Should The Red Sox Take A Chance On Scott Kazmir?
According to a report from Mike DiGiovanna from the LA Times, the Angels are expected to release left-handed pitcher Scott Kazmir from their roster later today.
Kazmir was once a highly-touted left hander for the Tampa Bay Rays, holding a career 55-44 record with a 3.92 ERA and a ridiculous 9.4 SO/9 rate in five-and-a-half years with them. He was also a cornerstone piece that ultimately got the Rays to World Series for the first time in franchise history. Of late, though, Kazmir has fallen from grace.
Since Andrew Friedman decided to trade Kazmir to the Angels in 2009 he has lost his status as an elite pitcher. In about a season-and-a-half with the Angels, Kazmir is 11-17 with a 5.31 ERA and a lower 5.7 SO/9 and higher 9.1 H/9. Due to injuries, Kazmir has only been able to start just one game this year. In his lone appearance, Kazmir only lasted 1.2 innings, giving up five earned runs on five hits.
Kazmir is the clear definition of a declining pitcher, but is he worth a shot if you are Theo Epstein?
Because Kazmir is expected to be released, not traded, the Angels will be forced to eat all of Kazmir's salary including a buyout, so which ever team picks him up won't have to inherit any of his previous salary excepting the league minimum.
Epstein recently took on a struggling pitcher in 26-year old Andrew Miller and stashed him in AAA Pawtucket in order to further develop his skills. Before being traded to the Red Sox, Miller was a career 15-26 with a 5.84 ERA in five seasons with the Florida Marlins. Since then, Miller has changed some things in his mechanics and appears on his way back to the majors after having a successful stint with Pawtucket.
While Miller never had much success in the majors, Kazmir has had success. He, along with Kevin Millwood could be stashed in AAA Pawtucket for a little while, and can be used as an emergency call-up if necessary. With Miller coming up, Kazmir with time could slide into his spot in the Pawtucket rotation and hopefully can work to at least become a serviceable starter (or even reliever) again.
As DiGiovanna explains, Kazmir would certainly be a work in progress:
But Kazmir, who has lost considerable velocity on his fastball and command of all three of his pitches, has made no progress - he has a 17.02 earned-run average for Salt Lake, allowing 29 earned runs, 22 hits and 20 walks and striking out 14 in 151/3 innings.
When Kazmir officially reaches free agent stature, I believe he could potentially be a a low-risk, high-reward guy on a minor league deal. With his success in the past, the folks in AAA could possibly help him (like they did Miller and are currently do with Millwood) become a serviceable starter for the Red Sox.
As we've found out this year and in the past, you can never have to much pitching depth.
What do you think?
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You really can’t have too much pitching. Additionally, I would love to keep another prospective starter away from the felons down south. However, I doubt that he would be willing to come here on a minor league deal; I’m sure that there’s a team blind enough to give him a role in their bullpen or as a prospective starter. But if he’s offered a minor league deal with substantial reward next year or this year if he makes the majors… that could get it done.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
The idea would be to chance it with Miller,
replacing him in Pawtucket with Kazmir.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jun 15, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think that idea would be too great.
I think there’s a significant chance that Miller’s career long control issues are going to catch up with him in the Majors. I know he’s got only 1 walk over his last 25 innings, but years of data suggest that he’s riding a hot streak, not that he’s legitimately changed as a pitcher. I think he’ll be back to his spot in AAA before long.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
And if this is the case
Then having Kazmir is still entirely a bonus. If Miller’s issues aren’t fixed, than it’s entirely possible they won’t be fixed and having him in Triple-A is no great boon. Might as well give Kazmir a go instead.
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USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jun 15, 2011 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Hm..
I didn’t think about that. Shall I start the ‘Release Andrew Milller’ bandwagon yet?
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Years of data supported the idea that Jose Bautista was riding a hot streak around this time in 2010
DFA Rev Halofan
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Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on Jun 15, 2011 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
If you’re willing to bet on Andrew Miller becoming the Jose Bautista of pitching, you’re making a bad bet, to say the least.
Jose Bautista is a unique, one of a kind (stress that again) guy.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not, I'm just saying data can be wrong.
DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on Jun 15, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Well,
at least we’ll have a couple of opportunities to see if he’s for real.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's hoping he is
I love me some Wake, but the Sox really can’t afford to have TWO #5 starters, and with Lackey making the big bucks he’s not going anywhere.
DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on Jun 15, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
We could always
trade him to LAA. I hear they’re always on the lookout for players that can’t play up to their contract.
Seriously though, I hope things get better with him. He’s going through a really rough phase.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Is he unique?
Or is he just David Ortiz 2.0?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Ohh...
I think he’s a great deal better than Ortiz.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm just saying that Jose Bautista's 'zero-to-hero' routine is far from unique.
The degree of greatness is different but the path is the same.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Good Point.
I’m just being brash in my judgment of Andrew Miller.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't mind a minor league deal
But I voted “no” on the poll, assuming they meant that it would mean adding him to the overall roster.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
I would rather pick up young guys who still have something in their arm
Poreda for instance, if he can be taught control like Miller he could be a better option than Kaz.
The only reason I might want Kaz is for the Crash Davis factor, so he can mentor the guys in the minors.
DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on Jun 15, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Low risk
So why not? The loss of velocity is worrisome, but we’re talking about the deep end of the depth chart.
I've lost no love on the man
But at the same time, a chance is a chance, and if we can pick him up on the cheap then there’s not much reason not to.
Hellllllllllll no
Kazmir is utterly fried.
He was already terrible (and had lost velocity) last year, and he is barely hitting 85-86 this year. His K rate has utterly collapsed and he’s never had good control. All his other indicators have been trending down for a long long time. There’s literally no upside here. He’s pretty much a left handed Kevin Millwood at this point, with worse control, and a smaller repertoire, and a long injury history.
Agree totally
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 15, 2011 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh God, seriously?
There is literally nothing that suggests that Scott Kazmir, as currently constituted, is a superior option to Tim Wakefield, Alfredo Aceves, Felix Doubront, Kyle Weiland, Andrew Miller, Brandon Duckworth, Kevin Milwood, stretched-out Scott Atchison, signing Bill Hall to pitch, foregoing the DH and letting Big Papi pitch or forfeiting every fifth start.
Not only can’t he get AAA batters out, he can’t not walk them and usually can’t even avoid hitting them. He’s not currently an acceptable major league player at any level and I don’t see how he could possibly get there by the time the season ends. This is not “low-risk, high-reward” or even “low-risk, low-reward,” it’s low-risk, absolutely no reward.
He provides no utility. He’s terrible. He’s done. Let him be done for the Angels.
"Laser show. So relax."
If loving Hot Carl is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 15, 2011 4:30 PM EDT reply actions
Final insults:
He’s sub-Pattersonian. I’d rather have Eric Gagne starting every week.
"Laser show. So relax."
If loving Hot Carl is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 15, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather have Eric Gagne Gregg starting every week.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd rather have Eric Roberts, honestly...
"Laser show. So relax."
If loving Hot Carl is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 15, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d rather have Erik Gagne Gregg Estrada starting every week.
by The Name is Dalton on Jun 16, 2011 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
the chances that Kazmir resembles a viable starter in any way
going foward are very very low. I don’t see the point.
So, you're saying there's a chance?
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Very few things have an absolutely zero probability.
An example of a statement with zero probability: “The Yankees and Jets do not suck.”
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
by lone1c on Jun 15, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 15, 2011 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions
This is an excellent statement.
And deserves to be nominated for a Pulitzer. Or a Nobel prize.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Truisms?
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Hell if I know.
You think I’ve won a Nobel prize?
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe the Literature prize?
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Although frankly, I'd just settle for turning it green. . . .
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
You call it pandering, I call it helpful suggestions to the viewing public.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
"rec my shiznit!"
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
by Bloggy on Jun 15, 2011 6:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What's the risk.....
for a rich organization like the Red Sox to take a chance on Kazmir? Maybe it will take him another year or more to get back health-wise to where he was……..Or at least close to it. If he can, he could wind up a steal for the very low investment.
This guy was a top-of-the-rotation starter not so vey long ago. If he can get back to being even a back-end guy, he’d be worth the shot. If not………….no real harm done.
If he can get back to being even a back-end guy…
Eww………
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
saw him here in salt lake.....
he gets lit up in triple-A nearly every time out (though he did have a decent outing a couple weeks ago). Hes done.
Affectionately known on Over the Monster as "Pete"
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by BigBenSportsGuy on Jun 15, 2011 4:49 PM EDT reply actions
You're in Salt Lake?
And you’re a Ute fan….
Sad.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there really a reason to vote 'No' ?
At the end of the season, no one particularly cares if the PawSox win an International League championship, at worst, signing Kazmir can only negatively impact their season, not ours. League minimum won’t ruin our chances of picking up someone at the deadline if we need to.
This guy used to be a terror in the AL East and struck a ton of guys out. If we promote Miller, we’re going to need a new reclamation project anyway. If there is even the slightest of chances that he can become a serviceable pitcher again, why not for the Sox?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I'd prefer if our farm system did well
I’d like to see our guys get a taste of winning early, but more importantly I’m a fan of all our teams. That’s not saying a world series ring is equivalent to an IL championship, but I’d like to see the later happen anyhow.
But in the end
The needs of the farm team are far less important. I would trade a million straight years of Portland Eastern League rings for a single Red Sox championship. And I would make that trade a million times over if a could, dooming Portland to a trillion years of empty efforts.
The way players get promoted, winning is so temporary anyway, a player that propels Portland to the playoffs might very well see the end of the year in Pawtucket and miss it anyway.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
"Sure, the guy's lousy, but it's always possible he'll get his act together" is not a sensible way to run a team
There are reclamation projects that have reasonable upside, and reasonable possibility of success — this has neither. You can’t fill your minor-league rosters with a 200 reclamation projects because a couple of them might pan out. It’s a tremendous waste of resources.
Also, I disagree with your argument that it couldn’t hurt because it only affects Pawtucket. Because when you stick a guy with a 17 ERA in AAA, you’re not only messing up that team, you’re also removing someone else’s opportunity for a promotion. Alex Wilson has a sub-3 ERA in 12 starts in Portland, to go with a 54/19 SO/BB ratio, and a 1.11 WHIP — how about seeing how he does at the next level? Or Stephen Fife, whose numbers are almost as good.
I disagree.
With the wealth of minor league availability that you have, you can always afford to have an influx of talent. Kazmir wouldn’t necessarily be sent to AAA. His AAA numbers are awful this year. He could also be sent to AA, or assigned to a team while not playing for them and learning from a pitching coach how to fix his mechanical issues. There’s minor league lifers in the system (as in any system), and if you’re running a MLB team, it’s much better to let a AAA player go and sign a guy with as much upside as Kazmir. With proper time and coaching, Kazmir could be an ace again. You can’t say that about 95% of the Sox’s minor league pitching.
I have to disagree with you on the reasonable upside issue. Kazmir has got a lot of upside, and much more higher possibility of success than quite a few of our pitching prospects. That’s what the minor leagues are for: a placeholder for guys that aren’t able to play at the Major League level just yet, but will be able to in the future.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Upside -- that's the question
Ultimately, that’s the source of our disagreement. I’ve seen and heard nothing to suggest that Kazmir’s problems are a matter of coaching, or that he has physical problems that just need time to heal. Other than past performance, is there something you’re basing your optimism on?
Also, even if the Angels don’t have the best front office brain trust if there was any realistic possibility that he could be fixed, don’t you think they would hold onto him rather than eat his entire salary?
You raise good points.
My general rule regarding star players that lose their effectiveness is that there’s always a chance that they can return to their former dominance unless the issue at hand is either aging or injury. For that reason, I believe Kazmir can be fixed. Additionally, I read things along the lines of this:
"Sam Miller of the Orange County Register examined Kazmir’s mechanics via some video of his poor Triple-A outings and found that he’s "in completely different positions in each pitch" and his delivery is such a mess that "he finishes off the pitch almost with his back to the batter."
And a few other opinions parroting the same idea. Additionally, with front offices that have really invested in players (as LA did for Kazmir), letting go of the players can be more an action out of frustration than out of actual logic.
I agree that upside is the question. If the Sox’s scouts believe that he can be fixed by their pitching coaches, then there’s no question that he’d be a valuable part of the minor league system and the future. If not, then there really is no reason to go after him.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Sox’s scouts believe that he can be fixed by their pitching coaches…
Wait a minute — I thought we were offering up our weakly-founded opinions on a blog. We’re not supposed to trust the people paid to be right about these things. :)
And thanks for the info about the mechanics issue, I hadn’t seen that.
No problem.
I’m always going to trust a major league team’s judgment over my stupid whims and desires.
Except when they’re wrong.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
There are plenty of pitching spots in Pawtucket.
Have Kazmir be in long relief or piggy back him, most Red Sox starters only go 5 anyway. There are ways to make it work without blocking anyone important.
Kazmir may not have reasonable possibility of success, but his upside is well, the top strikeout pitcher in baseball like he was a few years ago and if there is anyway he can come close to that the payout on the minimal investment would be huge and without any sort of negative impact on the system.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
In all honesty, he might not be a bad bullpen addition if he wanted to come back.
But there are far fewer years separating Kazmir and what he used to be.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I still think Pedro could have second life as a closer.
I don’t really understand why someone hasn’t gambled on this.
he doesn't just want to come back for the sake of coming back
he’ll only come back for the right team (which honestly, sounds like only the Sox from what I’ve heard) paying him well to do it. I think really, he enjoys retirement plenty.
Sure, doesn't bother me
he’s utterly destroyed and isn’t going to rebound, but as long as he doesn’t come to the majors, as far as I’m concerned, him and Millwood can sit in Pawtucket and commiserate about the good ol days.
Would we be on the hook for his salary after this year (if his contract is more than just this year)?
It’s low-risk if he has a medical chance of rehab to pitch this year. Otherwise it’s taking away innings from someone with an actual chance of development.
Only if he wants to be a left handed set up man
Starter? Hell no. IF the Angels didnt want him, the Sox dont want him either.
No
He sucks
We have Kevin Millwood, Andrew Miller, Felix Doubront, other guys.
"Remember, it's not over until the fat lady drops one."
and they dont
Milwood is 36 year old pitcher who had 4-16 with 5 era last year who couldnt make the yankees pitching rotation , and your saying kazmir sucks
Certavi et Vici
by bahston bahmas on Jun 15, 2011 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
He was actually doing quite well the beginning of the season with Baltimore.
But when your team still loses, why even bother.
Millwood has like a 3.77 ERA as a starter in Pawtucket at 36 while the ineffective, only 27 year old pitcher has a 17 ERA with the SLB’s.
Plus, Freddy Garcia and Colon surprised the MFY’s.
"Remember, it's not over until the fat lady drops one."
I think you're thinking of any left-handed Yankees prospect
According to Yankees fans
"Laser show. So relax."
If loving Hot Carl is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 15, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions
It is more of the New York Media and the Yankees PR..
Remember the Sox’s Front Office kind of does the same thing with any prospect that shows some talent.
Kazmir was always about potential..
He was in the Mets farm system when he was traded to the Rays. He still wasn’t ready for the big leagues when he put in the Rays starting rotation. He still needed work. He was and always has been way too wild… I think he led the AL in strikeouts for one year, but he also led the AL in walks, and his WHIP has always been sky high. I think he wasn’t given the DFA boot, because pitching coaches never gave up hope on him. I just think he should had never been a starting pitcher when he was 20.
It took Koufax years of ups and downs to be Sandy Koufax, the gold standard for southpaws, and the only similarity of Koufax and Kazmir is that they both wrecked their arms at an early age.
Buzzy was joking
He was referring to something Sandy Kazmir of DRB once said.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Jun 16, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I had completely forgotten about that.
"Laser show. So relax."
If loving Hot Carl is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 16, 2011 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions
I got that he was kind of joking
because Sandy Koufax wasn’t the greatest pitcher in the game for years, until he blossomed in the 1960s. Much like it took years and a huge amount of patience to developed Randy Johnson, given he was very wild, and he walked a ton of batters when he pitched in the big league.
Most of the time, the pitcher just washes out of the game as Kazmir has done.
Kazmir, on good days was a good pitcher, on most days, he was never should had been a major league starting pitcher. I
by superferret on Jun 16, 2011 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup
That’s the upside.
Screw the MCAT. F*** you, AAMC.
-Me
by frozendesert on Jun 15, 2011 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions
A righty
with fabulous prizes.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
He is going to have to change his mechanics
any hitter is going to see that is a change right out of his hand…
Just put him in Pawtucket
and let him work on his mechanics.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I will sum up this conversation by saying
I would much prefer that the Yankees took a shot on Kazmir.
I would sincerely much rather this:
And I don’t just mean Pedro returning to the team on a regular basis, I mean
Pedro charging out of the stands with a blue button-down on to pitch.
Come to think of it, I’d rather see that than Lackey.
"Laser show. So relax."
If loving Hot Carl is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jun 15, 2011 6:50 PM EDT reply actions
If it was only for one game, I'd forgo a Lester start to see that happen.
DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on Jun 15, 2011 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions
No to Kazmir..
Even though he has caused the Sox plenty of headaches, he is too wild, he is more in the Dontrelle Willis school of pitching.
The team that may take a gamble on him are the MFYs, because they need starting pitching very, very badly.
Kazmir probably needs to go to AAA ball, or find a good pitching coach like Dave Wallace or Dave Righetti to smooth out his mechanics..
The Angels have problems, but one of them isn’t starting pitching, Kazmir is expendable.
He could take the Jose Contreas route, and pitch as a reliever, but Kazmir was always about his potential if he could stop hitting batters, and stop being so wild. Like Willis, he couldn’t find the strike zone..

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