FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi reported Friday that to get Jimenez, the Red Sox would need to part with Kyle Weiland and Double-A third baseman Will Middlebrooks.
No way that's all he would cost, but do you do that?
10 months ago
Marc Normandin
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In a word, no.
If they wanted Ranaudo? Sure. Same goes for Iglesias, Kalish, Weiland, Lin, Lavarnway, Coyle, or anyone else you could name. But there’s only one way I would be okay with trading Middlebrooks.
Chase fucking Headley.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
You could get Headley
For less than Middlebrooks, I would imagine.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jul 29, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
This
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
by Lloyd Christmas on Jul 29, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not talking about trading Middlebrooks for Headley
I’m talking about getting Headley before trading Middlebrooks.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 29, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
The Rockies
are possibly the absolute worst fit for Jose Iglesias.
by abbreviatedman on Jul 29, 2011 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
They have Troy Tulowitzski at SS. Why would they need Iglesias?
It would be like us trying to pick up a AAA 1B prospect.
I definitely don't think they'd do this
Weiland has the ceiling of a thrid starter, Middlebrooks is a good prospect but only one guy, and Iglesias has the ceiling of who knows what. Theo or whoever does the promotions may have broken him. If the low level guy was Bogaerts (might not be a SS), Coyle, or Jacobs, that would certainly bolster the package some.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 29, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I would prefer to hold onto Middlebrooks.
Maybe make Kalish the position player centerpiece with Weiland, Brentz, and Tejeda. Would be willing to include Ranaudo as well as a number of other guys.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jul 29, 2011 1:10 PM EDT reply actions
I really think Kalish has lost a ton of value this year
and it’s not too often you see guys who’ve been out almost the whole year and are still injured as one of the centerpieces of a trade.
Heh unfortunately true
However, were I Theo, I would start with Kalish just to see what O’Dowd thinks of him.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jul 29, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree, but wouldn't want to part with Ranaudo either.
Everyone else OK – Iglesias, Kalish, Weiland, Lavarnway even, but not Middlebrooks or Ranaudo.
BTW, do they want Iglesias??? They have Tulowitzski at SS after all.
I would imagine they don't value Iggy highly.
And I would be willing to trade Ranaudo for a starter, but not a position player. Unlikely Ranaudo is ever as good as The Ubaldo Eagle, so I’d include him.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jul 29, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh
FG velocity isn’t great, since it combines two- and four-seamers together into one velocity number. It has dropped a bit, of course.
Pitching in Colorado is much harder on players physically than it is elsewhere. My guess would be that if Ubaldo escapes Colorado with his arm intact, his velocity will come back with time. Plus, he’s been real good without it, too.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jul 29, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Could be that he realizes he can't just overthrow all the time
which means he’s rounding into a pitcher and not a thrower
Orrr alternatively
He’s injured.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Or possibly an imposter
"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 29, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it looks a bit worrisome
I’ve heard some people saying that he’s not throwing as hard as in the past for worries that he waas throwing so hard before he’d hurt himself. Don’t know if that’s speculation or something he’s said. It’s a risk I’d be willing to take.
I'd be willing to do that easy, hands down, no question
Middlebrooks would suck to lose, but Ubaldo is a good pitcher for pretty cheap. I think Ubaldo is much more likely to be a game-changer than Middlebrooks, really.
+1
Young/Cheap Major League proven starters are a VERY valuable commodity
A trade would further lower the Sox system but they can afford it due to the core of players and the financial resources at hand
yeah frankly
with first base, second base, left field, right field, closer, and all 5 starters locked up for quite some years, we could afford some years of a rebuilding farm system. As of now, we have a ton of prospects who have potential to be high-level prospects but aren’t there yet. I’m confident enough in the drafting that the organization has been doing lately that by the time we’d have a great need, the farm system would be pretty strong again. No sense in saving up a great, powerful farm system if you don’t use it.
Assuming those two are the headlining prospects (meaning discernably better than the others)...
… yes. I was starting to look forward to Middlebrooks at third in Boston, but I think Ubaldo is a good defensive move for the Sox and fills a need.
"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 29, 2011 1:19 PM EDT reply actions
"Defensive"
… meaning they can keep him away from competitors.
"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 29, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
We know very little about Middlebrooks
Remember, a year ago Britton was the next Lester and Pimentel the next Lowe.
Give to get.
yes this is also my thought
and Weiland has had an impressive year, but doesn’t sound like a big loss to me.
I don't want to give up Middlebrooks
I’d be more comfortable giving up Iglesias.
In any case, its going to take more than just Middlebrooks/Weiland. Try Middlebrooks/Weiland/Ranaudo + someone like Brentz or Jacobs. And i’m being conservative.
Look at what they want from NY: Nova, Betances/Banuelos/Brackman, and Montero is a kings ransom. That beats any offer the Sox can put together unless they want to put together a package that cripples our sytem
Ubaldo is young, cost-controlled, and has a Cy Young-caliber year under his belt at 26. He is going to cost A LOT.
I think we'd all be more comfortable with that
but I think Iglesias’ value is not really all that high. Especially to a team with a franchise shortstop locked up until about the year infinity.
Oh hells yes.
Ubaldo is one of the most valuable properties in baseball. He’s got this year plus two more under contract dirt cheap. He was a 3.60 xFIP guy the last two years, and his xFIP is even lower this year.
I’d throw Middlebrooks, Weiland, and another prospect in there. Even Renaudo or Lavarnaway.
Hence my saying
No way that’s all he would cost, but do you do that?
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jul 29, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Saw that
Just making a point of the fact that the Yanks can match and exceed any offer that we make.
I’m not too crazy about Jimenez either…I’d be happy with a guy like Fister or Bedard.
the Yankees can exceed our offer
but with more long term holes in their rotation and guys getting older, they may need their farm system to produce major league players with a bit more immediacy than we do, so they may be less willing to part with a ton of prospects.
Agreed
They have a better farm system, but may be loathe to use it for that purpose.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jul 29, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah our farm is a little this weird this year
because we have our core locked up well enough that we almost kind of need to get rid of some of our guys who are closeish to the majors.
Really would be sad to see Middlebrooks go though.
Pitching Wise
A move for Ubaldo would essentially mean we would not need a starter until 2013/2014 (He is in essence locked up until then)
Beckett/Lester/Jimenez/Buchholz/Lackey
Heck by that time Barnes (assuming he’s signed) could be ready
and we could say that Lackey would be the best 5th starter in baseball,
which he probably would be.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 29, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Depends on the day...
"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 29, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd be okay with that
But I still would rather not deal Middlebrooks. Aside from Headley, I’m leery of the 3B market right now. Longoria’s awesome, but signed forever. Other than that, I don’t know who is all that good that we can acquire between now and when Youk leaves.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 29, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
eh I mean even if he becomes a good major league third baseman
I think that a top tier starter is a bigger difference maker than a good major league third baseman almost all the time
Don't they need it to trade away for over-the-hill All-Stars?
(oh wait, that was 1996-2005)
"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 29, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I hope it comes down to someone lesser, too
But if the Yankees are about to get him, for instance, and Boston can do it without completely emptying the farm, you have to at least have the conversation.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Jul 29, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Fister would be cool
Ubaldo would be cooler, but at a higher price. Bedard is really a different scenario, that would be a guy we’re hoping can be healthy through the year rather than a longish term addition.
Be willing to deal Middlebrooks
But any chance that the Red Sox can overwhelm with a quanitity type offer. As shown on here previously, with all the rule 5 eligible players, many of whom are decent to good prospects, could people like Navarro, Lars, Doubrount, Lin, Chang, and others combined could be just as valuable.
I know teams want more sure thing prospects but most of these guys are already major league ready
pleading ignorance, but I don't get the Middlebrooks love
22 is by no means old for AA, but also not particularly young. He’s playing well, and I don’t know his defense, but our corners seem decently locked up for the near-future.
supposedly he has very good defense
raw power
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 29, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
but I think why he's valued so much is because of his good deal of potential.
He has a .371 wOBA in AA. 2 players out of qualified 3B has a wOBA over .370, which are Youk and A-rod. AA isn’t MLB, but if he can keep improving like he has every year, eventually replicating his AA numbers in Boston doesn’t seem to be out of reach. Plus, he already has the good defense. Walk rate is a concern though.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 29, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
third basemen don't walk!
except Youk and we all know that he’s a first baseman.
OK that’s a gross generalization, but for some reason it almost always seems to be true and I can’t figure out why.
Good defense
His defense is definitely plus—it’s a significant part of his value. And I’m less confident in the future of our corners, seeing as Youkilis looks like he’s about to blow his knees out every time he fields a grounder.
That said, for Ubaldo, I’d write Middlebrooks a lovely goodbye card.
Largely depends on Ortiz I think
If we can’t re-sign him, or won’t, Youk I would imagine get’s first shot at DH, in which case Middlebrook’s value to the team goes up quite a bit.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Which is enough time for Middlebrooks to prepare for MLB as a 24 year old.
It’s pretty much set up perfectly, unless he falls apart in AAA
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 29, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if teams would take Kalish because of the injury,
or try to get his value by getting multiple other players. Anyway, I’d do this package.
WMB
Weiland
Kalish
Hassan
Lin
Head
If they want more pitching, throw in Doubront or Pimentel (yes, I know he’s been horrible)
I’m not sure they’d do that, but that would leave us with Ranaudo,Lavarnway, and Reddick. So we’d have a fantastic rotation and be set for every position next year. Maybe Navarro could replace Youk in a year or two.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
That is seven prospects for one pitcher
Mind you, the ceilings are of varying levels, but most of them are quite high. Eight guys if you include Doubront/Stolmy, I do not think I would part with that many players for anyone, even two and a half years of Ubaldo, and even if he was guarenteed to put up last years numbers for each of those years. That’s just too high a price for the farm system.
yeah a ton of guys
also, when we’re mostly talking about guys who will be rule 5 eligible, quantity deals aren’t necessarily all that appealing to other teams
but what good are these guys?
Like I said, I’m not sure Colorado would like that, but we don’t have a need for most of those guys. I’m sure they’d be depth, but they’re not much more than that. I’d rather keep the players that have a future with the sox: Ranaudo, Lavarnway.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 29, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I would make that move in a second.
Obviously, it will cost more that this.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
by Lloyd Christmas on Jul 29, 2011 1:56 PM EDT reply actions
I think the real intended question is
“would make make a deal with a package centered around those two guys”
Sox don't need Middlebrooks...
Unless they plan on not resigning (or picking up the ’13 team option on) Youkilis after next season.
Even if they let Youkilis go after 2012 (or 2013), or move him to DH to replace a reited Ortiz, Middlebrooks would be a 25 year-old 3B with no MLB experience. That doesn’t seem the kind of player the Sox throw into an opening day starting role.
This is the Red Sox. They will sign a veteran 3B to replace Youkilis. And they will draft and groom another 3B.
well presumably they'd get him a little experience before that.
Things like injuries happen, especially the way Youk plays. He’s not gonna be out ther 162 games a year at third base for two more years.
Pedroia came in with little MLB experience to a starting role.
He is the rare Muddy Chicken.
There aren’t many others during the Theo era.
Ellsbury bounced up and don’t, and really only hung on because Coco got injured and his talent declined. Youkilis was already like 27 years-old. Lester and Buchholz were (are) studs.
Are there any others?
Reddick may be doing it now
saying guys like Lester and Buchholz were studs is a weird reason to not count them. The reason Middlebrooks is promising is that he seems like he has a decent chance of being a stud. Obviously we’re not gonna throw someone who doesn’t look ready and very good in.
That's true.
Lester and Buch should have been a separate paragraph. As pitchers, it’s near unheard of that one comes up and becomes the go-to ace, ready to throw 240 innings and carry a team. That doesn’t happen often anymore. But they both came up quickly and succeeded immediately.
For position players, it’s really only Pedroia.
Reddick is in the position I thought Kalish was in last year. I wanted Kalish to be the starting RF this year, and for JD Drew to be the 4th outfielder. Kalish seemed ready (and was a lifelong Sox fan). But the Sox saw differently. Now, maybe Reddick will be there next year, or he may start as the 4th outfielder, or he may find himself back in AAA if the Sox sign a free agent. Who knows?
well they had Drew
I’m pretty sure the plan for the Sox was always to wean Kalish into being the right fielder over the course of the year after just a bit more seasoning in AAA (Francona and Theo both said they expected him to be a big part of the 2011 Red Sox)- then he struggled there and got injured. I’ll be downright shocked if the Sox sign a free agent to be the everyday starter for right field (though I expect they will sign someone who can play right field in case whoever’s there struggles)
I hope...
they withhold trading for Pence or anyone else. They don’t need any other trades or free agents. They need to continue to build the homegrown base of the team. In fact, I think they should trade Crawford away and, when healthy, promote Kalish to RF (move Reddick to LF). And keep grooming Brentz and Lin and Jacobs and Hazelbaker…
I contend that fans love a team for its homegrown quality equally as much as they love winning. For example, it’s easy for Sox fans to love this team because we’ve known Pedey, Youk, Tek, Ellsbury, Lester, Buch, Wake, Paps, Bard, and Ortiz for so long. I’d even throw in Beckett (since ’07 and will probably retire with the team). And we know Gonzo is here for another 7 years. That is a strong core of true Red Sox to carry on the tradition.
Mercenaries wear on the fans, no matter the winning. For example, if the Heat had won this year, half the Miami fans would have immediately stopped caring about basketball since they had their title to celebrate, and the other half would have immediately begun clamoring for the second and third titles. I have many friends who are Yankees fans (I’ve lived in the city that past 9 years) that have grown weary of the constant turnover in mercenaries and generally weak farm system. When they won in ‘09, the fans barely celebrated. My friends barely cared. They don’t even talk about it anymore, and just last night my buddy forgot which year they won. They’ll always take a championship over nothing, but they LOVED the 1996-2000 Yankees because they were mostly homegrown (or guys were obtained young, like how we got Ortiz from the Twins). They have more pride in their homegrown guys.
remember we got Crawford because we offered more than anyone else
now that he’s a year older and has had an awful year (at least by Crawford standards), I don’t see anyone knocking down doors to take him from us. Besides, his mercenary contract insures that he’ll be around longer than either Reddick or Kalish is guaranteed to be.
I can only partially agree.
I love homegrown talent way more than the next guy, (Who seems to just like everything, kinda weird if you think about it) but I like winning at least as much. It’s great that we’ve got a young strong core of homegrown players, and it’s certainly more special because they’re homegrown. But remember, the 2004 team was largely not homegrown, and that was still an important and defining moment for the franchise. I’m a huge WMB fan, and I hope he stays in boston, but if we field a team that’s got slightly fewer homegrown players but gets a few more wins, especially in October, I will take that in a heartbeat
We're in no danger of becoming a team detached from the fanbase.
Youk, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Buchholz, Bard, Reddick are all home-grown talents that have been here for years and will be for at least a couple more.
Ortiz is Ortiz, of course, and Beckett’s been around long enough that he’s grown into things here.
By the time we’re wondering about which mercenary to put at third, Adrian and Crawford will feel every bit as natural as Beckett or Ortiz. We’ll have a home-grown guy in Lavarnway to take over at either catcher or DH (don’t see him being involved in this deal), maybe Doubront is in the rotation, etc.
We’re not going to be the Yankees in this area.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Even your examples of "homegrown" aren't all homegrown
Wakefield, Varitek and Ortiz were all drafted by other teams and are now considered some of the truest Red Sox ever. I agree that you want to build connections with players but I think singing long term is a better way to think about it. People don’t build connections based on the MLB draft, they do it based on years of play.
I think that's more Tito's issue than Theo's
Ells and Lowrie should have done it but weren’t being started. Reddick should have done it, but Tito keeps starting MacDonald.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 29, 2011 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions
the fact that it's consistent
means that it’s probably a mutually agreed upon plan between Tito and the front office for bringing up guys. These aren’t completely separate things.
I'd rather not go about things by saying
“we have holes, but we’ll just fill them through free agency.” Certainly every team gets some free agents, but I don’t want to make this our plan of attack.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 29, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree.
I love bringing up prospects. I want to see Reddick and Kalish duke it out for RF for the foreseeable future. I’d love to see Middlebrooks at 3B in three years. I was excited for Rizzo to be the future 1B (though I wouldn’t get rid of Gonzalez for anyone in baseball). I wanted Lowrie to stay healthy and be the SS. I love following the young guys for 15 years as opposed to mercenaries for five.
I’m just saying that this is the Red Sox, and they more often than not sign free agents as opposed to promoting young guys. Every year is a “win now” year! Crawford 9and Cameron before him) instead of Reddick or Kalish. The shortstop position (due partly to Lowrie’s constant injuries). The catcher position. Every year with another pitcher like Lackey or Arroyo or Lowe or Dice K, etc.
It’s always win now, and very few young guys are consistent enough for that. Pedroia was.
Yes, exactly.
The goal is to win World Serieses, plural. Having the best prospects makes sure that we can keep doing that year in and year out. Don’t get me wrong, I want to win this year, but it’s not the only year I want to win.
yeah but the thing is
right now we have a huge amount of the team locked up for a long time. Ubaldo would be another guy locked up for a few years. We aren’t talking about giving up prospects for a half year rental
True.
He is locked in and cheap. But as I wrote elsewhere on this meandering blog, Ubaldo has never faced AL bats (especially AL East bats) on a day-in, day-out basis. He’s from the offensively-challenged NL West.
this is true
but he’s a good pitcher. He’s pitched very well against the more offensively impressive teams in the NL. I don’t see the NL West as meaning that a pitcher will be unsuccessful when coming over, necessarily. But yes, it is definitely an added risk. I wouldn’t expect him to put up any more seasons where he has an ERA under 1 halfway through.
NL pitchers...
tend to have a tough time moving into the AL. AL teams tend to have stronger offenses. And the DH does make a big difference to a lineup. It’s much easier to throw to a fellow pitcher 3-4 times per game.
Quite a few of NL pitchers have vetoed trades to the AL (when they had trade vetoes in their contracts).
I'm aware of that
but it doesn’t mean that he’ll necessarily be bad. Aces are usually aces even if they don’t put up quite as impressive numbers. There’s plenty of guys who’ve put up good numbers in both leagues. I understand that AL offenses are better, but it seems like a good amount of people (and this might’ve not been your intent, I realize you were just posing the question) automatically assume that anyone moving from the NL will automatically just suck when they make the change.
I'm not disagreeing,
I’m just saying that winning this year shouldn’t be the only focus of the Red Sox, they should also be doing what they can to make sure they keep winning, and having good prospects is a part of that, but so is having good pitching locked up. My problem is that the post I was responding to was devaluing the having of good prospects.
The value of prospects
…is different for the Red Sox and Yankees than many teams. The Pirates, Rays, Royals and other teams need to have prospects actually playing in the majors to control costs. the Red Sox develop prospects not only to possibly play for the big team (obviously), but also to flip to get needed pieces for the annual playoff run.
The same argument can be made for Fister or Vargas
If you put a gun to my head right now and made me choose between the three based on what I believe their future in Boston would look like and their respective costs, I would choose Fister over the other two. He’ll be significantly cheaper than Jimenez, he won’t be as good, but he’ll be a good #4/5, which is what we need, and he’s proven in the AL.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 29, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Driving up the price on the Yankees!
The ONLY reason they’re bidding on Ubaldo right now is to drive up the price on the Yankees.
I know they need pitching (and Ubaldo is a cheap option), but Ubaldo is not worth sacrificing more farm system talent that can be used later down the line. If they make this deal, it’s a panic deal, and it won’t work.
Ubaldo pitches in the NL West against mostly-inferior offensive teams. San Diego. Los Angeles. San Francisco. Those teams are three of the four lowest-scoring teams in baseball. Only Seattle scores less.
Ubaldo has never been tested like the AL East will test him. Is this really the time to test him?
The thing that doesn't make sense about this for me
Is that the Sox can’t really drive up the price on the Yankees. They can’t go high enough to come close to what the Rockies want from NY without having Colorado accept.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
They might simply force the Yankees to accept giving up those (arguably better) prospects in fear that the Rockies will send Ubaldo to the Sox for less.
I gotta say I really do fear a current Yankee team that has a 1-2 of Sabathia and Ubaldo
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Yankees just went out and got Wandy or someone like that who they’ll be giving up very little prospect value for and mostly just paying cash. Wandy isn’t as frightening.
YES YES YES 1,000,000 X YES!
As noted many times, Ubaldo is under a CHEAP contract for 2012 and 2013. So your rotation is Beckett, Lester, Bucholz, Ubaldo and Lackey for the next several years. That may be better than the Phillies rotation. Honestly, I can’t think of any three prospects I WOULD NOT trade for Ubaldo. I would only be hesitant to trade Reddick, because he is probably the RF for 2012 and beyond. Other than that, what position is open on the Sox for the next three + years? They can’t sit back and stockpile prospects when there is an opportunity to improve the team for the present AND the near future.
Third base is specifically the one position that will be open.
Which is why it’s a shame that Middlebrooks is pretty clearly a guy that would have to be sent.
Still, that being said, it’d very likely be worth it. My biggest issue is that, knowing what the Rockies wanted from the Yankees, it’s hard to imagine that “any three prospects” gets it done, really…
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah I think everyone's waiting to see if the price will come down
and then if we can match what the Yankees will actually be willing to offer.
Open when?
three years? So we hope that Middlebrooks becomes at least as good as Youk and pass on Ubaldo now? Obvioulsy it is not that simple, but I’m pretty sure the Sox brass could figure something out between now and Youk going to DH.
Three years, yeah.
And I don’t think Youk sticks past his last year, but that’s another conversation. I’d definitely do Middlebrooks + Weiland + X for Jimenez. But it was Betances + Banuelos + Montero + MORE for the Yankees. That’s like Middlebrooks + Weiland + Ranauod + Doubront + Kalish for us
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I would trade any three
any three of the Sox you mention, but only one of Ranaud or Dubront. I may do any of the four under the same Dubront/Ranaudo exclusion.
I just don't really see that getting the deal done.
But I’m working under the consideration that the Rockies haven’t talked themselves into the Ubaldo trade being a necessity. Starting to get the feeling they may be going a bit loopy.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
if the price falls
I’d probably go as far as Middlebrooks + Weiland (really, don’t see why he’s an essential, honestly) + Kalish + some low level high ceiling guy
but as you said, that does not equal what the Rockies were asking for
still, what they’re asking for isn’t necessarily an offer they’ll get and I think they might let the price fall a bit. I think at this point, with all the teams they’ve been discussing with and all the leaking that has happened, I think if he doesn’t get traded now, he does in the offseason. The relationship was already reportedly a little strained and these types of things don’t make players feel particularly happy.
Hole at 3B
Many are complaining about not having Middlebrooks to follow Youk at third but it’s not exactly a disaster to not have an All star to follow an All star (if middlebrooks could even get that good). It is alright to not have an All star at every position. The team could accept some underpowered production from third with the unbelievable offense they have everywhere else.
Also, if Iglesias really is supposed to be good, then Lowrie could slide over to third, providing very good production while also hopefully lowering his chance of injury.
Or...
Oscar Tejada or Cecchini or Vitek, down the line of course. Or play Navarro there and team him up with a veteran rental who wants to win a championship. Not a $12 million a year guy, but a $2-3.
Exactly
Middlebrooks may be the highest upside third baseman but he’s not the only person who projects to be able to play third base at a major league level.
Plus prior to this season
The thought of having discussions around Middlebrooks being a centerpiece to a trade package would have been laughable….
Haha yea
Two years ago, Lars Anderson was going to revolutionize first base. Last year, Iglesias didn’t even need to step onto the field, he just willed all balls in play into the first baseman’s glove by force of will. Lord knows who becomes untouchable next year.
This is perhaps the unintended consequence of the Theo Epstein hype machine, it gets all the other GMs to love his prospects but it also gets the fanbase to yell over any and all trades.
Iglesias hasn't been good for nearly two years now
in the minors. I think he’s broken.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 29, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes.
Do it Theo. This Trade Would Be A Steal
Contributor To Over The Monster, SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site.
I just re-looked at the OTM Top 20 Prospects
and Middlebrooks didn’t even make the list. Goes to show the fluidity of “prospects”
yeah
looking at his 2010 numbers, he definitely should have. Luis Exposito ahead of him? We stink :).
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 29, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably something to be said for how he finished the season.
BABIP-fueled start which normalizes tends to make people think the whole was worse than it was. Though it wasn’t really impressive, and he was still getting over some early reports of questionable defense.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I do not want to give up the rest of the farm to get this guy.
I still want no part of this deal. There is no reason to give up 4 or 5 of our top prospects for this guy. We can get Bedard (a guy who has proven he can pitch in AL) for much less.
This doesn’t strike me as the type of deal Theo would do as he has always said he never wants to mortgage the farm system. I hope we do not make this trade.
yeah Bedard is a good pitcher
but likely will be on the DL again before the year is over and isn’t under relatively cheap team control another 2 years
But it would still cost less and he can pitch in the AL (I have stated my concern with his injuries along with everybody else).
That is a big thing for me. Maybe I put too much stock in it but I would be much more comfortable bringing in a pitcher with proven success in the AL than a guy who numbers are not exactly mind blowing (obviously not terrible either) pitching in the NL West.
I know people will throw Lackey at me to refute my AL success theory and that is a fair point. But I would still say that I want a pitcher with proven AL success, which is why i was very high on getting Garza when those rumors were going around.
I don’t know, I just have a bad feeling about it.
video analysis on jimenez
ok i’ve never tried something like this before and i’m not exactly a pichingmechanics god, but i thought i’d give it a try
the one thing that worries me about jimenez this season is his reduced velocity (93.4 in 2011, 95.4 over his career).
there are 2 major reasons for reduced velocity: injuries and mechanics (a third might be overuse couch lincecum couch)
we are unable to look at his medical records so it’s hard to get info an possible inuries.
the thing we can try to look at is mechanics….so i tried that.
Wow good work
No idea if any of this has an affect and even if it does, it may be a conscious decision but still a noticeable difference when placed side by side.
as is said im no expert
but from what i’ve read hip rotation is the main mechanical action that produces velocity
Worth noting that
Jorge De La Rosa, James Hammel, and Aaron Cook also show some decreased readings.
Could just be something’s up in Colorado, be it its system or something new they’re doing with the balls.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Fastball velocity spikes noticeably in 3rd, 5th, 11th, and 16th games
All on the road.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
i guess from the mlb gameday readings
i haven’t seen anyone post other data
F/X
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Fangraphs
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Is this why Weiland was optioned this week instead of sent to the pen?
So he could start and be shown to scouts? Originally, Lester was to displace a disabled Drew on Monday. Then Tito cited “personal issues that he probably shouldn’t get into” when Weiland was optioned instead, and then the Drew-for-Sutton switch was made the next day—all while some guy named Randy Williams continues on as a second lefty in the pen.
well I don't think there was any kind of deal in place
it may be there’s a decent chance Weiland gets dealt, whether it’s for Ubaldo or someone else and they wanted to keep him starting on schedule. Of course if trading him was dependent on scouting his last start for the Pawsox, he may be staying in the organization for now…
I would do it, absolutely
However, if it could somehow be worked out to be instead of Middlebrooks and X, where X=mid-level prospects, to Ranaudo and X+, where X+=higher level prospects, I would love to do that instead.
Not that Middlebrooks is certain, the talent is there, but I like him more than Ranaudo at this point.
by South Coast Ghost on Jul 29, 2011 4:39 PM EDT reply actions
Face facts
Buch is done for this year. Theo, do what you have to do and get a quality starter. This team could win the WS NOW….but not with these starters.
If he's not done for the year...
… do we get to troll you about it for… oh… forever?
"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 29, 2011 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions
It is not a fact that Buchholz is done for the year.
It is a possibility but not a certainty.
They were planning on having him pitch off the the mound again and then sending him on a rehab assignment. They just want to make sure that it is just a muscle thing and will not risk any structural damage by having him pitch the rest of the way. Hopefully that is the case. It is worrisome however, that his back has been sore for this long.
Am I the only person who thinks that if there was something serious going on that somebody would have seen it? I mean he has been checked out a few different times by different specialists.
Regardless of the Buchholz situation, emptying the farm system for Jimenez is not the right thing to do in my opinion.
Buchholz is done for the year if it's a herniated disk.
If that’s the case, then it’s a joke if the Sox don’t completely rebuild their medical staff.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
If they missed this in addition to misdiagnosing Ellsbury last year then it’s time to get rid of them.
Not to mention Lowrie's wrist and Lowell's thumb.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 29, 2011 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions
yes and no
we don’t know for a fact that what they say is necessarily always what they believe. Even if it IS a herniated disc, depending on the particular injury, they can sometimes be fixed with rehab rather than surgery, so if it turns out being that, it could very well be that they’ve known and have actually just been monitoring to see how he improves with rehab. It strikes me as entirely possible that they could have done this because you know that if they had said that, whether it was possible to rehab without surgery or not, Boston would freak out and assume he was going to be gone for the whole year.
I’ve definitely gotten the distinct impression this year that there is a marked difference between what they are saying about injuries and what they actually believe to be the case.
I dunno. Seems kinda conspiracy theory for me.
“It’s muscular, we’re trying to confirm for Buchholz it’s not structural” is a pretty big farce to play.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 29, 2011 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
If it's Middlebrooks, Weiland, and Kalish/Lavarnway... (3B they need, top pitcher, top hitter)
geez… I think we should do it.
I know I said earlier we shouldn’t give up Middlebrooks, but it doesn’t sound like there’s any way around it.
I think I’m still holding out for Ranaudo, though. He’s the one prospect who has actual #1 SP potential. Of course, he has a long way to go, but his ceiling is just ridiculous. Higher, I think, than a Casey Kelly, for instance.
ouch....this might be it
The Tigers have strong interest and are willing to include top prospect Jacob Turner in a Jimenez deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Turner is ranked anywhere from #11 to #26 among all prospects by the gurus.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/ubaldo-jimenez-rumors-friday-1.html
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