Buster Olney (ESPN) reports on Sox offers to Oswalt and Jackson
by dsharp on Jan 26, 2012 1:45 PM EST
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He says the Oswalt offer is about 5M, but Karl Ravitch has reported Oswalt is deciding between Texas and St. Louis. The Cards had offered a little less than 5M previously. As for Jackson, he thinks the offer is around 7M or 8M, but that both pitchers may be afraid of the AL East. He also indicated Cherington is willing to negotiate in a patient and conservative style.
He stupidly says the pitchers may be afraid to come to Boston because three of the top six offenses in baseball are in the AL East. Of course, Boston is one of the three and it is unlikely Boston pitchers will have to face Boston hitters too many times during the season!
Of course, the level of competition is high, but when you adjust the raw numbers for park and opponent strength, it should even out anyway. I think Oswalt is simply looking for a bigger offer and Jackson wants another year.
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That's cool,
but I prefer calling it E flat.
Went with D Sharp because my first name is Don.
but yeah, E flat is a lot less messy to deal with on paper.
I much prefer this to overpaying for everyone because we can.
I’d rather miss out on guys because we stuck to our guns, like Teixeira.
I agree on not overpaying
I think we can’t expect to get good players if we’ll only underpay though. There’s a line there somewhere, and I feel like offering Oswalt $5 million is just offering him a contract you know he won’t accept to make it seem like you’re trying to get someone.
Yeah, I said this elsewhere.
That’s what it feels like to me. Offer Oswalt $5 million he won’t accept, and offer Jackson more (but still less than he wants per year on a multi-year deal), and only offer him one year.
Neither accepts, and they’ll say they tried. Maybe I’m just getting cynical.
After all, if Maholm got his deal and an option for the Cubs, Oswalt is definitely worth more than that.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
On longer deals
I tend to agree. But at this point in the offseason I don’t think an extra 2-3 million on a one year deal would be a big deal. Not as much as spending 9 figures on a guy like Teixeira and being stuck.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 26, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
Especially if the alternative is that he takes $5 million with Saint Louis instead.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Where he doesn't even know if he has a rotation spot.
If he does that, I am assuming they are going to trade a pitcher or something because he will rebuild no value out of the bullpen. Or they just put Westbrook in the pen for an $8.5 million reliever.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 26, 2012 7:02 PM EST up reply actions
well, I mean, Oswalt is way better than Westbrook
I doubt they’d keep Westbrook in the rotation over Oswalt just because he’s making $8.5 million
unfortunately this is where the tax threshold issue comes into play
in a vacuum, I’d agree that spending extra on a one-year deal is no big deal. But if we go over the threshold, then that affects the tax penalties down the road.
I expect that should not be a deal killer for the Sox, but certainly they’ll probably start these negotiations with a goal of staying as low as possible.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Yeah good point
I guess I should have qualified my statement by adding that alot of reports have us going over it regardless for this particular year. If that extra $2-3 million puts them over the CBT than I can certainly see the reluctance. Especially with the advantages that come from being able to get under the CBT for one year under the new CBA.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 27, 2012 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
Speier has us over the CBT already
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
everyone does, every single reporter says we are over
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Not everyone...
There was an article posted here on OTM that suggested we were only around $170 million, and pointed out that we were at $164 million this time last year, and still went over. There are other sources that suggest we’re still under.
I agree if we’re going over, we should pay the extra $2-$3 million to get the pitcher we need. If that’s the difference between staying under, I suppose I could see the argument to stay under. I just don’t think we’re going to.
Again… I look at the Scutaro deal with skeptical eyes… if we’re going over, don’t believe in Aviles as the starting SS, why did we dump his salary again? If we really think we can get under for 2012, are we trying to?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
MLBNetwork said we were around $148mill
But I don’t really trust them.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 27, 2012 11:13 PM EST up reply actions
Here is Speier's article
He breaks down all the math:
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
fantastic article
be Speier, who is excellent
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I think you misunderstood what you read on OTM
Nothing on this site, which has been based on Speier anyways, has contradicted the fact that the team is currently on path to exceed the CBT threshold without any further acquisitions.
Here's Marc's article, stating we're at $170 million right now.
He does predict we will go over it, but the suggestion is still there that we’re “under” at the moment, and were under on Opening Day in 2011 (but ultimately went over).
http://www.overthemonster.com/2012/1/26/2737484/red-sox-updated-payroll-figures
We’re on a path to exceed, sure. Marc says that… however, we are currently at $170 million, and just made a move to shed salary, so… I’m skeptical.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
And to clarify... I was disputing Gizmo's statement that "we are over"...
… at the moment, what I read, says we are not over. Right now.
Do I expect us to go over? Sure. I’m just concerned about moves like dumping Scutaro’s salary, and low ball offers to Oswalt and Jackson (though ESPN says no offer was made to Jackson)…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I'm just stating evert Red Sox reporter I have read says they are already over
with no moves
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
If they are truly already over
not spending to get a reliable starting arm is flat-out @#$%ing irresponsible. And shameful.
And it makes me irate.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
He says we're at $170
But also states:
Red Sox are currently estimated, before they sign anyone else, to be at about $170 million without counting the $14 million extra spent on the medical staff, the 40-man roster, and bonuses.
So it may be that we are technically under, but with all the “other stuff” we have to pay that gets factored in at some point, puts us over already if we chose to count it now.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
There are two Speier pieces at weei.com on the budget
Marc’s link is to the shorter blog piece. The column feature is more thorough, and is highly recommended.
Since the medical expenses count against the luxury tax, the Sox are clearly already on path to pass the threshold. Marc probably could have made that clearer.
Thanks, that makes sense.
I saw the $170 million, and the $14 million “extra” and thought that money didn’t count towards the cap.
Now I stand corrected.
So… one more time… if we’re over, and currently looking for a starting SS… why dump Scutaro’s salary??
I mean, if you thought Aviles was due for a break out year, then I’m fine moving Scutaro out of his way (age, and injury history says he’s due for a down turn)… but if you dump his six million ($7.5+ hit to the cap) and then go looking for a new SS? That seems curious, right?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
For one thing, I don't think we're "currently looking for a starting SS"
I think any rumor to the contrary is just a side effect of due diligence. Clearly Scutaro was dumped to create more flexibility in the budget to acquire a starting pitcher, either now or in season. Why the team isn’t willing to pay a little extra to get Oswalt or Jackson now, I cannot comprehend.
Especially because the other rumor out there is that we haven't even made an offer to Jackson.
Maybe we’re kicking some tires on due diligence, but the rumor was we were looking for a starting SS.
I guess that’s another wait and see… if we sign or trade for a starting SS before we sign a #4 SP, though? I might finally lose it.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Rumors are typically made up by
Know-it-all beat writers and guys trying to get the earliest twitter scoop.
That's a fair point too.
However… the big rumor last week was that we were trading Scutaro to Colorado, which seemed to come out of no where… then, it was debunked as a reporter that jumped the gun, no deal.
By Monday, it was done, right?
So… color me skittish on the rumor front now… rumor had it we thought Kuroda was too expensive, and he wound up signing with the Yankees. Rumor had it we thought Maholm was a good cheap option, but Theo scooped him up.
Lots of rumors, not so much good news for the Sox lately… that’s all.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yet all that matters is what
we field starting in April….used to be that you barely knew who the team signed until the preview magazines came out in early February. Then you’d be like – Damn, we signed _______ – awesome – without knowing what went on behind the scenes – seemed better that way – or at the very least – less anxious
8 million for one year
for Oswalt isn’t overpaying.
I don’t think the Sox are really all that serious about either one.
I'm talking about a general philosophy
of having a value in mind and sticking with it, so that you don’t end up handing put Bobby Jenks deals every offseason.
The Jenks move at the time it was made was a steal
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
True...
… it’s just in hindsight that it looks almost as bad as the Carl Crawford and John Lackey deals…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I think the Jenks deal was met with more of a positive reaction
than Carl or Lackey though short years short dollars
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Would have gotten us Maholm.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 26, 2012 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
Are both of these deals possible?
or just one of the two?
Can the Sox sign both? That would be a pretty solid rotation – Buchholz, Lester, Beckett, Oswalt and Jackson. Not too shabby.
If we could add 2 starting pitchers and put Bard back in the pen
I think they are right back into discussion as one of the top 5 teams.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I saw on ESPN yesterday Buster Olney's Top 5 AL teams.
#1. Rays
#2. Yankees
#3. Rangers
4 and 5 were something like the Tigers and Angels, but I really didn’t care. Just seeing the Rays at the top of that list made me sick.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I think Matt Moore is being tremendously overrated
they’re acting like he’s the lovechild of Bob Gibson and Greg Maddux
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 26, 2012 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
He is an absolute monster
Obviously anything can happen, but…he’s never posted a K/9 below 12.75, never had a FIP above 2.83 after his first year, lowered his walk rate almost every year…
The man is, in all likelihood, going to be one of the best starting pitchers of this decade.
Well, that's not good news for the pitching starved Red Sox.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
His average K rate in
AAA was 13.5.5/9, Thas is higher than Straburg, or Lincecom.
He is young, but baseball reference concluded his closest comparable pitcher in the last 5 years with Lincecum
We'll see.
If he’s awesome, that’s cool, but the media’s talking like he’s going to be putting up Pedro’s 2000 numbers his entire career.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 26, 2012 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
That's the guy that was 1 or 2 in the Top 100 Prospects list?
He projects to be in their rotation this year.
They do seem to find young talented pitchers left and right, whereas we’ve only developed Lester, and Buchholz over a much longer developmental run…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I think they may be getting a little help in that regard.
the Yankees too, there’s no way they should be able to consistently get career years out of guys who are over 35.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 26, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
Secret performance enhancement of some kind?
Or some kind of conspiracy?
A little of both?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 26, 2012 8:39 PM EST up reply actions
Not from most of the analysis I've seen.
To be honest, I haven’t seen the Red Sox in anyone’s top ten lately.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Of the MLB or the AL?
I could see an analyst leaving them out of the top ten of the MLB…but not out of the AL. Despite all my bitching about the starting pitching depth or lack thereof…on paper I would still put them above most every team other than the five you mentioned.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 26, 2012 8:57 PM EST up reply actions
I read it as top 5 teams (implied in MLB).
I suppose it could be read either way.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I'm OK with the underdog role.
F’ the analysts.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
I spent all football season rooting for the underdog
can’t we be the unstoppable giants?
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 27, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions
Hey... GTFO!
If you’re going to root for the Giants in here, we might have words…
I’m all for your Lions putting it together and going after the NFC, but don’t be rooting against my team in a Boston sports blog.
(All in good fun, of course… except… you know, the Giants wrecking our perfect season is right up there with Buckner’s error in 1986 – just replace Buckner with Asante Samuel letting the ball go right through his hands).
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Uh... when I said unstoppable giants
I meant the big bad guys that nobody can beat and everyone roots against, not the New York Giants. I hate New York and the entire Manning family, I want Brady to shred that defense to bits and I want Wilfork to hit Eli so hard his helmet ends up in the cheap seats.
Just wait ’til next year, 9+81=Suhper Bowl.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 27, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
We were the big bad guys last year.
And look how that turned out.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 28, 2012 12:19 AM EST up reply actions
Well, I'm making my own analysis.
The best teams in the league are Texas, New York, Tampa Bay, Detroit, Boston, Anaheim, Philadelphia. The Diamondbacks and the Cardinals too. And to make it ten the Giants. There’ll be some surprises, but we still have many of the best or better players in the game.
I think Atlanta
Is right up there on the fringe and who really knows how Miami could do with them finally spending. But overall your list is pretty good.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 26, 2012 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
I would count Miami as a surprise
But Atlanta was pretty much the NL version of us in the last month of 2011 and would’ve been in the playoffs just like us but if they had won one more game. Their good young pitchers are a year older and they are replacing Lowe who had a pretty down year. Heyward and Freeman are a year older, they’ll have a full year of Michael Bourne and Uggla is unlikely to hit under .200 for the first half of the year.
To be honest I consider them the favorite for the wild card instead of the Giants. Cincy and SF will be right there, though.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 26, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
I see where you're going with the Braves...
… however, they are the mirror image of us, in my opinion. Stacked with pitching, but their offense is a little questionable.
Okay, so since I said I was seeing analysts leave us out of the top ten, and I meant in MLB, then let me take a stab at ten I think are probably better than we are, as currently constructed. (ie. one starting pitcher really does tip this to put us in the top 5, honestly).
1. Texas
2. Yankees
3. Phillies
4. Detroit
5. Anaheim
6. Tampa Bay
7. Saint Louis
8. San Francisco
9. Atlanta
10. Colorado
I debated for a while on the tenth spot there, but I think what the Rockies are doing by adding some veteran presence to a young team should even out some of the ups and downs they’ve had out there, and could put them in playoff contention.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
It's a good list
But I still have to put Arizona up there especially with adding Cahill & Breslow to the pitching staff and getting a full year of Aaron Hill who did well there as well as most likely getting rebound years from Chris Young.
I would drop Colorado out and put Zona up around 7 above of St. Louis, SF and Atlanta. All three of those teams have good rotations but honestly….Kennedy, Hudson, Cahill, Collmenter are a very good and VERY young 1-4 and will match up with the top four of those other three teams. Saunders is not gem but he had a solid year in that division and gives them as many if not more innings at #5 than we’ll get at #2 & #3.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 27, 2012 7:54 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough... I forgot about their pitching upgrades.
Still… my point is that you could argue that the Sox aren’t in the top ten, as currently constructed. When’s the last time you could say that about the Sox before the season started?
I mean, I know you could argue they belong there as well, but there are at least 10 teams you could make an honest case for being better than Boston right now.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
No there aren't.
We still have several of the best players in the league. We have the best offense and a bunch of good pitchers.
I think the argument is there.
I’m not necessarily saying we aren’t a top ten team… just saying that you could argue another ten teams, and make a convincing argument too.
I’m not convinced our starting three, even if Bard pans out, will be enough to get us to October (or is it called November now?).
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Our starting three is one reason I'm optimistic.
It’s the back end of the rotation that’s a concern.
by revived0103 on Jan 27, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions
Although I wouldn't argue if they wanted
to upgrade the first three.
by revived0103 on Jan 27, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
Ha ha ha!
All I really want right now is a #4.
I think our front three, trusting Beckett and Buchholz to be healthy (a long shot, I suppose) is solid enough.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Awesome Sauce.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
by Bloggy on Jan 26, 2012 8:08 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
So....Floyd?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
by Bloggy on Jan 26, 2012 8:09 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Well, if they are offering Oswalt $5 million...
… what kind of prospects do you think they would offer for Floyd?
My money says Lars Anderson and Expo. What, Kenny? You don’t want to pull the trigger on that deal? Well, we tried…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Maybe they prefer Floyd
but have offers out to the other two to keep them in play. Floyd stalls…amp up the offers on the other two.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
by Bloggy on Jan 26, 2012 8:31 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
If they are not limited to the tax as Ben says
and everyone has reported they will be over already, then tehy should try to expand the deal for Floyd to include A. Ramirez
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
They're limited to the tax
Any reports otherwise is bullshit.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
by Bloggy on Jan 26, 2012 9:06 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
I think they may very well go into camp
with what they have now.
Who knows, maybe Buchholz is completely healed and Bard will be more than servicable. It’s still a good team. Given the performance at the back of the rotation last year, maybe the improvement in starters 3 through 5 outwieghs anything lost in the bullpen by the loss of Papelbon and Bard.
For the record think there are actually huge questions about Beckett and Buchholz, and management is misreading the true state of the team. Moreover,. the competition appears to be getting better (Yankees, Rays, Angels, Tigers) so the improvement might not be enough.
Best news, actually
I’d much rather we stay below the luxury tax so we maybe have a chance in 2013 to solve our problems.
Everything Must Go.
When Kevin Towers is our GM
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 26, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Well, but judging by the compensation you have to pay for a guy under contract...
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
they will be under in 2013 and eligible for the kickbacks I believe after that
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I'm treading into areas I do not quite understand completely
but I understand if they can get under a certain figure in the next 3 years they get $$ back from MLB.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Also, would not rule out the Sox making a run for Ian Desmond
I vaguely remember his name coming up last summer as someone they were trying for.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
just throwing it out there
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Supposedly the Rays
are interested in him, but are going to give Beckham a chance. BJ Upton nearly was traded for Desmond.
This will be his breakout year & I hope the Nats keep him
I do not think the Nats would trade him – his 2nd half (esp. the last two months) he really got into a good groove.
Pat Reddington on Federal Baseball did a good analysis of him – as a Nats fan I think this season he ties it all together.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Lots of noise tonight
Looking more and more like Oswalt is off the board and in STL.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Yeah, that's what I read late night on ESPN.
Sounds like the physical is all that prevents it from being official.
So much for that…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
asleep at the wheel
Jackson’s and Floyd’s price go up
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Yeah, it looks like we're back on the Floyd bandwagon.
No offers have been made to Jackson, Edes said at ESPN.
I love the contradiction there.
Olney says our offer to Jackson was about $7 million, Edes says there wasn’t one at all.
ESPN…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Assuming this top offense
improves with more from Youk, CC, Salty, RF platoon, more power from AG; and assume defense is tighter including shutting down the running game, and assume increased intensity due to shoulder chips from those who were publicly embarrassed (almost everyone) combined with an infusion of veteran dirt dogs like Punto, Ross, Shop, Sweeney … And this is a better team than 2011 that rocked MLB from the end of April to the first week in Sept.
Assume a #4 from one of those currently in vogue (who are all better than Maholm, Saunders, Garland, et al who were formerly discussed), will be more effective than Lackey.
And assume that just one of Bard, Acevas, Doubront, Tazawa, Padilla will be a better #5 than 2011 Matsuzaka/Miller/Wake and the rotation is better and with considerably more depth than 2011. With Bailey, Melancon, Bard or Acevas, Morales, Albers, and a cast of thousands, the Pen is at least as good as last year. And Ben, the scouts and Carmine continue to tweak. Bobby V is all in. McClure is pro-active. Magadan and Tuck are already at work.
Culturally this team is determined to erase last Sept. IMO there is no way the Sox arent top 5, as if these other teams have solved all their problems with a signing or two. Sept does not represent the Sox, rather it will be the motivation to insure it won’t happen again.
by GerryT on Jan 28, 2012 5:47 AM EST via mobile reply actions
and this team as currently constructed is NOT top 5
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
sorry, there is no way they ARE top 5 as they currently sit
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I don't see us making the playoffs again
not when we’re all but guaranteed to lose at least one pitcher and Youk by the All-Star break.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 9:30 AM EST up reply actions
they are not a playoff team as they sit right now assuming perfect health
Det
TB
LAA
Tex
MFY
all ahead of us
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
and may be a reason to stand pat
and aim for 2013….which I’m sure will sit well with the spending crowd
I expect hilarity to ensue.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Oh there is definitely hope
At the same time, the key word is "assuming I think last year there was a lot of assumptions about Youk being completely healthy, Dice-K and Lackey giving 150-200 innings with better results than we got, having another full year of Buch, that Jenks would lock down either the 7th inning, Lowrie having his (at that time largely freak injures behind him, etc.
But yes, there is definitely hope.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 28, 2012 9:02 AM EST up reply actions
"There is always hope"
- Aragorn, Heir of Isildur
All we need to do is hold out and look to the East on the dawn of the 5th day
I do still have hope, though.
Just think anyone that’s suggesting we’re in a better place today than we were in January 2011 has some rose colored glasses on.
Last year, we were loaded and widely considered the best team in baseball, and we thought we had starting depth for ages… this year, assuming we add a #4 (which is a huge assumption at this point), we’re cobbling the rotation together.
That doesn’t mean we won’t be better, but I’d feel a lot more optimistic if it looked like we were genuinely pursuing a #4 starter as opposed to $5 million offered to Oswalt (so he’s heading to Saint Louis, to stay in the NL, which he preferred anyway), no offer to Jackson (according to Edes) and leaves us trying to convince Kenny Williams that Doubront, Lars Anderson and Expo are enough for Floyd, and don’t you worry about those evaluations of Barnes, Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, and Brentz.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
HA HA HA!
Yes, that didn’t work out for me very well, did it?
I really couldn’t believe we’d actually collapse that badly. And I didn’t believe it until Carl dropped that fly (okay, fine, sinking liner) in Baltimore’s LF and the Yankees handed the Rays the keys to their bullpen (okay, fine… no reason to use their best guys in that game, but still…)
Ugh… so painful.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah, I mean let me spin this back to January 2011 and write the same paragraph... Assuming this top offense
avoids the injury bug of 2010, with full seasons of Youk and Pedey as MVP candidates, with Drew in RF until Kalish is ready to come up and take over full time, and Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford will more than replace the production we lost from Beltre and VMart. Especially if Carl will play CF or teach Ells how to play some defense. Salty will be an improvement over Tek, who can mentor him to be a great catcher and this will be a better team in 2011 than the team that missed the playoffs in 2010.
Assume that Buchholz regresses some, with Lester and odd year Beckett anchoring the rotation, Lackey cannot be as bad as he was in 2010 and he put together a great September to build on in 2011, Dice K is the best #5 starter in baseball, so he should win a ton of games against the other #5s. We’re stacked with pitching depth with Wakefield as the #6 starter/long relief along with the guy we stole from the Yankees, Aceves. If Curt Young can work his magic with Andrew Miller, we might have the next Randy Johnson and that’s before you consider Tazawa coming back from Tommy John in the summer, and guys like Doubront and Weiland waiting for their chance. Our rotation has so much depth we’ll be able to give guys time off to keep them fresh for the playoffs.
The backend of our bullpen is the best in the game with Bard and Jenks for the high leverage situations, and Papelbon is the most consistent closer other than Mariano Rivera over the last five years. Tito and Theo have already won two World Series titles, and this team is loaded up after we missed the playoffs in 2010 so we can go win another one. The last time we missed the playoffs was the injury riddled 2006 season, and look what happened in 2007.
Culturally, these guys are going to play with intensity because they all want to erase the memory of missing the playoffs in 2010, with gamers like Youk, Pedey, Gonzo, Tek and Lester. In everyone’s opinion, the Sox are the best team in baseball and maybe the best team ever assembled. 2010’s injuries don’t represent the Sox, but rather will be motivation to ensure it won’t happen again.
Remind me how that turned out again?
And I’m sorry if I see two huge holes in the argument: “assume a #4 from one of those currently in vogue.” Oswalt is allegedly signed in Saint Louis, we apparently haven’t offered enough prospects to Kenny Williams to entice Floyd in a trade – which to mean means that will be an expensive prospect cost I’m not sure I really want to pay, and we reportedly haven’t even made an offer to Jackson. Not to mention the idea that we have more depth at starter than we did in 2011. We had plenty of depth, but it all sucked. I don’t see pitchers as good in the depth pool for 2012.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah
The “Our #4-5 will be better than last year” argument comes from the fact they were terrible last year and the “odds” are we won’t have a bad year like that. Yeah, odds are we don’t get 5+ era from 60% of our rotation. But when we’re plugging the hole with Cook, SIlva and Padilla…that argument isn’t made by who fills those slots but just that theoretically we shouldn’t have that bad pitching two years in a row.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 28, 2012 5:54 PM EST up reply actions
Theoretically
we shouldn’t have missed the playoffs two years in a row.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Man. That was painful to read.
For some reason, this stood right out like a glaring Kill Button:
If Curt Young can work his magic with Andrew Miller,
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Ha ha ha! Sorry man...
I just couldn’t resist the temptation.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Just want to point out most of the guys saying everything will be fine this year if make no other moves
are the same guys who said everything would be fine in September.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I've found the... not light...
dark… I’ve found the dark
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Blow it up
we’ve got a good core, get AAA-level prospects and compete again in 2013
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
I'm with you
but I’d wait until mid-year and then start the jettison process. and of course this would mean NOT spending more money on starters which would cause the Earth to stop spinning on its axis
I would wait until July
I’m just concerned that some of the pieces we would want to move (like Youkilis) will be on the DL by then.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:53 PM EST up reply actions
It is WAY too early to pull the plug. WAY too early.
We need to see how this actually plays out.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Defintiely. Even if we do nothing we need to see how the SP rotation goes.
In that scenario we would still have until the July 31st trade deadline to confidently move one way or the other.
Yup. I'm strongly against what is going on with the rotation....
but you never know.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
We got a lot of talent/potential talent.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
no more long term free agents
5 year cap all of them, and overpay if you need too
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I don't know about that
just make sure the guys you sign are the right guys for your ballpark. Buy free agents that fit Fenway, not FAs that fit all the away ballparks you play in.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
and buy guys in their prime
or – not signing 30 year old pitchers coming off of injury who already showed a downward trend in their peripherals
the frustrating part of this winter
is they have perfect situations in kuroda/oswalt and others one on year deals and they did nothing.
one year deals, that fill needs wasted opportunity.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
gotta get away from these albatross contracts
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I agree
but if you sign guys who will be productive, it’s not an albatross.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
Also, Manny.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 28, 2012 4:54 PM EST up reply actions
Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun says Jackson is likely to sign a one-year deal this year
and go back on the market next year. Good news for contenders like Boston.
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