Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Jacoby Ellsbury And Mike Aviles
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 2:15 PM EST
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According to MLB Trade Rumors -- whose text message alerts are both a blessing and a curse on days like this -- the Red Sox have avoided arbitration with center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury. Ellsbury signed a one-year, $8.05 million deal, a large raise from 2011's $2.4 million. Given the 32 homers he hit last year are 10 more than he had in his entire career prior to this last season, we can't say we're surprised about his new pay.
The end is not yet in sight for Boston's arbitration-eligible players, as deals for David Ortiz, Daniel Bard (in his first of four years of arbitration, rather than the standard three), Mike Aviles, Alfredo Aceves, and new Red Sox pitcher Andrew Bailey all still need to be settled, but at least one of the big ones is out of the way.
Ellsbury finished second in the Most Valuable Player vote in the American League, losing out to Detroit Tigers starter Justin Verlander. Against any other opponent, his 32 homers, .321/.376/.552 line and above-average defense in center would have been an easy vote, but Verlander had himself a pretty epic season on the mound, with the league lead in innings (251), strikeouts (250), ERA (2.40), ERA+ (170), games started (34), and hey, even in wins. That's right: the best pitcher managed to lead in wins for once. Sometimes it happens!
Second place nets you a pretty nifty raise, though, and Ellsbury's checks will be all the larger in 2012 for his efforts.
Ellsbury has one more year of arbitration after this one, and before he is a free agent. While his free agent contract is expected to be massive -- early bets from this author put them in the Matt Kemp range of eight years and $160 million -- Boston will have him for probably roughly $20 million total over the last two seasons there. Whether or not the Red Sox will re-sign him is a story for another day (and year), but enjoy what is essentially a bargain for Ellsbury's production while you can either way. (I know, because of the arb system, he's not really a "bargain", but were he a free agent, his cost would be through the roof. You should smile more often.)
*****
The Red Sox also avoided arbitration with Mike Aviles today. John Tomase reports that Boston will pay him $1.2 million, a raise from last year's $640,000 in his first year of arbitration. Aviles is expected to be a backup infielder and (at least a piece of) the lefty-mashing portion of a right field platoon with Ryan Sweeney.
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I'm rather surprised at that number
I guess his 2010 dragged the number down, but I was expecting eight digits there.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
Arb tends to be based on perceived future free agent value from both sides
So this number is a bump over the previously established figure, but also held back by it. If he does it again, 2013 will probably be a huge year in arb for Ellsbury. Sox and Ellsbury had him for something like $6.5M of projected free agent value after his awful 2010 (just due to the lack of a track record), but after 2011, it’s closer to $14M. Another massive year should be another massive jump.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
Verlander won MVP
And Ellsbury actually beat Bautista by a few points for 2nd place in the voting.
Er, I meant the SB Nation AL MVP. Yeah, that's it.
(Good cover story, Marc, no one will suspect a thing.)
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Also, fixed. Thanks for reminding me I live in a fantasy world.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Well, it should have been Bautista (if not Ells).
(reply fail below)
by The Laser Show on Jan 17, 2012 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
I saw this headline, forgetting he was arbitration eligible...
… and for a moment thought we’d gotten Ells to sign a long-term extension.
Oh well, this will do too. Does this come in under where we expected, and give us any more to throw at Oswalt (say, so we can swing his $8 million instead of Saunders at $5/$6 million)?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I can't remember where I said it
But I’m pretty sure I said $8M for Ells.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
In other words... no help (or hope) for money for Oswalt...
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Ben has gone about slaughtering those notions today too
Something to the effect of “if ST began today, we’re fine with this rotation”.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
It's not a rotation,
It’s a dot.
Everything Must Go.
by Sean O on Jan 17, 2012 5:53 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Anyone know what address I need to send a package to Cherington?
I want to mail him a gorilla suit.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2012 9:02 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure you put his name on the Attn: line of a package sent to Fenway.
I believe that would get to him.
Honestly, I wonder if anyone has actually done that. Or even just sent him little gorilla dolls to help him get a clue.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I do wonder if the total lack of interest
Will result in someone like Saunders taking pennies on the dollar from Boston, out of desperation, in another week or two.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
I tried that as a dating strategy in high school.
I was left with pennies on my own dollar.
About that:
Major, major win for AZ in negotiating one-year, $6 million deal with Joe Saunders. They get the lefty back, and saved $3 million or so.
-Olney
And another one bites the dust.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Wow... so the only option out there now is Oswalt at $8 million?
Anyone think that price is “dropping” as the strategy was, or do we think Oswalt, as the last man standing, can start driving his price up towards Kuroda’s $10/$11 million range?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Edwin Jackson too, but that's about it.
As for the upper edge of the crap, Harden?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Right, but even on a one year deal, Jackson is more than Kuroda, no?
And if we wouldn’t pay for Kuroda, we’re not signing Jackson, are we?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I could see Jackson being the big loser of the 2011-2012 MLB offseason
Don’t think we’ll sign him, but where is he going for what he’s asking? Yankees are off the market, we’re too poor, Angels already robbed the bank and Texas is going to Darvish.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
If I were Jackson, at this point,
I’d be asking for the Rafael Soriano deal. If he succeeded, would still give him a chance to sign a big deal before turning 30 and would give him security if he sucks.
But to Rogue's point... who is offering him that deal?
The Cubs? The Dodgers?
I agree… as much as I’m bitching that the limited options out there drive up the price for Oswalt, I’m not sure who (other than the Sox) is really looking to add a pitcher at the price Jackson/Oswalt want.
And, basically, there are still two of them left… so couldn’t one of them end up in Boston for a lot less than they wanted? Could we offer Oswalt $6 million and say his back injury makes him equal to Saunders?
Where else is he going to go? I haven’t done my homework yet, and maybe I’m overlooking an obvious suitor that will shell out the bucks. Nationals?
Or maybe this is playing right into Ben’s hands?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I think the Cardinals will get him.
I hope the Red Sox do though.
Okay, that's a good team to throw in there.
Which guy, though? I could see the Cards signing Jackson, but probably not for a Soriano type deal.
You think they get Oswalt? Plenty of familiarity with what he can do, I’m sure.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah Oswalt.
I haven’t heard the reliever bit.
by revived0103 on Jan 17, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
How about the Tigers?
Verlander/Fister/Scherzer/Oswalt/Porcello is like, guaranteed playoffs.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2012 9:16 PM EST up reply actions
And they've been willing to spend money.
Okay, so that’s two choices out there, and as someone else pointed out, missing out on Darvish could mean Oswalt goes to Texas (which is also, reportedly, why he hasn’t signed anywhere else yet).
Are there more?
You know, now that I look at that… what about the Tigers as the destination for Jackson? That seems like a good fit to me. Without Jackson/Oswalt, who is the fifth pitcher in their rotation right now?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I dunno
Is Brad Penny still under control? Otherwise it might be Turner.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2012 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
upper edge of the crap
I believe the word you’re looking for is “froth.”
The Year of Extreme Opinions
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
I apologize if this post has offended you in any way. Please retroactively ignore it. Thank you for your consideration.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 17, 2012 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Ha ha ha!
I had considered adding the “BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!” to my signature file, so got a good chuckle seeing it on yours.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
well I'd always take those kinds of things with a grain of salt
we don’t know Ben, so we don’t know how he works that well, but there’s definitely some out there that we’ll hear they have no interest whatsoever in acquiring a player, and then the next day they acquire him. That’s what I’ll tell myself, in any case.
I agree.
What do you really expect him to say?
by aubatron2011 on Jan 17, 2012 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
Well, from a bargaining stand point... this is probably good to say.
However, I’m not convinced he isn’t being sincere either.
I think they really might think Bard will win 20 games, and the rest of the depth they have signed is fine for the #5 spot.
So until we sign Oswalt, I’m not convinced this is just a negotiating strategy. After all, they had come out and said they thought Kuroda was out of their range before he signed with the Yankees. They pretty much are saying now that they won’t sign Oswalt or Saunders either.
I’m not sure he’s not being honest.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
And with Saunders off the market, any hope left?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Except that some people thought we might sign Saunders for $6 million...
… instead of Oswalt for $8 million, with budget concerns and all.
Now, one more option off the list…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
well right
but it didn’t affect my level of hope.
I’ve said it since the beginning of the offseason- Oswalt is, was, and will be the best move the Red Sox could make this offseason. Pretty much, with Saunders signing, if we don’t get Oswalt, we’re going to spend 2012 being either:
a)terrible or
b)very lucky
If we do get Oswalt, we have tons of depth, one of the best lineups in baseball, if not the best, and a very solid pen.
Well, at least you and I are on the same page.
From top to bottom…
I guess my hope is dwindling more because the options are disappearing, and while my choice is still there, I’m not convinced by what they’ve said and the evidence seen so far that this Front Office is going to make that move.
I did say back in November that if we signed Oswalt, I’d stop saying: BLAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS and be happy with this team heading into 2012.
I’m still there, it’s still a possibility… but I will admit, my hope for that solution is dwindling.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I think it's somewhere in the middle.
I mean you don’t want the GM or Manager to come out and say “All the players we have acquired this off-season suck.” But I don’t think just because they seem to be confident in Bard as a starter, and the other guys, that means they’re done.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 17, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Except that that is exactly what they are saying.
They are saying they are done spending money. That’s fine if it is a negotiating ploy with Oswalt / Kuroda / Maholm / Saunders but considering those options have whittled down to just Oswalt, I think it’s not looking likely.
Now, Oswalt has been the guy I’ve wanted all along, and as much as I’d have liked Oswalt and Maholm, I’ll still be mostly happy if we sign Oswalt… I just think they are telling us Kuroda was too much money (and the Yankees got him for his asking price), and they are saying they are done spending – no guaranteed deals for SPs, and I think they may believe they are.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
As I said to you in another thread,
We don’t hear every thing they are working on. I’ve thought all along the FA market wasn;t going to be the way they would add a bonafide starter, I think it will be a trade for one.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 17, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
That's interesting.
The theory is they have to move payroll to add a starter, but I’m not sure where I see the trade coming.
I suppose Gavin Floyd, and we hope like hell that Kenny Williams will take one of our low A guys that he thinks is going to develop into a star.
I just don’t think that’s happening. I truly believe, based on all the reports out there and the evidence to date, that we will go into Spring Training with this current group.
We’ll see who is right.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Going into ST with the current group isn't such a bad idea.
Going into the Season with the Current group probably is.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 17, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
Trade deadline is another place to upgrade
Or anytime before that when starters become available. All is not lost just due to Opening Day.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, but is a starter traded at the deadline significantly cheaper than a starter traded in the offseason?
my impression is no, and we only get them for 2 months. The trade market is pretty much never exactly flush with starting pitching.
Prices might be pretty different this year
Without the ability to get picks for players who aren’t on the team all year, teams can’t exactly demand what they have been able to in previous years for free agents they don’t plan on giving qualifying offers to.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 6:45 PM EST up reply actions
hm that's a fair point
I had somehow completely missed it if a player needs to be on a team the entire year to get compensation. That does change it a lot.
Well, yes and no, right?
I mean, who is trading away a pitcher that hasn’t been on their roster all year? A team trades for a starter in April and trades him away at the deadline?
I think the compensation factor has changed meaning we wouldn’t pay the same price now that we did for someone like Billy Wagner, knowing that after the two month rental, we’d get a compensation pick when he left the following season.
However, the teams trading away starters would be getting less for rentals due to a lack of compensation and also getting less when teams know they won’t be making a qualifying offer (for instance, a team like the Marlins that dump salary after a season, so you know they aren’t offering the guy an extension anyway.)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
well it means that the team the pitcher is traded to
can’t offer him arb (or a qualifying offer) and get compensation for losing him- so that takes down the value of the pitcher to the acquiring team.
We have to be in contention during the Trade Deadline
if we go into April with this rotation we’re going to get chewed up and spat out again.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think I'd rather have Oswalt.
However, I think the theory is that $1 million cheaper, plus we’d move some salary to the White Sox in the deal (whether Scutaro, Youkilis or even a lesser player like Shoppach’s $2.5 million, for example.)
So Oswalt’s actual cost is $8 million, while Floyd would be $7 million – whatever salary we took off the books by trading it to the White Sox, right?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I still say that with the way Kenny Williams is trading guys
I would not at all be surprised if Cherington could swing a Floyd trade thats very favorable to the sox.
by dennet on Jan 17, 2012 8:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Rather have Cherington put on a gorilla suit and sign AA.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Any chance we could send him Carl Crawford?
Not that I want to cut bait quite this early, but maybe Kenny would think he’s getting a steal on the guy that was the prize of the last offseason?
We dump his $20 million salary, add Gavin Floyd, sign Oswalt on a one year, $8 million deal and play Lin in RF and Sweeney/McDonald in LF until Kalish is ready to come up from Pawtucket. Our offense might not suffer… it might actually be better.
Plus, we’d have the money to sign Ells to a long-term deal to play him in CF, and lead off, with a guy that hit 30 HRs last season instead of the projections for Carl to develop that power in his 30s…
I can dream, right??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
And I can dream that KW might just maybe be one horrible move away from being fired
And that we’re the team he makes his trade with.
Surprising that this is the same guy who made so many deft moves in the run up to 2005.
by dennet on Jan 17, 2012 10:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well, much like Theo, you have to figure the fan base gives him a huge pass for ending Chicago's WS drought?
Then again, unlike Theo… he never repeated that success and yet, he’s still there.
I’m confused.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
You know, with V-Mart going down...
I wonder if they could package Youkilis in some sort of trade for Scherzer. Detroit has Jacob Turner ready to step in, and that would still leave some available payroll.
I am intrigued by this idea.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
I'd be intrigued by any one their
(outside of Verlander obviously) rotation. Scherzer would be nice, and so would Porcello.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 17, 2012 9:09 PM EST up reply actions
I think we could get more than Porcello for Youkilis.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2012 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
Who knows?
But any one from their rotation would be a nice addition.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 17, 2012 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
They might be more interested in Scutaro though, with their middle infield issues.
"There's something out there, beyond the horizon in the corner of your eye. I'm going to find out what it is."
-Thomas Solomon, Gentleman Adventurer.
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 17, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
I was about to add a JK
but I had to get off the computer, I was typing that comment on.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 17, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
Would be ironic
To see Youkilis traded for the guy who semi hip-tossed him.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 18, 2012 7:10 AM EST up reply actions
I'll keep hoping, then...
I’ve wanted Oswalt all along, so I’m still hoping we get him.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Armchair GM! Thanks, Google
All told, this group isn’t looking to make much more than $8 million or so, or, the same that Jacoby Ellsbury can expect to get on a deal to avoid arbitration in his second year of eligiblity.
http://www.overthemonster.com/2011/10/31/2526457/armchair-gm-boston-red-sox-2012-offseason
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jan 17, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, the arb numbers for Papi are in
according to Heyman, the Sox submitted $12.65 million and Papi submitted $16.5.
Sounds to me like a really bad move on Papi’s part. He should’ve been able to get more than $12.65, but I would think anything above $15 seems like pushing his luck.
I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see Ben going to arbitration for this in his first year on the job.
I feel like players had an inflated sense of worth this offseason.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Do
Arb judges usually split the difference? Or do they pick on side or the other
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I think they pick one side or the other.
However I believe teams have been now and the arb hearing to split the difference if they’d like.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
yup that's right
once they enter the room, the judges pick one or the other, but the two sides can come to an agreement at any point. I believe Papelbon and Theo got as far as outside the arbitration room
Okay, so what gets this done, then?
A two year deal for $22 million, for an AAV of $11 million but giving Papi security for 2013, or does the arbitration number spit out $14 million for 2012, and we run the risk of paying a similar arbitration number again for 2013 if he has another successful campaign?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Oh wait... I see now.
The judge won’t split the difference, but will either pick $12.65 million or $16.5 million as the one year deal. Did I get that right this time?
So, in that case, does Papi gamble on winning at $16 million or we think the judge definitely won’t side with him on that number?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
So, more incentive for him to sign for 2/$20 million?
Or a better chance that we get him for $12.65 million because he’s clueless about his real market value, and stubbornly goes to arbitration for a judge to tell him he’s wrong?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I mean, if I were him
I dunno if I’d sign a 2/20 deal- even if he just gets $12.65 this year, that means next year he’d just need to perform well enough to justify a $7.35 contract to justify that. Maybe 2/22?
Right, I'm just asking.
My point is, we need a deal that’s as good as we can get AAV, and honestly, we all expect him to perform well enough to earn $7/$8 million if not $13 million for 2013, right?
So why not give him the 2/$22 now for a little more flexibility this year?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I wouldn't take a 2/$20 million deal
He is going to get 12.65 for sure, and if he does what he did last year, he’s going to make more than $7. Thought I don’t know why his agent would think he could get $16 million. I could see asking for more than you’d accept, if they offered you what you think you are worth, but at only one year, you don’t loose anything to ask for more. Perhaps he’s trying to get them worried the arb panel will grant the $16million deal and the Sox will offer 2/$24 million. Not sure though.
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Maybe he didn't think our offer would be so much lower?
I really don’t mind even 2/$24 million, though I think 2/$22 million should get it done. I still think he’s going to earn at least $10 million in arbitration next year, unless 2012 is a disaster.
Personally, I’m rooting for him to have another great year, so I think it’s worth locking him up for two years now.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
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