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Who The Red Sox Should Acquire: Doug Fister, Jason Vargas

This week, we will take a look at some players that we feel Boston should acquire at the trade deadline. We'll all take a stab at a particular player we want to see playing for the Red Sox during the last two months of the season, as well as our reasons for wanting them in a Boston uni. Agree or disagree in the comments, as us authors don't even necessarily agree with each other on these players.

Another summer means, inevitably, another bout of Felix Hernandez trade rumors. While this season seems to be rather tame on that front-the Mariners are quite fond of their franchise player-it has produced some rather surprising rumblings about the rest of the Seattle rotation. In particular: Doug Fister and Jason Vargas.

Star-divide

Neither player is the type who's going to earn Cy Young consideration, but both have put up good numbers so far this season. Fister has a 3.18 ERA with a 3.86 xFIP, while Vargas sports 3.68 and 4.24 figures respectively.

Of the two, Fister would be the more expensive option, but also by far the better fit in Fenway. He's got groundball tendencies, particularly against right-handers, which should help to keep the ball off the wall. He's definitely no strikeout guy, but he doesn't give up free passes, and lets the Sox' strong defense do its job.

Vargas is not nearly so appropriate for Fenway as a lefty fly-ball pitcher, but is also not likely to cost nearly as much, nor kill the Sox like some of the other options in the back of the rotation.

That an out-of-contention team would try and move some quality talent for prospects shouldn't be terribly surprising. What makes the cases of Vargas and Fister interesting is that they're so cheap. Vargas is in his first season of arbitration, while Fister is still one year away from his first. Not typically the sort of thing any team is interested in trading.

In this situation, though, it's not hard to figure out their goal: to find some offense. Simply put, the Mariners are doing pretty well on pitching. They have Felix already, and Pineda is proving a star. While that certainly doesn't make for a five-man rotation, it's a solid foundation which their offense sorely lacks.

It's likely the Mariners would be interested, then, in guys like Ryan Kalish and Ryan Lavarnway. The question is: how much should the Sox be willing to pay for a guy who will be the no. 4 pitcher/insurance for the playoffs. I expect the asking price for Vargas would prove too high for what he is, since he's perfect for Safeco and not at all for Fenway.

Fister, on the other hand, might be worth the cost-and is the rare starter who seems likely to be attainable for less than a Jimenez-level package while being quality enough to be worth a decent amount. Any value they get would extend well beyond this year, too, as the Sox could either keep Fister on as a replacement for Daisuke or trade him away to someone who would value the four years of team control more than the Sox. It seems entirely likely that the Sox and Mariners could reach a reasonable deal for Fister where each side gets good value, but the question arises: what do the Sox need more? A back-end starter, or a possible replacement for David Ortiz? One of those is easily found in free agency, the other is not. On the other hand, one is much more of a sure thing, and helps the Sox now, when we know they're in a position to shoot for it all.

Poll
Should the Red Sox acquire Jason Vargas or Doug Fister?
Jason Vargas
57 votes
Doug Fister
357 votes
Neither!
312 votes

726 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 27 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Doug Fister

Wouldn’t be the worst option, but only if the price was low. Kalish or Lavarnway would be an overpay straight up.

Jason Vargas would get murdered in Fenway, no thanks. It would be like Jarrod Washburn in 2009 going from the M’s to the Tigers.

Hi ho, Duke!

by The Duke of Silver on Jul 21, 2011 10:46 AM EDT reply actions  

Generally agree with this.

I wouldn’t give up Lavarnway for Fister, but Kalish might not be too much of an overreach. I especially like the four years of team control over a decent SP.

Totally agree about Vargas. No, thanks. He’d get killed in Fenway.

by dsharp on Jul 21, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

Jake_W

“I wouldn’t give up Lavarnway for Fister, but Kalish might not be too much of an overreach.”

Kalish > Lavarnway.

by Jake_W on Jul 21, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not right now he isn't.

Kalish has been hurt and never put up the numbers Lavarnway has now in AAA. Lavarnway also plays a position where hitting is a premium.

by dsharp on Jul 21, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Gotta agree with this

but I still wouldn’t give up Kalish for 90 mph fastball fister.

by drabidea on Jul 21, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Every time I see your name

I pronounce it in my head as “D. Rabidea”. It was only recently that I realized it was “Drab Idea”. I haven’t taught my brain to read it that way, yet, though. [/off topic]

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Jul 21, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wow... I never saw it as D. Rabidea... but I read it as one word.

I never saw the “Drab Idea” there, but always said it in my head as dray-bid-ea.

Seriously… off topic, but kind of a funny post.

by AlohaSox on Jul 22, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

concur

positional scarcity makes Lavarnway extremely valuable right now. And Reddick’s recent resurgence makes trading Kalish away something that is at least tolerable, though maybe not desired.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Jul 21, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

No, no, no

You guys are crazy, and blinded by the fact that Kalish is currently injured.

Bringing up positional scarcity only applies to players who can actually field their position. Lavarnway cannot. He is currently a terrible catcher; his future is as a bad first basemen or as a DH. As a first basemen he is useless to us for obvious reasons. As a DH, his value decreases drastically, as you need to be Ortizian to put up high WAR value at the DH position.

Kalish is a plus outfielder who can hit for power and average, with strong plate discipline. He’s also an excellent baserunner. Lavarnway is more exciting right now, but Kalish is the better prospect.

by Jake_W on Jul 21, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

Also, it is exactly why I would trade Kalish. He’s got pretty decent weight as a prospect for a potential trade and I would pick Reddick over Kalish.

However, that doesn’t mean I would waste him on Doug Fister.

Hi ho, Duke!

by The Duke of Silver on Jul 21, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

The "Peter Gammons weighs in" article currently at the top of the site

says he’s made unbelievable strides this year, is throwing runners out, etc.

by dennet on Jul 21, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Regardless

Even if you trust Gammon’s sunny outlook, Lavarnway is still a long way from proving he can play catcher at the major leagues. Unless you believe Kalish’s injury is career threatening—and I haven’t seen anyone reputable making that claim—then the odds of him being a valuable major leaguer are much greater than Lavarnway’s chances.

I’d love it, obviously, if Lavarnway turns out to be a catcher. And I’d love it if Reddick turns out to be this good. But I really think people are overreacting to the immediacy of Lavarnway and Reddick’s performances. Based on much larger data sets, I still say:

Kalish > Lavarnway

Kalish > Reddick

by Jake_W on Jul 21, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't be so sure he's so far from being a catcher

Seems to be that his CS% goes up every year and each year his PB and WP% are going down and I’ve heard that pitchers like working with him, which is half the battle, I really think he’s approaching serviceable catcher territory, he doesn’t have to be great, but his bat plays like VMarts so as long as his defense isn’t worse he’s got a great shot and I’m not so sure it is worse.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Jul 21, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fair enough, and I'll grant you one point for sure:

it’s hard to be a worse defensive catcher than VMart.

by Jake_W on Jul 21, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Do you remember Mike Piazza?

great offensive numbers kept him highly valued.

by dsharp on Jul 21, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not "grea"t numbers...

Absurd offensive numbers kept him highly valued. Lavarnway is unlikely to be anything close to that good. And he’s likely—based on reports of his defense so far—to be as bad of a catcher as there is in the major leagues.

Look, I like Lavarnway. I was touting him over on the Beacon before the season even started. If people want to get excited about him, cool. What bothers me more is how low Kalish’s stock seems to have fallen, when every indication so far is that he’ll be better than Lavarnway or Reddick.

by Jake_W on Jul 21, 2011 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with you here.

Before we signed Crawford, and before Kalish was hurt, my dream OF for 2011 was…

Ellsbury in LF, Cameron in CF and Drew in RF, with Kalish starting the season in AAA and becoming the starting CF by the All Star Break, allowing us to trade Cameron to someone that needed his veteran presence.

Reddick was just a trade chip to me, with the potential, if he developed, to end up in RF for 2012.

Funny how it’s worked out, but once the shouler heals, I think Kalish still has the potential to be better than Reddick, even if we end up having to play him in RF.

Of course, either way… our OF right now (Crawford/Ellsbury/Reddick) or later (Crawford/Ellsbury/Kalish/Reddick) will put three CFs on defense, and even if Ells stays in CF, maybe the two on either side of him will help offset his interesting routes to the ball.

by AlohaSox on Jul 22, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

It’s not like Salt is a defensive wiz, but he’s decent overall. If he can be close to what Salt is on defense (like throw out 30% of runners), then we’re talking. Lavarnway has had extended offensive success in the upper and lower minors, something Salt has not had.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jul 21, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm sad I haven't been able to see Lavarnway at Pawtucket yet this season

I’d love to see how he looks behind the plate. That said, he didn’t look good during the AFL Rising Stars game this past offseason. Granted, that was just a single game and it’s hard to read into too much because of it, but it seems to line up with some of the bigger scouting names have been saying.

Although I will say this, I think Kalish COULD play CF in the big leagues someday, just like Lavarnway COULD play C in the big leagues someday. I think I’m one of the few people left who believe in Kalish more than Reddick at this point.

by South Coast Ghost on Jul 21, 2011 7:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

Lavarnway was on NESN tonight

as the Pawsox played against the Lehigh Valley Iron Pigs.

He went 2 for 5 with a HR & single. Came inches away from a 2nd HR that would have tied the game in the ninth, but his line drive headed for the bullpen was robbed by a great defensive catch.

He looks extremely confident at the plate. Very aggressively attacking the ball. Does a great job of keeping his torso balanced and attacking with his hips first. He generates viscious bat speed with his rotation. If he can keep his contact rates up like he has of late, he’s going to continue to tear the ball up.

He looked just fine behind the plate, for what it’s worth. No stunning plays. No glaring goofs.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Jul 21, 2011 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

You make a strong case, Buchanan.

BRING ME DOUG FISTER!

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Jul 21, 2011 12:03 PM EDT reply actions  

That was my reaction.

Before I read this piece, I couldn’t have told you what position Doug Fister played, or for what team. Now I want him to be our #5 starter (or #4, ahead of Lackey??).

by AlohaSox on Jul 22, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

The Mariner's side....

Why would the Mariners trade a young, decent looking and cheap starter? I can’t believe they are sitting back and thinking they have enough good young starters. Sure, they might take some Herschel Walker type of trade, kinda like a Ubaldo lite deal, but nobody seems to want to give up a top prospect or two for Fister. And why shouldn’t the Mariners ask for a top minor leage prospect for a decent, major league starter? Bottom line – they have no need to move Fister any time soon.
The only type of player the Sox are going to get on the cheap, in terms of prospects, is a pending free agent.

by Scoop1981 on Jul 21, 2011 2:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Because, as Ben mentioned,

what they really need is OFFENSE. Desperately. So, with Felix, Pineda, and one of Vargas/Fister, they’ve got a decent front three already. If they could get some offense to back them up, they might be able to win some games. You give up something you are more able to part with to acquire something you desperately need.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Jul 21, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Free agency helps push them this way too.

A pitcher is more likely to go to Safeco in the expectation that they’ll be able to get a good deal after their three year contract runs out thanks to some park-enhanced stats, while a hitter might scorn the place. They need team-controlled bats.

Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
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by Ben Buchanan on Jul 21, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Don't trade them Kalish.

While I can see the argument for Lavarnway as a VMart style catcher, with a big bat… I haven’t exactly been encouraged by what I’ve read of his defense (Gammons’ recent comments aside).

However, I can see where it might be attractive to a team desperate for some offense to consider a guy like that behind the plate, and if he doesn’t work there, they move him to DH. So… for that reason, I’d send them Lavarnway, and hang on to Kalish in case we cannot sign Ells longterm beyond 2013…

by AlohaSox on Jul 22, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

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