SB Nation Boston Editor's Pick
Should The Sox Extend Ellsbury.
by Slap Baseball on May 22, 2011 4:53 PM EDT
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A freak injury resulted in a lost 2010 season for Jacoby Ellsbury. To go along with the injury he left the team to rehab in Arizona which only ruined his image even more in the eyes of Red Sox fans. 2011 has been a different story for the former first round pick. Ellsbury has enjoyed a resurgence in 2011 as he has hit for a solid .296 average and compiled 15 stolen bases to go with his 22RBIs. Many fans expected the Sox to let go of Ellsbury after his last year of arbitration in 2012 but maybe fans should start to reconsider.
The main reason I think the Sox should extend Ellsbury is because he is proven. Despite the bad 2010 season, he was a solid player in 2008 and 2009, and looks to be doing even better in 2011. Carl Crawford is prof that no matter how great a player the replacement may be there still is a chance he won't be better then the incumbent. John Lackey is another example of a free agent signing bust. Now, although the Sox are looking to maybe replace Ellsbury with one of their younger prospects like Ryan Kalish or Josh Reddick (depending on which guy plays right for Drew), neither of these players are quite proven enough either. I think the sox should let the 2 prospects battle for J.D Drew's spot while definitely holding on to Ellsbury. By the time Bryce Brentz and Kolbrin Vitek are ready for the majors( 3 or 4 years from now), The Red Sox will have a better look at how to approach their outfield situation.
My Verdict: Extend Ellsbury to a 4 year deal worth 36 million ( 2 years of the deal will cover the remaining arbitration years).
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Ellsbury definitely needs an extension
But baring injury, I think the Sox should do it at the end of the season.
Ellsbury is really shown he is one of the best all-around centerfielders in the game, and Theo could give him a Dustin Pedroia discounted extension.
Contributor To Over The Monster, SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site.
Scott Boras isn't likely to sign a discount contract
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 22, 2011 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Els probably won’t get a huge deal with any other team..
Economically, baseball is hurting. Attendance is way down, except in Philly, MFYs, the Giants and a couple other clubs like the Sox. High revenue teams like the Mets and the Dodgers are complete basket cases, So they can’t be pushing up the price. I just see the team that really wants Els, the Sox, will just bid against themselves as Boras tries to pretend there is a huge market for him.
by superferret on May 23, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I've thought this every year for a while now
and yet somehow. Boras keeps convincing everyone to pay out crazy huge contracts
The teams that drive up Ellsbury’s price
already have center fielders locked down for years, or they are in the Albert Pujols sweepstakes race. Other teams like the Phillies and Mets are probably going to dump a bunch of salaries to carry a lighter payload.
Els’s strength (speed) doesn’t bring in people to the stadium. He is mainly a flare ball hitter, who tends to strike out alot for a table setter.
I hope the Sox can keep Els, mainly because he has been steady, and it is one less problem to worry about.
I just see that the only team bidding the highest for Els would be the Sox, and they probably be bidding against themselves, or Boras trying to push up the price by creating as he does, artificial anxiety and tension.
the Albert Pujols race is in no way related
He’s a FA after this year.
I don’t really think your analysis there is necessarily correct. I see plenty of teams who would be interested in a center fielder, who would be in bidding on him (the Phillies are an example who only have about half their current payroll committed after 2012, but I see plenty of other teams there).
Ells strength doesn’t bring people to the stadiums? Have you been to Fenway and seen the amount of Ellsbury jerseys there are out there? He’s a pretty well beloved player.
It is cost benefits.
The Pujols sweepstakes will effect the entire baseball FA market for 2012.
I wouldn’t go by what player numbers people are wearing. Major League baseball is a pretty unsentimental business, and as much as Els scored some huge brownie points by stealing home against Pettite, Posada and the MFYs, he will go where the team is paying him the most money. Much like Damon was a pretty popular player for the Sox, before he became Judas
I hope the Sox sign him, mainly because he has been steady and a proven MLB player, however I don’t think he is a superstar who should get a huge long term deal or a huge contract. I just don’t see the market for Els as one of the top signings for 2012.. If his OBP was higher, maybe.. but he is a decent to so-so lead off hitter.
I agree he'll go where he gets the most money
but he certainly brings people to games is what I was saying there.
Are there men who wear Ellsbury jersey's?
I saw a couple of women in Ells jersey’s this weekend and I wondered if they even sold them in men’s sizes.
haha a few, not many
I do see a lot of kids wearing them though as well- And I know a couple of little kids that want to be just like him.
Look around baseball
Most teams are carrying players that are massively overpaid. If Ellsbury is healthy and his numbers are decent, he’ll get his money.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 23, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
They are trying to dump those contracts..
Some of the teams that would bid for Els, like the Mets are in serious financial trouble. The Phillies, no matter if they leading in attendance or close to it, probably can’t keep up their payroll in the years to come. Other teams have seen a quarter or more drop in attendance.
I can see maybe the Giants be interested in Els, but they pretty much need a stronger hitter, and Torres their current CF is much like Els, (just a bit older) and they still have Rowland, which was a bad move by Sabean.
I think Els is a good player, but he isn’t going to get much interest from other teams or get teams get into a major bidding war for his services. If he was a better CF, I think there would interest.
One team that may interested in him, just to screw the Sox, and they could afford him, are the MFYs, but they already have Gardener who is almost a Els clone to start with, and he still would be cheaper.
If Els had some power, maybe his value would go up. One can packaged him like Ichiro, but Els doesn’t have a nation following every step he takes, like Ichiro, besides he isn’t Ichiro in the outfield.
Attendance is down
But ratings are up, and more teams are managing to make that of serious benefit to themselves instead of just to FOX and Comcast and all that.
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by Ben Buchanan on May 23, 2011 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
So?
Most teams get set annual income from the TV networks, no matter if the ratings are high or if they dropped. Attendance, besides parking, besides food and drink at the ballpark is where they can make a bunch of money or lose a bunch.
The only teams that benefit from increase ratings are those who own their sport channel like YES, NESN, SNY, while Comcast and Fox Sports keep the increase ad revenue.
Two of the main flagships for MLB are in serious financial trouble, the Dodgers and the Mets. They probably need to be sold, and like the Astros, they will have more debt connected to them after the new owners buy them. It just means they will be out of contention to drive up Free Agent prices, or try to increase payroll, while other teams like the Phillies, Twins will have to slowly lose some payroll..
Baseball should be fine in the long run, but there are some economic problems caused by some serious mismanagement some of the franchises.
and more teams are managing to make that of serious benefit to themselves instead of just to FOX and Comcast and all that.
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by Ben Buchanan on May 23, 2011 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
like Texas..
who signed a huge contract with Fox, or the Astros with Comcast..
Most teams don’t have the money or the investment banks to raise the capital for a regional sports network.
I don't know about being on of the better CFs.
I think he’s middle of the pack.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on May 22, 2011 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Second-third tier, I'd say.
But above average so far this year, definitely.
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by Ben Buchanan on May 23, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions
I think the Sox really need to wait and see where Reddick is at the end of this year.
The entire outfield situation basically revolves around if he’s learned patience or not. If he hasn’t, then Kalish starts the year in right field. If he has, then he starts in right and Kalish is the backup in Pawtucket until Ellsbury leaves.
DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
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Fear the Roar.
With Reddick and Kalish
and to a lesser extent guys like Lin, Hazelbaker, Brentz, and Jacobs in the farm system, the Sox really don’t have to worry about Ellsbury until the situation comes to a head. He’s a nice piece but I’d take Reddick or Kalish’ (projected) bats over his.
I'd certainly take either of their bat's ceilings over his
but I’m not sure either of them are necessarily expected to be a whole lot better than him. Reddick definitely has a floor of much worse than Ells.
I don't know how you're projecting Reddick
But when Ellsbury was Reddick’s age, he was already a major league starter. Reddick has shown little to warrant your confidence in his bat, except for 181 PA this year as a 24-year old in Triple-A. As good as he has been in this small sample, most of the damage he has done has been against right-handed pitching. If he can’t hit minor league lefties, he certainly won’t hit them in the majors.
I’m not an Ellsbury fan. But I’d be shocked if Reddick was as good in the majors.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 22, 2011 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Reddick has never traditionally had trouble with lefties.
And this year (SSS) his only issue is a low-.200’s BABIP. He’s seeing them just fine (8 BB:10 K) and can put a charge into the ball regardless of where it comes from.
We know for damn sure that Reddick can hit the ball very, very far even as thin as he is. The problem has always been hacking. And it’s looking like he’s decided to cut that out and make pitchers either throw him something he can hit, walk him, or hit the corners pretty consistently.
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by Ben Buchanan on May 23, 2011 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
We'll see
The stats for this season are a small sample, and he getting close to being too old for Triple-A.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 23, 2011 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Well, thats the thing
We have time to wait. If this was Ells’ last year of arb then it’d be a different story.
He'll be 24 for the rest of the season, which is a perfectly acceptable age.
And small sample though it may be, he’s already matched last year’s walk total.
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by Ben Buchanan on May 23, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
One of Reddick/Ells/Kalish has to go.
Choice number one is Ells, IMO. Reddick would be my second choice. Kalish shouldn’t be touched. Ells is my first choice because I think teams will overvalue him and his speed. Kalish should start in RF next year, and between Reddick, Lin, Hazelbaker, Hassan, and Brentz (all top-25 prospects in our system according to SP), we should find one guy who sticks. If we keep Ells, that means all of those guys (or all of those guys minus 1 but plus Kalish) are completely blocked. Do you really want to have all of those a and b level prospects blocked, when you can ravage another team’s farm system by giving them Ells.
Another guy we’re forgetting about is Westmoreland. Nothing is guaranteed, but he was once our top overall prospect.
An extension leaves a lot of guys blocked, which is not good in this case. It’s fine when its one of your top 25 (Lars Anderson) because of a longterm deal, but when it’s your entire outfield, which is arguably the deepest position in our farm system, not so much. A guy’s trade value is limited when he can show only minimal PT.
Theo-trade John Lackey for a used condom and a punch in the nose. Remember, it's all about value.
honestly, there's a lot here I disagree with
but the main thing I want to mention is that a reasonable extension (no one is talking about a giant 7-8 year extension) doesn’t block anyone because it wouldn’t be a large enough contract o be prohibitive. If, for example, Pedroia hadn’t performed as expected after his extension, they would have no problem either trading him or just dropping the contract. Blocking only becomes a real issue when we’re talking about giant Gonzalez or Carwford-esque contracts.
I adgree we a surplus of young outfielders
Other then Brentz and Kalish I don’t believe any of the sox prospects are of the caliber of Jacoby Ellsbury. I really believe Ellsbury is a top center fielder. He makes the Sox lineup more dynamic. With his presence on 1st base he shakes up a ton of pitchers and makes the lineup more potent.
I believe that if someone is proven they should be the priority rather then an unproven prospect. The game speed is very different between triple-A and the majors. Ask Dominic Brown of the Phillies. I don’t know if anyone is aware of the kind of monster numbers Brandon Wood put up in the minors before he was a Major League Failure. Tons of prospects look great, no one should assume that all of those prospects the sox have playing in the farm system will necessarily be as productive as Ellsbury.
I’d stay away from a long term investment for as long as possible with Ellsbury. He may be proven, but not well proven. He has very very few plate appearances with this new plate approach. If he sticks to it he may approach the value you list but he still needs defense work, which is why I don’t think he’ll ever exceed that value.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
If he learned to play to his strengths then I'd agree with you
but his tendency to not be patient and hit flyballs is discouragning
That may be true
But 70 SB’s doesn’t stick out to you? Ellsbury’s talent is far behind the awful Brett Gardner. I wouldn’t complain if Ellsbury continues to bat .300, score 90 runs, and steal 70 bases, numbers close to what he did the last time he played a full season. He gets on base far more often then a guy like Brett Gardner and I really believe he has potential to knock out a solid number of homeruns (maybe 12-15). If this is the case Ellsbury starts to appear more like an il-equipt defensive version of Carl Crawford. The key thing is that Ellsbury fits well in Boston so why fix something that isn’t broke? If we continue to win with Ellsbury up top I would prefer to keep it that way.
by Slap Baseball on May 23, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Brett Gardner's career OBP is higher than Ellsbury's
Just saying
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by Ben Buchanan on May 23, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
And he's very good defensively
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 24, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
but doesn't play CF
For all we know, Ells could be like a Carl Crawford and thrive in LF.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on May 24, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He does play CF
He moved to LF when the MFY acquired Granderson. Gardner’s defense in CF was very good by most metrics. And in LF last year, Gardner was a 6.2 WAR player.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 24, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions
If he's so good, then why doesn't Granderson play LF.
And I’m not sure I buy WAR anymore. It values UZR a lot and there’s some fishy stuff with that. Soriano had a 5.1 FLD that went into his WAR and he was one of the worst defensive corner OFs in the game.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on May 24, 2011 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't UZR the metric that says Ellsbury is bad in CF?
Just playing devil’s advocate here… I’ve certainly seen a lot of his Skylab routes out there, but if we’re questioning WAR since UZR plays a big role, and UZR is what downgrades Ellsbury’s defense… do we question that at all?
UZR has Ellsbury for his career as about an average center fielder
just a tiny tick below. He takes bad routes and frequently makes up for them by being very fast. Mostly the people who always going on about how he’s a terrible center fielder are overreacting to the opinion that he’s a great center fielder based on web gems and diving catches.
I think he's merely average.
I don’t base that on the numbers, I use the good ole eye test. My favorite phrase to describe it boils down to this, how many times do you see JD Drew having to dive? Now how many times does Ellsbury have to dive? Now consider the difference in speed between them. That’s my issue with Ellsbury, with his speed he should never have a webgem unless it’s him robbing a HR at the wall. Otherwise if he had the instincts he would catch much more instride.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I don't care about it downgrading or upgrading Ells.
I know what his value is and I’m sure the FO does too. They originally put Cameron in CF last year and he was about 37 or 38 years old. I question WAR in general, not just for certain players.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on May 25, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I adgree we have a surplus of young outfielders
That’s an error right there my bad.
even with the correction you still misspelled "agree"
Theo-trade John Lackey for a used condom and a punch in the nose. Remember, it's all about value.
Unless Ellsbury hits for more sustained power he's Juan Pierre.
Would you extend Juan Pierre?
to be clear
he would be essentially 2003-2007 Juan Pierre, who was a useful player. So yes, I would gladly extend a 28-year-old version of Juan Pierre’s useful period for a few years. No one will recommend giving him Crawford-esque money or years, and people saying they would extend him doesn’t make Boras agreeing to an extension that isn’t Crawford-esque more likely.
He's Crawford lite and plays a "premium positon" albeit not well,
so we should see some sort of contract based off of Crawford’s contract.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on May 23, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Hopefully not with the RS
Let some other team overpay for a speed guy who doesn’t use his speed very well
The Red Sox won't pay him.
They know his defense is sub-par in a defensive first position.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on May 23, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Karma for Damon
was Crisp breaking his finger in 2006, and he was never the same hitter at the plate since. If Crisp could hit, and he was coming into his prime when the Sox got him, he probably be still in a Sox uniform. If anyone who should had gotten a gold glove in 2007, it was Crisp.
I recently watched some archived games from 07 via MLB.tv
Crisp was unbelievable in CF. Huge contributor to the team
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on May 23, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions
+2
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on May 23, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
And doing reasonably well again this season too.
It is a shame we didn’t see the best Coco Crisp, much like a certain Mike Cameron has failed to deliver on his potential here in Boston too.
Okay, that’s not fair… Crisp did a lot more for the team than Cameron has done.
Game 5 of the 2008 ALCS...
He should get something from Boston or some tribute for his clutch performance…
Yes, but......
Either they make the call/offer now, or Ellsbury/Boras will likely test FA at the end of 2012. These value deals usually buy out more than one year of arb, offering the player huge security and a lifetime of riches in most cases. If the Sox wait until after the 2012 season, assumng Ellsbury continues to put up solid numbers, the Sox will not be getting any “discount” since he will be so close to FA.
I would be very pleased to see the Sox lock up Ellsbury for a few years; a good leadoff hitter is difficult to find, as we know after the departure of Damon and the Coco Crisp experiment in 2006-2007.
Disagree here
I’m not sure that Ells is such a “good” leadoff hitter. He’s o.k. but not ideal. He’s not really the type of player that you want to tie up a lot of money in and as has been stated – the team has younger/cheaper options that could well produce at Ellsbury’s level in 2012. I’d go one more year on him and then see what happens.
Yes, that is a valid option
but many thought Damon would be easily replaced also, and it took Ellsbury coming along to replace him two years later. Sure, Ellsbury may not be “ideal”, but what ideal leadoff hitter will replace him in 2013? This is the “bird in the hand” argument. Ellsbury’s lost 2010 season messed up the equation in some ways; if he had healthy, solid year the Sox may have offered a mutully beneficial multi-year deal when they were getting close to the arb deadline.
In reality, we all know that Ellsbury will test FA at this point in all likelyhood and when that happens, there is less than a 50/50 chance he comes back to the Sox.
Looking at the data that we have on him
He’s an average defensive CF at best (and likely below average due to poor reads)
He gets on base at about a 0.340 clip – hardly a top-notch “leadoff” value
so basically the 2 things that you want out of the position, he’s at average. Could he improve? sure he could, but we are talking about a 28 year old at seasons end – so we are pretty much in his peak. If he improves in various areas during this season – then great – look at an extension possiblity. If he does not – then you can get average replacement on the cheap and its time to let Kalish/Reddick give CF a try
I dont know if they should
I tend to say yes, he is valuable. However, there is no doubt in my mind the Red Sox will extend Jacoby. I would go to Vegas and bet it, thats how confident Theo will extend him.
Nooooooo... Let him play out the string, try to earn his next contract...
and let him walk.
There is no more upside, this is as good as it gets. .300/.340 ….and no power. Or, .215/.250 with power. He can’t do both.
8 HR’s this year, as the over/under. He’s got 4 already. I don’t think he’ll get 4 more. He’s not Grady Sizemore, he’s Fukodome.
Put Kalish in RF for two years then let him take over.
PutKalishReddick in RF for two years then let him take over.
Fixed
DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on May 23, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Well ideally
but if I had to choose one or the other right now I’d go Reddick.
DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.
by TheLoneDavid on May 23, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I would be cautious about Kemp..
He is kind of a hothead, and has clashed in the Dodger clubhouse. I don’t know if he do well in another pressure cooker environment like Boston.
Maybe it would calm him down
To know that his next paycheck would be in the mail instead of relying on Frank McCourt and his money management skills.
by The Name is Dalton on May 23, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
UBR
is out
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ultimate-base-running-ubr/
Ellsbury, known for his speed, does not score all that well in base running
He gets a positive number, though.
And SB/CS are not part of the equation.
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by Ben Buchanan on May 24, 2011 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions
What is is SB/CS rate this year? Seems like he's been caught a lot this season...
Now, I realize this is a SSS, but still… if I did my math right:
15 SB, 6 CS in 2011 for 21 total attempts, and a CS rate of 29%. Not good.
Career, including 2011 is 151/30 in 181 attempts for a CS rate of 17%.
(Remove this year, and it’s 136/24 in 160 attempts for a CS rate of 15%.)
What is up with all kinds of guys (Pedroia/Youk with abnormal K rates) performing outside of their career numbers, and what happens when they all put it together?
(And, wow… as slow as he is, Gonzalez is leading the team in RUNS and RBIs… interesting.)
that's because
unless this has changed, he’s also leading the league in hits. Get on base a lot, you’ll score a lot!
For a second, I thought you meant Ellsbury.
Yes, I realize Adrian is scoring despite his speed due to being on base (especially in front of Youk and Big Papi…)
Is there anymore info on this?
The link’s description is a little vague and it seems to be another gimmick like UZR.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on May 24, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Ellsbury somewhat of an enigma
As we can see by the range of feeling here, it is very difficult to make a call on Ellsbury at this time, largely due to the lost 2010 season. He appears to be a good CF, but many say he is average or below average. He hits around .300 for his career, pretty good, but we want higher OBP for a leadoff hitter. Ellsbury has some pop in his bat, but does he have too “big” of swing and is he selective enough for a leadoff hitter?
For me, I see a solid big league ballplayer, with proven ability to play and perform on the biggest stage in the game. I’ll take this bird in the hand over the hope that Reddick/Kalish will be better. Sure, they will be cheaper, but this is Boston, not Pittsburgh.
Extend or not? I say extend, but I don’t think that will happen. Ellsbury, while a nice player, is not a “game changer” type of player. He is not the type of player the Sox management, or most fans will look at as a must keep, so the Sox are likely to play the value game here. I feel the Sox will be content to let Ellbury play and contribute in 2011 and 2012 and let him test FA.
The Sox will know a lot more in 2012. They will know if Kalish, Reddick or both are ML ready talent or not. They will know what players, perhaps a nice right-handed hitting OF are available in FA. In a perfect scenario, Kalish/Reddick take over and do well in RF in 2012, one of them moves over to CF in 2012 and the Sox sign a right-handed hitter for RF. Of course that leaves open the question of who hits leadoff, which brings us back to exending Ellsbury. See the enigma here?
I just don't think its going to be easy to extend Ells
Boras will do a good job selling him as an elite centerfielder (which he’s not).
Yeah the combination of Boras not liking to extend
and the fact that the Sox appear to have so many potential CF prospects that may be ready relatively soon means that they’ll almost certainly finish arbitration with Ells, and then see what the outfield situation is and pursue him as a free agent if necessary. Frankly, I have trouble imagining that someone else won’t overpay for him.
Els is still the best athlete on the field.
Though Crawford is right up there with him.
LF is locked up for the foreseeable future. We have to strongly consider that CF and RF will need to be filled over the next couple of years and right now the Sox have one possibly ML ready player in Reddick, Kalish is still rehabbing his shoulder which could be a significant obstacle and Westmoreland might return to form, though experience should warn that brain trauma, and surgery is controlled trauma always leaves some deficit, maybe minimal, but some. How good was Ryan? How god will he be at 98%? 80%? Which leaves guys who are a few years off.
So , ride Reddick in RF right now, and see where it leads the team, he has had a decent bat since coming up which makes him the hot bat in right. However there is the Loyalty thing for Francona.
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