2012 Red Sox Top Prospect Voting #2: Ryan Lavarnway Earns Top Billing

by Ben Buchanan on Jan 20, 2012 12:30 PM EST in Minors

Over The Monster, you have spoken, and said you don't particularly care that Ryan Lavarnway might not stick behind the plate. Overcoming the super-high ceiling of Xander Bogaerts and the well-rounded Will Middlebrooks, Lavarnway's ridiculous run through Triple-A last year has earned him the top spot on your list.

Ryan Lavarnway, C/DH

While it's entirely possible that Lavarnway does end up taking over for David Ortiz instead of Jarrod Saltalamacchia come 2013 (or whenever he should choose to call it a career), if Lavarnway can end up sticking behind the plate, then he could provide remarkable value to the Sox. We've certainly sacrificed defense behind the plate for a decent bat in years past, and Lavarnway has slowly improved as a receiver. While he's still not even average, he did gun down 29 baserunners in 79 attempts--solid numbers for anyone--and didn't look too bad in his rare major league appearances behind the plate.

So we'll hope on a catching superstar the likes of Victor Martinez, all the while knowing that if nothing else, he'll have a good shot at replacing Papi at $400k a year. Who wants a $15 million pitcher?

Actually, probably best to avoid that given how they tend to work out of late.

Alright, moving on! Voting is the same as always: I'll give you guys names in the comments sections, and you rec the guy you want. If you've got someone in mind who I haven't included, then you can start that thread yourself, and I'll rec it in order to make up for your vote (since you can't rec your own comment).

Just to be clear: your rec is your vote. You can post for discussion, but votes that are only comments will not be counted.

Based on popular demand, Ryan Kalish will be considered eligible, Ryan Westmoreland will not.

Vote away!

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VOTE FOR MATT BARNES HERE

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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 20, 2012 12:31 PM EST reply actions

VOTE FOR XANDER BOGAERTS HERE

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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 20, 2012 12:32 PM EST reply actions 18 recs

I'll go with Xander

Highest ceiling, even though he still has ways to go. But he could be a superstar.

by greenlemonade102 on Jan 20, 2012 7:49 PM EST up reply actions

It's Bogaerts. His power is special for any position, but

it’s coming from a SS. Even if he moves to third, he would have pretty unbelievable power for a third baseman. Toss in a surprisingly advanced approach and good walk rate for his age and experience, and we’ve got a pretty exciting prospect.

But to quantify his power, his ISO of .249 is better than any other player under 18 in A or High A this year. Of those he beat: Bryce Harper (.236), Manny Machado (.207) and Jurickson Profar (.207). All of those were top 25 prospects in Keith Law’s midseason top 50 (1, 5, and 22 respectively). The last 18 year old to post a better ISO was Mike Stanton, whose unbelievable .611 SLG gave him a .318 ISO.

Power bats are on the decline, and arguably the only young, established MLB power hitter is the aforementioned Stanton. And Boston has one coming up through the system.

John Lackey: Boston hates you

by LesterJohn on Jan 20, 2012 8:10 PM EST up reply actions

And you, or someone else, put the other guy up there (other than Mike Stanton)...

You know, it just occurred to me that I’m mixing Mike Stanton up with an old catcher for the Yankees, and so I was less impressed that Stanton once had that ISO… now I realize he’s the Marlins slugger, and that is an impressive comparison.

Someone refresh my memory, though… the other guy was… there it is: Adrian Beltre, with an ISO of .279. (And you posted that info too…) Those two guys are impressive company to be in.

I still went with Kalish here, as I see him as the most likely to be the next everyday player for the Sox, and one with some solid upside. Xander will likely be there a few years down the road so, for me, that puts him as a Top 5 prospect, but not necessarily #2.

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til THIS year!

by AlohaSox on Jan 21, 2012 1:43 AM EST up reply actions

Id vote for Xander

Except can’t figure out how to rec on the mobile site?

by JonnyJumpUp on Jan 21, 2012 10:37 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I'm really not sure how you can think Lavarnaway is a better prospect than Xander at this point

Yeah, he had an impressive last year. I’m not contesting that. But given Xander’s much higher PROSPECT CEILING, you would think he’d be tops.

No matter.

It looks like Middlebrooks will win #2… so maybe vote this guy #3? That’s low given he’ll probably give the most out of all our prospects minus pitchers who are generally good if they are serviceable.

The Red Sox suck, and I am the dirt that was sucked in, I am a dirty.

I'm narcissistic, nihilistic, and arrogant. That's me in a nutshell.

by outofleftfield on Jan 21, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions

Definitely love Bogaerts' ceiling...

… but it’s still possible that he hits a glitch before the majors. That’s less of a concern with Lavarnway, which is the only reason I voted for him ahead of Bogaerts.

The Year of Extreme Opinions
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I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 21, 2012 2:49 PM EST up reply actions

There are so many ways to grade what a prospect is.

If we were to grade ONLY on ceiling, yeah, Xander probably wins. If we were to grade ONLY on closeness, Lavarnway probably wins. When I vote, I’m picking on a blend of ceiling and closeness. Lavarnway is close with a high ceiling, so I think he’s more likely to achieve what I feel is a career that could parallel Victor Martinez, which would be of huge value to the Red Sox. Bogaerts has a very high ceiling but is also not very close at all which means to me that the probability of him reaching said ceiling is significantly lower than Lavarnway since the latter has already passed all of the tests.

Middlebrooks is also close with a decent ceiling but I think offensive questions are tougher to overcome than defensive questions, so I put him on par with Xander and flipped a coin to pick. Xander will be #3 and Kalish probably #4. After that the system is a real crap shoot, but not really in a bad way, we have quite a lot of talent, just not a lot of experience.

I am Sandy's bitch.

Penn State Forever

by Rogue Nine on Jan 21, 2012 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

The vote usually goes to the players who had good years.

Just take a look at last years voting.

by JonnyJumpUp on Jan 22, 2012 1:09 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

VOTE FOR GARIN CECCHINI HERE

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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 20, 2012 12:32 PM EST reply actions

When I saw we were projected to draft Gavin Cecchini, I was really confused.

Since I thought he was already in our system. So… how boring are your parents, when they can only change one letter in the name from the older brother? Not that either first name is common, just strikes me as odd.

(Or are they twins, and I missed that fact somehow?)

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til THIS year!

by AlohaSox on Jan 21, 2012 1:44 AM EST up reply actions

Look up their birthdays.

"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.

by TheLoneDavid on Jan 21, 2012 11:33 AM EST up reply actions

Looks like Garin is the older brother, Gavin is just graduating HS this year.

"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.

by TheLoneDavid on Jan 21, 2012 11:34 AM EST up reply actions

VOTE FOR RYAN KALISH HERE

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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 20, 2012 12:32 PM EST reply actions 8 recs

I have to promote Kalish, knowing he's not getting the #2 spot.

Before his injury derailed the 2011 season, most of us saw him as a mid-season call up likely to take over for J.D. Drew in RF, with a solid arm and CF range, great instincts on the basepaths, and a solid bat.

We got a taste of what he could do in 2010, and it had many in here calling for the team to trade Ells and put Kalish in CF and Reddick in RF to go along with Crawford in LF. With Ells firmly established, I think Kalish is this season’s mid-season call up and our eventual solution in RF for 2012.

The injury made on a diving catch in CF does show some concern about his all out play and his body’s ability to hold up, but this is a MLB player this year. I don’t see the injury history that others see (a wrist injury early in his minor league career?), so I don’t think this is a prospect derailed by injuries like Lowrie.

I think he contributes as an everyday player before Middlebrooks does, and solves a hole we all see in today’s line up with strong defense, baserunning and hitting for RF.

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til THIS year!

by AlohaSox on Jan 20, 2012 1:55 PM EST up reply actions

"2010, and it had many in here calling for the team to trade Ells "

That 88 OPS+ had many clamoring to trade Ells? Just another Great White Hope.

by Dale Sams on Jan 20, 2012 2:21 PM EST up reply actions

Well, at the time, Ells wasn't being seen as a team player...

… and many had speculated that he didn’t come back from his injury(ies) as quickly as he could. And UZR showed he was an atrocious defender (and he does often take bad routes to the ball)…

Still, 88 OPS+ isn’t great, but I think people saw the potential of Kalish to be what Ellsbury wasn’t: a plus defender, not just fast but smart on the basepaths, and a patient hitter.

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til THIS year!

by AlohaSox on Jan 20, 2012 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

(Though, for the record, I was not one of them. I've been solidly in Ells' camp throughout.)

Others in here wanted him traded (and some still do), so I was presenting their arguments (not a team player, too soft, bad defender), not mine.

I do, however, think Kalish’s potential makes him likely a strong contributor to our club for a while to come, possibly even in CF if we cannot sign an extension with Ells.

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til THIS year!

by AlohaSox on Jan 20, 2012 4:15 PM EST up reply actions

Ryan Kalish, healthy and devoping his talent for the

next several years (along with Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Iglesias) at low cost will allow the Sox to sign Ells longterm. CC, Ells, Kalish is a heck of an OF long term, with Lin as RHB and defensive backup = awesome defense and awesome offense. The ability to afford Ells is part of the immediate value of Kalish, Lava, Middlebrooks, Iglesias. My vote is Kalish #2 up as Daisuke and Hill return.

by GerryT on Jan 20, 2012 4:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I like that idea.

I love Ells (that steal of home against Petitte was one of my favorite plays since our last World Series win), I was there for his inside the park HR last September, and I love watching him play (bad reads and all).

If we find a way to keep him around (when I saw the headline that we’d signed an extension with Ells, not realizing it was a one year extension to avoid arbitration, I was very excited… then I opened the article), I would be a happy man.

I’d buy an Ells jersey, if he signs an extension, honestly. And I can look like one of the pink hats (with my long hair and all) when I go to games. Might have to grown my mustache back if I go to games in Fenway, so I don’t confuse the guys.

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til THIS year!

by AlohaSox on Jan 21, 2012 1:46 AM EST up reply actions

That steal of home was awesome

It was the first Sox Yankees game I watched with my roommate (a Yankees fan), it was absolute silence the entire game up to that. Then I snorted and started laughing. Somehow we lived amicably after that.

I am Sandy's bitch.

Penn State Forever

by Rogue Nine on Jan 21, 2012 3:22 AM EST up reply actions

duly voted

by NJ Native on Jan 21, 2012 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

VOTE FOR WILL MIDDLEBROOKS HERE

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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 20, 2012 12:32 PM EST reply actions 26 recs

This was literately a coin flip for me that WMB won.

His bat has a couple questions but worst case he’s Kevin Kouzmanoff, best case he’s Adrian Beltre, great defense either way and I suspect the bat will end up better than the former’s, making him worthy of our MLB lineup. Also, he’s in AAA and a hitting streak + Kevin Youkilis or Adrian Gonzalez injury away from joining the big show.

Bogaerts has an incredible upside, higher than WMB’s, but at 19 in Single A ball there is still a lot of time for complications to develop, he may be our most exciting prospect we have but his age I think limits him from being the clear cut #1 or #2 prospect in the system. But there is no way he’s lower than 3rd.

I am Sandy's bitch.

Penn State Forever

by Rogue Nine on Jan 20, 2012 1:02 PM EST up reply actions

Basically this.

Great upside, more-or-less okay downside. A little further away than Lavarnway.

The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.

by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 20, 2012 1:29 PM EST up reply actions