Over the Monster, Outside the Box: Alex Avila

by TheLoneDavid on May 17, 2011 2:20 PM EDT

There's been a lot of talk here about Jarrod Saltalamacchia and the Red Sox need for a new catcher. I've been leading the charge with my call for Cubs all-star catcher Geovany Soto, although calls for Miguel Montero, Russel Martin, and David Ross have also been heard between last offseason and now. Allow me to bring up one last name that could be had: Detroit Tigers catcher Alex Avila.

Avila didn't exactly impress in 2010, putting up a slash line of .228/.318/.340, good for a .297 wOBA. We could probably get similar production from Salty this year. However in his two years in the minors Avila did much better, posting wOBAs of .356 and .371 in single A and AA respectively. This year seems to correspond with those numbers as opposed to 2010, with Avila posting a .367 wOBA so far. Last year he sat around a 21% LD percentage but had a 24.1 K%.

Defense is a difficult issue for catchers, although I can say from an eye test that Avila blocks the plate well, and many professional scouts call him "solid" defensively. Last year he threw out 20 of 63 potential base stealers, although with the Sox current mindset we should assume that those numbers go down.

Many of us here at OTM are prepared to go into a "wait and see" mode with Salty, but it should be noted that the Tigers have some serious needs of their own for 2011. Brandon Inge and Magglio Ordonez are not performing, and it should behoove the Sox to take advantage of this fact while several of their own prospects still have value. Jose Iglesias and Ryan Kalish are not performing up to expectations, while Josh Reddick seems to have learned patience and Yamaico Navarro was killing the ball before going on the DL. Perhaps now is the time to sweep in and make some things happen in Detroit by sending one of our highly touted but underperforming prospects to Michigan in exchange for Avila.

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I like the thought a lot

I like Avila. But It would almost certainly have to something that would help their 2011 chances, right? My guess is for their good defensive catcher who is hitting well and is only in his second year of service time, they’d be looking for something closer to Lowrie than to Kalish, as Lowrie could obviously take over for Inge- and I’m fairly sure we could all agree that’s probably a no-no.

Maybe Navarro would interest them, but he has little enough major league experience that I’m sure more would have to be involved in the deal

by wolf9309 on May 17, 2011 3:25 PM EDT reply actions

My thoughts were closer to this:

Ryan Kalish + Jose Iglesias + Alex Wilson >>>> Alex Avila + Andy Oliver/Drew Smyly/Dan Schlereth/Casey Crosby

The Detroit lefthanders look to be Felix Doubront types except for Schlereth who is a good lefthanded reliever. My top choice here is Oliver, who has good stuff but could use a change of scenery after being mishandled by the Tigers. Oliver looks to me like the Detroit version of Alex Wilson, a reliever who is being stubbornly forced into a starters role by the Sox. With Lowrie and Navarro playing as well as they have been Iglesias is expendable and his defense should come in handy between Sizemore and Peralta, even if he does need a little seasoning time before coming up to the majors. Kalish can step in right away for Mags and provide an upgrade both with the bat and in Comerica’s big outfield.

DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.

by TheLoneDavid on May 17, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions

there's no timetable yet

but it doesn’t sound like Kalish is going to be ready to play again for quite some time- I’m not sure if his value is going to be all that high by the time the trade deadline comes around. Reddick might be more reasonable and probably has more trade value at this point.

by wolf9309 on May 17, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

That's why I included Wilson with Kalish

If you do Reddick, considering his progress this year you could probably swing Reddick+Iglesias >>>> Avila + Oliver

DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.

by TheLoneDavid on May 17, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

won't happen his Dad works for the Tigers

"The Red Sox suck, and I am the dirt that was sucked in, I am a dirty"

by gizmosandy on May 17, 2011 6:43 PM EDT reply actions

Won't happen for other reasons too

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on May 18, 2011 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions

"Iglesias and Kalish aren't performing up to expectations"

Disagree. First of all, Kalish is hurt, so I wouldn’t want him to rush back just so he can tear up AAA. Iglesias’s bat is definitely a project, but he shouldn’t be with the big club. His hands through the zone are excellent, and I think there is sill a good chance for him. He only has like 6 ABs with the Sox, and while he is 0fer, I don’t think that he necessarily has looked horrible. I don’t think he should be traded. Period

Theo-trade John Lackey for a used condom and a punch in the nose. Remember, it's all about value.

by LesterJohn on May 18, 2011 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

Even not with the big club

Iglesias’ bat is underwhelming. I’m not at all on board with the idea that he should have started in Pawtucket either. Age advancement is one thing, but if you haven’t learned how to hit AA hitting what can you possibly hope tp prove in AAA? They should send him back a couple levels to work on things.

I don’t particularly care how legendary his defense is, if his bat is posting less than a .650 OPS yearly, I don’t want him near our starting lineup. If he can show that, great, I’d be happy to see Jed switch to 3B where he would be better defensively and Youk move to DH full time after we say, sign Papi to a two year deal. But between Navarro, Lowrie and Youk, our future on the left side of the IF is much sunnier than our future at C, you have to give to get and a catcher might be the biggest need we’ll have for years.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on May 18, 2011 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Guillen, Ozzie

posted some pretty nice seasons of value (2.0 – 3.5) while hovering in that 0.600-0.650 OPS range back in the late 80s. That’s probably what Jose would bring and that’s not that bad at cheap cost, as long as the other positions are not offensive holes. I think the mind set of the league is changing and you will start to see the return of the field-first SS.

by BobZupcic on May 18, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Here is Guillen's fangraphs page

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1005125&position=SS

Looking at his 1986-1990 years

by BobZupcic on May 18, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

It's more about working the system

2.0-3.5 WAR wouldn’t be particularly hard for a decent hitting, sure fielding SS to attain. Vizquel’s 97, 02, 04, 05 show me that. I think Navarro can provide that as a starter. When it comes to trade value, currently Jose is the ‘sexier’ option, we could get more for him while we have another player who could provide the same value on the field.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on May 18, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

And if Navarro is still hitting like he has this first month...

We’re talking Tulo-esque performance.

DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.

by TheLoneDavid on May 18, 2011 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Iglesias

will most likely end up somewhere between

Ozzie Guillen and Omar Vizquel

which means he’ll have a decent, longish career. His glove will ensure that he has a major league job regardless especially in the changing landscape of the game

in other words – he has very good value

by BobZupcic on May 18, 2011 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Which, essentially, is what we're going to have to give up...

… if we want something of value back: ie. our biggest hole at C filled for more than just this season.

I mean, does anyone think Salty is coming around? He had another passed ball with Bard on the mound the other night, not to mention failing to catch any of four stealing Orioles. If teams are starting to run at will on us, I know we don’t hold runners on well… but it’s going to start to be a real issue if our catcher isn’t throwing ANY of them out.

by AlohaSox on May 18, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions

that was a wild pitch, right?

I’m pretty sure it was, but maybe I’m wrong.

Salty is throwing out 24% of runners right now. It’s not ideal but it’s not that terrible. Tek is a bigger problem with just 13%.

In general, I’m fine with using Salty half time to see how he does, I do think his defense looks a lot better than it did at the beginning of April. Tek is the one I have no faith in. I think we do need someone that can actually catch half the games, as I don’t want to trust Salty past that unless he gets really hot.

by wolf9309 on May 18, 2011 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Another lefty

Anyways, Detriot already have a guy that could replace Ordonez, Andy Dirks.

As for Inge though, idk.

Avila is alright, definitely good at catching base stealers but I’m not so sure he’s that great batting yet.

I don’t want to give up Kalish because…who will replace JD Drew? Iglesias, he isn’t supposed to be in the majors anyhow and he hasn’t been in triple A very long so I wouldn’t say he isn’t performing to expectations.

As for Reddick, yea go ahead but I doubt they want him. I want to keep Navarro though…

"Remember, it's not over until the fat lady drops one."
Also, Salty sucks

by n0va on May 18, 2011 4:23 PM EDT reply actions

Right now after the first month of the 2011 season, watchign Reddick's performance so far

I keep Josh over Ryan. Kalish has a lower floor, but Reddick’s ceiling is really high, and if he’s learned how to take a walk then he’s a better player than Kalish.

DFA Rev Halofan
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Fear the Roar.

by TheLoneDavid on May 18, 2011 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions