What To Do in Right Field?
by Slap Baseball on Jul 19, 2011 1:20 PM EDT
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Watching J.D. Drew swing a bat last night in Camden Yards was painful. His lack of pitch recognition is becoming more evident. Although, he was once sought after for having a great eye those times have faded. You be the general manager tell me what you would do.
I wouldn't get rid of J.D. Drew that's for sure. I'm definitely starting to think that Ryan Ludwick would be a good answer though. Ludwick could help balance out the lefty heavy lineup. Despite, Ludwick's bad numbers you do have to keep in mind he is playing in Petco.
Many people would rather just see Josh Reddick as an early audition for next year. I don't think this would be the best answer. I do believe in Reddick but I also remember he batted .230 in triple-A. The Red Sox are going for it all and even if Josh Reddick keeps playing like he's Manny in Los Angeles, I still feel Ryan Ludwick is a worth while addition. Even if it keeps Darnell McDonald from wearing a Red Sox uniform.
So play Theo Epstein and tell me how you'd go about it?
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Josh Reddick and Reed Johnson.
Johnson would come very cheap from the Cubs. It also allows the Sox to also make another deal to bring in a Edwin Jackson maybe.
I love Reddick, but I think we still need that “complementary right handed bat” in the outfield. I think it is really time to say good bye to J.D., even though I’m a big fan of him. He’s just not getting the job done.
Contributor To Over The Monster, SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site.
I seem to recall reading
that Reed Johnson was a Grade-A tool.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Or possible a Single A player with tools
"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 19, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay. I'd like a mulligan on that one...
.. except I realize that it wasn’t a great joke.
Okay, removing hands from keyboard in 5, 4, 3, 2 …
"Laser show. So relax."
Francona is to McDonald and Jenks as Infant is to Plastic Bags and Matches
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 19, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Reed Johnson:
1.4% BB 22.7% K 39.5% O-swings .400 BABIP and below average defense since 2007.
I’m not all that high on Ludwick either: 31.8 O-swings 8.1% BB .306 OBP (.333 career OBP), with decent defense.
Drew’s bat has clearly slowed down (as seen by his lower contact rates). However, the numbers also suggest that he has been a bit unlucky. That said, this comment is completely untrue:
His lack of pitch recognition is becoming more evident.
Drew’s BB-rate is 12.3% and his O-swings are 25.7% While the latter is a career-high for him, the average for O-swings this year is 29.9%. Drew’s glove is still very good (in a tough Fenway RF). And his pitch-recognition skills are better than Johnson’s or Ludwick’s.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 19, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
He just doesn't take swings at good pitches
I’ve seen J.D. Drew watch great pitches go right by him this year tons of times. Usually, when someone has a bad contact rate it could be due to a lack of pitch recognition. I think Drew looks like he goes up there looking to draw a walk and nothing else. You can throw any statistic you want at me, I never have appreciated J.D. Drew in his time at Fenway.
I don’t want Ryan Ludwick for just pitch recognition, the Red Sox need a hitter. The guy had excellent numbers in STL. Only when he has been in Petco has his numbers gone down. Previously, he had hit almost 100 RBI’s a season for the past two in STL, and was on his way to a third straight one in STL before being traded. I don’t understand how anyone can call Ryan Ludwick average. If traded to Boston Ludwick could easily hit 10 homeruns from August through September with the right playing time.
by Slap Baseball on Jul 20, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
"You can throw any logic and facts you want at me...
…but I still won’t change my emotional, irrational opinion!"
Also: RBI’s.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jul 20, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 20, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions
What About RBI's
Ludwick has 61 not an awful number for being on a team that doesn’t score…
by Slap Baseball on Jul 21, 2011 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Open google in a tab or new window
And search “rbi” and “terrible tool for evaluating offensive talent.” See where that takes you.
If you reach Jim Bowden’s OPSBI’s, you’ve gone too far.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jul 21, 2011 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Can you just put the link up
I couldn’t find it but would be interested in reading the article.
by Slap Baseball on Jul 21, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
There is no link.
Just see where that takes you.
Hi ho, Duke!
by The Duke of Silver on Jul 22, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Ludwick had "excellent" numbers in only one year with St. Louis
That would be in 2008.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 20, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Someone suggested Ty Wigginton
on another thread. I kind of like that idea. He will be cheap, bats righty and can play both OF and 3B.
.230 BA was backed by a terrible BABIP
While still hitting the ball hard. Just bad luck and I think the way he’s played here since shows that it was just some bad luck also. You’re also forgetting that his OBP was 100 points higher than his AVE, very impressive for a player who hadn’t much patience before.
Our offense is tops in the league, and that’s with half a season of Drew and Cameron holding it down. Furthermore, Ludwick owns a .333 wOBA against lefties this year and a .324 wOBA against them over his career, why get a right handed bat that has reverse splits? We might as well stick with our lefty bat Reddick who didn’t have much in the way of splits in the minors.
Why is our offense the problem? Pitching folks, pitching.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Ludwick worries me
because over the course of his career he has hit better against Righties than lefties. Probably still better than Drew’s current production. The primary thing to look at should be how he hits lefties, not what side of the plate he hits from.
He’s hitting better against LHP this year, but he didn’t do well at all against them last year. I just don’t think he is worth it personally.
by The Name is Dalton on Jul 19, 2011 2:17 PM EDT reply actions
Over his career he's been below average against lefties, this year he's just average.
He doesn’t make sense at all.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
right everyone says he's better than Drew is giving us
but if we ARE going to get someone to improve the position lets not improve it to merely below average- lets find someone that will at least give us pretty good production against lefties.
As I think about it more
I really don’t think we need to bring in yet another outfielder. We’ve got one prospect hitting well in the majors, another highly regarded prospect recovering from injury in the minors. A speedy homegrown player in center, and yet another bloated contract in left. Really, all you need to do is play Reddick in right and have Drew as the 4th OF/pinch hitter. DFA McDonald, or Eric Patterson him to one of the Marlins, Astros, White Sox, or Mariners for a pitcher to take Dice-K’s spot in the rotation. Yeah, Reddick bats lefty, so what? If we keep hiding under the table every time a left handed pitcher comes to the mound we’re going to end up with a roster of Jeff Bakers and nobody in the minors. If it’s really that big a deal then after this year let Ortiz walk, shift Youk to DH and sign (or trade for) a third baseman who can be above average defensively at his position so that he and Pedroia can hide Scutaro/Lowrie/Navarro’s below average glove. The Sox have the best offense in the league with Mike Cameron and Darnell McDonald having gotten significant at-bats so far. Call me crazy, but I think Reddick could put up at least a .600 OPS against lefties, which is better than what either of them have done so far.
Sorry for the rant.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Rant justified
Not only what you said, but the big (top shelf) name lefties are the ones that I would most want another RH hitter in the line-up for, and at this point I’m not sure how many incredible LH starters we’ll face in big games. To be clear, it would be a “nice to have” but not in my opinion a “need”.
Off the top of my head, David Price we’ll probably see 1-2 more times, and CJ Wilson from the Rangers. Gio Gonzalez from the A’s, but we have beaten him this year I think, regardless he is a tough LHP. CC is obviously the biggest LH starter we’ll see multiple times but we’ve handed him 3 of his 4 losses as is. I don’t count Romero from the Jays because we kill him, and JD Drew hits .500 against him so he would be in the line-up against him anyway. I’m sure I missed several we’ll likely face, but none who scream “automatic loss” to me.
The big issue I could see would be IF the Sox AND the Phillies make the WS, we would be up against two top LHP. I have a couple small problems with overloading specialist hitters for that situation. One is that one of those guys is Cliff Lee who can be dominate in the playoffs regardless of how you hold your bat. And the other problem is that at least one of those starts will be played in Philly, where the Red Sox might play Gonzo in RF and Ortiz at 1B and make that RH bat less important.
Again, obviously it would be nice to have a solid RH bat on the bench. But I think you’re right, no need for a big move to get one. Especially not with the current starters we have running out there in spots 3-5.
by The Name is Dalton on Jul 19, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Want to clarify on this: I’m not sure how many incredible LH starters we’ll face in big games."
I assume it goes without saying that I mean before the playoffs. Obviously any LH starter we face in the playoffs is a “big game” and if the race tightens than there are plenty of big games down the stretch.
by The Name is Dalton on Jul 19, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
In the playoffs
I think regardless of the handedness of the opposing pitcher we just need to run our normal lineup out every day. Crawford might suck against lefties, and Reddick’s unproven, but the rest of the team should be more than enough to knock a guy like CJ Wilson around a little. At least enough that someone like Lester or Beckett could pick up a win.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 19, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Sick and tired of this .230 number
I have a long commute so I (unfortunately) listen to WEEI. Every time someone isn’t mentioning that Drew is the antichrist the mention of starting Reddick is met with “yeah, well he’s a .230 hitter in AAA.” Honestly, we have a strong defensive, cost-controlled, outfield prospect with power who has been developing on base skills recently. His current rate is unsustainable, but this isn’t John AAAA who’s got a hot streak going, this is a legitimate major-league prospect who has been steadily improving on parts of his game that were lacking. His .230 average was affected by a post call-up slump that was in no way helped by a terrible BABIP. His current rate is not sustainable, but to suggest that he can’t be a solid, contributing, and effective major leaguer based on his AAA batting average that completely looks past the relatively impressive OBP seems to be jumping the gun on a guy who is still a prospect with impressive skills and plenty of room to grow.
Go Sox
by MikeAtBU on Jul 19, 2011 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
This is exactly right.
He might not be a .300 hitter (for those who are worried about BA), but .230 certainly wasn’t representative of his true talent either.
"Are you a real doctor, or a doctor like Dr. Pepper is a doctor?"
Just because a player has hit lefties well this year means nothing
So just because Jeff Baker, Michael Cuddyer, etc, have an attractive looking platoon split so far this year, really does not mean much. The samples are so small as to have little to no predictive power. Cameron and McDonald crushed lefty pitching before this year, and look what happened there.
Also given that the offense has not had any trouble scoring on LHP, and is actually on a near historic pace for bludgeoning opponents on the head with runs, a bat is probably the least of this team’s concerns.
A back-end starter is probably the only addition they will seriously be looking to add via trade. Mainly due to uncertainties on Buchholz’s health, Miller being able to keep his head above water and Wakefield/Lackey’s inconsistency.
Baker and Cuddyer have attractive CAREER splits.
Mcdonald is a minor league player and Cameron is about 40 years old coming off of an injury. Cuddyer and Baker are real platoon players that can get stuff done.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 19, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Baker isn't going anywhere according to the Cubs GM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/cubs-do-not-intend-to-trade-jeff-baker.html
Read that and then stop mentioning Jeff Baker…
by Slap Baseball on Jul 20, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Realize that GMs often say one thing and then do another
and then soften your tone.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I kick kids out of class for less than that
“Read that and then strop mentioning Jeff Baker….”
Consider yourself ejected. Hightail it to the Headmaster’s office
"And come back when you're attitude improves."
The Internet:
Ruining our youth’s inter-personal skills since whenever it was Al Gore invented it.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Ahh to be young and believe everything you're told
How many African princes owe you money right now?
The next person who says "But he's versatile" in a serious manner
is going to have a rabid weasel put in their pants. I never want to hear that phrase again.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 20, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions
First of all, he didn't say "BUT he's versatile"
He mentioned that he IS versatile.
Secondly, is there something about players that play more than one position that the rest of us should know about before you start unleashing rabies, David?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
'10
we picked up what? Four players because they were “versatile?”
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 20, 2011 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions
So you hate all versatility because of it?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Plus also in addition
you think that’s the reason we had a shitty 2010?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Hall had intangibles out his ass.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
He looked like Don Cheadle!!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Maybe that was the problem
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jul 21, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok?
You just also mentioned Sean Marshall in an earlier post like he was so attainable and I read earlier the Cubs wouldn’t surrender him unless they obtained a prospect like Jonathan Singleton from the Phillies. I just think you attack many proposals without noticing the outlandishness of your own. Your right many times GM’s do completely different than what they say. I just think the Cubs intend on contending next year and don’t see a reason they’d move anyone but Alfonso Soriano and that’s only if the Angels declare they want another outielder lmao.
So, maybe you oughtta word it more closely to that next time.
Essentially, something along these lines:
I just think the Cubs intend on contending next year and don’t see a reason they’d move anyone but Alfonso Soriano and that’s only if the Angels declare they want another outielder lmao.
…would have gotten your point across along with the link you posted, and you wouldn’t have sounded like an @$$hole doing it. That’s just a little feedback point for you. It’s a community. Be more communal.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
here are the reasons why i think we will have a new rf/addition
- first of all: i’m not a big fan of exessive trading and i’m usually very conservative in proposing trades
- i really love reddick but he’s obviously not going to hit like he does at the moment for the rest of the season.
- while the pawtucket outfield looked very crowded at the start of the season there isn’t really anyone left to play rf on a high level
- theo almost always get someone at the deadline, at least a minor deal is made (for a speedster like roberts or brian anderson for example)
- theo doesn’t like to be unprepared…worst case would be not getting a rf and reddick falling off a cliff a day after the deadline
- 40-man roster crunch next offseason: there are 43-44 people that deserve a 40 man roster spot next season, maybe it’s better to “cash in” on the 3-4 now than to lose them via waivers (soxprospects has good info on this matter)
- because of the luxury tax theo needs to get creative
so who do we go after? not one of us is able to even make an educated guess! it obviously is dependent on the asking price of the sellers and nobody (including sportswriters) has enough insider info on that topic (exeption: very high profile deals)
so here are a couple of interesting trade targets:
high profile:
- beltran: would be a great fit, no speed left, but demand is high and asking price atm is insane (mets asked for dominic brown), cannot be offered arbitration, so no compensation, expensive (18+mil this year)
- kemp: mvp cailber bat, below average defense, decent sb threat, relativly cheap (gets 7mil this year), under control for 2012 (arbitration)
- cuddyer: not available
tear 2:
- hunter pence: well rounded player, above average defense, no speed, not sure about his contract status, may be arbitration eligible in 2012 depending on super 2 status, relativly cheap (~7mil/year)
- francoeur: good defense, good season with the bat (but as streaky as they come), no speed, cheap but with mutual 2012 option (4mil), interesting note: always seems to be better for the team that acquires him
- willingham: always seems to be on theo’s radar, down year, still hits lefties, below average defense and no speed
my personal preferences:
high profile: the more i think about it the more i like kemp. his defense is obviously not his strongest feat, but his ops (.961) and speed combination are just so good….the obvious obstacle will be the asking price, but it’s been remarkably silent around him and the whole dodgers issues. he is going to get expensive next season, are the dodgers in a stable enough situation to be able to afford him? the question is what to do in 2012 with reddick, kalish and kemp batteling for one corner outfield spot, but that’s a nice problem to have
tear 2:
- francoeur: this actually seems to be the most reasonable acquisition, he is not going to cost a ton of prospects, probably 2 + x of those 3-4 mentioned above (pure speculation on my part), tradewise this is a pretty good match, the question is whether theo think’s he will continue to hit.
Here's the thing about the RF spot.
Before Reddick came in, we got just about no production from that spot in the lineup between JD Drew and Mike Cameron, and guess what? After the horrible start, we’ve been on a 110 win pace despite Drew and Cameron. Reddick doesn’t have to be as good as he is now, this team can carry him through any struggles he has without missing a beat, we know this because they’ve already done it. I would rather play Reddick there and go through all the growing pains now and have an experienced RF ready for next year to duke it out with Kalish for the starting spot.
In respect to your worst case scenario, it’s already happened and the Sox weren’t phased by it in the least.
As for always making a move, I think the move if in the OF will be for McDonald’s replacement or, more likely, a starting pitcher for this year, and next year. Just because, if you’ve got to spend as many prospects as we do (roster crunch) you might as well fix the actual problem you have and not the theoretical problem we may have. That actual problem is pitching.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
If you start getting your hopes up for Matt Kemp...
…You’re only going to end up heartbroken. I would die of surprise if he was traded to the Sox.
by South Coast Ghost on Jul 24, 2011 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions
I would die of anger
I like watching Kemp fail too much to want him on the Red Sox.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 24, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I get the same reaction when looking at him
that I get when I watch Crawford, Lackey, Ethier, and Teixera play. I can’t explain it, but watching them do poorly in a game makes me feel good about the game. I don’t want them to get hurt, but if they go 0-4 with three strikeouts and a double play, then I consider that game a good one. This is partially why I’m so against the Crawford and Lackey contracts, for one, they’re both being paid way too much money for far too many years, but even more than that I WANT to see John Lackey give up 5 runs in three innings, I want to see Carl Crawford get gunned down trying to stretch his single into a double. As Joe Posnanski would put it, I Clemenate these few players.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 24, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Well at least you can admit it
That said, if your anger was the price to pay for Kemp on this team, I’m sorry, prepare to be really angry, because I would do that deal all day and night.
Thankfully for you, however, I don’t see Kemp being moved anytime soon, if at all.
by South Coast Ghost on Jul 24, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think I could handle being really angry
but I’d pretty much bitch nonstop about him, just like with Crawford.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Jul 24, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed, getting kemp is pretty much a pipe dream at best...
…but hey, cashman always seems to find good players for a shovel of dirt at the deadline, maybe this time it’s our turn =)
where did you hear that?
the only thing i found was this: The Royals are looking for “near ready” starting pitching for Jeff Francoeur
and that is pretty much as vague as is get’s.
well according to Jayson Stark
they want a near-big-league-ready No. 3-type starting pitcher in return.
yeah i read that article, but the part concerning francoeur is not written very well i think
But the Royals have told all teams that have called on both Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur that A) they’re more inclined to move Francoeur (because they control Cabrera through next year) and B) they want a near-big-league-ready No. 3-type starting pitcher in return.
does that mean that they want a 3rd starter for either one or only for cabrera?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/stark-on-shields-melky-soria-marlins-.html
mlbtr interprets this as:
Kansas City is asking for a number three starter who’s nearly Major League ready in return for Cabrera.
english is not my native language so i may be mistaken =)
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