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Will Middlebrooks, Ryan Lavarnway, Others Make MLB's Top 100 Prospect List

The Red Sox have four prospects in Jonathan Mayo and MLB.com's top 100 prospects list, released Wednesday. There are no real surprises here in terms of the who, nothing that shocking in terms of the where, either. The Red Sox have plenty of depth in their system, but no one expected to be of the Matt Moore or Bryce Harper caliber. (Who, by the way, are the first and second prospects ranked by Mayo.) You should absolutely take a look at the whole list, but here are Boston's highlights:

Star-divide

56 - Will Middlebrooks: Middlebrooks will start the year at Triple-A Pawtucket, and is the heir apparent to Kevin Youkilis at third base. His ETA might even be 2012, if Youkilis once again sees his season end before the schedule does due to injury. Middlebrooks isn't known for his plate patience, but he has fantastic plate coverage, and his glove should be able to help carry him through any initial transitional struggles at the plate in the majors.

64 - Bryce Brentz: Brentz recovered from his initial struggles in the minors post-draft to mash at two levels in 2011. Mayo describes Brentz as being a "legitimate power bat in right field, one that should provide plenty of homers and doubles in Fenway Park in the not-too-distant future." His arm is excellent, and while his plate discipline currently leaves you wanting, the challenges of the upper levels should force him to adjust, a la Josh Reddick.

76 - Xander Bogaerts: Mayo describes Bogaerts as "a third baseman" despite his playing shortstop in 2011, but that's just cutting to the truth. Bogaerts isn't going to stick at short, but his bat's ceiling is high enough that it might not even matter where he plays. At 19 years old, he's further from the majors than any other Red Sox on the list, giving him the best chance to shoot up higher on future prospect lists. Or, you know, falling off entirely -- not every talented, high-ceiling youngster develops as teams and fans hope.

93 - Ryan Lavarnway: Lavarnway's ranking here seems to be influenced by the fact his defensive game is a work-in-progress (emphasis on progress, though!), but Mayo is impressed by his bat, and thinks he is a "complete" hitter. With Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Kelly Shoppach in Boston in 2012, there's no need to rush Lavarnway just yet until he starts to catch every day for the first time in his professional career.

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This is the same guy who has Oscar Tejeda

as the 4th best 2B prospect in all of baseball

by BobZupcic on Jan 26, 2012 11:38 AM EST reply actions  

He isn't even the best 2B in the Sox org...

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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 26, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

2B prospect, that is...

(Or 2B)

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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 26, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

well I'm not sure he's completely wrong

not because Tejeda is any good but because- QUICK! Name a good 2B prospect in anyone’s system!

by wolf9309 on Jan 26, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Kolten Wang, Reese Havens, and I'd have 3 if Jemile Weeks didn't move up so fast.

Seriously Wolf I did that off the top of my head.

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by GameSox on Jan 26, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Havens is definitely a good call

Wang- I dunno, I can just never count guys who haven’t played pro ball yet. I guess that’s a personal preference. He could be cool. I guess at a certain point, almost anyone counts since Tejeda is almost certainly not a starter- but I’ll stand by my point, which is 2B prospects are pretty crappy right now

by wolf9309 on Jan 26, 2012 4:16 PM EST up reply actions  

that is an interesting place for Bryce Brentz

I meant the guy’s got a ton of potential and power, but the 64th best prospect in baseball?

by wolf9309 on Jan 26, 2012 11:51 AM EST reply actions  

I really like Brentz, too

Which is why you have probably seen me go, “No, no, trade Brandon Jacobs” in every Floyd thread

by Marc Normandin on Jan 26, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Only one 2B...

…was in Mayo’s top-100, so fourth at 2B might be like 150th in baseball, in theory.

Also, I’m not sure Lavarnway is a complete hitter yet. I’m interested in seeing how he adjusts to some Major Leaguers’ success at getting in on him last September. I do think he is adequate if below average as a catcher — no worse than, say, Victor Martinez, but I’m not a scout.

As for Brentz, BP’s Goldstein had him in his midseason top-50 last year after not having him in his top-100 entering the year. The power is real, the defense has a chance to be better than average in right. He will have to show he can do it at Portland, though, and he’s not that young (nor is Lavarnway) for his level — just turned 23.

by UltimateCranston on Jan 26, 2012 12:24 PM EST reply actions  

Brentz is way behind the age curve

If he does not immediately start tearing up AA this year you can essentially kiss goodbye to the thought of him being an above-average major leaguer imo.

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by L33to II on Jan 26, 2012 12:37 PM EST up reply actions  

Lavarnway > Brentz

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by Marisa Ingemi on Jan 26, 2012 2:10 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

This

I would swap their rankings.

by Z3rogs on Jan 26, 2012 2:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I do and I don't.

I don’t buy into the Lavarnaway hype like everyone else seems to. He’s very good, and he’ll continue to be so, but I don’t see him as one of our top 3 prospects.

I honestly think Brentz has a legit shot to be much better than Lavarnaway.

Currently Lavarnaway is the better player, but I think Brentz is the better “prospect” if that makes sense.

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by outofleftfield on Jan 27, 2012 5:48 AM EST up reply actions  

I didn't vote.

If I had I’d want a tie option.

For me you can’t really compare the two.

One is a high floor guy who has pretty much shown what he can do

One is a high ceiling guy with a higher ceiling, but has yet to raise the floor up.

I put them about equal in terms of being prospects, but that’s me. I also don’t particularly care for Lavarnaway like everyone else does. He’s a good player, but he’s just that. Good.

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I'm narcissistic, nihilistic, and arrogant. That's me in a nutshell.

by outofleftfield on Jan 28, 2012 3:42 AM EST up reply actions  

I suppose it's possible that

the majority of OTM readers are correct and the rest of the baseball community is wrong, but it sure looks like Lavarnway is overvalued around here. Note that was NOT me saying he is useless, just not worthy of a #1 system prospect type ranking. That being said it is nice to see him finally make a 100 list.

by NateR1177 on Jan 26, 2012 2:31 PM EST reply actions  

I think probably the general idea is that

baseball fans tend to rate more highly based on proximity to the majors, while scouts tend to make lists that are more weighted towards ceiling. Which makes sense in a way, since not many of us really watch the progression of the younger, low level guys that much, and we’re not really as able to understand what might translate/not translate as well as guys who spend their careers doing that. I’d imagine that most organizations probably have a couple of players like that.

by wolf9309 on Jan 26, 2012 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

minorleagueball.com

does a crowdsourced list every year. A lot of smart people on that blog. They go 75 deep on both hitters and pitchers (separate lists), and so far it’s:

Bogaerts #15
Lavarnway #32
Middlebrooks #44
Cecchini has a shot in the top 75, which is at #55 so far.

Not as good for pitchers, where we’ve got:

Barnes #49

These lists are good crowdsourced consensus lists, in my opinion.

by abbreviatedman on Jan 26, 2012 4:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Yep.

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by John Leary on Jan 26, 2012 2:38 PM EST reply actions  

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