The days after the amateur draft are always full of feel-good optimism, but it also got me to wondering how current successful players would break down by original draft spot. I first took a look at the current Red Sox active 25-man roster. Next I examined the 2010 WAR leaderboard for both position players and pitchers. I decided to use 3.5 as an arbitrary cutoff. I’d feel comfortable labeling any draft pick that became even a ~3-win contributor as a useful piece for a good team, and therefore a success. 3.5 in my (obviously subjective opinion) mind starts to toe the line between “useful” and “important”. After all, drafting is not necessarily a failure if you don’t produce any stars; a couple decent players good enough to hold their own relative to league-average, a few effective relievers, mid-rotation starters, etc, can all provide cheap homegrown value during their cost controlled years even if they never make an All-Star team or win an MVP.
After the jump: the current Boston roster.
Name |
Round/Pick |
By? |
Aceves |
Amateur FA |
|
Albers |
23rd, 686th |
|
Bard |
1st, 28th |
Red Sox |
Beckett |
1st, 2nd |
Marlins |
Bowden |
1st, 47th |
Red Sox |
Buchholz |
1st, 42nd |
Red Sox |
Cameron |
18th, 488th |
|
Crawford |
2nd, 52nd |
|
Drew |
1st, 5th |
|
Ellsbury |
1st, 23rd |
Red Sox |
Gonzalez |
1st, 1st |
Marlins |
Hottovy |
4th, 125th |
Red Sox |
Lackey |
2nd, 68th |
|
Lester |
2nd, 57th |
Red Sox |
Lowrie |
1st, 45th |
Red Sox |
McDonald |
1st, 26th |
|
Ortiz |
Amateur FA |
|
Papelbon |
4th, 114th |
Red Sox |
Pedroia |
2nd, 65th |
Red Sox |
Saltalamacchia |
1st, 36th |
|
Scutaro |
Amateur FA |
|
Varitek |
1st, 14th |
Mariners |
Wakefield |
8th, 200th |
|
Wheeler |
34th, 1024th |
Rays |
Youkilis |
8th, 243rd |
Red Sox |
Impressions: A good chunk of star power was after the first round here. I was especially surprised Crawford wasn’t a first round pick. The fact that the Red Sox developed Lester, Papelbon, Pedroia, and Youkilis from non-1st rounders, all within a short span of time, is a testament to the scouting and player development staff that Theo Epstein has painstakingly assembled. Getting +15-18 WAR from four cheap internally developed players who come up almost at the same time is every GM’s wet dream. Lastly, a big thank you to the Florida Marlins for those 90-loss seasons.
2010 – Pitchers
Player |
WAR |
Round/Pick |
Cliff Lee |
7.1 |
4th, 105th |
Roy Halladay |
6.6 |
1st, 17th |
Justin Verlander |
6.3 |
1st, 2nd |
Josh Johnson |
6.3 |
4th, 113th |
Ubaldo Jimenez |
6.3 |
Amateur FA |
Felix Hernandez |
6.2 |
Amateur FA |
Adam Wainwright |
6.1 |
1st, 29th |
Francisco Liriano |
6.0 |
Amateur FA |
Jered Weaver |
5.9 |
1st, 12th |
Jon Lester |
5.6 |
2nd, 57th |
Zack Greinke |
5.2 |
1st, 6th |
Tim Lincecum |
5.1 |
1st, 10th |
CC Sabathia |
5.1 |
1st, 20th |
Clayton Kershaw |
4.8 |
1st, 7th |
Roy Oswalt |
4.7 |
23rd, 684th |
Yovani Gallardo |
4.6 |
2nd, 46th |
Chad Billingsley |
4.6 |
1st, 24th |
Dan Haren |
4.5 |
2nd, 72nd |
C.J. Wilson |
4.4 |
5th, 141st |
Colby Lewis |
4.4 |
1st, 38th |
John Danks |
4.3 |
1st, 9th |
Gavin Floyd |
4.3 |
1st, 4th |
Anibal Sanchez |
4.3 |
Amateur FA |
Tommy Hanson |
4.3 |
22nd, 677th |
David Price |
4.3 |
1st, 1st |
Hiroki Kuroda |
4.2 |
Japanese FA |
Mat Latos |
4.0 |
11th, 333rd |
Ricky Romero |
4.0 |
1st, 6th |
Matt Cain |
4.0 |
1st, 25th |
Brett Myers |
4.0 |
1st, 12th |
John Lackey |
4.0 |
2nd, 68th |
Edwin Jackson |
3.8 |
6th, 190th |
Mark Buehrle |
3.8 |
38th, 1139th |
Cole Hamels |
3.8 |
1st, 17th |
Chris Carpenter |
3.7 |
1st, 15th |
Jason Hammel |
3.7 |
10th, 284th |
Max Scherzer |
3.7 |
1st, 11th |
Clay Buchholz |
3.7 |
1st, 42nd |
Wandy Rodriguez |
3.6 |
Amateur FA |
Johan Santana |
3.5 |
Amateur FA |
Shaun Marcum |
3.5 |
3rd, 80th |
Ryan Dempster |
3.5 |
3rd, 66th |
Impressions: Former first round picks dominate the list, which is to be expected as most first round pitchers are taken for their potential upside to begin with. Of the "star" pitchers (5+ WAR) only Verlander, Greinke and Lincecum were top 10 picks. If nothing else, this illustrates the basic unpredictability of pitcher development. For every Lincecum there are 5, 10, or 20 Luke Hochevar’s that never live up to their potential. Lots of teams must also be kicking themselves for missing out on Tommy Hanson. Of the 42 pitchers above, 20 were first round picks, and only seven were top-10 picks. Two of the most purely dominant pitchers present and past, Felix and Johan, were not acquired through the draft at all.
2010 Position Players
Josh Hamilton |
8.7 |
1st, 1st |
Evan Longoria |
7.5 |
1st, 3rd |
Albert Pujols |
7.5 |
13th, 402nd |
Carl Crawford |
7.5 |
2nd, 52nd |
Joey Votto |
7.3 |
2nd, 44th |
Ryan Zimmerman |
7.2 |
1st, 4th |
Adrian Beltre |
7.0 |
Amateur FA |
Jose Bautista |
6.9 |
20th, 599th |
Matt Holliday |
6.6 |
7th, 210th |
Andres Torres |
6.6 |
4th, 117th |
Robinson Cano |
6.6 |
Amateur FA |
Troy Tulowitzki |
6.6 |
1st, 7th |
Carlos Gonzalez |
6.6 |
Amateur FA |
Rickie Weeks |
6.5 |
1st, 2nd |
Miguel Cabrera |
6.3 |
Amateur FA |
Brett Gardner |
6.2 |
3rd, 109th |
Shin-Soo Choo |
6.0 |
Amateur FA |
Kelly Johnson |
5.9 |
2nd, 38th |
Aubrey Huff |
5.8 |
5th, 162nd |
Joe Mauer |
5.6 |
1st, 1st |
Angel Pagan |
5.4 |
4th, 136th |
Chase Utley |
5.4 |
1st, 15th |
Jay Bruce |
5.3 |
1st, 12th |
Nelson Cruz |
5.2 |
Amateur FA |
Adrian Gonzalez |
5.2 |
1st, 1st |
Stephen Drew |
5.1 |
1st, 15th |
Justin Morneau |
5.1 |
3rd, 89th |
Daric Barton |
5.1 |
1st, 28th |
Jason Heyward |
5.1 |
1st, 14th |
Dan Uggla |
5.0 |
11th, 338th |
Chase Headley |
4.9 |
2nd, 66th |
Scott Rolen |
4.9 |
2nd, 46th |
Brian McCann |
4.8 |
2nd, 64th |
Michael Bourn |
4.8 |
4th, 115th |
Chris Young |
4.6 |
16th, 493rd |
Hanley Ramirez |
4.6 |
Amateur FA |
Ichiro Suzuki |
4.5 |
Japanese FA |
Ryan Braun |
4.4 |
1st, 5th |
Martin Prado |
4.4 |
Amateur FA |
Brandon Phillips |
4.3 |
2nd, 57th |
Alexei Ramirez |
4.3 |
Amateur FA |
Marlon Byrd |
4.3 |
10th, 306th |
Colby Rasmus |
4.3 |
1st, 28th |
Kevin Youkilis |
4.2 |
8th, 243rd |
Nick Swisher |
4.2 |
1st, 16th |
Rafael Furcal |
4.2 |
Amateur FA |
Austin Jackson |
4.1 |
8th, 259th |
Cliff Pennington |
4.0 |
1st, 21st |
David Wright |
4.0 |
1st, 38th |
Drew Stubbs |
4.0 |
1st, 8th |
BJ Upton |
3.9 |
1st, 2nd |
Placido Polanco |
3.9 |
19th, 530th |
Vernon Wells |
3.9 |
1st, 5th |
Paul Konerko |
3.9 |
1st, 13th |
Carlos Ruiz |
3.9 |
Amateur FA |
Alex Rodriguez |
3.8 |
1st, 1st |
Buster Posey |
3.8 |
1st, 5th |
Victor Martinez |
3.8 |
Amateur FA |
Ben Zobrist |
3.7 |
6th, 184th |
Andrew McCutchen |
3.7 |
1st, 11th |
Corey Hart |
3.7 |
11th, 321st |
Shane Victorino |
3.7 |
6th, 194th |
Alex Rios |
3.6 |
1st, 19th |
Curtis Granderson |
3.6 |
3rd, 80th |
Torii Hunter |
3.5 |
1st, 20th |
Ian Kinsler |
3.5 |
17th, 496th |
Adam Dunn |
3.5 |
2nd, 50th |
Ike Davis |
3.5 |
1st, 18th |
Impressions: Scouting and signing international amateur FA’s is apparently becoming more and more important. There also seems to be much more variability among position players in regard to draft spot. Of the 68 players listed, less than half (27) are former first round picks. 30 players had "star" caliber seasons (5+ WAR); of those only 12 were first rounders, seven of whom had been top-10. A hell of a lot of teams whiffed on Pujols, Crawford, Votto, Bautista, and Holliday.
In the end it seems the overriding principle of the draft is that quite simply, you never know. Intelligent and efficient use of scouting and financial strength allows a team to buy as many lottery tickets as possible, and make calculated investments that a few of them will develop into useful pieces or even superstars. Fortunately, this is something the Red Sox have done very aggressively under the current management group, in conjunction with exploiting the free-agent draft pick compensation system. Especially with the possibility of more overhauls to the collective bargaining agreement and the existing system of signing international amateur players, it makes you wonder how this list might look in another five years.