Will Middlebrooks Lone Red Sox Prospect on Keith Law's Updated Top 50

by Marc Normandin on Jul 14, 2011 4:48 PM EDT in Minors

PHOENIX, AZ - JULY 10: U.S. Futures All-Star Will Middlebrooks #16 of the Boston Red Sox throws the ball to first base during the 2011 XM All-Star Futures Game at Chase Field on July 10, 2011 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

An ESPN Insider subscription is required, and Keith Law has a family to feed, so I won't be pasting gigantic chunks of text from his article today. But I did want to mention that Will Middlebrooks, previously not ranked, was ranked #42 in Law's updated Top 50 prospects rankings:

Analysis: He still has to work on recognizing off-speed and working the count. Otherwise he should be a plus defender at third who hits for 25-plus homers.

We've talked about Middlebrooks and his lack of working the count in the past, of course. He has tremendous plate coverage that helps to make up for some of it, but he will have to learn a little bit in order to avoid being exploited at the highest levels. His .315/.359/.498 season at Double-A Portland has been his very best as a professional, though, so there is something to be said about a bat that continues to improve each year, even when facing more difficult competition each time out.

Just for kicks, this is what I wrote about him in Baseball Prospectus 2011:

After a promotion to High-A, Middlebrooks' numbers progressed once again. His isolated power climbed to .163 on the strength of hard-hit doubles, and he posted a 25.2-percent strikeout rate (after entering the season with a career rate of 30.0 percent) thanks to excellent plate coverage. The third baseman is one of the top defenders at his position in the minors, but he's not without his worrisome traits, as he drew just 13 walks in his final 69 games after strolling to first 22 times in his first 45 contests. The development (or stagnation) of the 21-year-old free swinger's plate discipline at his next gig in Double-A could go a long way toward determining his career arc.

He has 18 walks in 68 games (and 274 plate appearances) so he has at least kept up his previous pace as far as walks are concerned, despite the promotion. His strikeout rate is just 22.8 at Double-A (a new career-best) and his .183 ISO would be a new career-best as well. It's no wonder he was one of the Red Sox's representatives at this year's Futures Game. The 22-year-old is still a few seasons away most likely, but in Law's eyes, he is now Boston's top prospect.

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It's not unreasonable to put him as the top guy in our system

Soxprospects has him listed at 4th, but above him are Kalish (who’s been on the DL a while), Ruando (who’s had a good but not great year so far in the Mid to High A levels.) and Iglasias (who has an ISO of .018 to go with his .227 average at Pawtucket). Middlebrooks definitely has some work to do on plate discipline, but a pretty good case can be made for putting him above any of those three, particularly Iglasias. I’m not positive that he is the #1 prospect in our system, but a reasonable case is definitely makeable.

by Maeamian on Jul 14, 2011 5:02 PM EDT reply actions

For sure

And Law avoids players who have already been in the majors or exhausted their rookie status, too, so that just means he likes Middlebrooks more than Ranaudo, who, other than Law, has basically been the consensus among national experts for the Sox top prospect.

Twitter: @Marc_Normandin

by Marc Normandin on Jul 14, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I always find it interesting

that prospect mavens seem to place a higher value on power than plate discipline. Law is not as extreme as Baseball America in this respect, but he still that way in his rankings pretty often.

On the one, this approach seems to chronically underrate players like Youk or more recently Dustin Ackley or Kailsh, while on the other hand Reddick looks to be emerging into a good example of a player with raw power whose plate approach matures.

I would not put Middlebrooks at the top of the system just yet, personally, though he has jumped way up with his performance thus far. His glove might be an important tool in getting him to the show, since Youk’s mobility might be an issue in the near future.

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by Mattsullivan on Jul 15, 2011 1:06 PM EDT reply actions