Why punting this season makes at least a little sense.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 2:35 PM EST
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PrintI want to preface this article by stating that if we are less than 5 games back in late July, then the statements put forward in this article do not apply. All moves made in this article would be made near the trading deadline.
The Red Sox are a good team that, in my opinion, is headed in the wrong direction. An organization that was once a near-perpetual prospect generator and the envy of 28 other clubs in the league has begun to use a tactic I associate with the mid-2000s Yankees, we are buying our players instead of attempting to promote internal growth. Sometimes, as is the case with Adrian Gonzalez, that works out. Sometimes, as is the case with Julio Lugo or Bobby Jenks, it fails miserably and we're left paying millions of dollars to players who are not giving us a good chance to win games.
The Red Sox won the 2007 World Series through a combination of shrewd FA signings (Ortiz), some great homegrown players (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Youkilis), economic might (Manny, Drew), and one big "what the fuck were they thinking?" trade (Beckett/Lowell for Hanley/Anibal).
However, our last shrewd free agent signing came in 2010, when we signed Adrian Beltre to a pillow contract for $10 million, and in the current CBA climate, throwing our financial weight around has proven less effective, as teams like Texas, Anaheim, and Detroit have started to catch up with the Red Sox. Hamstrung by two massive contracts that will not produce an equivalent value from the players, it is time the Red Sox took a different tactic, but with no help coming from the minors any time soon, the 2012 season looks somewhat bleak. The offense will be great, but the pitching staff is in shambles, and the pieces that still have upside have to be considered inconsistent at best.
The Red Sox are in a unique position in 2012. When most teams become sellers, it is because they are about to go into a lengthy rebuilding process, it will be years before they are competitive again. With the Red Sox core composed of good, young players however, the team can sell off their spare parts and still be in a position to excel in 2013. The Red Sox, based on their economic prowess, have the ability to sell off talented pieces of their team, without giving up anything vital to their 2013 World Series run. Lets take a look at what they have to offer other teams:
Selling the closer Billy Beane pulled off this tactic on Cherington this winter, and Ben should be prepared to use the same gambit in July. Relievers are the least reliable players in the game, and it is all but guaranteed that a contending team will be looking for bullpen help. Andrew Bailey, Mark Melancon, Alfredo Aceves, and even Daniel Bard could find themselves suiting up for another team this summer, as we receive a hefty package of prospects for the most overvalued position in baseball.
The Power Auction Kevin Youkilis has a team option for 2013, but given his play style at the hot corner, his career may take a better turn if he were to go to a team in need of help at first base. Texas, Milwaukee, Washington, and Arizona all come to mind as teams that could use Youk's blend of offense and defense at first base.
The Elder Statesman This one is hard to swallow, because I love David Ortiz and I want to see him retire in a Boston uniform. AL teams in need of a powerful DH could come calling, but his potential $16 million price tag may be too heavy for some. Detroit, Minnesota, or Cleveland could be options if we pick up some of the salary.
The Young Catcher Ryan Lavarnway is one of the few bright spots in Boston's upper minors, and if he continues to hit and his defense improves, Jarrod Saltalamacchia may not be long for the Red Sox. Jarrod is an interesting case, with years of control left he could interest both contending and rebuilding teams as an option for the future. As a catcher, he would also fetch a premium price.
The MVP It wouldn't be my first choice to move Ellsbury, but if he and Scott Boras are intent on moving on to free agency then we would be stupid to not try and grab a huge package for the player. Ells is under control for one year after this one, so it may behoove us to hold onto him if he repeats his 2011 performance, using him to make a run at the title in 2013.
The Wishful Thinking He'll be almost impossible to move, and if we get a package in return for him it would be at the expense of salary relief, but Carl Crawford should at least be put on the market, interest will come from teams hoping that leaving Boston's misshapen left field will help Crawford return to his old form and be the 4-5 WAR player he was in Tampa Bay.
By moving these players in 2012, the Red Sox can rebuild their upper minors, putting them in a better position to contend, and win, in 2013 and beyond.
I want to finish this article by stating that if we are less than 5 games back in late July, then the statements put forward in this article do not apply. All moves in this article will be made during the trade deadline.
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Seriously
CAIRO and Claydavenport projections both have us winning the divsion, OLIVER has us coming in 2nd by 1 game, and winning the wildcard. There is zero reason to punt the season and waste the prime of Ellsbury, Pedroia, Crawford, Lester, Buchholz, and Gonzalez. We have 6 all star caliber players in their prime, most teams don’t have that, it would be stupid to waste that, and even though Ortiz and Youk are old, they are still very productive
Crawford in Boston is NOT All-Star caliber.
Ells is only here for two more years, we’re wasting nothing from him. I don’t buy into projection systems at all, I never have.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
You are not wasting the prime of those players for a 1-year "clean-up"
In 2013 Pedroia, Ellsbury & Lester will be 29, Adrian & Carl will be 31, Clay will be 28, Lavarnway will be 25 and then you add Middelbrooks and possibly Kalish as well.
Uh, because it makes you a better team in 2013 and beyond.
Why is this even a question?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
Ortiz is a DH and very replaceble
if Middlebrooks is ready by say mid 2012 then you have to think about Youk due to his position and his salary
And injury history...
I hate to see him go, but I think he could be a piece we move (especially if Middlebrooks is ready by mid-season) even if we’re contending.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Saltalamacchia
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
but Middlebrooks and Lavarnway
would be nowhere close to Ortiz and Youk in production, this would totally kill our chances for next season, a lot of people don’t realize we’re still a world series caliber team. One season where you are the most unlucky team in baseball and still only missed the playoffs by one game, and you’re almost guaranteed improvement at LF, RF, #4 starter, and #5 starter for the next season does not mean you have no shot the next season
I don't think any of that is guaranteed.
We have platoon players in RF and no idea if Valentine will actually play them that way, #4 starter is an absolute experiment with very limited starting history and #5 is going to be a guy that used to be good and could easily end up worst than 12-12 Lackey. If we get any improvement in LF, I think we might say with the same certainty that we we’ll get equal regression out of CF. Also looking at a downgrade at SS.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
12-12 Lackey
are you seriously using wins? Lackey had maybe the worst season ever by a Red Sox starter, yeah, I might say that’s a guarantee. Ross and Sweeney vs the 75 wRC+ and 0.7 WAR Red Sox Right Fielders put up in 2011, I like their chances on that one. I do agree Ellsbury will regress, but we also had 98 third order wins per Clay Davenport also Gonzalez won’t be hurt. Crawford has been debated a million times, but I think he’ll be a 4 WAR player. Beckett will regress a little probably, but with all those improvements, I say maybe we win 95 games, because of regression to the mean, teams tend to gravitate towards the middle, but we could win more.
It's a result that I think is important to note.
His ERA was the worst of any Red Sox pitcher, but if you have 100 pitchers are putting up exactly the same ERA, are they all going to have the same exact impact on the team? No!
Lackey pitched to some of the worst numbers we’ve seen in Boston ever, but, backed by the offense, he won half of his decisions, THAT is what we are replacing, the results, not the stat. Aaron Cook could easily suck next year, be on the unfortunate side of the offense and put up a 6-14 record, his stats could be better but in the end the team might end up losing more of his games compared to what they did with Lackey next year. He isn’t as easily replaced as people are making it out to be.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Yes, it's rare that wins matter as a starter.
However, if you’re suggesting the pitcher replacing Lackey will have better success, then it is fair to note that Lackey was 12-12, despite his horrendous performance on the mound.
Right now, I’m not sure I see 12 wins out of anyone we’re projecting to be #5, unless we add a #4 and Bard slides to that #5 spot… even then, it’s a gamble that Bard offers more than Lackey’s results.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Did you even read the first sentence?
He’s laying this out in a hypothetical where we are considering this in LATE JULY.
Also worth noting I’d imagine many of the same projections had us in 1st place before last season too, just out of curiosity since I don’t recall watching, how did we do in the 2011 playoffs?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Couple Issues
1. “Shrewd FA Signings” are typically only considered shrewd in hindsight. Not many projected Ortiz to become the best that he is/was, so of course that was shrewd. Shrewd at the time – who knows. Signings like Cody Ross and even players like Ryan Sweeney, could become shrewd moves and are the types of signings that I back because they are for players that are still young and for low dollar amounts and short time frames
2. I’m in general agreement with your main premise, i.e. “punting” although it is within the realm of possibility that things break right and this team contends as it is structured. Standing pat and allowing our minor system to catch up another year may not be a bad call for both future flexibility and obvious financial reasons. Problem: it just seems that the majority of the fan base can’t take it.
3. Our minors are catching up. We had a few dull years but you can envision Lavarnway, Middlebrooks and Kalish being ready to make an impact this year. There are young guys who look to be in the fast track as well. The Sox system ranks around 8-12 range which is pretty solid.
That said I would not be against seeing what we can get for
the likes of Youk, Beckett and possibly Ellsbury – depending upon where we are mid-season. Build around Adrian, Pedoira, Lester, Lavarnway and the like
In many ways the Sox are in a good position:
They have a solid young core, they will gain financial mobility in 2013 with Youk, Ortiz (maybe) and Dice coming off of the books and they have some young guys about ready. Couple that with some shrewd FA movement in 2013 and yeah – I’m willing to just “see what happens” in 2012
I'm willing to wait until July
but if he’s healthy, I think Youk should be moved unless we’re leading or are really close to leading the division, we might get something for Beckett now, but he’s sort of in the same situation as Crawford with his contract.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I think you could move him even if we're contending.
Offense isn’t the problem in Boston, but if you find someone offering the right package for Youk, and Middlebrooks is ready, I could see him being moved at or before the deadline.
Won’t be the most popular move, and I love Youk… but I think he’s better suited as a first baseman somewhere else, and much like the Nomar move in 2004, it may be the best thing for the Sox to move him before he breaks down in August/September.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
IMO
We’ve got three guys in AAA, but not much else until you hit Salem, of those three guys, there are no exciting pitchers, which is what we really need. Our minors are catching up, but the Victor and Adrian trades annihilated the middle of the system, we can’t really expect any help from our farm until 2014 at the earliest.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
College players like Brentz and even Barnes
Hopefully will move up fast, but yeah basically its Kalish, Middlebrooks and Lavarnway until 2014.
2014
Or what I call the “LETS GET READY TO RUMBLE!” year.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
That's why I think we need some pitching prospects
we don’t have a Matt Moore in the system, and I would like to get a couple of guys some experience in 2012 and 13 before we go all out in 2014.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:51 PM EST up reply actions
Ellsbury could bring back a haul
he might be our best trading chip….Sure wish that LF dude would agree to play CF
Why would you trade Ellsbury
we probably will resign him, we just want to wait to see if 2011 was real, and if it wasn’t, we’ll re-sign him for cheaper. Why does everyone assume he’s gone? It’s kind of dumb to give a player a long term contract over a career year.
People love to assume the worst will happen. They assume Ellsbury will leave, they assume Beckett will suck, they assume Crawford won’t rebound, they assume Bar will blow up as a starter. Some people are just assuming the absolute worst possible things will happen because they happened last year.
We don't have the money to re-sign him.
Crawford saw to that.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Yes we do.
I assume Ellsbury will have a good season next year, but not like last year, last year was the highest WAR of any player since 2007. I think he’ll take a little less. Jenks and Dice BB’s big contracts will be gone. And Lackey will count for a significant amount less against the luxury tax because can’t the Red Sox just pick up his option at the end of his deal for like no money, then his AAV will go down. You do realize Ellsbury can’t leave until 2014, we still have 2 more seasons of him when he goes, we should not trade him. I think he will re-sign.
He won't re-sign
Not after everything that went on in 2010, not for anything less than what Crawford is making maybe more.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
more
Carl didn’t have Boras, or a year like Ells had in 2011
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
But he probably won't be as good as
in 2011 so he probably will take less than Crawford, and all we have to do is use the money of Jenks, Dice BB, and Youk will probably have a cheaper contract.
Sure, lets use all that money we were going to spend on pitching.
Seems like a good idea.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:14 PM EST up reply actions
which is why you sell high!
NOW
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
This
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
But we have a chance at winning the WS
you don’t trade arguably your best player. We are losing so much dead weight for money, Jenks, Dice K, and Lackey’s AAV is seriously going down. Youk will take a cheaper contract. That’s probably enough for Ellsbury and a pitcher.
they are a long shot
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Selig apparently wants these expanded playoffs this season
So even if we can’t take the AL East contenders, with some luck we might beat out the Angels/Rangers/Indians/Whoever for the second wild card.
they have 3/5 of a rotation damn it!
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
o give me a break
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
This comment makes no sense...
… Bard’s a reliever
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
No, he's slated to be
a starter, as much as you dislike the idea.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 9:14 PM EST up reply actions
Miguel Cabrera
is slated to be a major league third baseman… doesn’t necessarily make it so.
Everything Must Go.
Well
Cabrera has played an entire season as a 3rd baseman. Playing it, and playing it well are two different things.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
No evidence that he can start...
… he’s a starter the same way I’m the King of Finlandia and wear sparkly trousers – I’ve declared it to be so.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
You don't need evidence he can start,
when the incoming manager says he’s going to get every chance to do the job. Whether or not he gets the job, or can hold it are irrelevant. So, until proven otherwise, he’s a starter.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 9:28 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, but...
… if it turns out that – despite having been slated as a starter – he gives our team only 30 innings pitched as a starter or so, it kinda negatively impacts the team going forward. Bobby V. can call him whatever he wants to, if the reality is that he ends up not being a “starter,” then he isn’t.
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I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
^
“… reality is that if he ends up…”
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Err...
… no, wait. That was right the first time. Damned sparkly pants!
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Leaving aside sparkly pants for the moment...
I’m aware that Bard is penciled in as our fourth starter at the moment – so we have an innings question mark at 4 and no one at all at 5. Unless we’re planning on forfeiting every fifth game, we need to find a lot of non-abysmal starting innings we don’t currently have. Regardless of my assessment of the wisdom of Bard as a starter, this is a huge problem with the team as constituted at this moment. Lester/Beckett/Buch/UNKNOWN STARTER/Bard+TPM is not so bad. Lester/Beckett/Buch/Bard/TPM kinda makes me want to throw up…
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 29, 2012 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
What's TPM??
I was going to suggest…
It’s Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Bard/Padilla, though Cook or Silva could replace Padilla.
And that still makes me want to throw up.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Terrible Pitcher Medley
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 29, 2012 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
I have to admit, those sparkly trousers look pretty rad on you.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
Now that I know your a lawyer,
I can more easily see through these kinds of statements. Its a perversion of logic that you make sound good.
To be fair...
… this is more evidence that Bard is a starter than there is that I’m the King of Finlandia. Just not that much more.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 29, 2012 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
For everyone shitting themselves about the rotation
Here’s the thing:
Almost no team have a 5 man rotation. Ever.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/fifth-starters-dont-exist/
There’s a reason Cherington is collecting starters and stashing many of them in Pawtucket.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jan 29, 2012 2:03 PM EST up reply actions
WE DONT HAVE A 4 MAN ROTATION EITHER
And just because other teams don’t doesn’t make it an excuse to be unprepared. It’s a dangerous slope that upon being bought into, is reason for ownership to just slash payroll to $100M and reap the benefits.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
I think we could win in 2012, even with the team we have
However, we would be relying heavily on luck. Luck that Beckett and Buchh perform, luck that one or two of our minor league deals puts up Colon/Garcia seasons, luck that our offense is still the best in the game, and luck that Bard succeeds.
I’m optimistic by nature, but I feel that with that much reliance on luck, compared to the very solid starting pitching and offenses of the MFY and Rays, we would be considered the third most talented team in the AL East.
we do not have the pitching to compete
with Det, LAA, TB, Tex
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Recent history tells us
It’s likely that at least one of them gets injured, then what?
And is Bard’s stuff as amazing at 94-95 MPH as it is at 99-100? I’m not so sure. People need to get over that, he won’t pitch the same as a starter as he will a reliever. The things that made him good at one, might not make him so good at the other.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
I'm going to catch some flak for this
but I’m not sure I trust Lester vs Weaver/Price/Moore
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
you shouldnt
Lester never steps up
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Lester> Jered Weaver
who had really good season which was totally fueled by BABIP. Matt Moore, really? He has really good upside, but you do realize 60% of BA top 10 pitchers bust don’t you? Matt Moore is more likely to bust than to be a major leaguer, and only 25% become stars. I would say Lester is about equal to Price.
ok, you cannot be taken seriously now at all
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
We were taking him seriously before?
I stopped that when he said Crawford was an All-Star.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
I think he is better than Stras
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
He very well might be.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
he is definitely not better than Strasburg
Moore’s a great pitching prospect, but there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Strasburg threw 100 mph with a secondary pitch better than any of Moore’s pitches. His 3rd pitch might be better than any of Moore’s too
you only say all this
because you watch too much ESPN, and listen to too much WEEI
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
How about never posting a K/9 below 11.52?
seems as good a reason as any.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
-lefty
-faces higher level of competition
-better all around approach
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Strasburg has way better stuff
and has pitched very well in the majors. in 92 innings Strasburg has a 1.87 FIP. I would be more surprised if Moore became a star than if he busted. You do realize that the average #2 overall ranked player only gets 11 WAR for his cost controlled years.
You don't get to see sunshine a whole lot do you?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
you cannot pay 3 position players 20+ each
that’s insane
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
WE ARE NOT THE MFY
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
The Yankees spent over 200 million.
Exception, not the rule.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
Lackey's AAV is NOT going down
unless we sign him another year. How do you know that Youk takes a cheaper contract and why would you resign him anyway? and that’s clearly not enough anyway for Ells
why resign youk if he has an option for 2013
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Okay, I think everyone here at OTM needs to read this
http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2012/1/12/2702921/re-signed-resigned
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Nice.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
It's cool
I’m not trying to be a dick, I just think some people here honestly don’t know that’s the rule.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
im okay with it
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
And from a school teacher too!
Can we just blame the recession on you now?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Sure
of course if you had a Physics teacher teaching English I’d probably find someone or something else to blame
I remember the engineers in my physics classes
They had t-shirts that said:
I’m an engenire
I’m an ingeneer
I’m an engenere
I’m really good at math
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Awesome.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
because can't we pick up an option
for like nothing because he got hurt? That’s what I heard. You might not resign Youk. Matsuzaka and Jenks is 16 million, Youk is 12 million, Lackey probably takes off like 5 million, you think Ellsbury will get more than Pujols?
And to gizmosandy, Ellsbury’s contract dosen’t expire until after 2013
yes, well aware
I’ve forgot more about baseball in the last 5 minutes than you have ever known
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Sup Pesky?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Me too, ready for us to fail and rebuild for next year when we have money to spend.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
I can see having a rooting interest in your team failing
if they aren’t a contending team. It’s the equivalent of trying to get the number one pick in the NFL draft, with Andrew Luck ready for the taking. However, this team IS a contending team, that DOES have WS aspirations. Wanting them to fail puts you in the same boat with those that quit on last years team in the last few weeks.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
We aren't wanting them to fail
We realize we have no pitching and pathetic roster construction. This team is hopeless.
Everything Must Go.
I don't want them to fail.
And I didn’t quit on them last season.
However, I don’t think this is a contending team as currently constructed. Either they need to add a pitcher, or – sadly – we’ll get to put your hypothesis to the test.
And we’ll see which of us ends up being right.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Get off your high horse
I don’t want them to fail, I’m looking at this team and not seeing a contender for the playoffs. That doesn’t make me less of a fan than you. Blindly saying the team is going to compete every year and agreeing with everything the FO had done doesn’t make you Superfan, it makes you a tool.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
No, a tool would be
someone that thinks a team that played .700 ball over a 100 game stretch, and needed an epic collapse to miss the playoffs last year will not be a contending team this year.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
You do realize that the pitchers that got us a bunch of those wins...
… aren’t on the team, nor adequately replaced as of today, right?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Of course you know, he may just not want to be here
And it’s not like he doesn’t have reason.
Also, he has Boras, who, if we won’t pay him for 2011 will find another team that will if 2012 isn’t up to that par.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Ellsbury doesnt want to be in boston
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Actually if Ellsbury repeats 2011
Then he brings back even more – great. He’s a Boras client, would bring back a boat load of prospects and in the grand scheme of things is still just one player so you at least consider it
Even if he's in his last year
you don’t trade your best player if you have a chance at winning a championship, and Ellsbury probably will resign
this team has become the mid 2000 MFY's
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
And the Red Sox since 1918
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
The Rangers?
What about the Red Sox of the late 80s and all of the 90s?
I thought we’d finally figured it out in the 2000s, but the current team is making me wonder.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
You can win with offense and defense
But it’s easier to win with good pitching and bad defense then it is with bad pitching and good defense.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 28, 2012 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
Substitute "offense" for "defense" in these statements.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 28, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
I think either of them is true though.
Good pitching can make up for bad defense, at times, too.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Disagree.
Pitching is most important.
Find me the team that’s won the World Series recently without a solid rotation.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
The 1987 Twins
Starters record 48-48, with all but one starter sporting an ERA under 4(Viola).
Also, the 2006 Cardinals.
Starters record 57-50, with all but two starters sporting an ERA over 5, and only one with an ERA under 4(Carpenter).
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
*
EDIT
all but two starters sporting an ERA under5,
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
Nicely done.
Doesn’t the idea that only once in the last… let me do the math… oh… fine, I’ll count the Cardinals too.
So two teams since 1987… 24 seasons. Those do not look like good odds to me.
How far back from 1987 do we have to go to find the third?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
How about the 2000 Yankees
Starters record 55-51, with one starter sporting an ERA under 4.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
2000 Yankees
did not have the 2012 Rays and 2012 Yankees in their division. And, for that matter, weren’t that good of a team.
Everything Must Go.
They were also playing in an elevated run environment.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
I was thinking that two of these examples were in the Steroid Era...
… I mean, 1987 was the “juiced ball” year that even Boggs crushed HRs.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Clemens, Petitte, Cone, Orlando Hernandez and Denny Neagle...
Wow… only one with an ERA under 4??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Ells won't be back
Also this
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Crawford might actually make up some of that value if he played CF
I agree that Ells is our best chip, we could start a veritable bidding war in July if we wanted to, we’re talking Colon to the Expos type of haul here.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
would love to see Carl in CF
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I'd be on board with this
Crawford would cover CF for the near future and we’ve got guys coming up that can be slotted into Fenway’s small LF. Ship Ells off for the re-load
When they went out and signed Carl
I felt he would eventually be slotted into CF
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
He should have been from the start
He’d have been less of a disappointment there, and Ellsbury would have caught that ball.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
Then fire Cherington and have Henry come out and say he was against the move all along
In order to try to capture the goodwill of the fanbase. Wait, that sounds familiar…
Great post
Great points by BZ as well
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
A rare compliment from Sandy
I can hang my head high today.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:48 PM EST up reply actions
My guess is
if we sign Oswalt or Jackson we win the division, if we don’t it will be very close, why do people want to punt?
Again, are you not reading?
I want to preface this article by stating that if we are less than 5 games back in late July, then the statements put forward in this article do not apply.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Of course he's not reading.
He’s got projection systems.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Which totally projected the Sox winning the 2011 World Series.
Oh, my kingdom for a #4 pitcher…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Blowing it up can get you pitchers 4-10
at the cost of the 2012 season.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:49 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I'm sure we'd get some value back...
I doubt we double the rotation, though.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Depends on who we trade
and who we want back.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Well
I dont agree with your premise. Every thing in life is about risk management.
The two teams in sports history who always pay for players are the Yankees and Lakers, one has 28 WS titles the other has 17 Championships. 1st and 2nd in their respective league’s history. I think I will stick with history here. Lakers are $35 million over the cap and the Yankees are close to 80 million into the penalty, neither harps on FA who dont pan out. They adjust and move on. Do you think the Lakers care if Steve Blake’s 5 million was wasted, Eff no they tried to get Chris Paul instead, potentially adding more payroll to the roster and now they are trying to get Dwight Howard who will cost them a FORTUNE.
Choosing to abstain from the FA market bc you are scared that some player will under perform is not a very successful strategy, not to mention that rebuilding, after the new CBA, will be quite different than prior seasons. FAs are now more important than ever. You talk about this time in the mid 2000s were the Sox brought up all these prospects, but fail to realize that some of those players were only attained bc the draft was flawed and the Red Sox, like the Yankees, overpaid for draft picks who held out for more money and dropped in the draft as well as overpaying for slot. In addition, you forget that spending like drunken sailors on holiday has assured teams like the Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies the ability to get foreign players. They blanket the Caribbean and South America with money signing anyone with potential, a tactic that many teams do not have the coin to copy.
I wish people would start getting behind this team. Its as if you guys have decided to give up before the Sox play a game. Remember the Cardinals won the WS, not the Yankees or Rangers. The Giants won the year before. Both teams have a heavy amount of FAs on their teams, some that didnt work out… cough, cough Aaron Rowand.
Carl Crawford isnt going anywhere, so people should start cheering for him and not try and run him out of town, bc I guarantee if he does get moved, he will come back and kick the Red Sox asses for the next decade. So foolish, eating money on a 5 tool player after one season bc your Theo Epstein/moneyball guide book says that he is not ideal for Fenway.
I don't want the Red Sox to be the MFY
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
They do not make the $ the MFY do
they cannot operate that way, see what happens when they try?
The winter from hell
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
See this is really about the Yankees, not the Red Sox
you dont want to be the Yankees, you would rather lose than be in the same conversation as NY. How very New England of you.
Something tells me if the 2012 Red Sox win the WS, you will be right there cheering at the parade.
yes I will
and be happy I was wrong, but you know what?
they will not win the WS as they are built right now
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
thanks Nostradamus
nobody picked the Giants in 2010, nobody picked the Cardinals after Wainwright, nobody picked the 2004 Sox when down 3-0
nobody picked Pittsburgh to win last year either
and they didn’t
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
um, the same one you were making
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
my point was, that it's very hard to project the WS
and writing off a team as talented as the Sox is just stupid
not writing them off
im writing them off as they are currently constructed
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Calling Sandy dumb might be the stupidest thing I've ever seen
he is very rarely wrong, and has called just about every major event in Red Sox history since I’ve been here.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
What I was saying
is you don’t write off a team that talented. Everybody wrote off the Cardinals and Giants, and they won. Everybody wrote off the Sox after being down 3-0, and they won
Nobody gives a shit what you are saying
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
so because someone says
the Red Sox don’t have a chance. I should totally believe what they say and sell off all my good players. I guess the Red Sox should’ve done that after 2006, and not try to win the WS right because they missed the playoffs the year before.
they sold off/cut losses shortly after 2004
a lot of people forget
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
And we were right to do it too
imagine if we had signed Pedro to the deal he wanted, wave goodbye to 2007.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
So if the front office trades off
Ellsbury, I’ll know there’s a reason for it, but before they do, I see no reason
What has Cherington done to earn anyone's trust?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
So Tony Reagins deserved respect?
Just stop, you’re too silly.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Good for you buddy
Enjoy 60 year old Vernon Wells.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
I think I'm smarter than some MLB GMs
If you can explain to me how taking Vernon Wells AND his contract was in anyway a smart move go for it, until then yeah, I’m sure as hell not going to go and say I’m dumber than them. Or that paying Jayson Werth that much was remotely a good idea.
Though if you think that Tony Reagins was smarter than yourself, you have some serious self esteem issues.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Because I live in a country
That praise Jobu doesn’t force me to do what I might be best at, rather than what I wish to do. I did not wish to become a baseball GM, I wished to become a meteorologist, that is the schooling I pursued and that’s what I am today proudly. I don’t think not being something limits you from being smarter than those doing it, I’m not a beggar or a CEO, but I’d imagine there are some I’m smarter than.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
are you really a weatherman rogue!?
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Yeah, just not a TV weatherman
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
that's fantastic
are you ever going to be on tv?
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Probably not
It’s a whole ‘nother type of training aside from what I went though, I did mainly forecasting and climate/ozone research, TV folk do forecasting and communications. Plus I can’t compete with the beautiful girls being pear shaped and all. I’d never stand a chance.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
that would be the way you snatch em up though
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Rogue knows quite a bit, more than you
for sure based on what you type here.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
That was an insanely dumb trade
I do think I am smarter than some MLB GMs in evaluating players. But I think all MLB GMs know so much about money, and how to exploit the stuff about money. Like Brian Sabean, Brian Sabean uses stuff like RBIs, but he knows so much about how to exploit the mlb rules, and is a good drafter, so I think I can evaluate players better than Sabean or Reagins, but overall, I don’t think I’m smarter. I think Ben Cherington is smarter than us both, not just about money, but player evaluation too.
Well...
… why aren’t you working in player development in a front office then, given that the thesis is Smarter = Must Have That Job.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
There are some GMs
Who I do not think I am smarter then, Theo or Beane off the top of my head.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
AA, Friedman, Daniels, Towers, Hoyer to name a few
We’re all definitely smarter than Reagans, GMDM, and Cherington.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 8:19 PM EST up reply actions
then maybe you should not visit
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Why haven't you?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Rogue is smarter than Reagins...
I’m smarter than Reagins, you’re smarter than Reagins, my cat is much smarter than Reagins.
So, clearly, we can discard the smart = GM nonsense.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think he's smarter than Reagans
I don’t think he’s smarter than Minaya.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
Hey! That's crossing the line!
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
Damn... you beat me to the Tony Reagins comment...
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
The difference is between trusting the FO
And objectively evaluating the talent on each team. As I said, I’m not writing off this season, but I do think we will need a couple breaks to catch the Rays/MFY this year.
but that's not the scenario
they tried to win with Pedro and let him go via free agency, but they used all the years. If they traded Pedro like you want to do with Ellsbury, they wouldn’t win the 2004 world series
Whoop de shit.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
The Cards and Giants really WEREN'T that talented, though
At least compared to the other teams in the playoffs. The playoffs are obviously crapshoots.
agreed, but this team as currently constructed
wont get in
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
This, the regular season is not a crapshoot
the best teams make it in, and this is not one of the best teams.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I apologize for calling you a tink
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
yes, yes it is you fucking tink
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
7
Not for nothing, but if you say get behind the team, helps to know how many rings we have.
1903, 1912, 1914, 1915, 1918, 2004, 2007
Everything Must Go.
Thank you, sir.
I knew that felt wrong when I saw it.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I agree that if we're far back in July we should be sellers, especially in regards to our relievers
A lot will depend on, for example, the health and performance of Youk vs. the health and performance of Middlebrooks (and I am not high at all on WMB). If we’re still looking to compete in 2013, as I expect we would be, it might be worthwhile to hang onto Youk if it looks like WMB will not be the heir apparent at 3B.
I'm in between on WMB
I think if necessary he could be an adequate placeholder until Bogearts/Cecchini are ready.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
He just reminds me a lot of Lars
A huge, BABIP-fueled year at double A that gets everyone excited, followed up by a lot of mediocrity at AAA. If he does end up being an adequate placeholder I believe it would be almost purely on the virtue of his defense, but he might not crack a .300 OBP.
More incentive to go get Chase Headley :D
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't send that much
maybe WMB and Wilson.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
If I was Ben C
We wouldn’t be having this discussion.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
If you were...
… would you sign some muthaf@#king starters?
If so, you have my vote.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
If I was
I’d have told Theo “Fuck no” when he tried to negotiate with Crawford.
I’d also have convinced him to go after Holliday instead of Lackey, so the issue never would have presented itself.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
* swoon *
The Year of Extreme Opinions
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I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
knew it was coming
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Oh come on
I’ve been relatively quiet on that front all winter.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:19 PM EST up reply actions
lets press the pause button on trading youk simply because
his value right now is probably the worst its been in a few years. why sell low? if you want to trade him thats one thing, but you have to trade him at a point when we can get good value in return. coming off a sub par season (by his standards) and an injury, we won’t get a good deal in return.
unless you think that hes only going to perform worse from this point on (which i dont) than it wouldnt be very prudent to deal him now
You mean like in July, when I said we should be making all these moves?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
I vote you edit the piece
Bold the first sentence and then every other line should be that same sentence again, clearly it’s being overlooked.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
i guess i misunderstood
i thought you meant “if we’re still in it in july than dont punt” rather than “wait till july and if we are out of it then punt.” my fault.
to be fair though the title implies that you are in favor of punting the season now.
That's probably true, the title is a little misleading.
But the intent of this piece is to talk about trades we make in July. I don’t think we can even trade Papi right now.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
That ought to have fixed it.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
Like how we traded Lowrie at his peak va... oh, wait.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
[Scans thread for robert57, leaves disappointed]
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
HA HA HA!
Wait… where has he gone? Did he get banned, or go back to WEEI?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I made him cry.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
So ummm subject change - why did the Sox trade Scutaro?
Oh yeah, for dumping salary to purchase a free agent pitcher – Cherington & Co need to sign one to solidify the Sox chances of competing in the AL East or come July this thread will be extremely popular & the LoneDavid will be spot on – just my humble opinion – this team does not have enough starters to win 95 games
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
If we don't sign a starter I'll repost this in July
I’ve bookmarked it already.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
I guess the only other possibility would be this
The Sox find themselves five games out in July, in good health and Dic-k returns and a team wants to trade a starter who will be a free agent…then it will be decision time. But, right now Sandy is right – the Sox do not have depth on paper with the current starters to compete in the Al East or against Texas or the Angels
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Or the Tigers
that’s sort of the point of this post, signing some MLB cast offs as depth is fine if you only need 87 wins to take your division, but if you’re trying to win the whole fucking thing, you need young guys in your minors like the Sox had in 2004 and 2007, we don’t have that right now so we don’t really have a shot.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
I'd probably just pencil in the Tigs are division champs at this point
I can’t see Cleveland catching up.
+1 (I failed to mention those guys!)
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
We have plenty of starters...
… just not many good starters.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 28, 2012 9:00 PM EST up reply actions
How about dumpster diving?
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
You mean we haven't been dumpster diving?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
I figure any of these guys below are better than 2011 Lackey
even if their arms fall off
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
The problem with that is
Lackey got really lucky in terms of run support, so the Sox actually won a lot of his starts. His replacement might not be as lucky.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 6:50 PM EST up reply actions
Webb, Young, Garland, Penny, Vazquez, Hernandez, Harden
I mean if Ben C is intent on buying low with the hopes of reward maybe these yahoos can be had on the cheap?
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Always thought Brad Penny would be a dominate closer
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I don't care for Miller, but
I’d let him have a shot as a loogy until Hill takes that spot forever.
Although, Morales did pretty well last season, not sure I’d call him a typical loogy.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I think Miller would be good in an Aceves-type role
not as good as Ace, but better than trying to make Bard go three innings.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 8:20 PM EST up reply actions
Well Put, TLD
Keep on rocking.
Sell off our valuable assets, especially if we can rid ourselves of some deadwood. If we can somehow, someway, magically dump Crawford’s contract, I see our future a being very bright.
Everything Must Go.
My first thought is...
moving Bailey, Melancon and/or Bard would effect us in 2013 and beyond, unlike what you’re saying up there.
Depends on who we get in return, I wouldn't move all three of them.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
After seeing what the rays did to the Sox last September....
You would be willing to “punt” the rest of the season if the Sox are down by 5 games in late July? Wow, just wow.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 9:10 PM EST reply actions
I didn't expect you to agree with me
You tend to disagree with me just for the sake of disagreeing.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:10 PM EST up reply actions
I like to take opposing viewpoints,
but in this case I just disagree with you. Five games is FAR from insurmountable with that much time left in the season.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 9:13 PM EST up reply actions
5 games back in July is definitely not time to give up,
but still an interesting hypothetical.
PESKY!!
Good to see you… and on this thread, that seems to have inspired some dissent!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Hardly
there are a few people still tightly gripping their rose-tinted glasses, but I think for the most part people have been pretty cook about this post.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
Ha ha ha!
Well, if I don’t have the rose colored glasses on, given my typical outlook on life and the Sox in general… I just have to wonder what kind of happy pills these folks are taking!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Alooooooooooooooooooooha!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I doubt you'll be around that long.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Though, I am sure we'll all be here and happy to see the team succeed.
Hate to say it… but Bososx13 made a faulty argument before… that we’re all naysayers due to 2011… it isn’t just the 2011 collapse, but also the injury bug of 2010 (and that bit again in 2011) that puts us two years showing that depth is a real need.
I just don’t see the depth.
I’ll be the first in line cheering if we win, and I’ll be on OTM to do it. I’d be happy to be wrong. I’d just be happier with a #4 starter signed before ST.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I definitely agree that signing a starter would be good
I think if we sign an Oswalt or a Jackson we win the division, I think if we don’t we win the WC or barely miss the playoffs.
Pretty sure Oswalt is heading to St. Louis...
… unless the ESPN reports that it is pending his physical are completely off base.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I'd own it if I were wrong
but I don’t see a competing team here.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions
I'll be here
;)
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Please don't be
I find your trollishness distasteful.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
As much as I find your
negativity distasteful. Do the Red Sox ever do anything right, in your mind? I’m going to go out on a limb, and say you weren’t a Sox fan pre 2000.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 28, 2012 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
You would be wrong
I suppose it shouldn’t hurt that much, you’re wrong a lot.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 10:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah... you don't know this place very well
Or, I’m guessing, the 2012 Boston Red Sox.
Everything Must Go.
Don't you fucking dare call any single one of us a hater you little snot.
We all love the team just as much as you and will be HAPPY to be proven wrong by the team. Pardon the shit out of us while we objectively rate a GM that hasn’t done diddly frickin squat to improve the roster on a team that collapsed the year before.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
by Rogue Nine on Jan 28, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Bitch, please...
… we all hope the Sox win the World Series. Some of us just feel less than optimistic about the moves the Sox have made, with good reason. If the Sox do win, I’m pretty sure we’ll all be here – like we always have been. I’m also pretty sure that when someone attempts to call out people who had justifiable concerns about the offseason when and if the Sox do win, they’ll get told to fuck off – and rightfully so.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 29, 2012 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
As much as people don't like it
The Red Sox are trying to win now. They are not trading away Bailey when they just traded for him, they are not trading Ellsbury or Ortiz, or Youk, and I’m happy about it because we have a legitamate shot to win the WS
Lottery numbers now douchebag.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
OK these are my projections
Tell me what you think is wrong about them. Don’t mention Crawford though, as we argue about that all the time. Critique any one of these except Crawford
C Salty
It would have been pointless to post them
There would be nothing WRONG with them until the end of the season. But going back and looking at projections from last year and how they turned out, they’d probably end up being just as worthless.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Okay here are the starter ERA-'s of World series winning teams the last 10 years.
2011 Cardinals 103
2010 Giants 90
2009 Yankees 97
2008 Phillies 97
2007 Red Sox 90
2006 Cardinals 110 (wow!)
2005 White Sox 84
2004 Red Sox 91
2003 Marlins 96
2002 Angels 90
The average is 95.
wRC+s of World series winning teams
2011 Cardinals 111
2010 Giants 95
2009 Yankees 117
2008 Phillies 99(wow, I remembered them as a good offensive team)
2007 Red Sox 110
2006 Cardinals 97(how did they win the world series again?)
2005 White Sox 94
2004 Red Sox 120
2003 Marlins 99
2002 Angels 96
The Average is 104.
The Red Sox in 2011’s ERA- was 105 and their wRC+ was 120.
Now the Red Sox ERA- was higher than anyone but the 2006 Cardinals, BUT their wRC+ was tied for the highest of anyone.
2011 Red Sox ERA- with Lackey, Miller, Weiland, and Wakefield removed is 85.
Now that is assuming you have an average pitcher. Doing a quick ERA projection of Oswalt(3.38) and using Clay Davenport’s for Bard(4.08)both seem reasonable the Red Sox have an ERA- of 87. That’s why I’ve been pushing for Oswalt. Now let’s say they don’t sign Oswalt and Padilla/Cook/Aceves/whoever is a replacement level starter. That’s a 5.14 ERA, the Red Sox have an ERA- of 95. If you think Bard will be a replacement level starter too.(which I don’t) the Red Sox have an ERA- of 99. Do you see why I’ve been saying this team has a shot at the WS? Do you see how much Lackey, Weiland, Miller, and Wakefield hurt them?
Except that in 2011, the projections that you are using today...
… predicted better performances from Lackey and Dice K, and we ended up not getting them. We had more depth in Wakefield, Doubront, Weiland, Miller, Aceves (in theory, he was considered for a SP role), and even Millwood at AAA.
The projections you are using at the top of this piece for wins also predicted a Red Sox team that would win the World Series in 2011, never mind the AL East. Those projections suggested them as possibly the best team of all time.
Considering that we’re working off pretty old news now that Oswalt isn’t coming to Boston, it’s probably not worth plugging him in as our #4 starter anymore (no matter how much I wanted that to happen), and who cares what the projections for Bard are (it’s a roll of the dice, and I’d love to see it work out… but there are equal chances it doesn’t).
Now, add in that one of the starters projected for 2011 success was Buchholz, and he had a major back injury; and Josh Beckett has had his fair share as well. So… what happens if we don’t get the lucky breaks in 2012 that the projections suggest we shouldn’t need? If anything, 2010 and 2011 have shown us we need more depth, not less.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
This was just 2011 season stats
with projections for Bard and Oswalt, then I showed that even if you replaced them both with replacement level pitchers, the Red Sox starters would still have an above average ERA-.
However, in the AL East, our pitching wasn't good enough to get into the playoffs in 2011.
And looking at your list… none of the World Series winners with ERA-’s of over 99 came from the AL East (Yankees were closest with a 97) or wRC+ under 100 (with the 2007 Red Sox 110 as the lowest).
It’s hard to compare the 2006 Cardinals (or 2011 Cardinals) path to their World Series wins with Boston’s. Simply put, we have a tougher division to win and in 2006, we had a better record than the Cardinals and missed the playoffs completely. They went 83-76 for a .516 win percentage, and then won the World Series. Last year, we had an identical record… they got in, we missed it… they win. So it’s not a fair comparison.
It is harder for us to get into the playoffs, which is all that matters here.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Our pitching wasn't good enough
when we had a 105 ERA- from starters, with a 99, it definitely would’ve been good enough, and 99 is assuming Bard is a replacement level starter and they don’t sign anyone.
Just for fun... since we assume replacement level players...
How did Lackey’s 2011 stack up against a replacement level player?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
And how do the models account for his .500 record?
And how easy does that make him replaced?
…I would add.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
A replacement level player is
a 5.14 ERA. Lackey had a 6.41 ERA. Together, Lackey, Miller, Weiland, and Wakefield together were so bad they gave us 405 innings of 5.87 ERA ball. 5.87 ERA ball is 3 wins. If we just used replacement level starters. Some random minor league guy. LIKE THE GUYS WE’RE SIGNING. Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, John Maine whoever, we’d have made the playoffs and won 93 games. Padilla is probably even better than a replacement level starter. Rogue Nine, the run support will go to someone else
And here you've proved my point...
You keep going on and on and on that all we have to do is replace Lackey, Miiller, Weiland and Wakefield with “replacement level starters.”
See… because those four guys failed to perform even at a “replacement level”… so this is the fear that all of us have right now. This year, our “replacement level” will be the Bard experiment, and guys like Padilla/Cook/Silva or even your choice, Aceves (further weakening our bullpen).
There is no guarantee that we even get replacement level production from the guys in the #4 and #5 spot, which is exactly what happened to us in 2011. And THIS is why we’re all saying we don’t have a shot unless we add another legit arm to this rotation.
Do you see the point now??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
i think you (and youre not alone)
are grading the sox on a curve compared to everyone else. cant you poke holes in everyones starting rotation especially in the 4/5 spots?
Not really for the vast majority of contenders.
The Tigers have Porcello #4 and Oliver/Turner #5, the Angels have various good pitchers throughout their rotation. Texas has 6 viable starters and so does TB, The only team with a problem at #5 is the Yanks, and I like their chances of getting one good starter out of their garbage bin than I like our chances of getting two.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2012 8:34 AM EST up reply actions
Yep
And similar in the National League too. Worley has turned out well for Philly and should be fine stepping in at #4, St. Louis is getting Wainright back and they could still end up with Oswalt at #5, Arizona has 4 very good starters that are under the age of 26 (i think), Atlanta has at least 5-6 starters that are likely to contribute, SF and Cincy have at least four each that are likely to be fine.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 30, 2012 9:15 AM EST up reply actions
ya but i could say
fisters had one good year you dont know if hes going to repeat his performance, sherzer struggled and had a 1.35 whip last year is he really a 2 or 3 starter?
the angels have ervin santana at number 4 whos been really inconsistent his whole career and no one at the 5
the rangers just lost cj wilson and have no idea how yu darvish will actually perform. does colby lewis, derek holland, darvish harrison, and maybe feliz scare you at all? if you think feliz will be a good starter dont you think bard will be too?
yanks: garcia was a total fluke last year im not sure he’ll even make the team. kuroda and pineda are moving from la and seattle to yankee stadium i dont think thats going to work out well for them. theres a pretty decent history of big pitching acquisitions not playing well in NY. and then they still have AJ lying around.
so it sounds like poking holes but thats what i feel like these threads are doing with the sox rotation.
not saying i believe all that
just saying those are holes you can be pessimistic about if youre a fan of any of those teams
Except that those are poking much bigger holes than you have to in Boston...
In Boston, you’ve got two of your top three with injury history that has to give pause: Beckett and now Buchholz back injury, with Lester anchoring them. T
he Angels have Weaver, Haren and Wilson, which looks like a much more solid front three…
Behind them, at #4 we have the Bard experiment, a guy that hasn’t started a game in more than five years. I know there have been other relievers converted successfully, but do you have another example of one that has done well after that long a layoff? Earvin Santana at #4 is probably a better situation than us converting Bard.
Finally, we have TPM: as Dalton (I think?) calls it: Terrible Pitcher Medley, at #5. None of those pitchers has had success at the Major League level in recent years, and it is rare (Colon/Garcia) that those guys recover to pitch well.
We don’t even have a Fister that you can question whether he’d repeat his 2011 performance (that was actually 2011 Buchholz, who didn’t).
So, I do realize I’m being harsh on where we stand, and maybe I’m poking holes… but if 2011 taught us anything, it’s that the team had pretty rosy expectations for a deep rotation that never materialized.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I don't think that was my term but
I don’t mind taking credit, as it is an accurate term for what we’re currently looking at.
Also, you are not being harsh on the subject…we aren’t poking holes. We just aren’t covering them up with wistful dreams of an Aaron Cook return to mediocre-ness. I don’t see how people can look at Pineda and Kuroda and warn of them not translating to the AL East but have hope for Cook, Silva and Padilla figuring it out.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 30, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I was thinking that too after the fact.
My point is the rosy projections folks are making suggest that we can replace #4 and #5 with “replacement level” performance… except that last year, guys that would have been expected to outperform replacement level were worse than that.
Frankly, I’d rather have pre-2011 Lackey (where we had hopes that he’d continue his late 2010 performance), the potential of Miller to be the next Randy Johnson (people were making that argument), Wakefield as a emergency starter, and Doubront and Weiland potentially coming up as “rookie” starters and injecting the rotation with a Lester/Buchholz type young pitching performance.
I’m comparing 2012 to where we were this time 2011, since we all know how that turned out. I’d still rather be back there, vs. hoping that Bard pans out (and I really really hope he does, from the value he adds as a starter vs. reliever and the cost of starting pitching), and an amazing return to form from one of those other guys.
I mean… do we even have the young guys we think will contribute to the rotation in 2012?? Doubront on anyone’s list? Maybe Tazawa?? I mean, we have so much less than we had last year.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Fister's generally been solid, and moving from Safeco to Comerica isn't a big deal
The Angels have three aces and Santana who fluctuates from solid starter to ace level player, not from mediocre to shit.
Feliz started in the minors, unlike Bard, so it’s not unreasonable to expect he could transition back. However, no, I don’t think he’ll be great. They can move Feldman or Ogando back to being a starter though.
The Yanks might see some regression from Pineda and Kuroda, but they still have Nova, Hughes, Burnett, Banuelos, Betances, and Garcia ready to go. We have what? Padilla/Cook/Maine?
You can poke holes in their rotations, it’s true, but their pitching situations are far more stable than ours are.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2012 9:29 AM EST up reply actions
I think its a little early to be selling on Crawford
one bad year does not a bust make. the red sox stand to be a team that can benefit from fim returning to his old form
This is what I've been saying the whole time
yet people keep flaming me for it and saying Crawford wil always be as terrible as last year because last year was his first year in Fenway park.
Unless you can explain
Exactly what happened to Crawford and why it wasn’t predicted, I can’t buy into anything that says he can just turn it around. Previous season averages flew out the jobudamned window as he lost 7.4 WAR from the season before, SEVEN POINT FOUR war! Without pouring over fangraphs, I’d have to imagine that’s the single largest one season drop off, that actually happened to him.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Well one year,
Babe Ruth had a 7.7 WAR dropoff, I think he did OK in his career. But in the last 10 years Barry Bonds 2004-2005 -11.2, then he rebounded and had two good seasons. Scott Rolen 2004-2005, -7.9, then he came back and had a 5.6 WAR season, and Adrian Beltre 2004-2005(they were all 2004-2005 what a coincedence) who had a few bad years which really weren’t that bad because of his defense and the park, and is now a star. So 3 players in the last 10 years, who all rebounded, and Babe ruth. I think he just had a bad season and will rebound.
How about when they played more than 100 games?
If you don’t play you can’t accrue value, Bonds played 14 games that season, funny thing was, he was BETTER than Crawford’s entire 2011. Rolen played 56. Beltre is the only one who had a case of those three, but really the 9.9 WAR was the outlier in his career numbers, and 2.4 at least made him a tolerable player. If those are the only three, than Crawford was the only player in the last decade to go from having great seasons to being nearly worthless in the course of an offseason while playing the vast majority of the season. There is nothing in those three that suggest a precedent for Crawford.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
You just gave examples from
2 of the 3 greatest hitters in recorded history. Do you really think that’s indicative? What about from players with his skillset?
Everything Must Go.
Well shoot if Babe Ruth did then there you go.
Nevermind the fact that the pre-drop off year was one of the best statistical seasons EVER and the year he dropped off he was suspended for a month and a half and only played 110 games. Of course he is going to bounce back after playing 40% more games. The thing is with Bonds and the reason why there is zero correlation to Carl Crawford is that Bonds was walked 23-27% of the time when he was 42 years old. CC for his career is just a bit of 5%. They are different players, and play different styles. Rolen?
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 29, 2012 6:01 PM EST up reply actions
Ok
I was going to say…I did a little double take when I saw his name.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 29, 2012 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Okay, now I agree with you on this point too.
It is way too early to give up on Carl, even if there are some warning signs that this may be a terrifically bad deal. I hope, for our sake, that we see a bounce back in 2012… and that it happens early, like in Apr… oh, right… he’s likely to miss all of April.
Seriously, though, I do think he’s a 5 tool player that should be a valuable piece for this team over the next several years. I think he’ll likely end up regarded the way Drew is today, but for different reasons: not worth the contract, but a contributor that helped us get a World Series ring (or two or three…)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Calm down. The season hasn’t started. No need to “punt” the season
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Marisa, did you even read the post?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 4:56 PM EST up reply actions
I really don't know what more you could have done.
America is clearly going down the toilet with the rampant stupidity this entire thread.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
TLD, one question
Why do you want to trade everyone away today? You should’ve written this as a hypothetical if we’re, oh, say 5+ games out in July.
Everything Must Go.
5+ games out near the end of July
YOU STILL DON’T PUNT THE SEASON.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 29, 2012 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
So this guy...
Really was king of the world?!
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
SEAN O BECOMES A MFY FAN, AND COMMENTS EXCLUSIVELY AT PINSTRIPE ALLEY
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 29, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
You want to trade everyone
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jan 29, 2012 5:53 PM EST up reply actions
You:
The season hasn’t started.
Him:
I want to preface this article by stating that if we are less than 5 games back in late July, then the statements put forward in this article do not apply. All moves made in this article would be made near the trading deadline.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
what blows my mind
is not scrolling up to the article and reading the first, bolded, line after being called out.
Everything Must Go.
What blows my mind is
Is that it’s taken me four minutes of Hot Chelle Rae to realize I had flipped to the Pro Bowl and another whole minute to question to question the rest of my life decisions. 30 Rock here we come.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
I spent most of the day playing Skyrim
the fences in the game don’t have enough money, I think I’ve pickpocketed every single NPC in the game, my house in Whiterun is overflowing with magic rings.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2012 7:59 PM EST up reply actions
I wanted to play Skyrim
But the controller was out of juice, its charging now. I do think the merchants need more money, a single cave dive and I have to sell to three different people to get rid of it all.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
pc = mods
Looking forward to when I get Skyrim. Just finished Red Faction Guerrilla today, and started Homefront. Which is fine, for what it is.
Everything Must Go.
There's only really one mod, the other's are just jokes
Pardon me while I snap into a Slim Jim.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
I just assumed when I saw the title...
… that TLD was talking about Ben Cherington punting on this season.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 30, 2012 12:15 AM EST up reply actions
Provocative title sure to incite.
Boring disclaimer to start article.
Long read …. read … read …
Reasonable take, assuming being >5 games back in July is ‘out of reach’ and reason to punt.
Lame if you don’t agree with that premise.
Predictable thread wars between same old folks.
Good stuff!
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Sorry you were forced to read it.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 30, 2012 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think that's what he was saying at all.
I think he was just doing a summation in a light tone…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
At least he actually read the disclaimer.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
If so,
I certainly apologize.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 30, 2012 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I'll admit... I'm giving him a little leeway here...
… it could have been a snarky comment too. So hard to read tone and intent in a brief comment.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah.
I was going off my agitation rather than what his comment was. I have no problem apologizing to him.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 30, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
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