2012 Red Sox Top Prospect Voting #3: Will Middlebrooks Takes Second
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 24, 2012 1:08 PM EST
in Minors
Email
Print
In a battle of potential vs. proximity (or ceiling vs. floor, if you prefer), proximity has won. Will Middlebrooks is Over The Monster's choice for the second best prospect in the Red Sox' system, topping young phenom Xander Bogaerts for the honors.
After hinting at a breakout in 2010 with periods of brilliance, Middlebrooks put together a strong campaign with the Portland Sea Dogs in 2011, hitting .302/.345/.520 in 397 plate appearances with the team. When combined with his excellent glove at the hot corner, it was a year that left Middlebrooks the top prospect in the system according to many scouts.
While Middlebrooks struggled after a promotion to Pawtucket, the move was fairly aggressive all things considered, and he's generally been the sort of player who needs time to adjust to a new level to begin with. Given another offseason of development, Middlebrooks should be ready to establish himself as the heir apparent to Kevin Youkilis at third.
- Ryan Lavarnway, C/DH
- Will Middlebrooks, 3B
83 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
VOTE FOR XANDER BOGAERTS HERE
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 24, 2012 1:09 PM EST reply actions 38 recs
Xander
Really 2b for me, he ends the top tier of Sox prospects.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Barnes
I would argue Barnes fits in with those 3 in the top tier.
by The Laser Show on Jan 24, 2012 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
I know a lot of people are really high on Barnes
But I can’t say I agree until he’s at least pitched professionally. I still have Ranaudo above him, in my mind.
Totally reasonable
But, he was widely regarded as a potential top-10 pick in a very good draft class, and I think his upside & floor are both high enough to call him the #1 pitcher in our system. I still like Ranaudo too, but there has been a lot of inconsistency so far and I have less confidence in him, despite a fairly solid year in the minors. If I had to take 1 pitcher for his whole career right now, I’ve personally gotta go with Barnes.
by The Laser Show on Jan 24, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Ugh, I'm souring on Ranaudo
I loved that pick when we made it, but 7.4k/9 as a 22-year-old in A+ ball does not a top pitcher make. If it were up to me we would trade him now before his value gets any lower.
He's intriguing for sure
But I’d like to see him pitch at a professional level first. At least we can verify that Bogaerts and the other two have and might continue to have professional success.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Top 4
Its always tough to combine hitters and pitchers; new draftees and minor league players when looking at prospects. I think Barnes belongs with Bogaerts, Middlebrooks, and Lavarnway, and I think those 4 are a small step above the next tier (Ranaudo, Jacobs, etc).
by The Laser Show on Jan 24, 2012 2:13 PM EST up reply actions
rec'd
Has to be Xander. Should be 1, ends up 3.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 24, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Seriously
This list is already off to a weird start with a 24-year-old catcher/DH at #1; Xander at least needs to be #3.
all I have to say to that is
0.295/0.390/0.612 at AAA.
Another catcher/DH at AAA (who’s probably less likely to remain at catcher) put up .288/.348/.467. Of course, that one is younger, so he still has time to try to equal Lavarnway’s numbers.
"that one is younger" should be in all caps, italics, and bold
that’s how important of a difference it is. Jesus Montero is a much, much better prospect than Lavarnway. It is very rare for a player to begin his major league career at ~25 (or more, we don’t even know when Lavarnway will be a starter) and become a superstar.
I like Lavarnway; I think he’ll be a pretty good regular. But he is not a #1 prospect, and people who think he is are likely going to be disappointed by the results.
by Jake_W on Jan 24, 2012 2:11 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
There probably isnt a single farm system in which Lavarnway would be the top prospect. His upside is just too limited by major defensive questions and not having an elite bat. If Lavarnway was expected to be an above-average defensive C, he’d likely be deserving of the #1 spot.
by The Laser Show on Jan 24, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
His minor league career is very similiar to that of Victor Martinez
Both the timing, age and results, I am 100% OK with calling a Victor Martinez clone our top prospect.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Same here.
Varitek was a 26 year old rookie in 1998, and played 13 seasons for the Sox. If Lavarnway offers a consistent presence on the Sox like that, I’d be happy with it.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Flagged
for insufficient humping of Jesus Montero
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 24, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
Scouting matters
For example, BA considered V-Mart a Top 20 prospect in all of baseball; Lavarnway has not cracked the Top 100. A lot goes into that, including the fact that V-Mart is just a much better athlete with a much nicer swing.
(Needless to say, though, I very much hope that you’re right and I’m wrong!)
Ooo... made the mistake of searching Google Images for "victor martinez"
…doesn’t get the results you’re looking for.
A lot of the knocks on Lavarnway is how he looks. But as long as he gets results I honestly could not care less if he looked like a bumbling idiot, as long as he’s putting up numbers. Lavarnway has hit at every level, his measurable catching stats have improved astronomically, his CS% was in the mid-30s last season, which is good by any measure, the number of PBs per game has gone from .40 in 2009 to .10 (if I recall) this season. Everything about him has been getting better as his minor league career has gone on. I see him having a premium bat and an offensively starved position he can adequately man.
Also worth pointing out that I don’t see a BA top 100 ranking for Kevin Youkilis on his BR minors page.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
The White Sox.
Every prospect is a #1 prospect in Chicago.
Your point stands though.
by abbreviatedman on Jan 24, 2012 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I get your point about Lavarnway (despite disagreeing)...
… but how is that bat not elite?
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 24, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
"not elite bat"
he had the highest OPS in the league amongst players with 250 PAs. His bat is consensus major league ready.
Not elite bat
I guess when I think of an elite bat, I think of a player who has the combination of hitting, power, and on-base skills enough to put up annual OPS well over .900 and probably touch 1.000 a couple times. The kind of potential that could make you a top prospect regardless of position (like Montero arguably is). I see Lavarnway’s ceiling as a .260-.270 hitter, with a few peak season splits something like .270/.360/.520. That is very good, but a prospect with that ceiling as a probable DH type just isnt a top-level prospect.
I like Lavarnway a lot, and I agree he’s major-league ready…I just dont think he’s our top prospect.
by The Laser Show on Jan 24, 2012 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
Again
DH is being tossed around too much, he will assuredly end there, but with the vast improvement in his defensive measurables, I see him spending the first years of his career at catcher, where .800-.900 is elite, there are no two ways around that and I would very happily take a DH with those numbers, Ortiz-lite. A lot of the scouting on Lavarnway has been on what he looks like rather than what he is doing. For instance they say he doesn’t look good throwing out runners but caught 30-something percent anyway. He has 30+ HR power, those higher OPS numbers are certainly not outside his reach.
As for the other two, Bogaerts is very far away from the majors, while I think Lavarnway is 100% likely to make the major leagues in some capacity, that percentage is much lower for teenage Bogaerts, there is a lot that can go wrong between now and then, his strikeout rate could inflate, the power could disappear faster than you can say Oscar Tejeda there is far more uncertainty when you’re looking at another 3 years of development for him. Which is why I don’t think he’s our top prospect all things considered. He’s our most exciting, but that’s different from being top prospect the way I would grade it. Middlebrooks is also close, has a decent major league ceiling, Beltre-esque, he also has a high floor which is nice, but his bat has some sustainability questions and isn’t likely to make much impact this year bearing something unforeseen.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
All good arguments
I definitely hope Lavarnway keeps improving on D and sticks at catcher, where as you said, .800-.900 OPS is elite.
Its difficult to rank prospects like Bogaerts, Barnes, and Lavarnway on the same list. They all have such different kinds of potential.
by The Laser Show on Jan 24, 2012 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
I scored Lavarnway where I did because I see him starting as a C.
How long he stays there remains to be seen, but judging by the defense of the catchers Boston has used over the last decade (outside of the Captain, who wasn’t known for throwing out baserunners) hasn’t been top of the line.
If those other guys can hang at catcher for the Sox (including the current occupant: Salty), then surely Lavarnway will for a few years. For me, his contributions in 2012-2014 were the biggest upside, and put him at #1.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well, in theory...
… doesn’t his run as a catcher end when Swihart is ready (speaking of wild projections and blue-sky ceilings)?
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 24, 2012 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
I guess that's a guy I'm not so familiar with.
When does he project to hit the majors, and doesn’t Swihart fall into the Xander category (with a high ceiling, but too far away to know for sure he makes it)?
For instance, not too long ago, Expo was considered to be the catcher of the future, but that window seems to have closed, right? And if Lavarnway offers the production at C of Victor Martinez, or even just Jason Varitek, doesn’t Swihart’s potential give us a big trade chip for another piece the team needs?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
All this is true...
Twas more of a comment on Lavarnway’s hypothetical career as the Red Sox catcher than anything else…
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 24, 2012 8:21 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Oh no, me either...
… it was an offhand comment, not an attempt to persuade him of any error.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 24, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
Agree with the difference between your top prospect, and the most exciting.
Well put, and that’s why I’ve voted the way I have so far.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
This
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 24, 2012 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
^this...ignoring the age difference between Lavarnway/Montero is just homerism really
Lavarnway turns 25 in August. Montero won’t even be 23 until the end of the 2012 season. Those 2 years are absolutely huge.
Solid league-average players debut at 24, 25. Superstars debut at 21, 22. That is why everyone drools over Bogaerts because his age and current development trajectory has him reaching MLB around that timeframe.
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
I'm not ignoring it
I’m fully aware that there’s a reason why Montero is rated more highly than Lavarnway- but when you have a player that goes to an ivy league school and doesn’t convert to catcher until his last year there, obviously he’s not going to debut by the time he’s 21-22, because he needs to learn to catch. Catchers have a tendency to debut later than other players. Like a few of the ones I listed below. It’s not so much a pox on their careers as it would be if he were a first baseman.
I'm just looking quickly
but Mike Piazza, Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek. These are all catchers who didn’t get significant playing time until being at least 25
Bums.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 24, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
He won't have to.
Because, while Lavarnway keeps hitting in AAA, Montero will be in the Mariners lineup.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Jan 24, 2012 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
I'm still voting for Kalish.
I’ve just seen too many top prospects flame out before they actually get to the MLB level, and I think Kalish will be a solid, if not spectacular, everyday player for the Sox. Xander might be top 10 for me, maybe even top 5… but I think he’s another year away from being top 3, for me.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
A little bit away...
… but oh that ceiling.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 24, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
In my honest opinion he is the top prospect
But hey, what do I know. I’m not going to be surprised if someone like Iggy ends up at 5 or Barnes ends up out of the top 10 at this rate.
The Red Sox suck, and I am the dirt that was sucked in, I am a dirty.
I'm narcissistic, nihilistic, and arrogant. That's me in a nutshell.
by outofleftfield on Jan 24, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions
Iglesias won't get my vote, even at #20
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 24, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Did you read the post about how Iglesias is underrated at this point?
I think it went up a week or two ago, and made some really solid arguments. I think Iglesias still belongs in the top 5. His glove is there, and he’s playing way above his age range, so to have gotten a taste of MLB at 19, we should see some real progress with the bat in AAA this year… or he ends up a bust.
We shall see… it was a good piece, and some solid arguments. Gives me hope for his future.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
another rec for Xander here
btw I believe he and barnes belong to the top tier…
by Roberto Perez Lopez on Jan 25, 2012 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
VOTE FOR RYAN KALISH HERE
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 24, 2012 1:09 PM EST reply actions 10 recs
I feel bad for Kalish
I actually think there’s a very good chance he’ll be a better player than Middlebrooks, but last year’s injury plus the weirdness of him being on this list at all make me not know what to do with him.
I'm staying consistent here.
I think Kalish remains the next likely everyday player for the Sox (before Middlebrooks). Xander might end up being top 5 next year, and an All-Star for the Sox… so a higher ceiling, but we’ve got a while to wait for that to happen.
For me, Kalish belongs in the top 3.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well, I guess what I'm looking at is this year, who do I see having the impact for the Sox for several years.
Right now, I see Lavarnway as the catcher sometime in the 2012 season, and for the next several years.
I see Middlebrooks at third base by mid-2013 (maybe a September call up in 2012) or maybe 2014. He might not even stay there long, depending on whether Xander ends up as a major league SS or 3B.
I see Kalish, if he does well in AAA and shows he’s recovered from his 2011 injury, possibly taking over in RF in 2012 and being the RF for several years (if not playing in CF if we don’t sign Ells long term).
Xander could be the SS of 2014 or 2015, or he could bust like a few other SS prospects named elsewhere in this thread. He could be overtaken by a guy behind him in the system today.
So, it’s not just proximity to me… it’s the ability to project their contributions to the MLB club. Next year, Xander might be a top 5 or even #1, pending his development in 2012. This year, however, I see more upside (and thereby more top prospect status) to Lavarnway, Kalish and Middlebrooks.
Am I doing this wrong?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
You know
Xander is projected to hit the bigs around the same time Dustin’s contract is up. Maybe he becomes our 2B of the future if he can’t stick at SS
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 24, 2012 8:37 PM EST up reply actions
Most seem to see him having the build of a typical 3B when he's done growing.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Joseph Vincent Paterno 12/21/26 - 1/22/12 RIP Coach
Penn State Forever
Plus, something tells me that barring weird injuries between now and then...
… Pedroia is likely to be the Jeter of the Sox for the rest of his career.
I mean, unless his production suddenly disappears, it is hard for me to imagine us letting him go to another team.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I hope so
I love the guy
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 24, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
This. Pedroia is a player that should never wear another uniform besides the Redsox.
You don’t let that defense and OBP walk into free agency. He’s also the kind of player who I don’t think will want to break the Sox bank so we can build a team around him…
"Hating the (New York) Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax"
I'm back, that's all, formerly known as Sox-Inda-South!
Jeff Kent didn't have the standard 2B build
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 24, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
Callis seems to think he could also be moved to RF
He apparently has the arm for it.
by South Coast Ghost on Jan 25, 2012 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
If I thought there were any chance Kalish could stay healthy
I’d vote for him.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 24, 2012 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Exactly.
All that happened between me being excited about him being our RF in 2011 and now is a season lost to injury… unless that injury damaged the tools he had before, I now see him as the RF by the end of 2012, and possibly for a long time to come.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
If by "long time" you mean "bits and pieces of seasons strung together by DL stints that make Grady Sizemore look reliable."
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 24, 2012 8:38 PM EST up reply actions
VOTE FOR ANTHONY RANAUDO HERE
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 24, 2012 1:10 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I think he might get a September call up, if he has a good year in AAA.
Or if Youk breaks down in August again.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
maybe sox are gonna trade youk then, at trading deadline or next offseason
JPP for 2011 DPOY!
by NewYork! on Jan 24, 2012 3:02 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Middlebrooks will never play for an extended time in Boston. I've said it before...
….He’s Shea Hillenbrand 2.0 He’s not going to be an All-Star player which is what Boston demands out of the 3B position. Maybe for a mediocre NL team he’ll have a fine career, but not in Boston.
"Hating the (New York) Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax"
I'm back, that's all, formerly known as Sox-Inda-South!
Yeah. I know... Think about that name for a moment and how much comfort that inspires....
"Hating the (New York) Yankees is as American as pizza pie, unwed mothers, and cheating on your income tax"
I'm back, that's all, formerly known as Sox-Inda-South!
His defense was compared to Kouz
We’ll see what his bat brings.
At most, I say he’s in Boston for three years, until Xander or Cecchini come up.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 25, 2012 10:08 AM EST up reply actions
Which is why I think Kalish should have been ahead of him.
He might not ever start for the Sox, between Youk playing there and Xander coming up behind him… but what do I know?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
in my mind they have similar likely career paths
of likely solid major leaguer (if healthy) with maybe an all star appearance or two. Probably similar ETAs at this point as well, just since Kalish won’t have played in over a year. Kalish falls in my mind for being older and because he’s devloping an injury history.
I think Will is likely to end up starting some games for the Sox this year.
I look at him in that picture...
… and see Will Forte in McGruber.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 24, 2012 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
Your mother.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 24, 2012 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Over the Monster
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Eric Hosmer redefines the Baltimore chop with infield double (Video)
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
