Looking Back on the Gonzalez Trade

by baseball2515 on May 28, 2011 9:31 PM EDT

Obviously everyone was ecstatic when we were able to finally get our man Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres and he has not disappointed so far with a line of .338/.385/.549 with 9 homers and a MLB leading 44 RBI. The acquisition came with a severe price tag however as we gave up three of our top ten prospects in Casey Kelly, Anthony Rizzo, and Reymond Fuentes. It is very early to speculate on this I am aware, but I was skeptical about the Sox deal at the time and as the season has played out I'm becoming more and more skeptical of it despite Gonzalez's successes.

I had no problem with the Sox giving up Casey Kelly for Gonzo as I have never been a big Kelly fan. However, I cringed when I heard that Rizzo was involved in the deal and to be honest don't know if I would have made it for that price. Rizzo's minor league numbers are shockingly similar to Gonzalez's at the same level and at the young age of just 21, Rizzo is absolutely tearing up AAA and might be the best hitter in the minor leagues for any team right now with a line of .370/.448/.728 with 15 HR and 59 RBI in just 45 games. He is already being considered for a promotion to the big club and is close to a sure fire MLB star. Kelly is doing alright in AA with a 3.83 ERA and is still only 21 and Fuentes is hitting .300 in high A at age 20.

I thought this at the time but I really think it now. Would it not have been better for the organization to use the money we gave to Gonzalez to re-sign Beltre or Martinez or even save that money to potentially go after Sabathia after this season. That way, we've still got our future star first baseman, a potential middle of the rotation starter in Kelly, and a potential Ellsbury type player in Fuentes, some of the offense lost by Gonzalez absence would be made up by retaining Beltre or Martinez, and our team would just be overall better positioned for the future. Our minor leagues, while deep, lack top tier talent. Right now, I don't know if there's any talent better right now than Anthony Rizzo and despite Gonzalez's success so far, I think Rizzo may be an even better player in a couple years.

We may look back on this trade in the future like we do the Beckett trade and see it as one that was a success for both teams, but I hate to give up talents like Hanley Ramirez and Rizzo who, as home grown players, get team friendly contract for years of service whereas Gonzalez is paid an enormous contract from the start.

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Its still way too early.

I’m not disagreeing. But it is simply way too early to fully assess the trade.

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by mmmmm on May 28, 2011 9:55 PM EDT reply actions

Gonzo is MLB proven.

I agree that Kelly is nothing special, at least for a top prospect. While I hate giving up Rizzo, Gonzo brings so much more to the table. A mentor for Hispanic players, great D, opposite field hitting, clutch hitting, RBI machine, and much more. I’ll take my chances. When you have the chance to acquire a 28 year old star who is MLB proven, you have to do it. As for Fuentes, I don’t see him being more than a 4th OF.

Theo-trade John Lackey for a used condom and a punch in the nose. Remember, it's all about value.

by LesterJohn on May 28, 2011 10:36 PM EDT reply actions

Another plus for Gonzo

Is that I recall hearing how great his preparation was. From what I understand he studies the upcoming video of upcoming pitchers more than alot of others on the team and prepares exactly how you should prepare. That kind of leadership by example is going to be key with younger players like Kalish, Reddick, Navarro, Iglesias, Saltalamacchia, etc.

I like the trade right now, although Rizzo’s potential is awesome. I hope if he does pan out, we trade for him in 6 or so years.

by The Name is Dalton on May 31, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I like Rizzo too

As a testament to that, I just added him to my fantasy team in preparation for him getting a call up soon. But I understand why it was done. Rizzo has shown a ton of ability in his minor league career, but I don’t think anyone expected this out of him. I was looking at him as a 2012 late season call up, not a 2011 difference maker. But he hasn’t taken a single major league at bat yet, Gonzo has several years of great hitting in his resume, he was ready now to propel this team. I don’t think VMart was the long term answer for us, Beltre might have been but year to year he’s been so variable that it would have been hard to say for sure the investment would have been worth it. Trading for Gonzo in no way makes it difficult for us to acquire premium talent this next off-season though. He does get a raise, but with Ortiz, Cameron, Scoot, Drew and presumably Wheeler leaving the books at the end of the year, we’ve opened up a ton of payroll. I think we can afford to go out and get a major piece if we need it.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on May 28, 2011 11:28 PM EDT reply actions

Rizzo's performance is mostly due to his league

The PCL has long had extremely inflated offensive stats. How inflated? Wily Mo Pena (yes that one) is slashing .365/.443/.723 this year.

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=l_bat&lid=112&sid=l112

There’s almost an entire page of guys with .900+ OPS’s, yet very few of them are top prospects. Rizzo, Lawrie, and Belt are pretty much the only big name prospects, the rest are probably either minor league lifers, guys who topped out as AAAA types in the majors, or journeymen. For many of them the difference is that AAAA types are never able to hit MLB breaking pitches. They can hit fastballs all day long (Wily Mo says hi again) which lets them run rampant in Triple A, but they quickly get exposed in the majors. Coincidentally that is still one of the question marks for Rizzo according to his last SoxProspects.com profile. As late as their June 2010 rankings he was still behind Lars Anderson on the minor league depth chart.

Nobody doubts Rizzo is talented but I would put more stock in his performance in the RS minor league system.

by L33to II on May 29, 2011 12:03 AM EDT reply actions

Note also that he'll have to hit in Petco Park when he gets called up to San Diego

That’s where OPS goes to die.

by RSNexile on May 29, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Example, my friend and yours: Chase Headley

.672 home OPS, .817 away.

I’m telling you guys, put this guy in Fenway and .850-.880 is not out of the question.

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by TheLoneDavid on May 29, 2011 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Dustin Ackley

Ranked higher than any of those three pre-season.

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by Lloyd Christmas on Jun 3, 2011 7:56 AM EDT up reply actions

I don't think this can be compared to the Beckett trade.

As a potential top-shortstop, Hanley’s potential was that of the top franchise player he’s become. For that, we got an ace-quality pitcher in Beckett.

The thing about the Gonzo trade is that he plays the exact same role that Rizzo would, and about as well as anyone possibly can. We’re not going to be looking at a huge hole at 1B in two years’ time and saying “Well, if only…”

What we did was trade a future potential top 1B for a current top 1B. Essentially, we’re trading only affordability in order to have the sure thing and have him earlier.

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by Ben Buchanan on May 29, 2011 1:17 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, and this trade kept us from re-signing Beltre.

Enough said. Also, while Kelly and Fuentes are both nice players, I see Kelly as a #3 at best, and Fuentes as a fringe starter but likely 4th OF and career pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

Theo-trade John Lackey for a used condom and a punch in the nose. Remember, it's all about value.

by LesterJohn on May 29, 2011 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions

The Sox got the Best #3 hitter in MLB

for three unproven prospects, none of which has played an inning in the bigs.

NO matter how good you believe Rizzo or Kelly could be, I highly doubt either will be one of the top 10 players in the MLB. Adrian Gonzalez is tearing up the AL East, not AAA PCL. He is 26 years old and arguably the best 1b playing this season. Sox won this deal, hands down, no contest. I believe even the Padres front office would admit that fact.

Again recap, Sox got one of the top 10 players in MLB for nothing, really just prospects. The Padres got hopes, dreams and speculation from three guys who have never faced MLB pitching.

Further, CC Sabathia is not signing with the Red Sox. Do you really believe the Yankees would let him slip and sign with Boston? Not a chance. Not to mention that the Sox can sign anyone they want even with Gonzales contract. There is no salary cap in the MLB.

I really do not see any logic in your argument, its pure fantasy baseball.

by SoxAcumen on May 29, 2011 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

What exactly is a number 3 hitter?

That doesn’t make fair comparisons to anybody because they have no control over where they hit in the lineup. It’s not like you’re comparing him to other players at the same position.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on May 29, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Nevertheless, anyone who knows anything about baseball understands what "number 3 hitter means"

It’s a label that fits guys like Gonzo but not Saltalamacchia. It’s someone who is guaranteed to produce high OPS and is a good bet for an RBI when the table setters hitting 1 and 2 get on base.

by RSNexile on May 29, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I have a problem with labels.

If you’re the best pitcher on a team, get wins, and are half decent, you’re an “ace”. Crawford hit 3rd for Tampa last year, and I wouldn’t say he’s guaranteed to produce high OPS. I understand that the third hitter is usually one of the best on the team, but are too vague and don’t quantify or qualify much of anything.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on May 30, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions

Well with pitching it doesn’t matter, Cliff Lee isn’t the Phillie’s ace, but he is an ace just about everywhere else. However, batting order I think is different, the definitions change a little, like leadoff is changing from more of a pure speed guy to a guy who sets the table nicely. But 3rd/4th are still widely known as the table clearers. I think hitters have more control over where they play in the lineup than pitchers where they go in the rotation, a pitcher has one role, to pitch, different lineup spots have different roles that not everyone can take. You wouldn’t bat Adrian 9th and you wouldn’t bat Varitek leadoff. But Beckett could be your ace or be your 5th best starter like last season.

Essentially, calling him the best #3 hitter in baseball is calling him the best hitter in baseball.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on May 30, 2011 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions

He's not the best hitter in baseball.

That’s why I started this whole thing, because these label statements are usually off.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on May 30, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

If Bautista allowed discussion, Gonzo would be in it.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on May 30, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

He's not hitting better than Teixera and he's got a ways to go before

he passes Cabrera. We’ll see what’s happened in a few years.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on May 30, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions

he's hitting better than Teixiera this year

and pretty much the same in 2009- on base more with less power. 2010 he didn’t, but essentially he had that shoulder surgery because his injury was robbing his power.

Honestly, if you’re unimpressed with a line of .332/.379/.547, I’m curious as to exactly what you were expecting.

by wolf9309 on May 31, 2011 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions

He's not hitting better than Teixeira this year.

He has 6 more HR and he hits well against LHP and RHP.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on May 31, 2011 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions

yet is on base more and has a higher slugging percentage

sure, he hasn’t been doing great against lefties but he’s been absolutely smattering righties. He’s also got 10 more doubles and a triple on Teix.

by wolf9309 on May 31, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

How the hell did he get a triple?

I must not have watched that game.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on May 31, 2011 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions

It was what I refer to as the Dice-K atrocity

against Tampa Bay. Him and Ortiz both got triples in the same game. I remember well because I was sitting right near third base and thinking that those two hits almost made the game worth it.

by wolf9309 on May 31, 2011 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Why are HR being used to evaluate a player?

by BobZupcic on Jun 1, 2011 10:05 AM EDT up reply actions

because the run is scored automatically

Gonzalez has 10 more 2B and a 3B, which almost equal the 6 HR in number of bases, but somebody then has to drive him in. Park can factor into it, but if all things are equal, a HR is > 2 2B.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jun 1, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions

I completely disagree with that

2 2B = 2 outs not made.

by wolf9309 on Jun 1, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

I'll trade an out for the sure thing.

I guess this is more of an opinion thing. We’ve seen what kind of cold streaks and hot streaks can happen when hitting with RISP. The ability a player has to drive himself in doesn’t have to rely on anybody else.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jun 1, 2011 11:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes, I agree with this.

A homerun is a run, a double is not necessarily a run.

Theo-trade John Lackey for a used condom and a punch in the nose. Remember, it's all about value.

by LesterJohn on Jun 2, 2011 12:21 AM EDT up reply actions

TB

Gonzalez 124 vs Tex 107

by BobZupcic on Jun 1, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Gonzalez also has the BABIP on his side.

Teixera’s line drives are down, so that could be why his BABIP is down. Gonzalez’s line drives are down, but his BABIP is up.

Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jun 1, 2011 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions

He's in the discussion. See Speir's article 10 days ago.

He had him 3rd behind Pujols and….. Bautista? Votto? Cabrerra? I can’t remember.

But, anyway, he’s in the discussion.

by cds7c on May 31, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Cabrera

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on May 31, 2011 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions

There is no salary cap...

but there is a luxury tax, and the Sox Management is kind of sensitive in going over it, mainly because they are not interested in subsidizing KC, Florida’s and Pittsburgh ballclubs..

Btw Adrian turned 29, but he should be hitting at the acme of his career..

by superferret on May 30, 2011 12:42 AM EDT up reply actions

Rizzo has huge upside

But it’s all potential, at the moment. He might (emphasis on “might”) be as good as Adrian Gonzalez in a few years, but Adrian Gonzalez is already as good as Adrian Gonzalez now, and will almost certainly be just as good for the next half-decade. It was a great trade, and the fact that it looks like it’ll be win-win for both sides is an argument for that, not against.

by Tarrsk on May 29, 2011 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

BINGO.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on May 29, 2011 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Hanley

the criticism of the Hanley trade is pure hindsight. When he was trade he was not exactlyt tearing up the minors and was considered raw.

by BobZupcic on May 29, 2011 7:44 PM EDT reply actions

Trades are sometimes

about timing and the current roster. Resigning Beltre would have meant commiting to someone who had a career year, and got 5 years at the age of 32. It is a bad deal. I have second thoughts about Martinez, but he is not close to the hitter Adrian will be.

The Adrian acquisition made sense given his age and his position. The question might be a little tougher if Rizzo played third (since Youk won’t be there 3 years from now) but all in all you are getting a sure thing in exchange for someone who might be good two years from now.

We may very well look back on this deal like the Beckett deal. The Beckett deal was made to acquire a front end starter for a team capable of winning it all. The Adrian deal looks to be something similar. I don’t think these prospects are as good as Hanley and Anabel were – but that may be hindsight.

by flasoxfan on May 30, 2011 12:35 AM EDT reply actions