Why I think the Red Sox have a shot
by Bososx13 on Jan 28, 2012 10:58 PM EST
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I think the Red Sox have a shot, it is a very unpopular opinion, but I'll show you why after the jump
ERA-'s of world series winning teams the last 10 years.
2011 Cardinals 103
2010 Giants 90
2009 Yankees 97
2008 Phillies 97
2007 Red Sox 90
2006 Cardinals 110 (wow!)
2005 White Sox 84
2004 Red Sox 91
2003 Marlins 96
2002 Angels 90
The average is 95.
wRC+s of World series winning teams
2011 Cardinals 111
2010 Giants 95
2009 Yankees 117
2008 Phillies 99(wow, I remembered them as a good offensive team)
2007 Red Sox 110
2006 Cardinals 97(how did they win the world series again?)
2005 White Sox 94
2004 Red Sox 120
2003 Marlins 99
2002 Angels 96
The Average is 104.
The Red Sox in 2011’s ERA- was 105 and their wRC+ was 120.
Now the Red Sox ERA- was higher than anyone but the 2006 Cardinals, BUT their wRC+ was tied for the highest of anyone.
2011 Red Sox ERA- with Lackey, Miller, Weiland, and Wakefield removed is 85.
Now that is assuming you have an average pitcher. Doing a quick ERA projection of Oswalt(3.38) and using Clay Davenport’s for Bard(4.08)both seem reasonable the Red Sox have an ERA- of 87. That’s why I’ve been pushing for Oswalt. Now let’s say they don’t sign Oswalt and Padilla/Cook/Aceves/whoever is a replacement level starter. That’s a 5.14 ERA, the Red Sox have an ERA- of 95. If you think Bard will be a replacement level starter too.(which I don’t) the Red Sox have an ERA- of 99. Do you see why I’ve been saying this team has a shot at the WS? Do you see how much Lackey, Weiland, Miller, and Wakefield hurt them?
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The problem isn't doing well in the playoffs
The problem is GETTING to the playoffs, through the Yankees and Rays.
So you need to calculate those teams, as well as our wild card competitors (Angels, Rangers).
That said, yes, I agree we have a shot. But I don’t think we’re favored unless we get a good 4th starter.
by Sologub on Jan 28, 2012 11:16 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Right... I said as much in the original thread where this was posted.
It’s hard to compare the Sox in the AL East to the Cardinals in the NL Central. 83-76 won their division in 2006.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
My point is
If they don’t sign Oswalt, and he is replaced by a replacement level starter, and Bard is replacement level, two replacement level starters instead of the stuff we had last year would make us a 99 ERA- team, better than average, and that would almost certainly put us in the playoffs. If you use projections for Bard, which is smarter, that gets you to 95, if they sign Oswalt, that’s 87, 87 is the 2nd best in the MLB in 2011. They had the best wRC+ in the majors in 2011, should have Crawford and RF have better seasons, yet people are saying they have no chance. Now that’s just ridiculous. Now I know gizmosandy’s comment was as currently constructed, but 95 almost certainly would’ve gotten us into the playoffs last year, plus the bouncebacks from Crawford and RF. How do they have no chance?
But you also have to assume that our offense will be as good, if not better than last year's
I don’t think that will be the case with Ellsbury regressing and Scutaro gone.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 11:45 PM EST up reply actions
Gonzo, Ortiz, Pedroia and Ellsbury
All had some of the best years of their career, or in the case of Ortiz, late careers, we may have just seen their ceiling. I’m no where near convinced a RF platoon will happen and that it will be better than Reddick, SS questionable as well.
As for the rotation, it’s almost certain there will be an injury, even if Bard is a league average starter, I bet we only get 150 innings max out of him and we don’t have any back up. We have no good depth and we have to replace Lackey, who while putting up shitty numbers, was one of the luckiest pitchers I’ve ever seen when it comes to Win-Loss, we were 14-14 when he started and he had a 12-12 record. I know it’s wins, but that’s what we’re replacing, his era- is easy to replace, he was the worst in the league, but how many 100+ inning pitchers were better than that and sub .500? 59 of 145 pitchers who pitched at least 100 innings were under .500.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Rogue nine, it's not Reddick you're replacing
Reddick was good, he had a 105 wRC+. That’s probably better than the platoon this year. What you are replacing is the 75 wRC+ by Red Sox Right Fielders because of Drew’s awful 64 wRC+
The runs Lackey got
will go to the other pitchers. Pitchers don’t have control over the offense, unless they’re 1919 Babe Ruth and are the best hitter in the league. There is always an injury to pitchers, but I think the FO will get more depth. I think that they will sign one guy, and then we will have Aceves and Padilla for depth, and if injuries get absolutely horrible, Cook
Except that we are replacing Reddick, as well as Scutaro/Lowrie...
… since all three of those players have been traded.
You’re assuming the 2012 Red Sox have the top offense in baseball, despite wholesale changes at two starting positions, and career years at others, not to mention a 3B who cannot seem to finish the season at that grueling position.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I was talking about
Sweeney and Ross are trying to replace the 75 wRC+ in right field last year, that’s what they have to improve on to improve on offense.
And replace two above average defenders in RF while they're at it...
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
They were above average, they posted a 9.8 UZR
but their batting was so negative, they only put up 0.7 WAR. I ran my projections through with Cody Ross, and I got 2.2 for 650 PAs, but anyway, I think Ross and Sweeney can beat 0.7 WAR.
I agree that Ellsbury will regress and Scutaro will hurt
and I know you think Crawford is a bad fit for Fenway, but seriously, even if you believe that, Crawford’s career wOBA in Fenway is .334, that’s a HUGE improvement over .304. Also, in 2011, Red Sox right fielders put up a 75 wRC+. In more than 300 PAs, neither Ross or Sweeney has ever had a wRC+ below 92. I know you hate projections, but my simple projection has Ross at a 103 wRC+ and Sweeney at 96. That’s 99.5 A huge improvement over 75. I don’t see how anyone could project them to be as bad as the 2011 Red Sox right fielders.
That's all well and good
but Ells isn’t going to put up 9 WAR, Youk will likely be hurt, again, and Gonzalez is likely to see some regression, even if he hits a few more home runs.
You could probably also expect Pedroia to regress a bit, although another MVP campaign is not out of the realm of possibility. Add to that that Beckett had a near-career year last year and is notoriously inconsistent, and that we don’t know what Buchholz will bring and I don’t expect the Sox to produce near what they should have last year. I see us standing about pat, 89 wins and another lonely October.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 12:08 AM EST up reply actions
I agree Ells won't
I think he might put up like 7 WAR. I don’t expect Pedroia to regress. I expect Gonzalez might be better. I expect him to hit 45 homers. It’s not ridiculous. Go to katron.org and put his 2010 season at PETCO on Fenway. That’s 29 home home runs. 2010 Gonzalez hit 20 homers on the road. That’s 49. Buchholz is inconsistent, but it’ll be huge to have Buchholz for more than 83 innings. Beckett’s SIERA was 2.89 I expect it to regress to 3.43. But my problem with you doing this is that this is what a projection is supposed to do, yet you reject all projections, so what the projection projected the Red Sox to win the division, everyone did. None of the ESPN “experts” picked the Yankees or Rays to win the division. The Red Sox were also by far their biggest mistake.
Nobody is rejecting all projections outright
They are an entertaining way to pass time that occasionally have something to do with reality. But in my substantial time here, I have never seen anyone who launches out numbers as frequently.
We’re all SABR friendly, but you take it to a ridiculous new level.
Everything Must Go.
I don't think it's a SABR issue
Just that he’s looking at projections in a vacuum. I’m all for projections, but we have to recognize that they’re just guesses, and also that they apply differently for different divisions.
The Red Sox are a good team, maybe even a great team, but unfortunately they are almost certainly not better than the Rays of Yankees at the present time.
Baseball is baseball, so that’s not a death sentence, but I really wish they would get another starter.
I do not look at them in a vacuum
I tried to prove about a million times using other ways, why I think the Red Sox are a playoff team, and use projections as one way, when I used projections, everybody shot that down and said they were useless
Exactly...
Show me the projections that have the Yankees and the Rays finishing behind us (since you’ve quoted them)… I don’t follow the logic.
Of course, 2011 was considered a rebuilding year for the Rays, with all the departures, and yet… there they were in the playoffs again.
Projections are good to look at, but they don’t change the fact that as currently constructed we have three solid starting pitchers (two with significant injury concerns), an experiment at #4 and retreads at #5… as currently constructed, they are the third best team in the division, and unless there are two wild cards in 2012, they are not a playoff team.
They will likely finish third in the division without another pitcher.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Oliver has us finishing one game behind the Yankees
Oliver...
… Clothesoff?
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 29, 2012 1:23 AM EST up reply actions
The order I would trust them would be
1. Clay
2. CAIRO
3. oliver
Oliver has TB at 75 wins which looks ridiculous, and Matt Swartz showed that Oliver’s pitching projections were, not good. Oliver has some good ideas, and good hitting projections, but until Brian Cartwright fixes the pitching, I’m definitely not going to buy it, and take it’s projected standings with a grain of salt.
CAIRO just updated, I didn't notice that
they have the Yankees beating the Sox by 2 games and the Sox winning the wild card. You can find them here I said that if they signed a starter, I think they win the division, if they don’t I think it’s very close, and they have a 50 50 shot at the division or wildcard.
oh, but actually
the updated CAIROs just use MARCEL projections not CAIROs. Marcel is Tom Tango’s projection. He made it as a baseline, basically if you don’t beat marcel, you’re not worth using. I would take these with an even bigger grain of salt than oliver, Marcel assumes league average for any player who hasn’t been in the majors, they don’t use minor league stats like the other ones.
How did they do last year?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Well,
humans projected the Red Sox to win the division too. All of the ESPN “experts” picked the Red Sox to win the division and a lot of them picked the Sox to win the WS
And the computers?
And what about the year before?
Between 2010, 2011, Carl Crawford, Julio Lugo and John Lackey I’m done with conventional. There are some things a formula and a calculator just cannot fit into the game. And those are the things that killed us.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
See, other than Ells, I see little regression in the O
Gonzo, if anything, could be better. RF is a roster disaster that would be hilarious for the other 29 teams, but may match last year’s RF misery.
Pedroia is also likely to be studlike as usual. But none of these people can pitch.
Everything Must Go.
Now Sean...
But none of these people can pitch.
This runs directly contrary to the “Leave No Terrible Idea Unexploited” motto…
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 29, 2012 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
2012 Red Sox
C – Shoppach
1B – Punto
2B – Scutaro Aviles
SS – Lester
3B – Ortiz
LF – Crawford Crawford
CF – Buchholz
RF – Brett Gardner (acquired by trading Pedroia and Ellsbury)
DH – Jose Iglesias
SP1 – Bard
SP2 – Bard again
SP3 – Aaron Cook
SP4 – Youk
SP5 – Bard one more time
CL – Beckett/Padilla/Silva platoon
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 29, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
As posted previously
Starting Rotation:
Bard
John Henry’s Wife
Lefty Dustin Pedroia
Bard again
Eliot from Jordan’s Furniture
by Sean O on Jan 13, 2012 11:06 PM EST
Everything Must Go.
The Kool Aid man is our spot guy right?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 12:54 AM EST up reply actions
...
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 29, 2012 12:56 AM EST up reply actions
And what are you talking about
Lefty Dustin Pedroia
He’s worth 40 WAR dude…
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Hmm
I think at most, a pitcher can only be worth 32 WAR, dude goes 32-0, pitches 32 perfect games, strikes out 27 each game. He’s still only contributed 32 wins to the team.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 1:05 AM EST up reply actions
No that's incorrect
above replacement. That’s 32 wins, not above replacement. JK LOL. But Actually, a pitcher with a 0 ERA in Texas pitching 32 complete games would have a WAR of 17
Really? Interesting.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 1:37 AM EST up reply actions
This is hilarious.
I love replacing Crawford with Crawford…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Sean
I respect your opinion, but I do not see how RF can be as bad as last year. As I pointed out earlier neither Ross or Sweeney has ever posted a career wRC+ below 92 when having more than 300 PAs. Unless you expect both to totally explode, I don’t see how they could average a 75 wRC+.
Okay, but you have two flaws in this argument...
1) Oswalt is not signing in Boston. That’s been pretty well established at this point.
2) You assume better than average will win the AL East, or at least a wild card.
All of us agree that this is a good team with another legit starter, but currently we seem to have missed out on Oswalt (ESPN reporting he’s going to St. Louis pending a physical), haven’t offered enough for Floyd, and haven’t even made an offer on Jackson (who reportedly has at least three offers for three years, which Boston will not compete with).
So, to Gizmo’s point… as currently constructed, this team will not get into the playoffs. I don’t see them filling the #4 rotation spot, which is why all of us are saying they won’t make the playoffs.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
1)
This has been rejected now, and now it looks like “the two sides would have to get creative” per mlbtraderumors.
2. I don’t know which post yo’re quoting, but I’ll just reply, almost any improvement last year would’ve gotten the sox in the playoffs. I do believe we’ll win the division, but that’s another story.
I don’t think we missed out on Oswalt, and mlbtraderumors says we have made an offer to Floyd.
Okay... any improvement on last year would've gotten the Sox in the playoffs... last year.
However, the teams in the division got better: ie. the Yankees and Rays.
Yankees added Kuroda, a durable workhorse starter to replace the smoke and mirrors of Garcia, and legit young stud in Pineda to replace the stem cell arm of Colon.
The Rays have several young players that performed well late last season, and add a young pitcher who is “projected” (there’s that word again) to be an ace.
We, on the other hand, have traded our starting SS who was a gritty above average player, and the young up and coming RF we had, lost one of the most consistent closers in the game and converted his lights out set up man to the rotation, lost Lackey, Dice K and Wakefield from our rotation and replaced them with the aforementioned experiment and… Vicente Padilla? Not to mention that Beckett almost dodged the injury bug that’s plagued him his whole career, and our young #3 had a broken back, which may create problems to his durability this year and going forward.
I don’t see the improvement over last year… where is it again? The platoon in RF? Aviles at SS? Bailey replacing Papelbon, or Melancon taking over for Bard?
If we add a starter, sure… but that’s what we’re all saying. As currently constructed, this team isn’t good enough to make the playoffs.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Garcia was smoke and mirrors, and Colon was a stem cell arm
they totally got lucky and wouldn’t be good in 2012, but they pitched well. I’m not sure Pineda and Kuroda will pitch pitch better than them in 2011 even if they are much better pitchers.
Okay keep something in perspective when evaluating pitching prospects. 60% of BAs top 10 prospects who are pitchers bust, and only 25% of them become stars. I do think Scutaro is better than Aviles, but I was shocked to see that Aviles had a very good career UZR/150 at SS and his UZR/150 at SS was better than at any position. I think Melancon and Bailey will be only a little worse than Papelbon and Bard, bullpen is not really a worry for me.
Our young #3 got hurt, and will probably pitch more than 82 innings this year. That’s a big improvement. I think the platoon in RF will be a big improvement, I think Crawford will definitely rebound, and anything in the #4 and 5 spot is better than Lackey.
I don’t really see how the Rays got better. Jennings will be good, but he’s not that much of an improvement over Joyce who put up 3.8 WAR. I did a study and found that their pitching was lucky last year. Their team SIERA was much higher than their team ERA, which you would expect from a good defensive team, but they were still lucky after adjusting for defense. The Red Sox on the other hand, were extremely unlucky. Their team SIERA was much lower than their team ERA, DESPITE UZR CALLING THEM THE THIRD BEST DEFENSIVE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE.
Anything in 4/5 is not necessarily an improvement over Lackey
He won 12 games. Do you think we will automatically find a #5 who will get us to that level?
You can say the Rays got lucky all you want, but they still beat us. They are on the upswing, and we are falling off of a cliff.
We didn’t get unlucky, we weren’t good. This year, we are much much worse. Just like 2010, no matter how we start off, we will be sunk by our utterly incompetent roster construction.
Everything Must Go.
My point was
unless you’re 1919 Babe Ruth and also the best hitter in the league, you can’t control your run support. The runs will go to someone else. Sean, you understand DIPS, and if your DIPS is much better than your ERA, and you have a great fielding team, you’re probably unlucky
You're a DIPS
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 10:03 AM EST up reply actions
"I don’t really see how the Rays got better"
Answer: Matt Moore.
Jennings did not replace Joyce. He replaced Sam Fuld. The Rays also replaced Kelly Stoppach with Molina. The starting shortstop will likely be Tim Beckham, not the black whole of Brignac and Rodriguez, though the Tampa papers think that Davis is likely to be moved for a shortstop.
The Red Sox offense was not as good as it looked. As I have written before, the RS offense was not very efficient in the runs they scored. Some data, the left column is runs scored, the right is the winning percentage for scoring that many runs.
1 0.105860113
2 0.257274119
3 0.407092199
4 0.519345238
5 0.649910233
6 0.75
7 0.81981982
8 0.869955157
9 0.933333333
10 0.939759036
11 1
If you apply this to the Red Sox, based on the distribution of runs scored, they should have won 92.5 games. The Yankees, by contrast, scored fewer runs than the Red Sox did on average, but project to 94.5 runs.
This really becomes clear when you look at the RS in September. The RS offense scored an average 5.4 runs in 2011. In September, they scored exactly the same number of runs on average. But the distribution of those runs was extremely inefficient. They were so inefficient, in fact, that the offense projected to win 14 games based on the distribution of runs in September.
By contrast, if you look at the runs allowed, the Red Sox are predicted to win 6.5 games (they won 7).
Conclusion: The RS collapse was not, by this measure, based on luck. It was based on horrible pitching and a very inconsistent, and in the end, a very average offense in the last month of the season.
Right, you can't expect us to have an elite offense all year round
Because the simple truth is we are incredibly fragile. Youk is only good for about half a season anymore, Pedroia’s got screws in his foot, Adrian’s shoulder could fall off any day now, and Crawford’s been running on turf for eight years.
Our offense could fall apart at any moment, to say nothing of the pitching, which is also guaranteed to collapse.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2012 9:40 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, TLD may have gone too far here.
Our offense will still be a top notch, top of the league performance. I suspect we may surpass the 2011 offensive production, with some bounce backs from key guys (and I hope Youk’s weight loss helps him stay on the field… had an athletic trainer friend here say that being even 5 lbs overweight has a negative performance effect on an elite athlete).
However… I think we’re looking at real holes in the rotation, not just poking holes.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
This.
I believe that the offense won’t be this reason for a failure to reach the postseason (but insert exasperated hand-waving over Scoot-Gate), but critiquing the state of the Red Sox starting pitching and the measures which have been taken to address it is not properly “poking holes” it’s poking more holes – in addition to the obvious ones already there
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 30, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
I still think overall we'll be a very good to elite offense
I’m just saying that because our star players have injury histories that make you say “yuck” there are going to be times next year where we won’t be as good as advertised.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
There is only
1 without any real questions, Lester.
And yet some folks continue to say we're definitely getting better production out of our #4 & #5 in 2012.
It is so hard to track… we had more depth in 2011, and it failed miserably.
We have more questions in 2012, but people want to pretend you can project “replacement level” production from the #4 and #5, when the reality is the players we’ve got there right now are no guarantee for replacement level performance.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Great data to support the BLAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS camp.
I mean, clearly we came up short in September based on our pitching, not the offense, even if it was inefficient.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Bloggy and TLD may be my most consistently fav posters,
and nbn routinely brings bizarre, funny comments, but you regularly have the best analysis and insight.
Everything Must Go.
Why thank you Sean
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
Damn... I didn't even make the list.
My insights aren’t good enough? Of course, I do lean a little old school, without a ton of knowledge of the SABR stats.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
There are a few commenters I like greatly
You’re always cheery and nice to have around as a calming presence, R9 and sologub tend to have solid analysis, and I love most of the site’s actual writers. There are a few others I’ll definitely stop to read by author name alone.
Everything Must Go.
Ha ha ha!
Nothing like asking for a compliment to get one.
;)
My calming presence is just because I’m trying to spread the aloha! (Local Hawaiian expression, for those folks not familiar…)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well, it is good analysis.
Of course, BZ always comes up with some great stuff too, but you do tend to hit the nail on the head frequently.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well bizarre and funny have definitely been the order of the day this offseason.
Thanks.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 31, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Some good news is Cafardo tweeted
that an AL GM not on the Red Sox or Cubs side, told him that the Red Sox will probably get significant compensation for Theo because Bud Selig dosen’t like MLB GMs leaving their teams.
crossing fingers for Garza
It won't be Garza
we might possibly get Dempster or Wells, which I’d be totally fine with.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 10:54 AM EST up reply actions
I'm sticking with it being Lackey
That the decision was so monstrously bad, that it actually surpasses organizational commitment. That John Lackey is an anchor tied to Theo’s waist until it expires, whether he works for the Cubs, Red Sox or Israel’s Petach Tikva Pioneers.
Everything Must Go.
No doubt... I think if we could dump Lackey on another team...
… all of us would take that, even if it meant going into the season with our rotation as it stands today. Just to get rid of Lackey.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I hope...
… that the Sox pitched that to Selig in their mediation briefs:
Clearly, the new head of the Cubs organization’s player procurement apparatus has already made a substantial investment in the ability of thisdouche-holeplayer going forward. The Red Sox organization is willing to include a trade of John Lackey’s contract to the Cubs as part of the compensation package due to the Red Sox for agreeing to permit the Cubs to avail themselves of Mr. Epstein’s services, in derogation of the Red Sox organization’s exclusive rights to those services.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 30, 2012 3:59 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Well done.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
You can cross your fingers, arms, legs, eyeballs and ears
We’re not getting Garza. That would be a terrible precedent to set even if it would be great for us.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 29, 2012 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
This
I don’t want to have to give up Lester when we hire KT away from the Dbacks.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
How so?
I disagree. It would set a precedent, but in a good way. This would discourage executives from leaving their teams before their contracts are up.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 29, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
When 1 year of an executive regardless of their name or level
is worth what they could argue is two years of their #1 starter( I think it is Dempster but they will say it is Garza if his name comes up), it is a silly precedent. But, I am fine with agreeing to disagree.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 29, 2012 11:32 PM EST up reply actions
The 2011 Red Sox were one of the top 15 offenses of the last 50 years by wRC+
With no help from either corner OF spot. Even with expected regression from Ellsbury/Ortiz the offense will be fine, to say the least.
Rotation wise I will still take Beckett/Lester/Buchholz over Sabathia/Pineda/Kuroda. WAR wise they’re probably a wash.
It then comes down to if you think Freddy Garcia and AJ Burnett are light years ahead of Bard and mystery starter #5. Garcia threw 150 innings of a league-average FIP last year. Burnett has coughed up 4.33, 4.83 and 4.77 FIP’s the last 3 years…in other words, #5 starter material. Sounds a lot like a (rather low) benchmark for Bard and mystery starter to me.
Don’t start on the even year Beckett crap because the mere mention of that makes me want to defenestrate myself. That belongs in the same area as the Verducci effect and Liverpool conspiracies.
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
How much time
have Pineda or Kuroda missed recently?
Also, Beckett hasn’t put up two really good years in a row since Florida.
Everything Must Go.
This
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 29, 2012 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
Baseball ref says the 2007 Sox..
..had a 123 ERA+
Am I reading something wrong here?
I don't think Bref has ERA-
fangraphs does. I thought bref had ERA+. ERA- is better than ERA+ though, ERA+ has some problems ERA- corrects for that.
Thanks, Bosox, for trying to
talk us off the ledge. IMHO Sean is correct, as he often is, that projections are only that. It seems, however, that it is as logical to project improved performance over 2011 by demonstrably projectable players in LF, RF, SS, 3b, maybe C, as it is to project regression
by CF, 1b after adjusting to the league and having a fully healed shoulder (see Papi’s wrist) and DH. Either projections are equally valid or equally false. It appears, btw, that the eye test at those positions re: defense, splits, Shop’s arms supports your numbers/projections.
I expect when/if you do the requested comparisons with other teams we will learn the Sox are by no means alone in dealing with performance problems. Are you a friend of Carmine?
by GerryT on Jan 30, 2012 3:28 AM EST via mobile reply actions
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