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David Ortiz, Hall of Famer(?)

I want to start doing more open thread chats. Today's is a thought exercise in predicting the future. What does 15-year major leaguer David Ortiz--who is now hitting .324/.390/.602 with 14 homers in his age-35 season--have to do to be worthy of enshrinement in Cooperstown, whenever he decides to hang it up? Is he already worthy? Will he never deserve the right?

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Ortiz is the Home Run Hittingest DH of all time

That alone ought to give him consideration if he retired today. Obviously we’ll see how DH’s get treated by hall of fame voters (my prediction is not well), when Edgar comes up for a vote, but if Papi’s resurgance lasts this year and he can put up numbers on a similar order for the next few, it’d be hard to not put the man in Cooperstown

by Maeamian on Jun 8, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree, it really depends on Martinez.

If voters decide that DH’s are okay for the hall, I’d guess a couple more years of this current resurgence would put him in the conversation.

by ThePanda on Jun 8, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

500 HR, 1500 RBI

I think would get him in the discussion.

The Peds stuff may keep him out, though.

by flasoxfan on Jun 8, 2011 12:15 PM EDT reply actions  

If they're keeping Bagwell out on substance-less speculation...

… I’m sure that would keep Ortiz out.

Being a DH is going to be a huge impediment. I don’t think he gets in. Another 137 HR, 500 H, an MVP and/or one or two more World Series rings might do it.

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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 8, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

A shame that those are the things required.

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by Rogue Nine on Jun 8, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tough to say

His production since June last year has been great, like the Ortiz of old, this year it’s even better. If he were to retire this year, I don’t think it happens. If he plays a couple more years at a 2010 or 2011 pace I think he makes a decent case. I think he’s not in now, a couple more years I think puts him borderline-in. In no way will he ever be a slam dunk candidate.

Will he go down in Rogue’s HOF as my all time favorite Red Sox? That’s an affirmative.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Jun 8, 2011 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

What about

having his number retired by the Red Sox?

by magicbosox on Jun 8, 2011 12:36 PM EDT reply actions  

I like that idea

But the Sox have a firm set of rules for that (of course they have been broken)

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by brogshan on Jun 8, 2011 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Those are the old owners' rules.

the new guard has their own criteria.

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by TheLoneDavid on Jun 9, 2011 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

I predict one of those unofficial retirement things

Where no one wears 34 until about a generation later when the kid who grew up watching Ortiz wants it.

by Maeamian on Jun 8, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

a generation?

I think the kids being drafted the last 5 years or so grew up watching Ortiz

by wolf9309 on Jun 8, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

When, exactly? And how?

Just in case you find it interesting, MLB has had some PED testing in place since 2002, and ‘strong’ testing since 2005.

Was Ortiz’ ‘cheating’ in 2006 & 2007 when he posted wOBA’s of .427 & .448, respectively?

Was Ortiz ‘cheating’ in the spring of 2010, when he was slumping? Did he start cheating as of June, 2010 when he resumed hitting like a beast?

Is he cheating now? His current wOBA of .429 is the second highest of his career. Better than any he posted prior to 2005. His current SLG, of .602, is right there with his 3rd & 4th best seasons. Only one season prior to 2005 was better (2004, at .603).

If he isn’t cheating now (because the testing is much, much tougher now) – and he’s putting up these numbers. Why is it so hard to believe he couldn’t put up slightly lesser numbers back when he was younger without ‘cheating’?

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Jun 8, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

That doesn't mean he 'cheated'.

Showing up on the list means you either
a) tested positive for something from a very broad list of things ranging from uber-roids to over-the-counter and perfectly-legal nothings.
b) refused to take the test

Beyond that, the list doesn’t tell us anything.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Jun 8, 2011 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sadly being a DH will all but nix his chances

Perhaps if Edgar’s numbers go up from 36% the DH will get more love, but I doubt it.

Best case scenario Papi ages gracefully and has two-three more productive years, but I think that will still leave him with numbers that are just short of the hall. If he hadn’t had the injury too his wrist it might have been a different story.

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by brogshan on Jun 8, 2011 12:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm thinking DO will join the Smoky Joe Wood club of non-HOF RS greats

of really extraordinary players who weren’t extraordinary in enough dimensions for the HOF. For Wood, the dimension was time – he was HOF great in 1912 only, and then got hurt. For David, and probably any DH who isn’t Superman, the knock will be – however unfair – that he didn’t play the field too.

In a way, the “ring count” is a legitimate factor – if DO influences enough playoff games to be the key factor in the Sox getting a title, then that deserves to be a factor that could mitigate the inherent weakness of being DH.

I wouldn’t even have dragged Wood out of ancient Sox history if 1912 wasn’t such an important season in franchise history – if Wood had pitched 464 innings and won 34 games in 1924, with a losing team, who would care? I’d never have heard of the guy.

by dabize on Jun 8, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions  

No way

by old school thinking DH+PED=no, by “new shcool” thinking his DHing has lead to an aggregate WAR that is just not enough.

by Buzzy on Jun 8, 2011 1:03 PM EDT reply actions  

agreed

People keep comparing him to Edgar, but that’s just a bad comparison. Edgar had 69.9 total WAR while Ortiz stands at 33.9

Half the total and Edgar is having voting issues?

Some people forget how long Edgar dominated. He had 3 seasons with 5.4+ WAR, 5 seasons with 6+ WAR and 1 7+ season. Ortiz was great from 2004-2007, but he does not even come close to making the HoF

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by TroyPatterson on Jun 8, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right.

If Ortiz can play at around the level he is now until he’s 40, maybe he’s got a shot.

by wolf9309 on Jun 8, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

concur

Though Ortiz’ will probably get more sentimental votes, coming from the big market like Boston and also having the rings.

Edgar excelled somewhat in obscurity. Hell, his numbers also suffered from getting such a late start at the MLB level. I still can’t fathom that the M’s had him stuck in AAA until age 27! He probably could have posted at least a couple more awesome years.

He absolutely destroyed PCL pitchers from ages 24 – 26.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Jun 8, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Course, I think Ortiz was 27

when he became a fulltime player. Right? That’s off the top of my head.

by wolf9309 on Jun 8, 2011 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Ortiz got 326 PAs at age 22 with Minnesota

and another 478 at age 24. So he was definitely given the chance to succeed at the MLB level a little younger than Edgar was.

Papi came to Boston at age 27, and that is when he started to bloom, obviously.

Edgar’s being stuck in Calgary from ages 24-26 were a real crime. The Mariner’s had him ‘blocked’ by the immortal Jim Presley at 3B during those years (87-89). Presley’s OPS numbers for those three years were: .729, .635, .660.

Edgar posted .907, .983 & .979 in the PCL during those three years. Yes, that was in the hitter-happy PCL. But when he finally got ‘full time’ duty with the Mariners the next year, he showed it was for real by immediately posting the string: .830, .857, .948, .744(injury), .869, and then he finally reached his prime!

From that point, he proceeded to post SEVEN straight years with an OPS of .966 or higher, including 5 over 1.000!!!

During that time, pitchers were terrified of facing Edgar. He was a monster with that bat.

If the Mariners had had the intelligence to bring him up earlier, he could have well over 1000 extra base hits on his resume’ (as it is, he has 838).

I love Papi, and he’s still got time to post some big seasons. But right now, he’s still behind Edgar by a bit in the ‘greatest DH ever’ consideration.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Jun 9, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Alas, no

But the Sox should retire his number, and I think it’s open-and-shut. Yes, they have their rules, but nobody has been so closely associated with this team and its championship success over the past 7 years as David Ortiz.

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by Ben Buchanan on Jun 8, 2011 1:16 PM EDT reply actions  

In addition to Ortiz

I think a case can be made for Varitek and Wake to have their numbers retired. I know the Sox dont retire many numbers but those three definitely have made a case for it.

by dja9783 on Jun 8, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

At first glance I say no.

DH doesn’t have the same value as other positions, but he is probably the best DH (that only DHs) ever. Because of that, he’ll probably get some consideration, but I’m doubtful that he’ll get in.

As for PEDs: if there is anyone that could get in with PED linkage, it’s Ortiz and Pettitte. Nobody ever liked A-rod and Bonds. Plus, Manny got caught too many times. He’s one of the few (maybe the only) that has gotten caught after that list in 2003, which started the testing program. A-rod may have a worse chance than Ortiz because his records are highly visible, which brings his PED use to the forefront.

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by BoldandBrash on Jun 8, 2011 2:52 PM EDT reply actions  

Cooperstown, no

But as for the Red Sox Hall of Fame, he’s a definite yes. And I think the Red Sox HOF is a pretty awesome honor.

And that brings me to another good discussion: how many Red Sox since 2000 will make the Sox HOF?

Papi, Pedro, Schilling, Foulke, Papelbon, Lester, Varitek, Garciaparra, Gonzalez (projection), Pedroia, Youkillis… that’s off the top of my head.

And yet another good discussion: will Manny go into the Red Sox HOF? I find it hard to imagine and hard not to imagine at the same time.

by AGuinness on Jun 8, 2011 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

I would probably add

Wakefield to the list above. I might take Foulke off, but he did have a phenomenal year in 04(especially postseason) and made the last out against St. Louis so we’ll hear his name forever. If he had had a couple more good years or did more for the community, I would say he was a no-brainer. He didn’t exactly have the best relationship with Sox fans/media when they booed him the year after, but I can see how that would rub him the wrong way.

Depending on how the next 4-5 years go, I suppose you could consider Beckett there as well.

by The Name is Dalton on Jun 8, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'll always appreciate Foulke

The number of pitches he threw in the 2004 post season was out of control and he never was the same. I think he should have been the WS MVP, too, but based on what he did for the team to win that World Series and its impact on him after, I think he’s more than worthy to be in the Sox HOF.

Right on about Wakefield – slam dunk.

by AGuinness on Jun 8, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hear ya

I definately appreciate him basically sacrificing his arm that postseason. I wouldn’t definately take him off the list, he’s just the only one there that makes me think twice. I wouldn’t start a riot if they let him, in other words, I would be fine with it.

by The Name is Dalton on Jun 8, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yup

I just hope Johnny from Burger King doesn’t put up a fuss. :P

by AGuinness on Jun 8, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1

Hopefully Johnny has moved up in the world and is now Johnny from Panera Bread or something.

by The Name is Dalton on Jun 8, 2011 4:39 PM EDT reply actions  

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