Yankees sign Hiroki Kuroda
We're in serious trouble.
4 months ago
Ben Buchanan
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You expect us to, what, make the playoffs?
I’ll gladly admit i’m wrong if this team doesn’t suck. But… they do.
Everything Must Go.
Sigh.
Nice to know we don’t have to wait for the Sox to go 2-11 before we write off the season.
"If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life." Manny Somebody-or-other
by Tessie's Dad on Jan 13, 2012 9:52 PM EST up reply actions
That's silly
I wrote our season off when I first heard Bard = Starter.
/becausewesuck
Everything Must Go.
+1
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
im getting an eye strain from rolling my eyes so many times
by dennet on Jan 13, 2012 10:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Then good god watch out for the 2012 Red Sox
They’ll kill you. I only talk about how bad they are, they show it.
Everything Must Go.
How wonderful to be a Red Sox fan
Years ago, we had to wait until August to give up on the season. Nowadays, we can do it in January. Gotta love it.
We've been better than the Rays on paper
The past 4 years.
Check out my blog at http://conor-soxrox.blogspot.com
The Rays scored 707 runs last year.
But their lineup changed greatly in the last two months of the year. The addition of Jennings, playing Joyce in right and Zobrist at second meant the lineup was significantly improved. Over the last two months the Rays averaged 4.6 runs a game, which translates into 745 runs for a year. Jennings is now more experienced and the Rays have a better catcher now . Even if you assume Scott is an even replacement for Damon, it is fair to guess the Rays will score at least 750 runs.
The Rays gave up 614 runs last year. The big difference this year will be another year of experience for Hellickson and the addition of Matt Moore, who started the second game of the ALDS and in 10 innings against the Rangers gave up 1 run on 3 hits and struck out 8. While you can question if their pen will be as good, the Rays will be better at run prevention next year. If Moore is who the Rays think he is (and their extension of his contract locks him into Tampa through 2019) , the Rays front three of Moore, Sheilds and Price is the best in the American League. Behind those three are Hellickson (the AL Rookie of the year) and Neiman or Davis.
If you assume the Rays improve 10 runs in run prevention and score 750 (their pace over the last two months of the year), the Rays project to a winning percentage of .609, or 98.9 wins.
They are better than the Red Sox.
Good data to back up your point.
Makes me even more depressed tonight.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
THe Rays got very lucky on pitching
their team SIERA was 3.94. Translating their team SIERA to runs allowed they should allow 689 runs, subtracting their UZR from that, 634. 750 runs scored and 634 runs allowed is 93 wins. Matt Moore’s CAIRO projection has him at a 3.96 ERA. Niemann had a 3.78 SIERA. While Wade Davis was a lot worse than Moore’s projection, Moore is probably going to replace Niemann. That is not that much of an improvement. We can’t even be sure they’ll score 750 runs. You can’t rely on the last two months to project next season’s performance. If they score 707 runs, they should have 89 wins. Another way to project is just using CAIRO projections for a team. I use the depth chart from MLBdepthcharts.com. Then plugging the numbers into Tango’s MARKOV calculator the Rays should score 4.55 runs per game, or 737. It projects the REd Sox to score 5.923 runs per game, or 959. That’s insane for the sox. I’ll calculate the pitching later, but I think the Sox will win this one.
Where to start
Matt Moore. I wrote about him last September. As I noted, fangraphs wrote:
Fans freak out when top prospects are promoted to the majors, but some promotions justifiably deserve more fanfare than others. David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, and Desmond Jenningswere all received in Tampa Bay with much excitement, but Matt Moore….this guy should be on a whole other level. He’s in an elite class of pitching prospects, and he has a chance to burst onto the scene like Lincecum, Hanson, Weaver, and Strasburg. He’s dynamite, I tell you, dynamite.
As I noted in the same article, Moore’s AAA numbers were very similar to Steven Strasburg’s, except that Moore struck out more batters. You are right, a projection says he will only go only 6 and 5 with a war of only 1.2 Moore is a baby – and maybe he will regresss. But the same projection you cite has Dice-K going 6 and 5 with a FIP of 4.21 and a war of 1.5. Good luck with that. As a Sox fan I will be thrilled if the projection is right. Very few people in baseball believe the projection you are relying on. Having seen him pitch, I don’t. Moore is an outlier – soomeone whose numbers are so unusual you don’t have many people to compare him against. The comps that do exist for Moore are frightening.
I think you are very wrong in thinking that Mat Moore will not prove to be an improvement over Neiman.
The guess here is Davis gets moved, and the Rays hold on to Neiman. In any event, if I were to make a case against the Rays pitching it would start with the bullpen and then focus on James Shields, whose FIP went form over 5 in 2010 to 3.42 in 2011. It will be interesting to see if James matches his 2011 numbers – though 2010 was clearly an outlier. Of course, in a way Shields 2011 is in some ways similar to Becketts (both had terrible 2010’s, both had great 2011’s). It is instructive that you don’t mention Price – who by some measures regressed some in 2011.
I think the Rays starting pitching will be better in 2012 than 2011. You can rely on the projections if you want. I should note, though, that I haven’t looked at whether the Rays outperformed their predicted run prevention as you have. That gives some hope, I guess.
With respect to the offense, I don’t think you get what I was saying. It is true – using two months of offense is misleading. The reason it is relevent here, though, is that the personel of the Rays offense changed enourmously in the last two months of the season. In July of 2011 the Rays bottom four were as follows: Fuld (lef), Stoppach ©, Rodriguez (2b), Brignac (ss). In Agust Fuld was replaced by Jennings, who stole 20 bases and hit 10 Home Runs in 63 games (with a war of 2.4), He was an immense improvement. The other change was to install Joyce in left, and move Zobrist to second. Essentially this meant replacing either Brignac or Rodriguez with Joyce.
I should add it is relevent here to note, as it always is with the Rays, that there are major league ready players in AAA. In particular Guyer may take over right from Joyce.
The Rays in August were a much better team offensively than they were in July. That is why those numbers are more relenent. It is kind of funny you own projection is for 4.55 runs per game (they scored 4.6 over the last two months, which kind of proves my point) but there other reasons to think the Rays will be better (Jennings will have another year, the projections you are using are much worse for Jennings than Bill James’ are), Molina is miles better than Mr .185 Kelly Stoppach, and both Brignac and Rodrigues will be pushed from Rays minor leaguers.
I think 750 runs is actually too conservative.
With respect to your estimate for Rays run prevention, these models aren’t good enough to distinguish between 634 runs allowed and 607. I think you are dead wrong about Moore, and that will matter a great deal. But truthfully I haven’t run the numbers.
Truthfully, though, the projections you cite are really a best case for the Red Sox. They project good years for Lester, Beckett and Buchholz. In those projections Lester is essentially the same pitcher as Price, Beckett’s FIP is almost identical to Shields’, and Buchholz’s numbers are better than Moores’ (though not a lot better than Neiman). This might happen. I suspect Boston is going to sign a fourth starter, and if he is comporable to Hellickson (who is arguably due for a significant regression) and Bard is OK, then the Red Sox look better than the Rays.
In that view the glass is more than half empty.
But in my view I see a starting rotation with one pitcher unlikely to come close to 2011 (see his performance in September and compare against this 2010) and another who has struggled with injuries. I see no starting depth, and a pen that will not be as good as last year. I don’t see better pitching in 2012 for the Red Sox.
That means improvement has to come from the offense. And it may get better: Crawford seriously underperformed, Sweeney is better than what we had in right, and even AGON might expect to get better. Add in a full year from Youk and the Red Sox look like they will better. Against that, though, you can argue that Ortiz’s age suggests decline, Crawford really don’t show much improvement, and does anybody really think Ellsbury will repeat his 2011?
In the end, the tough part about evaluating the Rays is that you have young players, and they can be difficult to project. The Rays believe they brought two future ALL Stars to the club in 2011 (Jennings and Moore) . If they are right, and I think they are, the Rays are better than the Red Sox.
by flasoxfan on Jan 14, 2012 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
fla - this post is too meaty for just a comment
You should really fanpost it so it can get some attention.
Everything Must Go.
I will
but I want to see who the Rays sign at first and who the RS sign as a fourth starter first.
Sorry for the too long post.
The part about the Rays outperforming their Run Prevention is interesting.
I don't think he was saying it was too long to read
I think he was saying it is interesting, you should make it a fanpost so that everyone reads it
Exactly
At no point will anyone dump on someone’s well written, well reasoned post. Just that it deserves greater attention.
Everything Must Go.
No need to apologize for excellent posts!
No matter the length.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 14, 2012 8:49 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with a lot of your points
I think this is underrating Moore a little, I think the Rays will win more than 89 games of course, but that run projection is crazy for the sox. One thing I disagree with you though is about the pitching. It’s almost guaranteed to get better for me. Bard has the chance to be an ace, he has amazing stuff, I don’t think he will be, but here’s this. I guarantee you the Red Sox will get much better production out of the 4 and 5 starter spots. Lackey’s performance was arguably the worst performance by a Red Sox starter ever. He was so awful, with out him, I’m guessing we win 95 games last year. Then Miller, Weiland, and Wakefield were also absolutely awful. coolstandings.com had us at a 99.9% chance to make the playoffs at one point, we didn’t make it. The chances of that happening again are just about zero. While Ellsbury had a crazy season, he didn’t get that much BABIP luck, his BABIP was about in line with his xBABIP and Jeff Zimmerman showed on fangraphs how his batted ball distance shot up in the second half. I expect him to regress but not that much. I definitely think Crawford will get better, if he’s average, thats two wins more. I expect him to put up maybe 4 WAR. I expect the Red Sox to win from the mid to high 90s in games. I think they’ll be battling the Yankees. I do believe Jennings and Moore will be future all stars, but I don’t think they’re good enough right now. I think 737 runs is accurate, but that CAIRO projection had us at 960, assuming last year’s horrible pitching, which I think will get a lot better, we’d have a pythag record of 101 wins. Sean O and Lone David are just ridiculous, why would you assume a 90 win team, who had 98 third order wins from Clay Davenport, who won’t have maybe the worst Red Sox starting pitching season of all time, and will have Crawford bounce back a ton, win 80 games, that is just absolutely ridiculous. flasoxfan, you made a bunch of really good points, and I do think the Rays hitting will improve, but I think the Rays pitching will regress and the Red Sox hitting and Pitching will improve. I think we have a chance at 100 wins.
A 90 win season?
In your dreams, this is an 81 win team. We have one reliable starting pitcher, and no production from LF, RF or SS.
Everything Must Go.
wow, Scutaro was better than Jeter last year.
Crawford and right are almost guaranteed to improve. Beckett, and Buchholz, while inconsistent are still very good. Why would you expect a team that got very unlucky to get 9 games worse?
Because Crawford won't be better
His batting line might go up a little, but the line he posted this year is pretty close to his career line in Fenway. He also isn’t defensively able to play LF in Fenway, he’s got the opposite skillsets to what Boston needs.
I don’t think we’re an 81 win team, but I have no illusions of competing for the World Series this year.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 3:06 PM EST up reply actions
So 1 year
means that Crawford will be a replacement level player next year? I assume Crawford will put up maybe 4 WAR next year. At Fenway his career line is .275/.305/.410 since he only plays half his games in Fenway, that’s a massive improvement. I also assume his defense to get a lot better.
I don't
as you said, he plays half his games in Fenway. That’s nine times as many games as the second most played stadium. Crawford is a speedy fielder with a weak arm. With the monster in left the Sox need a fielder with a strong arm, to pick off runners coming from first to second.
Finally, Crawford has been playing in the AL East since 2002, that’s almost a full season’s worth of games just in Fenway (81 games in 2011, plus 9 games/season from 2002-2010). If he hasn’t learned how to play defense in Boston by now, he never will.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
A lot of good defensive players
have bad defensive seasons once in a while just like good offensive players have bad offensive seasons. Defense does not fluctuate more than offense, that is a myth that I hate when other people bring up, but I definitely think he’ll improve.
How many good players
have bad EVERYTHING seasons? He couldn’t hit, defend, or steal last year.
Everything Must Go.
You're comparing
Matt Kemp’s 106 OPS+ season with Crawford’s 85? And, Matt Kemp is a substantially better baseball player.
Everything Must Go.
because you asked for a good player
who had a bad season, and Matt Kemp’s 2010 was only .2 WAR better than Crawford’s 2011
They're nothing alike
At all. And I said a person who was bad at everything. Kemp putting up a 106 OPS+ is not similar to Crawford’s implosion.
Everything Must Go.
but they had
very similar WARs because Kemp had awful defense, Kemp’s defense rebounded, and Crawford’s should too, Kemp’s offense got a lot better, and Crawford’s should too, I’m not saying Crawford will be 2011 Matt Kemp, but a lot better than 2011 Crawford.
Why?
Don’t say because he only plays half his games in Fenway, that’s disingenuous. 50% of his games is a far higher percentage than in any other stadium. He can be great defensively on the road, but that doesn’t matter if he’s beyond awful at home.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
he's not beyond awful at home, he had a bad defensive season
I expect him to have a +10 UZR next year.
I disagree
The Monster takes too many outs and turns them into hits (extra base hits with Crawford’s noodle arm).
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
But, we can shift Crawford more to CF
and Ellsbury more to the Gigantic right field and because of Crawford’s excellent speed, he’ll still be able to cover the monster. Crawford is an excellent defensive player.
You don't think anyone in the billion dollar
Sox organization thought of that last year?
Everything Must Go.
They probably did
and Crawford had a bad defensive season, and he’ll have a good one next year. Why are you placing so much value in one year when every other year supports something else?
Because he couldn't do anything right
Anything. Nothing he did last year was of any value to us. What is worrisome is that this isn’t his first utter collapse either, so we’ll see whether or not he can recover .It is really troubling to have signed a player who takes every third year off, and that’s if we get lucky.
Everything Must Go.
Because of the park
Crawford can be as elite a defensive player as he wants. With the monster behind him turning so many outs into hits his value is negated.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 3:42 PM EST up reply actions
but UZR is park adjusted
so this means nothing. He is a good defensive player who had a bad defensive season.
The park adjustment doesn't work for Fenway
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Thats the thing
Defense is fairly constant through a career. It’s no where near as random as batting is. UZR of course doesn’t represent that well since it’s largely a terrible statistic.
Crawford was still as fast and still had a sub-par arm and still had the same good instincts he’s had his entire career, those aren’t going to go away until he’s into his late 30s.
What I do think is that there is a ceiling of how effective a LF in Fenway can be, I think that value is far lower in Fenway that anywhere else in baseball when most of your plays are turning around and scooping the ball up and throwing it.
In fact, that plays antithesis to Crawfords strengths and weaknesses, his speed and his arm. What you need in Fenway is a LF with a stronger arm as an asset.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Which is why I thought Quentin would be a better Boston LF than Crawford.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 3:54 PM EST up reply actions
But Ellsbury
had a 37.7 UZR/150 at LF in 2008, and he’s a similar, but a little worse defensive player to Crawford. Range factor fluctuates a ton too, defense is as random as batting, and UZR is a good stat. RZR fluctuates a lot too, that’s just plays made in zone divided by balls in zone
Defense only fluctuates if you look at UZR
And a 37.7 UZR/150 should tell you just how ridiculous the stat tends to be. When is the last time anyone posted a UZR/150 that high over the sample size of say 150 games? Anyone? My work computer here is a little funky, but I checked back to 2004 and not a soul did it over 1300+ innings.
Hitting relies on a lot, defense relies on you. Good defenders are always good defenders, they may make a mistake, but bearing some massive mental distraction, they can always be relied upon to be great defenders. Beltre has always been a great 3B, he didn’t suck in 01, 05, or 07, the formula simply didn’t work for him those years, probably because he made some big mistake at some point and the formula never for gave him despite him being great the other games.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
David Appelman found out that UZR
fluctuates as much as wOBA. Range factor, and RZR, which are pretty straight forward to understand, also fluctuate a ton. Defense fluctuates a ton.
Again
UZR will, because UZR isn’t an especially great stat, it takes 3 years to normalize.
When watching a batter, you can see him go through streaks and slumps, you really don’t see that in defenders when you actually lift the eyes over the calculator screen.
I’m not talking about numbers, I’m talking about actual performances.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
UZR does not take 3 years to normalize
You don’t see defenders as much because it’s harder to notice. I bet if you did your own hit location, you would see that fielders do to. But anyway David Appelman found that UZR dosen’t take 3 years to normalize here
OK the problem with his offense wasn't Fenway
or else he probably would’ve posted higher than a .668 OPS on the road. His offensive game certainly isn’t built for Fenway, but is the type of game that should play out pretty well regardless of park.
Being better than a broken down Derek Jeter
is suddenly production?
How is RF going to improve, just because we want it to? We have Mike Aviles and Ryan Sweeney as our RF for godssakes, and they’re both awful.
Crawford showed no ability to do anything well the entirety of last season. Nothing.
We did not get unlucky last year, we got what was coming to us. We got lucky with an exceptional season from Ellsbury and Beckett, both of whom will regress or utterly collapse. Buchholz is completely inconsistent, and otherwise we have nothing at pitcher.
You think there’s a chance at 100 wins. That boggles my mind. This is a bad team.
Everything Must Go.
Yea, we did get unlucky last year
we had 94 pythag wins and 98 third order wins, and someone at BP, forget who did a study that the Red Sox got more unlucky than the average team with injuries, like 3 wins unlucky, if we add 3 to 98 that’s, guess what, a 100 win team. You really think our 4th and 5th starters will be as bad as Lackey, Miller/Weiland/Wakefield last year. Lackey had arguably the worst season by a Red Sox starter ever. Buchholz is inconsistent, but he’s one year removed from being the AL ERA leader. Sweeney isn’t very good, but I bet he’ll be better than the awful .233/.302/.369 line put up by Red Sox right fielders last year because of JD Drew. We are definitely not a bad team. You think Bard will be horrible, I don’t, but even if he is horrible, him and whoever replaces him is sure to be better than Lackey last year. You are assuming worse than the worst case scenario. Scutaro had a 110 wRC+ last year, the average major league SS had a 88 wRC+, that is definitely not no production at that position. And Crawford is almost guaranteed to improve too.
Look
I believe in sabermetrics, but please tell me you don’t realize your post is just a little ridiculous. In the end, you have to play the game on the field, and our roster construction meant that part was badly failing.
You make your own luck. When you stock your team with aging, injury-prone players and terrible pitchers with no depth, you collapse.
Everything Must Go.
Because Beckett and Ellsbury are going to regress more than Crawford will rebound
if he rebounds at all.
I feel like a lot of you optimist guys think we want the Red Sox to lose. That isn’t true, I want the Sox to win as much as you all do, but looking at what’s been going on this offseason, I don’t see it happening.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 3:47 PM EST up reply actions
I agree Beckett and Ellsbury will regress
but Beckett had a 3.43 SIERA. That’s not regressing more than I think Crawford will rebound, I know you think Fenway kills LFs but in 2008 Ellsbury had a 37.7 UZR/150 at LF. Crawford is better at defense than Ellsbury. And even though Beckett will regress, Buchholz won’t be out almost all season again, and even if Bard fails, which I don’t think will happen, our fourth and fith starters will be miles better than Lackey, and Miller/Weiland/Wakefield last year. Youk, and RF should also get a lot better, I think Adrian might get better because of the injury, and I think Catcher might be better too because Shoppach is better than Tek, and Lavarnway will come up mid season. I think the pitching and the hitting will be better.
He has a point
They may have lost 10 games due to bad luck last season, so if you want to factor more bad luck this year, shouldn’t you subtract those games from our expected 2011 win total?
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Even if you thought they got worse,
which I definitely don’t. You should expect them to win at least the same as last year because they got about 11 games unlucky.
Yes, but I'm not sure where that total is
I definitely don’t think it’s more than 95 games, when I look at our rotation, I consider 100 our absolute ceiling if everyone stays healthy and everyone performs to their 2011/2010 expectations. Then we know that at least one of our “big three” will hit the DL for a significant amount of time, let’s take three wins off for that. Take another game or two off for Ellsbury regressing, add another for Adrian’s power surge, take off two or three for Youkilis going down sometime during the season. Another one for Beckett regressing, maybe add one for Saltalamacchia not sucking at the end of the year.
I think we could all agree that most of those things will happen, Youkilis will get hurt because that’s how he plays third. One of our pitchers will go down because they’re all kind of injury prone. Adrian will hit more home runs because his shoulder will have healed up. Ellsbury will regress because how could he not?
Now let’s add some of that Tampa Bay black magic. My personal predictions are: Daniel Bard doesn’t work as a starter, we’re forced to start Aaron Cook. Carl Crawford doesn’t “regress to the mean.” We’re forced to make Ryan Sweeny an everyday player because we’re playing Aviles at third. Andrew Miller makes more than 15 starts in the Majors.
How many games do we lose because of those things happening?
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
No, they didn't get unlucky
Luck is for those who didn’t do a good enough job in the first place. We have an old team, and we got injured. We were perhaps unlucky in 2010, though the same caveat about age applies.
We had one reasonably good pitcher and one godawful pitcher go down due to injury. The rest of the time, we failed, because we’re not a good team.
Everything Must Go.
no, we actually did get unlucky.
And I’ve showed why before, and your really ridiculous, and it’s pointless to argue with you. David I disagree with, but I can actually argue with because he’s reasonable, you’re just ridiculous.
Another reason why they were unlucky
they had a 3.89 SIERA and a 4.20 ERA despite having the second best UZR in the majors, the 2011 Red Sox got more unlucky than I’ve ever seen a team get unlucky before.
facepalm
I… ugh, slfja;ljfa;lskfjaslkf
They. Weren’t. Good. I cannot believe I’m saying this, but get out of the stats and watch the games on the field, they were not a very good team. I went to more games than I could count, I saw it first hand, they did not have a team. I saw Matsuzaka, Lackey, Weiland, Miller etc. start games, a lot of them. When that happens, you will lose baseball games.
Everything Must Go.
But who will?
The Great Bard Experiment, ??? at SP5, and whoever replaces the innings Beckett and Buchholz don’t pitch.
Everything Must Go.
I haven't researched this
but I did make this point last year: I think RS offense tended to score in a way that was less useful than would appear. In September their offensive production looked OK in the aggregate, but when you looked game by game it was actually pretty eratic. Scoring 7 runs a game in two games is more useful than scoring 13 runs in one game and 1 run in another.
The intuition here is that the RS average runs per game is distorted by an abnormally high number of games where more than 10 runs were scored.
This is all intuition on my part: I have never studied to see if large standard deviations in runs scored renders the pythagorian projections more or less useful. But when I looked at September, I noticed that the RS scored 4 or less runs in 17 out of their last 26 games. By contrast they scored 10 or more runs 5 times (including 18 runs twice, and 14 once). When you look at the average runs per game in September they are actually nearly identical to the rest of the year (5.40 runs per game, which project to an 876 runs a season).
When you look at the distribution of run production in September of last year, the RS don’t look as unlucky.
even if this is true
which I don’t think it is, they still got extremely unlucky because the pitching staff underperformed their SIERA by 30 points while having the 2nd best defense in the MLB. That is extremely unlucky, then they lost 3 wins more than average to injuries.
But they didn't do anything to change that
We’re still relying on Youkilis to be our 3B, even though everyone knows he’s gonna get hurt again, and we didn’t acquire any pitchers even though we all know at least one of our guys is going to go down.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm saying that if you underperform your team SIERA by 30 points
AND you have the second best defense in the league, your luck is absolutely awful.
What else is new? This is the Red Sox.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
LOL
but seriously, they were really, really unlucky, more unlucky than any team I’ve ever seen before.
I think a lot of that comes from September though
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, and I think that's a once in a generation thing.
So as dark as everyone is right now (and if we don’t sign Oswalt, I’ll stay dark until we win the AL East), without that ridiculous September collapse (and it was ridiculous), not to mention the unreal horrible April, this team was a 100+ win team from May – August.
While I realize April and September matter, it is hard to believe (even with the pitching staff we have today) that we repeat that experience.
Bososx13 is right… we were incredibly unlucky, really both of the last two seasons. I want a #4 starter, and I want Oswalt. However, it’s hard to argue that we won’t be better in 2012 just by the virtue that we aren’t starting Lackey/Dice K/Wakefield as #4/#5/#6 this season.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I reserve the right to disagree with that last part
Until Bard/Aceves/Miller/Cook prove me wrong.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
Again, look at the actual 2011 performances of those three.
And realize that Bard/Aceves/Miller/and whomever else could not possibly perform worse than that.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I think it's very possible they could be that bad.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 6:05 PM EST up reply actions
That's what people were saying about 2010 though
“One in a million for that many players to get hurt.” Well, guess what, we’ve had 2 unbelievably “unlucky” seasons in a row.
When is it unlucky, and when is it incompetence?
Everything Must Go.
Certainly two bad finishes in a row.
However, hard to tie the injuries we had in 2010 (fouled ball of Pedey’s foot, Ellsbury’s collision with Beltre, and Youk getting hit with a pitch, right?) to incompetence.
2011, I think there was pretty horrible luck in there (Lowrie’s collision with Carl, Buchholz’ broken back, losing two SPs to torn elbows and a bullpen arm as well), but certainly we didn’t have the depth we needed at starter and failed to get enough depth at the deadline.
However, if we go into the season with our current rotation (given the pledge that we’re not guaranteeing any money to SPs at this point), and the rotation implodes again in 2012? Yeah, that will be incompetence.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
THISSSSSSSSSSS
This is EXACTLY what I was thinking earlier. Talking about our run production and our team ERA is utterly useless. We won so many games by 8+ runs that the numbers were badly skewed. Even in September, our precious few wins were total blowouts, making it look better than it seemed.
Everything Must Go.
Yeah, I'm sure there's merit to this.
Though, to be fair, the team ERA would also be affected by the blow out losses when we let someone like Weiland (or Lackey or Dice K) start a game and give up six runs in the first couple innings… or worse.
We had our fair share of blow out losses too. As well as wins (Lackey in particular) where the pitcher gave up 8, and the offense scored 10 for the W.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
RF improves
just because our production is right last year was so goddamn awful that yes, Ryan Sweeney is an upgrade.
.233/.302/369 was our RF line from last year.
.265/.346/.341 was Sweeney’s
.286/.365/.377 was Sweeney’s against righties.
.260/.333/.471 was Darnell McDonald’s against lefties
If he can play defense, Aviles’ line against lefties last year was .318/.348/.576
Add in that Sweeney’s opposite field swing will be moving from Oakland to Fenway (though I’m not really sure I even buy that argument, as his career ISO at home isn’t noticeably lower than on the road), and we might actually cobble together some acceptable production out of right, if everyone is managed correctly.
Yeah, I have no concerns about RF in 2012.
Just the rotation.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Not good
The MFY rotation sure got a lot better in a really short amount of time.
Youkilis...
Brewers need a new 1B.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
They'd want more for Grienke
They NL central is open every year
Quantum Woodworking: Hand crafted pens, bottle stoppers, bowls and more.
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Oh, I know...
That was just knee jerk…
I still cannot believe the Mariners traded Pineda. Seriously, with him and Felix at the front of that rotation, they could have contended in the AL West really soon, and looked good in the playoffs too.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Oh, Brian Cashman
Seems we (I) forgot about you until just now.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jan 13, 2012 8:37 PM EST reply actions
Pretty ironic
How the Yankees’ GM’s name is Cashman
Check out my blog at http://conor-soxrox.blogspot.com
Remember when the Red Sox only had 3 starting pitchers and refused to sign another real starter?
Because they were worried about spending too much? Yankees have proven much more than us recently to deserve some slack.
My Twitter @totheights
What's this have to do with slack?
My comment was in no way a reflection of the Red Sox offseason moves (or lack of), but that the best team on paper doesn’t get a free pass to the World Series.
True.
However, the new Wild Card rules go into effect when? Since winning the division suddenly has a lot more weight, and the Wild Card gives you a one game playoff to get to the next round.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
With or without Pineda/Kuroda, it was going to be a dog fight for 3rd place.
If the 3rd WC goes into place, while it adds incentive to finish 1st, it also strips incentive to finish 2nd. Not that 3rd should be given with the Jays to consider, though they still feel a couple moves away.
Yes, but I guess my concern is...
Anything can happen in a one game playoff, and we haven’t looked good in those games historically (thinking of the “playoff” atmosphere to Game 162 last year, not to mention 1978 and others).
So, I think winning the division (rightly) is much more important now. I know we won the World Series from the Wild Card spot twice, but it’s going to be a lot harder to do that going forward. And we aren’t in the AL West, so winning the division was always going to be hard.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I would say the division is important this year
Because if there are two wild cards then I would bet money one of them will be either the Rangers or Angels. Not really comparing them to the Sox, but you have to look at the fact that both Oakland and Seattle are NOT going out to try and compete this next year or two. They are both looking at 35+ games against teams that the Orioles are arguably as good as if not better.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 13, 2012 9:19 PM EST up reply actions
Right. And we'd get a one game playoff against their #1 or #2 SP...
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah, depends which way you're looking at it.
I want to win the division, so I want them to sign Oswalt.
However, if we stay built the way we are, yeah, hopefully we do manage to get a Wild Card spot.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Are we reduced to hoping there's an extra Wild Card spot
and hoping further that we get it?
Great job, Cherington.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Sadly, at the moment, yes.
Of course, this time last year, we had already won the AL East and everyone knows how that actually turned out.
Of course, I am confused… the extra Wild Card spot… does it start in 2012 or 2013?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
It hasn't been decided yet.
They have until March 1st to decide if it will happen in 2012 or else it gets pushed to next year.
The league is trying to work out scheduling issues right now so there is no final decision.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 14, 2012 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
My last info
was that it would be too rushed for this year.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Well, at least my confusion has a good reason.
However, I think we all better be rooting for it to happen this year… might take a lot for this team to get a Wild Card as currently constructed.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Good. This just shows the world how our owners don't care about winning.
It’s all about the bottom line.
My Twitter @totheights
I wish I could invest almost 200 million dollars to show MY apathy
by Sologub on Jan 13, 2012 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 9:55 PM EST up reply actions
C'mon man
We are completely screwed, but this team goes above and beyond. It has nothing to do with not wanting to win, or Liverpool, or anything else. It is due to the utter incompetence of the front office and medical staff.
Everything Must Go.
We already knew it largely was.
The problem was the two hadn’t really conflicted this much until…20 minutes ago.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 8:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, so about that plan to stay near the luxury tax...
Since the Yankees say… screw the luxury tax, get the guy we wanted for money we could have afforded ($10/$11 million)… do we now go shell out big bucks for Jackson, or pay Oswalt whatever he wants on a one year deal?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Jon Heyman already stated that the Red Sox aren't offering guaranteed money to a starter this summer
It’s just not happening.
My Twitter @totheights
I'm not following... this summer?
So, we’re not signing even Oswalt on a one year deal?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Err, I'm in hockey mode. Where FA is in the summer.
He said we aren’t giving out guaranteed money, so no we likely aren’t signing Oswalt to a 1 year deal.
My Twitter @totheights
That's ridiculous.
One year deal is what we need, and reload next FA. We need at least one, and if we missed on Maholm and cannot get Saunders to sign a one year deal, and saw the Yankees add Pineda plus Kuroda, then we need either Oswalt or Jackson.
We know we cannot do Jackson, due to the multi-year contract… so it has to be Oswalt.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well if we are going to suck
then why sign Oswalt…stay under the tax, and hit the market next year when the pitching is better
I don't think we're going to suck.
So wait… are we actually beginning to think that we’re throwing the towel in on the 2012 season here??
Like really going with Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Bard/Aceves and seeing whether we’re good enough (with this offense) to make the playoffs??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
In other words, I really do think we're one SP away from contending for the AL East.
But this deal means we have fewer choices, and are less likely to get a bargain for that #4 guy (whether Oswalt or even Saunders.)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Oh nice... my computer did a double post.
Even better.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Can't imagine a #4 starter
being the difference between the playoffs or not, but its possible I guess
I think not getting Harden at the deadline last year.
(Or someone else with Bedard…)
Is what left us out of the playoffs last year…
My point is that we didn’t have enough starting in 2011 (with Lackey, Dice K and Wake in the rotation) and we have even less heading into 2012.
And it isn’t just playoffs, right? When do the new Wild Card rules go into effect? Winning the division means you have a playoff round instead of a playoff game…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
if it makes you feel any better
when we were dying in April, Harden was putting up an ERA of 7, so I’m not sure that not getting him was a bad call.
Now if they’d been able to get Fister… Life would’ve looked a lot better then and now.
I assume you mean September instead of April?
I mean, we died both months and that’s why I still have hope for 2012. We seriously cannot put up two months as bad as those again this year.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I also think, ERA aside, that we needed a starter that got through 5 innings...
… we seriously couldn’t buy 5 innings from a SP in September, and even if he got shelled, I feel like Harden could have done that once, which might have been enough to take a little stress off the bullpen and get us that ONE win more that we needed to make the playoffs…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I am of the opinion
It was a big piece of the issue in 2011. We missed by a couple of outs, really. But if we had a decent guy in there instead of Lackey, Wake, Miller it would’ve made a difference. Not the only thing that went wrong or would’ve made a difference but it is well publicized just how terrible the back of our rotation was.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 13, 2012 9:31 PM EST up reply actions
No, we're not that smart
We will waste money trying to bail water out of our sinking ship, rather than return to shore and try again later.
Everything Must Go.
Okay... what is going on?
I had a whole paragraph written under this too…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
There we go... refresh and the double posts and one liner disappear.
There are the actual posts I wrote.
Sorry for my confusion.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
So fewer wins in 2012 than we had in 2011?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I don't think we'll do worse than last year
We might lose more to the Yanks, but no way the O’s kick us around again. Of course I’m not sure 90 wins is good enough
Quantum Woodworking: Hand crafted pens, bottle stoppers, bowls and more.
Check out our blog
Why is there no way that the O's kick us around again?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Regression to the mean?
They’re a bad team, and shouldn’t have beaten the hell out of us in 2011, so…
I mean, I’m not saying they won’t, but we can hope?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Didn't we learn anything in the 90s?
I thought we were the poster boys for big offense loses first round playoff series if they don’t have good pitching.
Hence the Pedro/Schilling combo in 2004 and Schilling/Beckett combo in 2007 (with depth behind them)…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
In 2004, those guys looked pretty solid.
Lowe: 14-12 5.42 ERA/1.42 WHIP over 182 IP (following 17-7 and 21-8 seasons)
Wakefield: 12-10 4.87 ERA/1.38 WHIP over 188 IP.
Arroyo: 10-9 4.03 ERA/1.22 WHIP over 178 IP.
(before becoming a legit SP for the Reds)
I don’t know… that looks like better depth than we have now. You think we have three SPs backing up our current top two that will give us 180 IP??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Those are also decent numbers for the era they pitched in.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
Especially considering that Lowe was the worst of them...
… and got the Win in the decisive game in all three rounds of the playoffs too.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
HE SAID HE WAS GOING TO CHANGE!
*see “The asking prices have come down…” for reference
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
We have too much dead money
We are paying Lackey 15, Dice-K (10 + 10 if you allocate the posting fee, which any financial guy would), Crawford (19.5).
These contracts are just killing us. They have destroyed our roster flexability.
As of this moment the 2012 Red Sox are the third best team in the division.
Possibly the fourth
The Jays are looking pretty good too.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
That's too far
If you don’t think Henry and Co care about winning, than you HAVE to accept that 28 of 29 other owners in MLB don’t give two craps either. If you can accept that, fine, but if you can’t, your mental logic is messed.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Okay... everyone that has been saying we should be patient... I want to hear you loud and clear.
BLAAAAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
Anyone think we’re going to get a deal for Oswalt or Jackson (or even Joe Saunders at this point), now that the Yankees have traded for a great young RH and signed Kuroda?
Please tell me one of these is just a rumor that falls through…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I've been saying that's the guy I want all along.
However, what just disappeared was any sense of leverage we had for a “deal.” At this point, Ben is going to have to PAY for whatever SP we get… including the “bargain” option of Joe Saunders.
That hope that he’d drop his 3 year deal demand? Not sure I see that now… this is why $4.75 million for Maholm should have been spent (even with the option thrown in), and why we should have been aggressive to get Oswalt or Kuroda signed before the Yankees made their move.
The problem isn’t that they got Kuroda, is that our options have decreased even as our opponent got better.
So the cost just jumped… no more bargain deal. Now we have to pay the market cost of the Yankees making the move first.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I'm not sure the cost is really up that much
Yes, the Red Sox will be perceived by the public to have to respond to this, but the bottom line is that now the MFY are out of the FA market (I would think).
With two rotation holes fixed...
So, the Sox can no longer fill #4 with Joe Saunders and #5 with Bard, right?
I mean, the Yankees rotation had two huge question marks (much like ours) and now it has 5 legit SPs. So, we need Oswalt/Jackson in the #4 spot, and they know it… so getting a bargain on either isn’t likely, right?
Or do you think Joe Saunders will still take a one year deal with us? I think we lose the leverage with another big target (Kuroda) following one of the low cost targets (Maholm) out of the pool.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
But Oswalt now can't play the Yankees off the Sox
And not many teams can afford to pay 8 million bucks for an old SP, or are in a position where it makes sense to do so.
Not sure he needs to.
There are other teams out there that need a SP, and if Kuroda got $10/$11 million, one of them will compete with us for Oswalt.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah, I was trying to think of the five guys and couldn't without Garcia.
Fine… they have four legit SPs (Pineda looked solid in 2011, could develop well for them in 2012), and Garcia… I still like their rotation better than Lester/Beckett/Buchholz/Bard/Aceves (which, I think, is what we have right now).
I think that’s the first time in a long time that I’ve liked their rotation better than ours.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Okay, but... this is their rotation, in my opinion...
CC Sabathia
Kuroda
Burnett
Hughes
Pineda
I don’t know… I like our front three against their front three, and Bard might end up being better than Hughes when all is said and done. Our line up is a lot better, I think.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Thanks, I was lost trying to piece that together.
Though Pineda as your #2 might be a little early for 2012. I’d put Kuroda there before I put him there. 2013-2015? Yeah, Pineda’s a great piece for your future.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Sure.
Any order. Kuroda or Nova could be #2, really was just listing the 5 I expect to fill the rotation.
Why
Their closer is better than ours. Soriano was actually pretty good in September, and Robertson was awesome. Robertson and Rivera are arguably better than Bailey and Melancon.
It's Lester
just to completely fuck us over.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure Bob was being serious about judging their bullpen
I think it was more jokingly saying that Burnett and Hughes are a disaster and since the guy he was responding to indicated they would be in the bullpen, they would tarnish the bullpen and make it suck.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 13, 2012 11:09 PM EST up reply actions
Yanks pen will suck?
Have you heard of Mariano Rivera, or David Robertson, or Rafael Soriano? I guess not..
The funny thing is that the guy you haven’t heard of – Robertston – is probably the best reliever on the team, if not all of baseball.
Let's cut through the crap, Vaughn. I only got one thing to say to you: "Strike this mother f*cker out."
"Whatever I do, I love to win. I don't care if it's tennis or ping pong, I'll kill myself to win it." --Andy Pettitte
I think you missed the spirit of his comment.
Read the whole conversation again start to finish and try again.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Look at my post 2 inches above yours
I believe Bob was joking.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 14, 2012 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Dream on
CC counts as a 1 because he is a legitimate ace, 20 wins, 200+K’s, 200++ innings. Sox don’t have one of those.
Can anybody post a PANIC BUTTON in the frontpage please!!
Now we sign oswalt & saunders to compete with the rays…..
Hoping to became a Stud!
Wow
Thank goodness this blog has Matthew Kory’s perspective, wit and solid writing. I keep forgetting to skip the foolishness that has become the comment sections in the last year or so. It’s Jan. 13, for Pedro’s sake.
Again, I don't care that we didn't get Kuroda.
I care that this means the asking price for the remaining starters just went up. We’re desperate now, and this is going to cost us. That’s the reason I was saying we needed to move more aggressively.
Yes, it’s January… but Pineda is the real deal (I’m floored that the Mariners traded him, even for Montero), and they paired him with Kuroda. We could still win the AL East, but not unless we start with adding a good #4, meaning those guys know we’re going to pay them what they want.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Did it really go up?
Starters were on high demand, now we are the only ones in desperate need for them so there is less demand but the agents have more leverage. I think its just the same as it was before
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 13, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't believe that we're the only team bidding on SP at this point.
Maybe I’m wrong.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
If its any consolation
I think PSA was probably a little bit like this (not completely, but a little bit) after the Crawford and Gonzo deals last offseason.
Wait...
Did that first sentence happen?
Did I read that correctly?
What is this I don’t even
Everything Must Go.
x
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
Yyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
uuhhhhhhh……
Hmmm.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Indeed.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
We already have him...
… we just call him John Lackey.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 13, 2012 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
THIS.
Lackey was Step 1 in our bid to actually become the Yankees.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I would never have thought
Edwin Jackson would have to settle for a one year deal… Now I’m not so sure.
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I think at this point
he gets something along the lines of a Soriano deal. 2-3 year deal with an opt out, so if he pitches well, he can still get himself a big deal before he turns 30. He wouldn’t need to settle for the at all, but it’s pretty much the only way in his career that he’ll get something along the lines of the Lackey/Burnett deal that he’s aiming for.
YEAH IN CASE ANYONE WAS WONDERING
THAT’S WHAT I WAS FUCKING TALKING ABOUT.
Jesus Christ. Get me some fucking pitching.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Need cat pictures?
Or are you ready to throw in the towel and go with the flow like me?
Everything Must Go.
NEVER.
I need booze. And tomorrow I will smash something.
Christ, I was having such a nice night…..stupid Internet.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Yeah, is it beer thirty??
Seriously… I don’t want to throw in the towel.
Sign me some SP!!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Stick to the Carbon Monoxide approach
Just let the warm sleepiness take over, and you fall asleep.
Everything Must Go.
Suck it Yankees
We just avoided arbitration with Sweeney. $1.75M
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Meh, Seeney might amount to something
and its not like we’ve got anyone else to play RF…….heck we paid some DH schmoo 1.25 million back in 2003 and look where that got us
Well with hindsight
it of course seems asanine, but it’s not like Ortiz back in 2002 was a world burner. He was coming off of a decent season but had just put up a 0.799 OPS the year prior and had no position.
Just saying that small contracts for guys with
some potential can payoff – in any cases much more so that long term deals for fading FAs
but one year deals with guys like kuroda
thats the right kind of free agency move
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
by gizmosandy on Jan 13, 2012 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Or Maholm for $4.75 million with a $6.5 million option.
Those are smart moves to make.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
agreed on the smaller depth moves
but one year 10 million dollar deals are gems
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
See Beltre, Adrian
I still have hope that we give Oswalt a one year deal, and like Beltre, he plays with a chip on his shoulder, rebuilds his value and this time it gets us to the World Series.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well, at 26 Trotter
Had a .378 OBP, 106 OPS+ with truly excellent OF defense. Sweeney had a 91.
Everything Must Go.
Does that mean we've got more money for SP??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
No
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
We aren't spending money on pitching.
The Red Sox have made it damn clear.
Bottom line before Championship. New era in Red Sox baseball.
My Twitter @totheights
Same era
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
Tell me they didn't see revenue shoot skyward after '04
Hasn’t it been proven, time and again, that you make money if you win?
Of course it can be argued that they already spent on pitching...
We just won’t see any returns on it this year.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
I remember the late 90's early 2000's
when Sox fans would constantly complain about Yankees buying championships. Then we got spoiled.
by dennet on Jan 13, 2012 9:52 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well, this was my big concern last offseason.
We’d become the Yankees by buying Crawford/Gonzo.
However, I’m not asking them to buy a championship. I’m asking them to spend money on SP, which due to the injuries to Lackey, Dice K, possibly even Tazawa, we currently need.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
x
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
"Every day is a great day for hockey."
yep thats about right
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Well...
… crying Hines Ward actually makes me feel better.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 14, 2012 6:00 PM EST up reply actions
Yay.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 13, 2012 9:25 PM EST up reply actions
So what, exactly, are we dealing with here?
They’re not going to guarantee any starting pitcher money. Which means they’re not signing an SP. Which means Beckett/Lester/Buchholz/Aceves/Bard. And a much weaker pen. Everyone’s a year older and a year more fragile. Christ.
Well, it’s nice to see everyone again, at least.
I'd actually say our Pen is stronger than last year.
But it won’t matter if you never have a lead to begin with as the starter has given up 10 runs.
My Twitter @totheights
Well said.
Where’s Robert? He swears that we should keep adding more bullpen arms, not a starter.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Sitting in the corner crying to himself
“It’s okay, we can still sign Isringhausen”
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 11:15 PM EST up reply actions
I think they'll offer Oswalt an incentive-laden contract - depending on health/starts.
They pretty much have to at this point. It gives them the best bottom line against injury and Oswalt the max value if healthy.
should have been in on Lowe
really should have
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I think so yes, for 5 million he is worth the risk
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I'd take that bet
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I think Lowe can put together a nice season
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Can I throw Maholm in there instead of Lowe?
I love Lowe, but with what they paid Maholm in Chicago, I’m still pissed we didn’t move on that deal.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Agreed
If I lived in New England, there would be such an angry mob.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
He's 11 billion years old.
And his stats have been declining every year since we let him go. Let him rot in Cleveland.
by Anthony Emerson on Jan 13, 2012 9:32 PM EST up reply actions
5 million dollars is worth that risk
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
$4.75 million for Maholm (even with the option) would have been a better risk.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
if they put bard back in the pen and signed 2 starters
might be the greatest bullpen ever
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
or his arm could fall off
why fix what is not broke?
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Our rotation IS broken.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:35 PM EST up reply actions
which is why you do not take such a big gamble in this position
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Unless you're not going to spend any money
Which seems to be the case.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:38 PM EST up reply actions
well I'm just saying Maholm/Bedard
and Kuroda, Bard to closer call it a winter
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Really wasn't a lot of money for those three, right?
But Bedard seemed to choose the Pirates over us, and possibly Maholm did too… not sure.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
there are/were starters available
Bedard/Kuroda on one year deals better plan than Bard
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
But they are both much older and already on the downslope
Sox are hoping they can turn Bard into a top starter on the cheap
I get it, but do not agree with it
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
If it works its a goldmine
if not then they probably ruin Bard’s career (of course he wants to do it so)
Let's be clear.
He’s willing to do it. However, not necessarily the same as “wants” to do it. I don’t think he could have answered the question he was asked any other way.
I’m sure if he’d been asked if he “wants” to close, he’d have been happy to say yes to that too.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Dice K and Lackey disagree.
They think the value of their contracts looks pretty good from where they’re sitting.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
No, but we probably will.
We have been signing every reclaimation project available….to non-gauranteed deals.
My Twitter @totheights
Hey, last year we were mocking the Yankees for signing Garcia/Colon.
How’d that work out for them?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I'm not disagreeing with your point actually.
Just pointing out that they seem to win whichever strategy they employ.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I assume...
… “saving the day” means he’ll be bringing me scotch. Because that’s what I need.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 14, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Red Sox and OF Ryan Sweeney avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $1.75 million contract.
Sweeney, who was acquired from the Athletics last month in the Andrew Bailey deal, earned $1.4 million last season while batting .265/.346/.341 with one home run, 25 RBI and a .687 OPS over 299 plate appearances. The Red Sox will likely sign add an outfielder prior to spring training, but Sweeney still figures to get plenty of playing time in right field.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
.720 career, better against righties, plays to Fenway's strengths.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
I like the platoon
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
That too
When healthy
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:42 PM EST up reply actions
he's a very good defender, if you watch him
pretty much all he has going for him, but he is a very good defender
Oh, another outfielder?
Fantastic! World Series year.
by Anthony Emerson on Jan 13, 2012 9:39 PM EST up reply actions
No, I was referencing
the part of the quote when it says “the Red Sox will likely sign add[sic] an outfielder prior to Spring Training.”
by Anthony Emerson on Jan 13, 2012 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, actually... I don't want us spending more money there.
Starting pitching, fellas… what don’t we understand here.
We didn’t get much offense from RF in 2011, and our offense was ridiculous. We don’t need more offense, we need more PITCHING!!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
he already was on the team
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
can we get Dempster
as compensation ha!
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Trade for Floyd.
Gavin Floyd, why do you guys not agitate for it, he is an AL East Assassin, just don’t start him against Toronto.
if we make another big trade , our farm is destroyed
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
None of the trades so far have really hurt.
One for a starter really would.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
i was speaking about the vmart/agon deals
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Ah. We're recovering nicely from those.
Barnes, Swihart, Bogaerts, Lavarnway, Middlebrooks is a very solid core. Add in guys like Wilson and Kalish at high levels, and it’s really one of the more underrated systems.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:48 PM EST up reply actions
but if they trade away 3 or 4 of those guys
then what?
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Ranuado, Brentz, Jacobs, Bradley Jr, Owens
Still have plenty to offer.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
with the way kenny williams trades
he’ll be really high on some anonymous A-level players for some inexplicable reason.
If it was any other GM I’d agree the trade would take a big bite out of the farm.
by dennet on Jan 13, 2012 9:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Really?
We have starting pitching in AAA or AA? Were recovering nicely from losing Masterson?
ChiSox just reupped him for 5 years
So he could still be traded, obviously, but it seems kind of silly to sign a guy long-term and then try to trade him. Does nothing but kill his value.
Plus, you know, one more big trade and our farm turns into Nebraska, like giz said.
I thought they extended Danks
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will they sell pink hats and membership cards
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Ha ha...well done.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Actually
He gave up 9 runs in 12 innings against the Orioles and he gave up 12 runs in 10 innings against the Yankees. He got smoked and got lucky.
That is not an AL East Assassin in any way. None. Wins don’t mean anything unless you think that Lackey was only slightly worse than Beckett.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 13, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
Well done.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
Well, good game gentlemen.
Good to know we won’t have to worry about whether or not we’ll have baseball in October.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 9:55 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 9:58 PM EST up reply actions
he collects the sweat of the hitters on his team
after he hits the opposition, and pours it on himself
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
He has Youk disease
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I would have gone with Aceves...
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jan 15, 2012 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
And I was just thinking how shitty their rotation looks...
Upside: they lost a great piece in Montero. But wow, dang.
Montero was a DH
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 9:57 PM EST up reply actions
Yep
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 10:08 PM EST up reply actions
Glad he won't be in the Bronx next year.
"If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life." Manny Somebody-or-other
by Tessie's Dad on Jan 13, 2012 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
He's probably more of a sure thing than Pineda.
Everything’ll be fine.
by revived0103 on Jan 13, 2012 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
The Kuroda move>Pineda move
Pineda is a fly ball pitcher…..who was pretty bad against AL comp last year. He is going to get hammered in that thing they call a stadium in New York. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him give up 30 HRs this year.
My Twitter @totheights
Yes but he gots tons of Ks with good control.
by revived0103 on Jan 13, 2012 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
And he's young and developing.
I think he’s going to be solid for a while.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Jesus Montero must be happy
Now he can play without all the hate MFY would of spewed when he didnt turn out to be Thurman Munson 2.0.
Oh, go ahead.
Take a flyer…
"If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life." Manny Somebody-or-other
by Tessie's Dad on Jan 13, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions
What?
Did I say something?
"If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life." Manny Somebody-or-other
by Tessie's Dad on Jan 13, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
He'll be happy with the playing time
But the ballpark will hurt his numbers.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
the tink league will accept you
you will be laying with
Berkshirefan
revhalo
and all of dRaysbay
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
playing with not laying with
yikes
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Now we're crossing the line, Sandy!
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
that was an accident
seriously, very sorry if i could edit i would
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
If we need more players, I'll sign up.
I hadn’t even started looking at Fantasy Baseball yet.
Having a hard time, with the state of the Sox at the moment…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
So, can we call the Crawford deal a failure now?
Dude can’t play his position in Fenway, and has prevented us from acquiring an acceptable pitching staff. Likewise Lackey.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Wow
And you were Klutch Karl’s biggest supporter.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Wait till he's bad in 2012.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
and he thought pressure was bad last year
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I really hope 2011 is the blip in his HOF career.
For the love of God, it better be.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah, I'll set it up.
Answered you elsewhere. I haven’t even started thinking about it yet, but I’ll do it in the next week or so.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
He's a player entirely driven by BABIP
and completely unsuited to Fenway’s LF. He’s gonna suck for a while.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
I still think, until you can figure out how the BABIP factor plays in on speed guys...
… it’s too early to write him off. Ellsbury’s 2009 was fueled by a huge BABIP, and everyone wanted to get rid of him (Gizmo still wants to)… but look at his 2011.
Funny thing is, we thought Carl would be the one that would develop 20+ (maybe even 30+) HR power… I still think Carl develops into a lesser Rickey Henderson by the time this deal is done. Now, if we could just convince him to move to CF when Ellsbury leaves in free agency.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Why?
I don’t think we ever should have signed a player whose performance depends so much on luck. I honestly wonder if Theo wasn’t sabotaging the Sox, setting them up for big gains his last couple of years there so he could bring in a big payday from his next team, then let them collapse when he left.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
Okay, that wouldn't have worked.
I honestly think we screwed up dumping him.
For all the folks moaning about Lackey, Crawford, Dice K… he did do well with Beltre, Gonzo, Aceves. I think all the other teams out there (hence how quickly the Cubs moved to get him to repeat history there) would love to have him and his mistakes.
Keep in mind, for all the hate out there right now… only one other team has won two World Series in the same window we’ve won two World Series… actually, since 2001, right? The Cardinals winning their second this year gives them two, and us two since 2001.
We’ve had a lot of success and an epic collapse. So we run the architect of our success out of town. Crawford will very likely end up being a very good MLB player, even if he doesn’t end up with a HOF career.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I sincerely doubt that
Even in his “big” year, he only put up an OPS of .851, hardly Hall of Fame-worthy. He also is the exact opposite of what Fenway needs as far as a defensive left fielder goes.
If you want him to be in the Hall, trade him to the Pirates or Padres, if you want him to suck, he should stay in Fenway.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Well, again... like Henderson, I'd like to see some of that value come as a CF.
I’m not saying he’ll be a HOF guy, I’m saying he’ll finish as a very good MLB player, and I expect he’ll earn his contract too.
For our sake, I hope I’m right.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I hope you are too
I just don’t see it ever happening.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 12:40 AM EST up reply actions
A player driven by BABIP?
I’m not sure what you’re getting at here (David?).
Crawford’s strong career BABIP is a function of his abilities as a player.
That his 2011 BABIP was some 30 points below his career average was bad luck, not a sign that the +8 previous years were a reflection of good luck.
We can all hope.
I understand the people around here that don’t believe he’ll turn it around, but I honestly think he will.
And, I’ll say it again… For our sake, I hope I’m right.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
+1
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
If he plays well he's earned the deal
They are not completely hamstrung. They can pay for the one year deals, they’re just choosing not to.
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I might be the only one
but I think Bobby V. will be great for CCrawford. I expect a great year from both him and Ells. Bobby V. likes to run.
If that gets Carl going again, then Bobby V will be a savior.
Whatever it takes to get the guy we signed for $150+ million to perform, I’m all for.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
you have been accepted in the tink league
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
There is a fanpost about setting up leauges
Looks like there will be two or three
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Oh, I can do that too.
I just hadn’t gotten around to setting it up yet. Seriously, so early…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Nobody's older than Gizmo here
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 10:10 PM EST up reply actions
Worlds oldest living man????
gizmo, someone is here to take your title.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Genesis
1:1 In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth.
1:2 And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters.
1:3 And God said, Let there be light: and there was light.
1:4 And God saw the light, that it was good: and God divided the light from the darkness.
1:5 And God created NJ Native. He was warm and fuzzy.
1:6 And God said, Let there be Red Sox, so NJ Native might cheer.
1:7 And God created New Jersey, so that “NJ” might stand for something. That was a mistake.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
by Bloggy on Jan 14, 2012 6:17 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
If Sox isn't going to reach the postseason game this year,
They would have to bigin rebuilding mode?
Hell!
Bernie Williams.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
So if we're not trying to contend this year
Can we flip Ells and Youk for prospects? Please?
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Id be on that boat
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 13, 2012 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
Keep Ells
Youk is expendable. Very expendable.
"If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life." Manny Somebody-or-other
by Tessie's Dad on Jan 13, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Ells is gone after this year anyway
might as well get something valuable for him in return.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, true.
Sad to say.
"If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life." Manny Somebody-or-other
by Tessie's Dad on Jan 13, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Ells will get you more, and will likely walk at the end of his contract
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Ells' value is at proly the highest it will ever be
I say trade him and Youk, Beckett even. Get rid of big contracts like those and sign more shitty starters this season and wait till the next
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 13, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Depending on the prospects we can get
we could look at 2016 or 2013
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 13, 2012 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
I would just be thrilled with cash relief
Any prospects would be gravy.
And Ben, don’t trade for literal gravy. The fried chicken doesn’t need it.
Everything Must Go.
by Sean O on Jan 13, 2012 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd keep Adrian too
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:18 PM EST up reply actions
Isnt really an option
With a big contract like that
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 13, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Beltre?
That ship sailed….
(And yes, I know you mean Gonzo)
"If your happiness depends on Boston winning or losing, you have to get a life." Manny Somebody-or-other
by Tessie's Dad on Jan 13, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
At first base, Bugs Bunny ....
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
been saying trade ells forever
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
While we are at it
can we adopt the OLD rays uniforms – that is what they used to do so we might as well look like them.
As long as you are OK with Ellsbury in a Yankee uniform
bc if we dont resign him, thats who will get him.
So yeah, trade him for prospects with the knowledge that he will be back in Fenway real quick.
Do you really think this team is going to shell out Crawford money for Ells when it comes time?
When they already have Crawford (who they clearly signed anticipating replacing “injury prone” and “soft” Ellsbury with before his MVP campaign in 2011)?
I mean, that, for me is the biggest frustration with the Crawford deal, which I think will work out in the long run. It means we don’t sign the home grown guy that, frankly, I find a lot of fun to watch even if he doesn’t push all the right sabermetric buttons for defense, baserunning or hitting.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I'm planning my trip to Arizona for the Lions/Cardinals game
anyone interested in joining me? It’s not like we’ll have playoff baseball to watch.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
You are asking... if people want to watch...
the Detroit Lions play the Arizona Cardinals… on a New England site…
Everything Must Go.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jan 13, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions
Might as well have some fun
And I’m an awesome guy to watch football with.
(It was more a statement of how much we suck, Sean)
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Hope the Lions and Pats play the next season.
Would be a lot of fun to watch with you guys.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
Two seasons from this one, the 2013-2014 season
I already know the Lions opponents this year, we play the NFC West and the AFC South.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Since 2007 the Red Sox havent had one prospect being called up and gained a starting role
Thats the problem.
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 13, 2012 10:26 PM EST reply actions
We traded all our good ones
for Adrian and Victor
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Trading for Victor was a waste
Too much for too little.
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 13, 2012 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
If we had made the playoffs in 2010 I would have disagreed.
But since we didn’t…
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 13, 2012 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
It hasn't turned out well
But only because Masterson became a very surprising ace in Cleveland. Can’t predict that. Gotta move on.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jan 13, 2012 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
I was completely against the Victor trade at the time
But in retrospect, I do that 10 times out of 10.
Everything Must Go.
Josh Reddick was our starting RF, right?
Just looking for one.
Buchholz is after 2007 too, right? Bard?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I'll give you Bard, rightfully so
Reddick lasted 2 months
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 14, 2012 4:09 AM EST up reply actions
Are you contending the problem is
That are farm isn’t producing major league level players? Or that “the” problem is that we aren’t holding onto the ones that do come up.
Because they are two different things, really.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 14, 2012 8:20 AM EST up reply actions
What I am really saying is that
The farm isnt producing enough talent to be able to trade some and keep some, so we would have been better off by holding on to those that did come up
"I don't put any foreign substances on the baseball. Everything I use is from the good old U.S.A."
JVSM
Pedroya Lova
by Dustin's #1 Fan on Jan 14, 2012 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Buchholz was prior to 2007?
Even if he lost the 2011 campaign, I’d say he was a quality player for 2010 to make the cut on this, along with Bard.
I assume we’re calling Ellsbury 2007, since he did help us win the World Series that season. I think we all anticipate Lavarnway becoming a starter in 2012, and maybe Kalish too?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
It's okay guys, Javier Vasquez is still available.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
A pitcher than can pitcher everywhere...
… except the AL East. Suckered the Yankees twice.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Well. Had a good night's sleep. Woke up.
Still pissed. Unreal.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Whoa now.
Read this....felt better.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Ben Cherington = Omar Minaya
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 8:59 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not even upset with Ben
He’s in a pretty similar position to Obama when he came into office: out of money, a laundry list of problems, and a pissed off populace. We can’t expect miracles over night after Theo ruined our club.
I would love if Ben had Anthopolous’ ability to trade away toxic assets, because this team needs an enema pretty severely. Clear the decks, and see what we can do. Sadly, probably from fourth place.
Everything Must Go.
I wouldn't be upset with Ben if he didn't make stupid trades.
He seems to be going into this “Bard for starter” thing full-bore. I can’t imagine that he couldn’t have dealt Lowrie and Reddick for at least one starter, but instead he dealt them for bullpen help that we didn’t need. He’s basically put the Sox in a situation where he can say “We have to move Bard to starter, we have no place else to play him.”
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 9:36 AM EST up reply actions
He can't deal those guys for a starter,
if the other teams don’t deem them worthy of trading a starter for them. That’s what happened in this case, the Mariners valued Montero more than Lavarnway, despite the fact that you could probably make the case those two are pretty much equal. Montero may have a better bat, but Lavarnway maybe a better defender at this point.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
Then, I have to wonder,
Why is Ryan our 5th string catcher after we bring back Tek’s corpse?
Everything Must Go.
Don't ask me I've been saying that Lavarnway should be on this team from day one.
I think the Varitek things is the fact he hasn’t signed with another team, there’s no shot of him making this team, so why invite him back? Lou Merloni basically tweeted why not just kick him inthe groin while your at it
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 9:58 AM EST up reply actions
Are you suggesting we were in talks with the Mariners?
Offering Lavarnway for Pineda? Do you think we’d have done that deal?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
No, Bradford pointed out on twitter.
That the Mariners people valued Montero more than Lavarnway, because of his bat. They may have offered him, but just pointing out that different teams value players differenty.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Which makes little or no sense in Safeco.
A stellar pitcher is a lot more valuable there than a big bat (which, as Beltre and others have demonstrated, often comes up short in that pitcher’s park)…
I still don’t know why they made this deal.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
I don't know why either.
But even if we had offered Lavarnway, we probably wouldn’t get Pineda. The good news is Bradford pointed that a lot scouts like lot Lavarnway better, so IF, and that’s a huge IF IMO, we ever had to trade Lavarnway, maybe we could somebody better than Pineda.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 15, 2012 2:59 PM EST up reply actions
Ha ha ha!
That’s a nice way to look at it.
On the plus side, maybe Pineda wilts under the scrutiny in New York, and they don’t have Montero’s bat waiting in the wings at DH/C anymore…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Pineda didn't have such a great second half.
And his numbers against the Sox were really bad. Two starts, I know small sample size, but still I don’t think he is as good as everybody’s making him out to be, esp. when you consider Cashman said “Pineda better turn out to be the Ace of the Yankees staff or I would have made a huge mistake.” Now, had the MFY traded for King Felix, I’d be seriously worried.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 17, 2012 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
Not true
Ben HAD the money to get a solid starter for the rotation.
He then moved Bard to the rotation and spent maybe over half of what was left on moves to replenish the pen and to replenish the players he traded and sign a backup catcher.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
He also has failed to reach a contract with Ortiz,
which could seriously help in the financials of this team. They should have never offered him arb.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Offering him arb was the right move.
I’d have done it. Offering arb does not preclude them from agreeing to a multi-year deal, it happens every year. Of course if I was doing it, I’d probably have gotten that multi-year deal done by this point.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
They should have just gotten the multi-year deal done.
He really didn’t have a market at the time. It doesn’t sound like they will be able to come to an agreement by Tuesday, which is the deadline for arbtration eligible players to agree with their teams so they can avoid arbitration.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
no, the deadline to agree to terms and avoid arbitration
is when both sides enter the arbitration room, in February/March. Tuesday is when the exchange figures for if they go to arbitration.
Ok. Thanks that wasn't clear in the tweets I had been reading.
But my point was that they should have been able to get new deal with Ortiz without having to even offer him arb. He really had no market. If they had been able to get him for say 2/20, the teams financials would be better, and maybe they would have been able to sign a legit starter by now.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
They can still get that deal
But offering him arb was still the right move. We probably wouldn’t have worked out a contract by the deadline anyway and at the time we were still in line to get picks if he declined. It would have been irresponsible not to offer it. If he accepts, we have months to work out a new deal since we are exclusive with him. 2/20 is still something that can be worked out, but I’d still take him back happily at say 1/14 if that’s what it takes. The things he does for this lineup are priceless.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Yeah, but when a team's greatest need is not offense.
They probably would have been exclusive with him anyway because the teams that need a DH, other than Red Sox, until yesterday, couldn’t afford him. I just think having an unknown expenditure at this point has cost the Red Sox some quality pitchers. If they truly what Ortiz’s salary was going to be, they probably could have made a move for a legit starter by now.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Here's the thing
If we didn’t keep Ortiz, we were going to need offense anyway. Ortiz was a huge part of that lineup, he made the batters on either side of him in the lineup better. His output alone was worth a few wins. If he left, it would have been more pressure on the others to make up for him.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
Who could have signed him other than the Red Sox?
Until yesterday, when the Yankees traded their DH, there’s no team that could have afforded him.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
My main point of saying Cherington's failed to neogtiate a more team friendly deal with Ortiz,
is the failure to do so, has created uncertainity around his salary. At the beginning of the off-season, I thought it was smart to let him walk, but then after thinking about it and analyzing things, I realized they needed him. But I would have made sure Ortiz would have been signed before the date to even offer arbrtitration, so that way, the Red Sox could have a greater understanding of what they could spend on pitching. As it stands right now Ortiz is scheduled to make between $13-15 million. The budget at the beginning of the off-season was somewhere around $30 million, if they had been able to get his salary down to $10 or $11 million, they’d have more money for a Kuroda, Oswalt type pitcher. Which would make the team better, but not knowing his salary has created some uncertanity, which business people hate.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that waiting this long has been a bad step
But offering him arbitration in the first place was the right move to make at the time. There just had to be a follow up to get something done. Ortiz wanted to be here and we wanted him to stay here it shouldn’t have been this hard to work out a deal.
Offering Arb to Ortiz and signing a few veteran pitchers to minor league deals are really the only things Ben has done that I’ve agreed with this offseason.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
I think they should have gotten some done before the
period of offering arb. started. That way they could have said “Ok, we have Ortiz @ $10 million or so, so that gives us X million to sign a starter or two.” But the failure to do so and every day that goes by and every move we make shrinks the pie.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 3:19 PM EST up reply actions
Of course it stands to reason that they may have the bulk of it hammered down
And there isn’t much uncertainty at all. But as for possible destinations, just about any AL East team and the Angels come to mind as possible destinations at the start of FA. Obviously the number is much smaller now with Pujols et al signing.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
But had they really pushed for deal,
like when they had exclusive negotiating rights with him, and got the deal done, any of those destinations would have been taken off the table, and the Sox would know his salary and how that affected their ability to get pitcher X, Y or Z.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
They may have, but Ortiz may have wanted to test the market thinking that there may be enough interest.
It is absolutely a mistake letting it drag out this long.
Signing him should have been done by the winter meetings at the latest. But offering him arb is not the mistake.
I am Sandy's bitch.
Penn State Forever
They didn't even off er him a contract during that period, he said as much
That’s not pushing for a deal.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 4:05 PM EST up reply actions
Getting Ortiz for a one-year deal
Means Lavarnway has a spot to come to in 2012. That means $15 million freed up after this year for a better free agent pitching class by far.
As much as I want them to sign a starter (and Oswalt on a one-year deal should absolutely be done for an extra $8 million over what they wanted to spend is the right thing to do. But keeping Papi for a one year deal is the right thing to do when they would only save 3-4 million this year and be stuck with Lavarnway in triple AAA in 2013.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 14, 2012 9:22 PM EST up reply actions
Typo:
first sentence should be that LAVA has a place to come into in 2013.
by The Name is Dalton on Jan 14, 2012 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't talking about him leaving
More about getting his deal done, however long it is, would have been smart.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
However, Big Papi isn't taking a one year deal for less money.
So, essentially, getting that one year deal done doesn’t free up any more money for a SP in 2012, and Dalton has a point about 2013.
Of course, if Big Papi puts up another great year at DH, you have to think he costs us another $15 million for 2013, and hard to imagine us letting him walk at that point either.
Based on the last few years (and 2011 in particular), I’d rather give Ortiz $10 million a year for two years than just pay him $14/15 million for 2012.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
The two year deal.
would probably be something in the range of 2/20 or 2/22, not 2/30.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 15, 2012 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
My point is... the argument was against signing him for two years.
i’d rather see 2/$20 or 2/$22 than paying him $13-$15 million this year and then having him put up another strong campaign, and watch us pay him $13/$15 again in 2013.
I mean, it not only offers flexibility for 2012’s decisions, but also anticipates that his last several seasons suggest he’s still going to be an eilte DH for 2013 too.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Is it 2014 yet? Because presumably that's when we'll next compete for a championship.
I’m getting tired of us doing nothing.
We trade for Bailey = They trade for Pineda as a counter move.
They sign Kuroda = We avoid arb with Ryan Sweeney as a counter move.
Don’t get me wrong. I love Bailey and Melancon as our end game guys (and I kind of hope Ace starts so we can put Bard in the 7th/8th with Melancon) and I love that we added… “depth” in Silva and Cook… even if Silva is horrible and Cook is just a shadow of his former self.
But we need a move. Oswalt. Hell, I’d settle for Jackson at this point. Just get us a 4th starter to chew on. We are hungry fans. Feed us.
The Red Sox suck, and I am the dirt that was sucked in, I am a dirty.
I'm narcissistic, nihilistic, and arrogant. That's me in a nutshell.
The Cardinals won the WS with less talent
They won with their ace pitcher on the DL and a rookie 3B and DH and beat a team loaded with talent. The Giants won with 2 pitchers and Cody Ross.
So lets not get crazy and say the season is over.
Once again,
they’re in a fake league in a fake division. They can stumble to 90 wins and have a chance. We would need to win 95+ to have a shot, and that’s not going to happen.
Everything Must Go.
Ton of gloom and doom around here.
I agree that these moves by the MFY are a real kick in the junk. If 10 Mil was the number for Kuroda I really wick Ben would have pulled the trigger on that.
But…still time to sign another starter….and one can always hope that one or two of the scrubs we have pull it together a la the MFY last year.
Go Pats!!!!!!!!!
They won't pull it together
This is the Red Sox, we aren’t lucky like the Yankees or Rays.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions
Well I don't really believe in "luck" that much. I spend too much time doing statistics.
I like to refer to the quote from Seneca, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity”.
The Sox have at least put some sacks of shit in the position to pitch well. So while in general I agree with you TLD, there is a glimmer of hope.
Maybe after Tom Brady gets his pinky finger ring this year he will learn how to throw a curve ball.
I'm hoping TFB comes up big for three NFL games in a row starting today.
I’m putting my hope on Lester and Beckett (and Buchholz I guess) coming up big in important games.
While hoping what other current garbage is put out on mound is able to go 5-6 innings with an ERA under 5 in “unimportant games”.
You and me both.
I see Sean O bashing Brady the way he does Beckett… so, what have you done for me lately.
Three Super Bowl rings and a World Series ring between them, to go with the Celtics banner and the Bruins Cup… what a ridiculous time to be a Boston fan and all I can say is…
BLAAAARGH OMFG SIGN STARTERS!!
However, I’m all in on Brady leading us back to the promised land. After their dominance in the playoffs, losing three in a row cannot sit well. They may have gotten complacent, but I believe BB/TB are hungry for another title this year. My biggest concern is the Ravens, and wondering about the justice of a SuperBowl rematch with the Giants coming around…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Would love to see Stafford/Brady in the Super Bowl next year.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 6:07 PM EST up reply actions
Very plausible if the Lions can improve the D and cut down on the penalties.
The Pats will contend for a few more years based on the Brady, Welker (if he resigns), Gronk, Hernadez combo…and the D can only get better.
I think the D-line will improve as the Lions get "contender" calls
I know this sounds like sour grapes, but I do believe that teams like the Packers, Saints, and Patriots get those offensive holding penalties called for them more than teams like the Lions, Browns, or 49ers, teams who don’t have those idolized players. Now that Stafford has had his epic season, I would expect to get those calls for us too.
Regarding the secondary, the reason we sucked so much the last two weeks was our depth. Our backups sucked so horribly that we had to rush Houston, Wright, and Delmas back before they were totally healthy. If we draft a CB in the later rounds to pair with Berry as backups, the D should perform a lot better.
I definitely think our offense can hang with anyone. CJ obviously is awesome, but what gets overlooked is that Brandon Pettigrew was the third most productive TE last year, behind Gronk and Jimmy Graham. Even if Burleson starts to stumble with age, CJ, Titus, Scheffler, and Grew are a receiving core to be envied, and just like your defense, our running game can only improve.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 6:19 PM EST up reply actions
I feel like Welker's character will be a guy that resigns with the Pats.
He got a couple chances, but no one really gave him the opportunity until he got to New England. He’s been hugely successful here, and works really hard. I find it hard to imagine that he wants to get the big payday somewhere else. I think winning is much more important to him.
Plus, he’s got an example like Branch right there with him in the clubhouse. I would put money that if Branch could go back and do it over again, he wouldn’t take that deal in Seattle, but would have stayed in New England for money that wasn’t that much different (a lot less guaranteed, I suppose)… and I imagine he says as much to Welker.
I was thinking about that last night… when was the last time a WR left a great passing offense, got a big payday on a team that needed a #1 WR, and still played at the top level he was on his old team. Right now, Anquan Boldin is your poster boy – playing on a playoff team, but still not as prolific. TO moved around a lot, but I think that’s a different animal. I remember Alvin Harper leaving the Cowboys, but what did he do after that?
I think Welker stays put.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah, I'm about 95% sure that Welker stays.
The only reason I can think of that he would want to leave is for personal reasons and if he wants to move closer to home/family.
Chung coming back healthy will be huge in beating both the Broncos and potentially the Ravens.
Having a solid run stopping safety is a good thing against both those teams….even though I kind of wish it was a 25 year old Rodney Harrison instead.
I know the Giants have kicked it up a notch lately but I still have trouble seeing them making it out of the NFC. (I’m also very biased and hate the Giants with a passion. Watching the 2007 SB with mostly Giants fans was a traumatic experience.)
You know, that's what I saw yesterday. Chung was everywhere...
Kind of reminds me of when the Steelers played without Polomalu or the Colts without Bob Sanders… totally different defense with Chung out there.
I hope we see that play out again next week in the AFC Championship.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Yeah the defense looked great last night.
Hopefully that is a product of getting healthy and more practice over the last couple weeks and less a product of the Broncos forgetting that there is a reason why the option is not generally used in the NFL.
But….who would have thought that the Pats D would have a better showing against the Broncos than Pitt last week?
Especially considering our big weakness all season had been against the run.
And the Broncos gashed us for 167 yards in the first quarter in December… I think Chung changed the way that defense stopped the run yesterday, and I think we’ve seen similar impact of a safety on the team defense in the other examples I gave.
So, agreed… hope it bodes well for the AFC Championship.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Brady has 2 of the greatest collapses in sports history on his track record
Don’t forget that.
Everything Must Go.
Which two?
I assume you mean the AFC Championship game against the Colts from the 2006 season, which I can hardly put on Brady… I put that on the receiving core with all the drops. All we needed was a first down late in the second half, and his best option (as much as I loved everything he did for us) was an ancient Troy Brown.
And the second would be… what, the 2007 SuperBowl against the Giants? That wasn’t a collapse by the offense, but a failure by the refs to rule Eli Manning in the grasp (we’d gotten a huge roughing the passer penalty a week or two earlier for taking a QB to the ground, and there they don’t call in the grasp?) and because Asante Samuel let a game ending pick go right through his hands, and Harrison went for the pick on the helmet catch instead of just blowing David Tyree up.
Or did you mean another game (the Jets in last year’s AFC Championship?) altogether?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
Brady threw a half dozen passes
5-10 feet over Moss and other receiver’s heads in that game, even when there was no pressure. He completely fell apart when it counted, after bragging earlier in the week about how many points they were going to hang on the Giants. Maybe if he worked as hard as he used to instead of staying home with the supermodel, he could’ve hit wide-open receivers.
He is supposed to be the leader, and they had two crushing losses in a row. Luckily that killed any interest I had in throwlump.
Everything Must Go.
This.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
We had pitchers, but we also had some serious question marks.
Esp. in 04. Could Schilling pitch after his ankle injury? Could Lowe give us anything? 07 was similar. Could Beckett bounce back? What would Matsuzaka give us? My point is to say the Red Sox have had good luck, you don’t make history without luck.
by aubatron2011 on Jan 14, 2012 11:43 AM EST up reply actions
Fine, we haven't had any significant run of good luck since 2008
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
The worst signing this past decade as of this moment?
Crawford, Lackey, Lugo?
I would have to go Lackey right now since Crawford is only a year in…but for me it is very close and that could change pretty quick after this season…
Crawford and Lackey are the reasons we're not fielding a competent pitching staff right now.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 14, 2012 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, today it has to be Lackey.
We’d have to get three years in with Crawford and have him repeat his 2011 numbers, and lose an entire season to a torn ACL (also meaning that he comes back without all the same speed we signed him for) to get to where Lackey is today.
I know, I know… there’s a chance Lackey comes back from Tommy John better than he was in 2010 or 2011, but he’s older than a lot of guys having that surgery, so I’m not as sure he’ll actually be better afterwards.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til THIS year!
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