would be ok with this
It seems like alot of data entry though…….but I don’t have to do it :)
that's a whole lot of work...
and kinda ruins the fun of spreading it out across the rest of the offseason
IMO
Include Kalish:YES – I understand why he isn’t eligible as a rookie any more, but I don’t think either his age or his big league experience are significant enough that his fuzzily-defined “prospectiness” has been exhausted. Of course, this shouldn’t be taken to suggest that his ability is sufficient to make him a prospect (although I think it would be);
Include Westmoreland: NO. Or rather, designate him as an Honorable Mention. Everyone wants him to succeed, but there’s no reasonable way to gauge his future ability given his recovery. This way, I don’t have to feel like a dick when I suggest that he’s being rated way too highly.
But what do I know? I’m the guy who didn’t believe in Juan Carlos Linares.
Oh. Wait…
The Year of Extreme Opinions
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 3, 2012 3:48 PM EST reply actions
Kalish- Yes
Westmoreland- No
Anderson- God no
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Westmoreland
Won’t everybody factor in his health, similar to other more understood health issues, already?
The list is merit/projection based, and there’s nothing wrong with including him in the conversation, despite the unknown path he’s taking. And there’s nothing wrong with picking some other prospect in front of him due to whatever reason.
I know if I were in his shoes, I wouldn’t want to be excluded, nor would I want a special designation or anything. He’s a baseball player with an uncertain future. Everyone is cheering for him to return, let’s foster that hope by including him in the conversation.
well it's because it's not really a projectable injury.
Someone misses a year from shoulder surgery, we have some idea of recovery time and after effects- as far as I know no pro athlete has ever gone through what Westy is, so we have no concept.
Yup, hence the "unknown path he's taking"
Are we not going to consider the first woman prospect because we have no concept how she’ll do? Are we not going to consider anybody with a medical condition previously not experienced by a professional athlete? What about somebody from a country that never produced a player who entered the MiLB farm system?
Everybody should take into account the injury here, which I’m sure means people will not put him in the top-20. But to eliminate him from discussion even before voting takes place is foolish. He’s a prospect, a unique one both in talent and in injury, and I see no reason not to involve everything he brings to the table here.
Westy was on my list last year because I thought he'd be back to playing baseball towards the end of the year
the fact that he wasn’t kind of knocks him off my list, for now anyway.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Poor Britton
I hope he can bounce back next year. The system could really use him looking like a future member of the rotation.
I'm on the fence about Kalish
I did not include him when I did my own rankings two weeks ago, but I think there is a reasonable need to include him.
Westmoreland is hard for me to say. I was very pro RW last year, but I do hear everyone on how impossible it is to judge his skill set. I say we include him in the voting, but I won’t put him in the top 20 right now.
This was a terrible year for a lot of our best prospects.That combined with a good draft makes it very tough to gauge this year. I didn’t put Matt Barnes on my top 10, but I think that was a mistake now. I still believe in Pimentel, Britton, Workman, Coyle and Ranaudo, but I don’t think too many others are still in the mix.
If he isn’t graduated I don’t see how Lavarnway doesn’t top Middlebrooks for the #1 spot now that it seems pretty certain that Boston will keep him catching. FWIW
- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
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Yes, to Kalish... Yes, to Westmoreland and let the votes tally whether he makes the top 20.
And I agree with Matt, as much as I love Kalish on here (despite a lot of folks writing him off as the next “Jed Lowrie injury trainwreck”… I think the potential Lavarnway demonstrated at the MLB level in 2011 puts him at the top of my list.
Also, since I don’t know where else to put this… why the hell are there ads all over OTM for 22kt Yankees baseball cards to celebrate their World Series win? Is this an alternate universe where the Cardinals didn’t win the 2011 World Series, or simply leaking the news that the 2012 season will be fixed for the Yankees to win it all??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Depend upon how you define "prospect"
if you go the Sickels route (ceiling based upon scouting/stats) then Boegarts may need to be first. If you go “who is going to hit the major league club next” then Lavarnway/Middlebrooks would be arguable.
My problem with that system is simple
that is Boergarts’ ceiling now, if upon promotion to AA he spends a year struggling then another year at the level preforming ok, but never develops decent enough plate discipline and has to move to third (all very realistic scenarios) then he essentially has become Will Middlebrooks and has the same ceiling. Proximity to the majors is extremely important because the closer a kid is to the pros, the less the ceiling is the result of guess work and physically based assumptions and more the result of comparables, statistics and established trends. Sure, he could be the next Hanley Ramirez, but he is just as likely to be the next JJ Hardy.
I love what Boergarts did last year, but doing that in AA would be much more meaningful, I think he ranks 3rd behind Laravrnway and Middlebrooks right now, but he could leap frog everyone with a strong showing at AA, becoming one of the top 10 in the game. I think proximity to the majors and pro experience are underestimated in prospect rankings. Take Matt Barnes and Blake Swihart, neither has any really pro experience and yet based on just their ceiling they are out ranking guys like Britton, Pimentel and Coyle. It seems to me that we should err on the conservative side and give more credit to pro performance than we currently do. Looking at last year, they guys who are going to drop are often guys like Britton or Pimental who were years away and struggled at the tougher pro levels.
Just my view- feel free to take your own view of these issues, there isn’t necessarily a right or wrong way here.
- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
www.overthemonster.com
www.spacemanspancakes.wordpress.com
by Mattsullivan on Jan 4, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Just throwing this our here
I would be totally cool with a couple of years of JJ Hardy while we wait for something better to come along.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
O's were smart to lock him up
So you’d need to trade for him.
However, considering his injury history I’m kinda surprised you’re so pro-Hardy.
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 4, 2012 2:00 PM EST up reply actions
I was talking about Matt saying Bogearts could be the next Hardy.
And I’d still rather have an oft-injured Hardy than Iglesias.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Keith Law's take on Westmoreland was to the point
It was something along the lines of “I’m rooting for the kid, but that ship has almost certainly sailed.”
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
well my vote for top prospect in sox system is
will middlebrooks. hopefully byt he end of this season he is ready for the majors and next season makes ortiz expandable and moves youk to dh. or we could trade youk for pitching and make larvarnway the dh next season.
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