FanPost

Why I think the Red Sox have a shot


I think the Red Sox have a shot, it is a very unpopular opinion, but I'll show you why after the jump

ERA-'s of world series winning teams the last 10 years.

2011 Cardinals 103
2010 Giants 90
2009 Yankees 97
2008 Phillies 97
2007 Red Sox 90
2006 Cardinals 110 (wow!)
2005 White Sox 84
2004 Red Sox 91
2003 Marlins 96
2002 Angels 90

The average is 95.

wRC+s of World series winning teams
2011 Cardinals 111
2010 Giants 95
2009 Yankees 117
2008 Phillies 99(wow, I remembered them as a good offensive team)
2007 Red Sox 110
2006 Cardinals 97(how did they win the world series again?)
2005 White Sox 94
2004 Red Sox 120
2003 Marlins 99
2002 Angels 96
The Average is 104.

The Red Sox in 2011’s ERA- was 105 and their wRC+ was 120.
Now the Red Sox ERA- was higher than anyone but the 2006 Cardinals, BUT their wRC+ was tied for the highest of anyone.

2011 Red Sox ERA- with Lackey, Miller, Weiland, and Wakefield removed is 85.

Now that is assuming you have an average pitcher. Doing a quick ERA projection of Oswalt(3.38) and using Clay Davenport’s for Bard(4.08)both seem reasonable the Red Sox have an ERA- of 87. That’s why I’ve been pushing for Oswalt. Now let’s say they don’t sign Oswalt and Padilla/Cook/Aceves/whoever is a replacement level starter. That’s a 5.14 ERA, the Red Sox have an ERA- of 95. If you think Bard will be a replacement level starter too.(which I don’t) the Red Sox have an ERA- of 99. Do you see why I’ve been saying this team has a shot at the WS? Do you see how much Lackey, Weiland, Miller, and Wakefield hurt them?

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