Walk-Off Repeat: Jacoby Ellsbury Does It Again Against Indians
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 3, 2011 11:09 PM EDT
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A walk-off hit is a hard act to follow, but Jacoby Ellsbury outdid himself Wednesday night, breaking a 3-3 tie with two outs in the ninth with a walk-off home run.
For all that this game finished on a happy note, it was one of frustration for much of the last three innings. Tim Wakefield had throw six strong innings, allowing just two earned runs, and seemed in line for his 200th win thanks to a two-out, two-run single from David Ortiz in the first, and an RBI groundout from Marco Scutaro in the fourth (the only production of another largely-wasted bases loaded situation).
The defense had had his back for most of the night, too. While Marco Scutaro allowed the first Indians baserunner of the game to reach in the third on an error, Dustin Pedroia made an amazing play on a bunt when Wakefield fell down trying to change directions, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia turned one of the inevitable passed balls/wild pitches of a Tim Wakefield start into a positive, gunning down Travis Hafner from a good few feet behind home plate after chasing the ball down.
But, despite the evidence from the rest of the season that Tim Wakefield wasn't much one for long outings, Terry Francona decided to stick with the Knuckleballer into the seventh. A decision for which he was burned, as a pair of doubles set the game back to even at 3-3. This came despite Jonathan Papelbon, Daniel Bard, and Matt Albers having just 5.2 innings on their collective arms in the past week. What's worse, Francona didn't even have anyone other than Williams and Aceves warming up, suggesting that Wakefield was in it until the game was tied from the very beginning. Baffling? Definitely. Inexcusable? If you ask me.
Thankfully, though, the Red Sox had Jacoby Ellsbury to pick them up. After wasting a leadoff walk in the eight, Darnell McDonald and Marco Scutaro provided quick outs for Joe Smith. The third out wouldn't prove quite so simple. Smith got ahead 0-1 with a slider that caught the outside edge, but his next pitch caught just enough of the plate. Ellsbury leaned out just a bit, swung hard, and launched the ball well over Ezequiel Carrera's head and into the stands in dead-away center for the walk-off shot.
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I don't see it
I really don’t. Wake had set down the Tribe without much trouble in the past two innings, and he was almost out of the 7th before he allowed a 2 out double, after which he was pulled for a reliever. This seems like good management to me.
Are you saying Tito should have been more concerned about getting Wake his 200th win then allowing his starter who had pitched well to go deeper into games, thus preserving some of the bullpen, allowing them more rest down the stretch and/or the ability to come into another close game further down the line? I thought that most people here would applaud a decision based on the game situation and not on arbitrary milestones. Very surprised to see the opposite.
Seriously, click the link.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 3, 2011 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I read it
I tend to agree with Buzzy, and the OP himself pointed out that this “trend” has fluctuated from year to year. It’s a nice hypothesis, but I’m far from convinced. Certainly it’s not conclusive enough to yank Wake in the 6th inning every time.
The man is 45
And we had a well-stocked bullpen behind him. He came out looking wild as all get-out and gave up a ringing double to start the frame.
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by Ben Buchanan on Aug 3, 2011 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Hmm
Let’s see:
1.Wakefield one earned run from pitch 75-99. 2 from pitch 1-75. Wake had Ks in the 5th and 6th. An awful breakdown!
2. A decent pen is still likely to allow 1 earned run per 3 innings after being pulled.
3. Their starter went a full 7 and they have a deep pen.
4. Most importantly we have no days off through the Yankees series and hav a starter going tomorrow that lasted less than 2 innings in his only start in a month plus and will be on a 80-85 pitch limit.
Good thing you don’t manage this team.
I’m tempted to write a piece about how recent evidence suggests that Wake would be more effective if allowed to pitch complete games.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Well
jokes aside I agree with Ben that a 45 year old pitcher should be monitored with care, but I hardly think that demands an automatic hook after 75 pitches in all circumstances.
I don't think anybody is saying that it should be an automatic hook.
The game was a 1 run game, he gave up a leadoff double, and the bullpen was well stocked. That’s why the 45 year old crap pitcher should’ve gotten the hook.
The Red Sox can win the World Series as currently constructed
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Aug 4, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't have a problem with leaving Wake in last night
The pen is capable of giving up a run. Wake was fine last night, and you don’t know what to expect from Bedard, the next game’s starter. Also, the Sox don’t have an off-day for a while.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 4, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
1. Wakefield had an OPS against of about .150/.190/.350 from 1-75, .286/.375/.571 from 75-100. An awful breakdown!
2. Wakefield’s 5+ ERA vs. Albers – Bard – Papelbon’s 2.61 ERA.
3. All the more reason to hold the lead they have rather than attempt to regain it.
4. Asked and answered, but if Bedard implodes, the Sox aren’t going to be looking for a solid back-end to keep them in it. They’re going to be looking for seven from Aceves + Williams + Wheeler
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by Ben Buchanan on Aug 4, 2011 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Why do you refuse to acknowledge
That Wakefields 7+ inning stats must have a sample size of about 30 ABs? It is not a significant stat.
by Sologub on Aug 4, 2011 10:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
but his career of mediocrity at best is
If you try to go 7 with him, you’re playing with fire. The only reason not to pull him is if the pen needs to be saved, which it didn’t.
The Red Sox can win the World Series as currently constructed
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Aug 4, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
The pen doesn't need to be saved
but there are other considerations such as the fact his pitch count was low, that their starter was going deep, that he was pitching fine, that Bard had pitched In 2 of the last 3 games and looked completely flat the last time out, that we have 4 straight games with either a very strong offense or a questionable pitcher on the mound or both, and the fact take Wake’s implosions after 75 pitches did not happen consistently in recent past and this year it has not been as regular as the small sample #s suggest…
It is not that pulling Wake would have been wrong, it is the notion that not pulling him is moronic that is confounding.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 4, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
we have other guys like Wheeler,
who could pitch instead of Bard. I have no idea why the hell he had Aceves warming up with Bedard pitching tomorrow. You make good points, but Francona still went with the worst option. Sure, Wakefield was fine, and both he and the pen can give up runs, but he was still the worst option.
The Red Sox can win the World Series as currently constructed
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Aug 4, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Because it's not just about 1 year's statistics.
It’s about a 45-year-old pitcher throwing the same amount as our 30-year-olds. It’s about the situation making no sense even without the pitch count in question. The reason Wakefield should go six is because I don’t necessarily trust our pen to go four scoreless. The reason he shouldn’t go seven, even not considering age, is because I do trust the pen to go three scoreless.
Consider the situation. He had WILLIAMS AND ACEVES warming up behind him. Francona was clearly not interested in pulling Wakefield unless the inning was over, or the game was tied. Which makes no sense, because if the game is tied than he’s potentially screwing his pen over anyways. He was risking seven innings to save one, and putting his money on the worst horse in the race!
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by Ben Buchanan on Aug 4, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Except that he's also a 45 year old knuckleball pitcher..
… not a 45 year old flamethrower. Everything has suggested that the knuckleball is less taxing than regular pitches (see his career ability to go back out and throw a lot of pitches on very short rest, and the longevity of the Niekro (sp?) brothers and Charlie Hough).
I’m not saying he shouldn’t have been pulled here, but you’re also looking at it with 20/20 hindsight. I recall another game recently where he dug a whole and got out of it, and everyone in the game thread said Tito got away with one there.
So… seriously… let’s talk about that other article’s small sample size, and eliminate the game with the grand slam (4 ERs) and the walk and two run HR (2 ERs)… I’ll even suggest you keep the doubles last night that drove in one… someone run the numbers without those two innings, and tell me if it really still says Wake is done after 75 pitches. If two innings skew the sample that much, what does the data really say?
Just look at the game logs please.
they paint a much different picture. They show the danger of this kind of reasoning based on small samples. Maybe he should have been pulled in the 4th because he gave up a “resounding homer” to start off the inning.
You constantly react too strongly based on a panic-type response. Like insisting Papi should “most definitely” bunt, these questionable statements are made with an air of certainty implying incompetence when the panic based small sample reasoning is not followed…
The man is 45 ... and a knuckleball pitcher.
I agree with Buzzy and Solugub. The ‘80 pitch’ premise is dubious. It may be true, but there is nothing that really supports it.
The knuckle ball comes and goes as it pleases. Wake is just as likely to blow up after 10 pitches as he is after 80.
The trick is to play the odds and risk avoiding the blow up as long as you can to preserve bullpen.
We have Bedard on a pitch count tonight which means we may need long relief. Terry needed Wake to make it into the 7th and he did just fine at that.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Even if it was lower, why couldn't Albers have pitched the 7th?
He’s been pretty good this year. Aceves didn’t need to be used, but he was warming tonight. So the pitch count for Bedard excuse is bogus.
The Red Sox can win the World Series as currently constructed
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Aug 3, 2011 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I would imagine that that particular number would be higher for most pitchers in the league
And not unique to just Wakefield. It isn’t ground breaking, that pitchers get worse the more pitches they throw, we freak when a reliever has to throw 30.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Not always
But, we’re talking about very small samples and they can fluctuate from year to year.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 4, 2011 7:25 AM EDT up reply actions
based on 71 PAs
hardly a valid sample size.
Wake’s OPS on the rest of his pitch count profile conforms to his career norms. His career norm for pitches 75-100 is a reasonable .801 OPS.
Give it time and I would not be surprised for his 75-100 count OPS for this year to regress to around that same value.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Also, keep in mind that Bedard is pitching tomorrow on a strict pitch count.
And considering he didn’t make it to 2 innings last time he pitched, they might need that bullpen tomorrow.
All the more reason to use Albers - Bard - Papelbon
It’s a one-run game, and Wakefield is far more likely to give up that run than any of them, possibly necessitating a long extra-innings game.
If Bedard implodes tomorrow, the man we’re going to need is Aceves.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
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I think you underestimate the ability of this offense to keep us in games.
What is Bedard implodes, gives up 5 runs in 3 innings, but our offense does its thing and keeps us in the game? Or what if Bedard pitches okay, but can only go 4 innings because of his pitch count?
Then in both of those situations you STILL ARE LOOKING FOR ACEVES.
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by Ben Buchanan on Aug 4, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
The only situation which would require, say, Albers--the man who Tito was saving an inning from
Is if the Red Sox not only come back, but do so by the seventh inning, and are now stuck in a tight game. Possible? Yes. But unlikely. The main person you’re looking for is Aceves in every situation.
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by Ben Buchanan on Aug 4, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think I've ever heard the crowd boo as loudly
As they did when Tito yanked Wakefield last night—or a faster turnaround in giving Wakefield a standing O after Tito shafted him.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Remember that arrogant MFY fan who came to OTM last year to post this?
LINK
I wonder how that guy feels right now?
Twitter | "Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester" - Dave Cameron 12/29/2005
by radiohix on Aug 4, 2011 8:20 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The same way a lot of us feel
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Aug 4, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
dammit he's doing such a good job fooling everyone
that he even has the stats fooled into thinking he’s a good player. Tricky.
by wolf9309 on Aug 4, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Ha ha ha!
Love this one.
Seriously, though… the numbers on the link page, showing Ells fWAR is behind Pedroia and ahead of Gonzo… just wow.
I’ve always loved Ellsbury, even as I’ve realized he was overhyped (based on his route running in CF), but what a season he’s put together.
Honestly, at the beginning of the year, we were debating whether Carl Crawford would ever hit 20 HRs over the life of his new contract with the Sox. Ellsbury looks like 20 is a given, and could he get to… 30 over the next two months?
Noticing in the picture that Buchholz made his way onto the field
for congratulations……Easy there buddy…….YOU HAVE A BAD BACK!
The day before, it was Buch and Bedard pulling Ellsbury down.
C’mon guys, you two? Get inside and sit down somewhere soft.
Interesting Study & Debate
Now we need a comparison of Wake’s stats to OTHER PITCHERS using the same pitch counts … otherwise it is pretty much akin to claiming there is something weird in Ireland because the grass gets greener whenever it rains.
Pitchers pitch about the same up to 100 pitches.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=p&lg=AL&year=2011#pitco
OPS by pitch count:
1-25: .706
26-50: .710
51-75: .743
76-100: .729
But Wakefield is far from a typical pitcher, so it’s tough to compare him with the rest of the league.
@bumpasaurus
Let's run the numbers one more time...
But remove just two innings on the season: the grand slam and the two run HR in his previous two appearances. I know, they are big reinforcement of the premise, but… without those two innings, what happens to the entire data set?
let's also compare Wake 2011) to Wake (career)
since we wonder how he compares to a knuckleballer.
Wake 2011 2011* Career
Pitch 1-25 .669(138) .669(138) .711(3931)
Pitch 26-50 .752(120) .752(120) .745(3519)
Pitch 51-75 .757(118) .757(118) .759(3117)
Pitch 76-100 1.148( 71) 1.021( 69) .801(2420)
Pitch 101+ .286( 7) .286( 7) .672( 727)
The middle column removes just the GS and the HR. That drops his OPS by .127 points.
The number in (parenthesis) is the number of PAs backing up that number.
Really, the most apparent thing you can tell from all this is that the data set from 76-100 this year is ridiculously small and kinda useless for telling anything.
Even his other bins are still small, but at least they tend to conform with his career norms.
My suspicion would be that given time, his 76-100 bin would move towards .800ish.
Or … we should make him throw 100 pitches before the game starts and have him only throw in the 101+ bin!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Clearly, that is when he is his best!
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
I was more upset at bringing Williams into a tie game than leaving Wake in
Williams has been mediocre his entire career AND this year and is about the worst pitcher in the pen, and that was an incredibly high leverage situation, not only bringing him in with two out in the 7th (which I can understand, kinda) but leaving him in the 8th against Hafner – Santana – Fukudome.
But Tito knew what he was doing, or got lucky…
@bumpasaurus
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