Buchholz Progressing; Will He Return In 2011?

by Marc Normandin on Sep 16, 2011 9:01 AM EDT in Analysis

Yesterday, prior to game one of a four-game series with the Rays, Clay Buchholz took part in a bullpen session. This may not sound like a big deal, but Buchholz was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his back in the first week of August, and it's kept him off of the mound even longer than that. Boston never ruled out a return in 2011, but it was clear that, unless Buchholz were able to return without jeopardizing his future with the team, he wouldn't see game action again.

With Boston just three games up on Tampa Bay for the Wild Card, John Lackey on his way to posting the loftiest ERA in the history of the franchise for a pitcher with as many innings as he has thrown, and Erik Bedard slowly nursing his way back into the rotation, there is nothing wrong with hoping that Buchholz will be back before the year ends. Despite the recent struggles, this isn't a time for panic just yet, but it is a time to hope for better outcomes, and the return of one of Boston's most talented young players fits under the better outcomes label.

Buchholz threw 30 pitches in his side session, and is expected to have a second bullpen session on Saturday. How he and his back feel the day after these throwing sessions is key for whether he will return or not: if he is throwing off of a mound without pain after a few separate sessions, then it's possible that he is ready to return to action. As Corey Dawkins and Ben Lindbergh stated when he was diagnosed, it's possible, but not simple:

An L2 second lumbar vertebra stress fracture is not as common as one lower in the lumbar spine, but it doesn't necessarily rule him out for the rest of the season. He will follow a very detailed five-tier program to try to get back in time for the playoffs, but it won't be easy.

Getting Buchholz back would accomplish one of two things. If Bedard's lat and knee just won't stop hurting, and he can't get on the mound, then Buchholz would be able to replace the man who was brought in to replace him in the first place. If Bedard is ready to go, though, and Buchholz has returned, it is almost assuredly John Lackey who would be bumped from the playoff rotation.

Lackey has the high price tag, and it's pretty clear his teammates and managers love the guy despite his struggles, but the Sox will put the best rotation together that they can. Just like that rotation wouldn't include Tim Wakefield, Andrew Miller, or Kyle Weiland, it likely wouldn't include Lackey.

That's what getting Buchholz back would mean. He may not be as sharp as we expect if he does make a return, given he's been out for so long, but chances are good he would still be able to out-pitch Lackey. And, as long as coming back this year isn't causing further damage to Buchholz in any way, then that is all that matters.

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Comments

You don't address the Buchh to the bullpen role

which is what I have heard 95% of the time by anybody covering the team when they discuss his return.

Maybe that’s a result of the continued lack of progress form Bedard coupled with the continued problems of Lackey (although he was much better Wed).

I think they will push Bedard out there next week, maybe as soon as the Monday DH, because he’s a rental and even hurt, he’s better than Miller/Weiland/Wake.

It’s also my take that Lackey will make that start as the #4 in the playoffs. If Buchh does come back and is pushed into a starters role, it will be because Bedard isn’t healthy.

by cds7c on Sep 16, 2011 9:11 AM EDT reply actions

I just don't buy that

Buchholz, having not pitched in months, is going to suddenly be able to ramp up enough to start games or even to really pitch reliably effectively. I don’t have a lot of faith in the rotation or the pen at this point, but I’m not sure that Buchholz coming out and being able to throw 20 or so pitches is going to bolster my confidence any.

by wolf9309 on Sep 16, 2011 9:37 AM EDT reply actions

Our starting pitching is in shambles

We are hoping that two guys who have missed starts are ready (Bedard and Buchholz), but the truth is neither is reliable. As the Globe notes this morning, when measured by Innings Pitched and Quality Starts Boston starters have been among the worst in baseball since the All Star break.

I think the time for panic arrived a while ago. In fact, you can argue that Theo should have done more to address the problem at the trade deadline.

by flasoxfan on Sep 16, 2011 10:16 AM EDT reply actions

Clay needs to pitch in playoffs if he is healthy enough

Absolutely. If Clay can return, he has to be your #4 starter in the playoffs and you bump Lackey from the rotation. Even if Clay can only give you 3 innings, you go into game 4 with the plan of Clay pitching 3 innings followed by Aceves pitching 3 innings. Lackey has been a complete disaster all year. There is no reason to expect that he would pitch well in the playoffs. You’d go into the game at a distinct disadvantage if he were your starter. As desperate as the Red Sox are right now, I obviously don’t want to push Buchholz to pitch if he isn’t healthy. But if he is healthy, then he’s got to pitch in place of Lackey, even if he can only give you a few innings.

Jeff Edelman
Student.com
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by Jeff Edelman on Sep 16, 2011 10:20 AM EDT reply actions

I think the error is in

assuming that Clay Buchholz who hasn’t pitched in months is going to pitch anything like the Clay Buchholz we saw last year. I think that’s a lot to ask with no rehab assignment or anything.

by wolf9309 on Sep 16, 2011 10:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, I don't think he'll be Buchholz

I just think he’ll be better than Lackey. Which would be a boost.

Twitter: @Marc_Normandin

by Marc Normandin on Sep 16, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

really, I'm kind of unconvinced

I don’t honestly have faith he’ll be a ton better, but I do honestly believe that while Lackey starting may be a fairly automatic loss (although not necessarily, he won’t exactly be going against a top pitcher), he’s likely to go 5-7 innings, so that the already stretched bullpen can at least not pitch 8 innings in a game we’ll lose. I think if Buchholz was starting a game, it would not just give us a very small chance of winning THAT game, but make it significantly less likely that we’ll win any further games.

by wolf9309 on Sep 16, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree

Buchholz hasn’t pitched since mid-June. He just threw off a mound for the first time, and the playoffs start in two weeks. There is almost no chance that Buchholz starts a game and a pretty slim chance that he’ll even be available out of the pen. As bad as Lackey has been, I’m not sure Buchholz can be better (especially since he won’t be able to go deep enough in games).

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Sep 16, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions

Stupid @#$%in' logic...

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Sep 16, 2011 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions

OH MY GOD, CLAY

PLEASE COME BACK TO ME!

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Sep 16, 2011 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

Honestly.

I would take Vaughn Eshelman at this point over some of the guys we trot out there.

That being said….we need to hit better against TB or it doesn’t matter who we send out to the mound. Hitting .177 over 16 games against a fellow WC competitor is not going to get it done.

by The Name is Dalton on Sep 16, 2011 10:39 AM EDT reply actions