Francona on Reddick
by steel sox on Jun 30, 2011 12:49 AM EDT
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PrintAre you like me? Have you been wondering why the Red Sox manager has been starting sub-Mendoza stars Darnell McDonald and Mike Cameron when a young kid with a lot of promise and a hot bat is on the bench? WEEI's Big Show had Terry Francona on Wednesday (conversation on Reddick starts at the fourth mark) and asked him if he would start Josh Reddick over the likes of McDonald and Cameron, citing Reddick's above-.400 batting average. Francona responded:
He has done a really good job in a small sample size for us. But you can't get too carried away with that. He was hitting, I think, .240 in AAA... I think you get my point. You don't run away from your guys for the flavor of the week--I think that's a bad way to manage. And I love Red. And again, as long as Red wants to help us right now, that's great, because he's maturing by the week. And he's doing better. And as this kid does mature, you're going to see a better player, and hopefully he'll keep it. Consistency's been a real hard thing for him the last couple of years, but hopefully he starts to get there.
I would like to formally submit my disapproval of this managerial decision. I would form an argument why, but I think most fans on this site already know what I would say, none of it being original. My main objective here is rather to air out Francona's words so more people can know exactly what he's thinking.
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In principle, I agree with this
But in this situation, with McDonald and Cameron being SO BAD and the season approaching the halfway point, I just can’t see this situation as being a normal one where you get carried away with a rookie.
I'd be amazed if either Cameron or McDonald could hit .240 in AAA right now.
If hitting .240 was alone a measure of any real value. But come on Tito. You’ve been playing two guys who have shown you really nothing this year and you have a young guy with a new approach that is currently working rather well, go with it.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Exactly...and not only that
Reddick has his youth, which means he has a future, whether it is here or building up his value as trade bait to fill another hole if Kalish comes back healthy and outplays him. Cameron and Dmac are probably on their way out with this club. My guess is there is zero chance either of these guys will be here next year. Get Reddick alot of the at bats, so during the offseason your staff can help him look at film of 150-200+ ABs (assuming he’ll get that much) rather than 75 or less at bats. The more experience, the more likely you will find the flaws in your approach and learn how to fix it.
by The Name is Dalton on Jun 30, 2011 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Duh
except that McDonald has a 1100+ OPS in the same AAA this year and Reddick doesn’t. Isn’t close. Francona is totally right about the “flavor of the month;” I used the same term a few days ago. It is not like anyone (including Francona) thinks Mcdonald is a good player. It is that he has had a decent go at hitting lefties in his short career and is 32 so there is not reason to think that other than a very small sample size of less than 50 abs that has changed. On the otherhand, Reddick is being boosted in your eyes by an unsustainable hot streak that cannot continue. It is not like Francona is not playing Reddick-he is siting him against lefties. I already went through this-given Reddick’s track record in the majors, minors and age, it is totally NOT unreasonable to give Mcdonald LHP ABs over Reddick-and I bet the braintrust above Francona agrees because there is cooperation in the organization on these things (unlike the Grady days).
I don’t like McDonald, and when he plays I don’t want to see him hitting 5th. But you lose the argument when you focus on his hitting of LHP vs Reddick’s. Glove is a different story.
The hot streak doesn't have to continue, though.
It has to last…until Crawford gets back. That is the perfect time to play the guy…while he’s on a hot streak, sustainable or not.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Over 9 games for McD... woooo
Reddick’s hotstreak has nothing to do with why I want him playing. I’m looking at the whole package, despite BABIP issues, his OBP was a full 100 points higher than his BA and he was still flaunting some dangerous power, all the white being a plus defender.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
come on now-
9 games for McD…11 for Reddick in the bigs. Logic fail alert.
I don’t know how many more times or how more clearly I can say it than I already have, it isn’t about the streak, 9 games, 11 games that isn’t what I’m talking about. His hot streak is as equally meaningful as McDonald’s 9 games of success in the minors this year, not at all.
Look at the whole picture this year. Darnell has been crap at the plate this year, his stats and just watching him show that very well. Reddick has come to play this year with a new plate approach, and while bad luck and age factor in to make the results a little less spectacular but for him they’re a step up and he has far more upside over McDonald. His defense alone I think makes him worth the replacement, against lefties and righties, his bat makes it even better. I’ve been a Reddick believer for a long time, I think part of his problem has been us moving him around so much, he was called up right from AA a couple years ago if I remember and since then he’s been all over the place. It’s not like he’s a late bloomer and is just hitting the radar now like say Doubront, who I never knew of until last year, he’s been a prospect for a while.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
And again you contradict yourself.
If streaks, 9 games, 11 games etc are not what you focus on (presumably because you understand that that is far too little to go on) than how has Mcdonald’s season to date been indicative of anything? Is it not more rational to judge a 32 year old on his age 29-31 results which, while a small sample, is most certainly bigger. As I have repeatedly said, Mcdonald is not Cameron-he is not 39 years old. This is a much more reliable indicator than Rogue Nine saying he “looks bad” at the plate.
Second, with regard to something else you are missing-the evidence we have, based on all data (as opposed to your eyes) says that when facing a left handed pitcher, Mcdonald should be more effective. The only arguments you or any can use to rebut this is:
a)the small sample fail of Mcdonald so far or the small sample success of Reddick so far. However a more rational argument says to simply ignore this.
b)Reddick has more upside and Mcdonald is an AAAA replaceable part. This is all true but it is not relevant to the argument about who should hit LHP better now.
c)Reddick’s results in AAA this year. As I said below-even if you artifically boost his babip this argument holds no water.
Thus, with regard to WHY people are getting on Francona for this it is completely misplaced. It is an emotional respose based on the boom of Reddick and the bust of Mcdonald (even if that is not your argument). Get on him because Reddick is more complete, can field or because you are excited to see him. Don’t get on him because Reddick is going to make such a massive difference at the dish.
Finally, my own opinion here, and of course I could be wrong and hope I am-Reddick is a David Murphy calabre player when he matures. Which is useful but nothing special.
I just feel that McDonald has earned nothing, even against lefties, his wOBA against lefties is a very average .333. And Reddick doesn’t appear to have much in the way of significant splits over his minor league career either, there have been some years where he’s actually hit lefties better. (Link for splits)
I think if we’re going to give a guy his shot, then give him his shot. McDonald is a replacement player through and through and frankly was lucky that Cameron was lame because it should have been him to be DFA’ed. We have this prospect who’s biggest problem I think has been that he’s been bounced around with inconsistent at bats for the last few years and right now he has a shot to get in some valuable major league time and Tito is effing it up by sitting him half the week because we have some guy who is league average against lefties, some say that Drew’s problems against lefties the last couple of years are because Tito didn’t let him face them enough for him to get into any kind of groove.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
That's fine
I think 0.333 is actually a fair bit above average against LHP for a LHB (which is what we need to compare here) and that is what you would have to argue Reddick can do. I doubt it.
But I understand what you are saying. You have to understand that it is a hard sell for the team to give Reddick a shot with so many OFs. They are not ready to sit Drew for good just yet, and obviously Crawford and Ells will and should start. So past Sunday Reddick is a bench player even if Mcdonald is DFAed. That is not a good situation for a guy that should be playing all the time, especially if he is working on a changed approach. Next year, with Drew gone, this is a totally different story. The Mcdonald issue is not germane to Reddick getting his shot because regardless of his performance, Crawford’s injury was not goint to keep him put for long.
He is a plus defender
that is why if you want to make the argument about playing him make it there. Even if you correct for his babip and factor age and level he is not impressive yet. He may be a late bloomer, but even guys with 1000ops’s at 24 in AAA are not good hitters usually in the majors.
He may not be impressive
But neither is McDonald and he hasn’t been hitting at all this year, his “career” averages are barely serviceable anyway, why not dump him for a guy who has hap upside for a while now?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
you can't dump him
because doing so means that Reddick rides the pine form much of the second half when Crawford returns. That is not haelpful. You don’t dump him now (if by dump you mean release) precisely because he is not in the long term plan. And his career numbers, while nothing special, are better than you can expect from Reddick against LHP.
I'm actually a big supporter of Reddick for RF
I for one believe that Drew is done. That’s where he can get his at bats, as a full time starter on a team that can afford to carry a player, they’ve been doing it for Drew all year so far.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Which is why Reddick needed as many PAs while Crawford was on the DL as possible.
So we can get a feel for whether it’s time to let him take over for Drew in RF when Crawford is healthy (even if it’s just a few games a week and not everyday), or whether he should be sent back to Pawtucket, where he can get ABs every day.
Crawford
returns in 3 days, so it matters not-unless like Rogue you think any team would dump Drew for a guy like Reddick. I think that is pure fantasy, no team would do it because the potential upside of Drew returning to even his form of last year overrides the need to “see” Reddick play in the bigs when he will get his chance in a mere half year anyway but otherwise is likely to contribute in the longrun this year not so incredibly much.
I don’t think it will happen, but it’s what I want to happen. At some point you just have to call it right? I mean, it’s July, at what point does a slump become a permanent decline in ability? Drew has given us almost nothing this year and he will almost certainly not be back next year so we’re going to have to replace him anyway, why not get started with a guy who likely won’t be any worse than Drew has already been going forward?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
.240 with severe BABIP issues and an OBP over 100 points higher.
I remember having this argument before…
He’s not going to put up the slash line we’re seeing now in the majors, but he’s also not a .240 hitter, probably somewhere in between, higher BA/SLG than Drew, but a lower OBP. Much better than Darnell Frickin’ McDonald and Mike Cameron’s broken hip.
DFA The Tampa Bay Rays
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Fear the Roar.
Say you give Reddick a "Reddick-neutral"
BABIP of 0.280. Then you are talking about a guy that at 24 in AAA is about a 1000OPS. Those guys-over a sample of 600PAs in the majors tend to be low 700s OPS guys in their first go around. Subtract 50 points for LHP split and you are talking a 680OPS against LHP. That is what Reddick really is most likely in the majors against LHP right now. Despite being much worse than that in a very small sample, Mcdonald has shown over a somewhat bigger (but not big) sample that he can OPS well over that. From 2009-2010 he was about a 800 OPS against LHP between the Reds and Sox.
2010 174 PAs 0.821 OPS
2009 57 PAs 0.921 OPS
Those are small samples too, but it is not crazy at all to play Mcdonald over Reddick against LHP. You guys are being bias due to Reddick’s hot streak, Mcdonald’s cold one (both really small samples), a love for the young guys that come up through the system, and the fact that Sox fans in general right now are panicing about the team’s play…
but we're talking about the short term, not a long term starter
so a hot streak and a cold streak are very relevant. We need someone to help tide us over until our actual left fielder is back, and the fact that McDonald just isn’t seeing the ball well right now shouldn’t be ignored just because he’s had success in the past. I’d agree with you if we were talking about part of our starting lineup for the year, but you can’t just dismiss a hot streak or a slump when we’re talking about a short term thing.
if you believe that hot streaks mean something
I don’t. Anyway-I agree with you all that I would rather play Reddick-largely because he is much better in the field. My points are:
a)Please stop acting from an offensive standpoint that there is NOT logic to Francona’s side.
b)Stop overrating Reddick’s offense.
I don't think I am overreacting to Reddick's offense.
I barely touched on his ML numbers, only long enough to say he WON’T put up those numbers in the Majors for long. However, when he’s putting up an OBP 100 points higher than his batting average, that says that he’s finally learned patience. In ‘09 and ’10 he was swinging at everything within ten miles of the strike zone. Now it seems like he’s tightened that up and learned to start taking a walk every now and then. Yes, if you look at ONLY ‘09 and ’10 there is logic to Tito’s argument, but if you look at what is fast becoming a full half-season of data this year, Reddick is a far superior player to what he used to be and should be the starting fielder for now.
DFA The Tampa Bay Rays
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on Jun 30, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
first of all it does NOT show that
it shows that in half a year as a 24 year old in AAA he has shown better patience. It could be a fluke, or it could be that he can do this against younger pitchers, but neither is proof that he can in the majors. I recall an argument that Ben and I had when we signed Scutaro. Ben argued he had changed his approach based on one year of data showing a different swing profile. I said one year is one year. Who was right? Further, you totally ignore my point-even a 1000OPS AAA/24 Reddick is basically no better (likely worse) than McDonald against LHP.
I agree-Reddick should play. But he is playing against RHP (which is usually 70% of the time). I would even start him against LHP because at least he can field-but again don’t make the plate discussion out to be so clear cut, and stop acting like Reddick is a good hitter at this stage of his career.
This is why this argument seems silly, though it filled a page.
Regardless of the “why” everyone agrees that Reddick should be starting over McDonald right now (and the FO apparently agreed we had better options than Mike Cameron at this point as well).
Whether the defense (which Reddick has a decided advantage in), the “hot streak” vs. “slump” argument, the long-term potential represented, or – I’ll add a fun one – the basic ability to run the bases without falling down… At this point (with Crawford on the DL), Reddick should be starting in LF against all RHPs, and should be considered against LHPs as well (did okay today, no?).
So… what are we arguing about? The “why” Reddick should be starting over McDonald? Hey, I like McDonald… wouldn’t mind keeping him as a 5th OF… and if he recovers the swing against LHPs he had in the past, he makes a good spot starter. But let’s stop arguing the “why” here… right now, we should be starting Reddick over McDonald.
I agree
but people are missing the point when it comes to this issue. The hitting is not the issue here.
And Cameron always has been a completely different issue. I am not surprised he was DFAed because he is ancient and has had health problems. He is finished.
In regards to this:
You don’t run away from your guys for the flavor of the week—I think that’s a bad way to manage.
Yes Terry, but the current flavor tastes really, really awful. I mean, vomit when you smell it bad.
by The Name is Dalton on Jun 30, 2011 8:12 AM EDT reply actions
The answer is somewhere in between
I’m not opposed (or at least I wasn’t) to a platoon. Reddick would be getting the lionshare of starts if they didn’t encouter such a run of lefties. I would play Reddick exclusively against righties (as he is today) and get half the starts against lefties just to see what he can do. If he continues to perform well then I would siphon to two starts a week away from JD and one or two from CC and Ellsbury to give them a breather. With two months of regular AB’s, you will get a better idea of what you have and decide if he’s the answer or if you need to make a trade deadline deal.
Tito is right. He’s more likely to hit .240 than .440 but with a lack of options, it’s best to throw him in on the deep end of the pool to see if he sinks or swims before he gets buried on the depth chart or sent back to AAA.
Yeah, he's more likely to hit .240 than .440
but I think he’s also more likely to hit .280 than .240, and OBP .350 than .320.
DFA The Tampa Bay Rays
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on Jun 30, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Who's more likely to be an IMPROVING player at this point of their careers - D-Mac or Reddick?
Yes, I see their past performance and recognize the small sample sizes of 2011, but it’s clear that Reddick is at an age and point of his career where improvement is likely and D-Mac is at a point in his career where decline is more likely.
Reddick may not be the player his past performance indicates, he may be better. D-Mac may not be the player his past performance indicates, he may be worse.
Reddick wins clearly.
So Francona doesn't take defense into account.
“I think that’s a bad way to manage.”
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jun 30, 2011 12:33 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
Back to rogue's point about Reddick's
being pushed and pulled all over the place. He turned 22 in ST the year he debuted as a AA Wonder despite free-swinging issues. Another half-baked top prospect brought up too soon and too often? I think so.
The Sox dealt with his ‘free-swinging’ ways by being inconsistent in his development. Ironically, Tito says “Consistency’s been a real hard thing for him the last couple of years, but hopefully he starts to get there.” IMO he’s just about there. He knew he had to figure it out and he did, last year, when he spent most of the season in AAA working on plate-discipline and consistency, at age 23. In his recent interview, he acknowledged and emphasized that.
His defense, arm, speed, baseball savvy, power, durability are obvious assets. In fact, for what it’s worth, the ball he dropped the other day was his first E at that level since 2009. Small sample size, also for his hitting. But he has hit in 9 of his last 11G with just 1K. He will come back to earth, and he isn’t a .450/.450 hitter but, if he has truly figured it out, he might well hit.300/.360 with power; a more powerful version of Ells & Jedi. If he has figured it out, he is more than Dave Murphy, whom the Rangers find very useful. So I agree that Tito should ride his torrid streak in LF now until CC returns. If they do, this belated consistency on the part of the Sox will win games now and give evidence of how consistent he can be long term. And Theo needs this information asap.
But he was going to do this anyway
Crawford returns in 3 games. We face 3 righties in Houston. It is a non-issue.
i think Crawford's getting re-examined in 3 days
sounds like they aren’t 100% sure he’ll be back then. I’m kinda guessing based on the language I’ve heard that they expect him after the break.
Happ on Saturday is a lefty
While we’re on the topic, up above you said the team should be facing righties normally about 70% of the time, but looking at the schedule from here on out I think they will be facing lefties more than 3 games out of 10. As rotations are set up now, in just the next ten games before the ASB, for example, there will be five lefties (Happ plus Cecil and Romero for Toronto, Britton and Matusz for Baltimore). Of all the teams left on the schedule, all but three rotations feature multiple lefties (as many as three in a few cases), and two of those (the Rays and Yankees) have singular lefties (Price and Sabathia) that the Red Sox will be sure to see each series they play if at all possible.
can't really judge that this far in advance necessarily
for example Matusz was just optioned to AAA today, Cecil has been mostly in the minors this year and isn’t pitching well enough that it looks like he’ll be up much (probably he will be up next week), Britton’s outings are going to be more limited in the second half of the year as he’s a rookie on an innings limit. All kinds of situations like that. So It may be that we face more lefties than usual, but it could well not turn out that way.
Matusz was just sent to AAA
Cecil may not make his start (arm issues), Happ is not someone that I would care about his splits (OPS against LHB is 0.966 this year) so seems pretty typical.
And yet Tito will still sit all our lefties against him.
DFA The Tampa Bay Rays
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Fear the Roar.
Tito's mostly right
the love being shown Reddick (and I know people like him here) reminds a little of the love being shown Sam Fuld earlier in Tampa. Now Reddick is much younger than Fuld, and I get they are completely different players, but I look at Reddick’s numbers and I don’t see how he translates into even an average major leaguer. You can argue he was getting unlucky in AAA this year, but even last year this was a guy with a OPS of .767.
Again, I don’t see it. Right now 36.7% of his balls in play are line drives. Given the line drives he has hit, he hasn’t been lucky. But there is nothing I see that remotely suggests he is going to keep this up.
The Sox need a major league right handed bat. Reddick isn’t the answer to this problem.
Tito is an excellent manager but he isn't the Hoodie!
I learned that the Hoodie is always right! I know what I see… Drew, McDonald and Cameron were/are having a terrible time hitting anything! Especially with Crawford hurt, Reddick should be playing everyday! When Crawford returns (After All-Star? bummer!) I see no reason why Reddick shouldn’t be spending some days in RF. Let the kid play we are getting below nothing for the other options currently available.
To start the season I wanted Lowrie at SS. His bat lit the fuse for a team that couldn’t find their way early in the season, not that the pitch kept any games close… Also granted Lowrie’s Def has been at time embarrassing!
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