Who Replaces Dice-K?
Let's assume Daisuke Matsuzaka is out for the year due to Tommy John surgery, as the rumors have stated. Who replaces him in the rotation, either internally, or via trade? And... go!
12 months ago
Marc Normandin
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Wake until ASB, then Doubront
Aceves is a great bullpen piece. Weiland will be as well.
I’d give Miller a shot later in the year. He might be able to fill that spot next year. But the most likely 2012 5th starter is Doubront. Prepare him as such.
Wake has been fine
I am far more worried about the pen at this point.
Agreed.
The pen has been a significant disappointment considering the money put into it. So far Wheeler and Jenks have been injured, or unreliable. Hopefully Wake can keep it going in the rotation for a while as the pen solidifies.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Jun 2, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree.
I don’ t see much of a problem with the Pen. There isn’t a dumpster fire out there that you cringe when he enters. Everyone has had some solid outings. Sure, there have been Albers, Bard, Wheeler and Jenks meltdowns….but i’m pretty confident with all of those guys for the rest of the season. Hill has been great, Paps has been better than anticipated, Aceves/Atchison have filled the longish-man role well.
To put it into context, with the Jenks/Lackey roster moves, somebody useful will end up in Pawtucket. The last couple of years, the last 2 or 3 spots in the bullpen have been filled with guys who shouldn’t be in the majors.
And, as we know, ‘how much money spent on a bullpen’ isn’t even worth considering. Spend money, don’t spend money, it’s russian roulette.
I agree
The pen has a whole has been far more reliable than last year’s edition, I’m very pleased with it. I think some of the players we spent a lot of money on have been dissappointing so far, but for everyone one of those guys we’ve had a Matt Albers or Okajima come in and pitch fine in their place which makes the difference.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Albers concerns me the most
and his floor is probably still not-that-bad-of-a-last-guy bullpen member. He can mop up and pitch 2 innings….or he can become the 7th inning guy. We’ll see.
I am anticipating a DL trip for Hill just for precautionary measures. Even so, Oki can come up and fill that spot for a while. He’s earned another opportunity, I’m just glad that Hill’s value has been realized.
I still don't know what to think of Albers
I’ve loved the results so far and his 3.92/2.21/3.32 ERA/FIP/xFIP line is quite good. However it’s based off of a K rate higher than anything he’s ever shown in his career, I don’t know if it’s the change in scenery, something new about his mechanics that hasn’t been picked up or some luck that will eventually fade. For now, I value him as a member of the pen that can pretty much do anything for us.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Of course, he's also using a very different pitching motion than the rest of the career
but I’m guessing as more batters face him and more video appears, that will probably go down a bit. Still, even with a lower K rate, he looks like a very effective reliever to me.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 2, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as there is less Atchison in my life
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by Marc Normandin on Jun 2, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Still, he's in very low leverage situations
and won’t be on the staff by Sunday, right?
I like Atchison.
Ben…I got a problem with one of the new guys.
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by Drugs Delaney on Jun 2, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
well,
seeing you are an alien.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jun 2, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Is this what all the alien jokes have been about?
Guess I was a little slow to pick up the fact that we’d added a bunch of new staff.
It's a gizmo thing.
(OT) Your league should do an update like the Gedman and Tek leagues.
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I have jumped on the alien bandwagon.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jun 2, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions
has to be Wake
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lets give him some time
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by Marisa Ingemi on Jun 2, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Large scope of possibilities.
I don’t consider Miller or Aceves to be legitimate long term options, neither have great control, putting them in the rotation is just asking for pain.
I’m fine with Wake for now, we know that his product is going to be remarkably Dice-K-esque, a couple amazing games when the knuckle is great, a couple terrible games when the knuckle is just a slow pitch over the middle and a couple games where he gets hit but mitigates damage.
Doubront I think will be pretty mediocre as a starter also, I think he could hold it down OK, but he’s going to need time to work back up to the pitch count we’re going to need from him.
But in house, our options are Dice-K like in terms of probable results and generally, the people haven’t been happy with those, eager to find a replacement. If TJ surgery is the outcome, it may very well be likely that Dice will never throw another pitch for Boston. In that case, we’re going to need a replacement for next year also, I think we might want to go out and get someone. The off-season’s free agent crop isn’t too awe inspiring, Buehrle tops the list of definite’s I think and Sabathia would be ‘the guy’ if he opted out, but even if he opts out, he’ll probably just end up back in New York for even more money than the amounts that I made fun of them for in the first place.
Looking at the bottom rung teams I see players like Brett Myers, Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, Jon Garland, Aaron Harang, Carl Pavano, Scott Baker (depending on just how frantic the Twins become), and Chris Capuano who could become available, if we take on salary they probably wouldn’t cost us a whole lot at all.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I think the most likely trade candidates could be the White Sox
If they’re still trailing the Indians and Tigers going into the ASB then I think we could get Jackson, Humber, or Floyd.
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by TheLoneDavid on Jun 2, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I like dempster the best
I think he’s an attractive option for the sox because his contract is up after this year and he has no buyout. Low risk high reward.
by Slap Baseball on Jun 2, 2011 2:24 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
I'm not sure why Pete Abraham said...
…that Dempster isn’t a good pitcher. So his ERA is inflated to start the year. All of his numbers look fine. Time will fix that problem.
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by Marc Normandin on Jun 2, 2011 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably because Pete Abraham sucks
I think Dempster’s been pretty unlucky so far, his peripherals are about where they always are, I think his stats will settle down as the year progresses.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I would love to have Dempster, but I don't think it's very likely.
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by TheLoneDavid on Jun 2, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Aceves, then Wake - depends on health and Aceves' next start.
Aceves has had only had one bad game. He could be a legit starter if he’s healthy. To say he’s not enough of a control pitcher is ironic when you consider he’d be the replacement for Dice-K – the ultimate nibbler.
On the other hand, if his next start shows more wildness then Wake could be the better option. I don’t think we need to get anyone from outside right now. When the first one of those two breaks down (and he will) the other can stand in until he breaks down (and he will).
Unfortunately, Aceve’s good games are an illusion. His walk rate is 3.51 and his K rate is a very low 4.86. His xFIP is 5.13, excluding this year (which is likely an injury issue) Dice has never had an xFIP over 4.75. Aceve’s performance so far is due more to luck than to skill I think.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Take it from a fan of another team he played for.
Aceves is not, nor should he ever be considered, a viable long term answer in the rotation. He can be be helpful as a short term replacement/spot starter and/or a long relief guy, but the Sox do not want to be running him out every fifth day for the rest of the year.
I think we should look at Slowey.
The Twins want to trade him and he’s in spring training right now, so maybe we could get him for almost nothing. I don’t know if he has an option, so if we called him up after rehab, we may not be able to send him down, that is if he ever makes it. This would give another option besides Millwood, Wake, and Aceves.
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+1
The twins are tanking and both Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker are intriguing options.
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I know Pavano has looked better with the Twins, and was good with the Marlins...
However, considering the disaster that he was with the Yankees, I kind of just want to leave him untouched. He had a chance to pitch for the Sox back then, chose the Yankees and they suffered for it. I say leave him be.
I was just going to post this
I’m trying to think of any scrappy white utility infielders the Sox may have to offer. Lowrie’s still useful, so that’s right out.
But, yeah, the Twins don’t want Slowey and Slowey doesn’t want to work out of the bullpen so slotting him into the Sox rotation would work out.
Twins aren’t going to trade Baker. Yet.
I think Tazawa is coming back from TJ this year himself
I think dropping him straight into the bigs full time would be rushing things
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yeah he is
but is making rehab starts at the moment. Not good ones yet, which is kind of expected. If he can re-find his form and pitch well, then maybe he’s an option. Until then, he’s definitely off the list.
For 11 and 12...
In 11 I go with the rotation of Wake and Aceves, since they can’t seem to pitch good games consecutively. Once the ASB comes around, judge whether or not it is working, if not, we plug in Doubront.
Once the deadline comes around, get Ryan Dempster, or someone else on a one or two year deal. If he only has 1 year, you need a 12 replacement however. Go with someone in free agency.
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How about Charlie Morton over in Pittsburgh? He’s had an amazing season so far, and Pittsburgh is always looking to deal.
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