A little early but...

by DirtySouthSox on Apr 20, 2011 2:20 AM EDT

I know that the season is still very new, but I was just remembering having heard some trade rumors from the offseason between the Red Sox and the Diamondbacks involving Justin Upton. I also am reading "Moneyball" right now, which reminded me that an important part of the 2002 season of the Oakland A's were trades for Ray Durham and Ted Lilly, deals that helped the A's sky rocket in the standings. Maybe a deal could help the in-need Red Sox...

I think that Upton is a player the Red Sox could definitely use, a young right handed right fielder. Somebody with a ton of power who could perhaps take Ortiz's spot in the lineup someday. I can dream all day long about him lodging the ball over the monster. If this trade were at all possible, assuming that the Red Sox make a run at him during the trade deadline or in the coming offseason, who would the Sox be able to offer the D-Backs? Now keep in mind that this is not at all real, I just like pretending that I am GM of my favorite team, and I bet all of you do, too. So just give me your opinions.

My thinking would probably be a young group of prospects. Maybe even a package like this: OF Jacoby Ellsbury, SS Jose Iglesias, 1B Lars Anderson, and maybe a pitcher like Doubront or Drake Britton. The reason behind my thinking is the following: after signing AGone for seven more years, they can afford to give up Anderson, who is hitting well so far this year in AAA, so his stock is up. I have always been a fan of Jed Lowrie, even though he has been a tid bit injury prone, but I think he has come a long way and he deserves to be there at short for now. Iglesias is a great prospect and will be a good major leaguer. I have been against trading young talented shortstops ever since the Hanley Ramirez trade, but I think the Sox have other options long term in up-and-comers like Navarro or Tejeda, that is if they can't stick with Lowrie. Ellsbury is expendable, I am one of those Sox fans in love with Ryan Kalish. The tricky part about a trade like this would be that the Sox' farm system right now is not superbly stocked with pitchers. Actually, it isn't particularly well-stocked at all. Ranaudo and Pimentel are the cream of the crop in terms of pitchers, but the can not let them go right now. Doubront has MLB experience and is young and talented enough to attract other teams' attention.

I'd really like everyone's opinion about it, and please let me know if I'm being ignorant about it or naive when it comes to trades and all that. Just keep in mind that this is imagination. So, in order to make a deal for Upton, what would the Red Sox be required to give up?

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Who would play right?

This is not that realistic as an in-season trade. If they made your deal, Upton would push Drew out of the lineup and they would have to call up Kalish now. The platoon of Drew and Cameron is working well enough that acquiring someone like Upton is just wishful thinking. Plus, any trade by Theo at this point needs to leave young pitchers out of it. Doubront is slated for this team for the next two years in a big way, whether it’s the lefty out of the bullpen or as a 5th starter. Whatever happens with him, they need young, cost-controlled hurlers to offset how many veterans are making bug dough in the current rotation and to supplant Wake and Dice moving forward. If Boston makes and in-season trade, look for them to snag a catcher or a short contract pitcher. And if we get lucky, an OF with pop who can play center off the bench. And, if they are smart and they deal from a position of strength, they will make only Lars, middle infield and corner outfielders available to trade from the minor leagues.

by magicbosox on Apr 20, 2011 9:52 AM EDT reply actions

Upton is perfectly capable of playing Center

he moved because Chris Young is really good.

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation

by TheLoneDavid on Apr 20, 2011 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions

So would you play Kalish or Upton in CF in 2012?

I assume you mean we could go with Upton in 2011 if we made this as an in-season trade.

by AlohaSox on Apr 21, 2011 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I haven't a clue

I suppose you’d play Upton in center for 2011 and see how it works out. If he can handle it then Kalish shifts to right, and if he can’t Kalish is in center.

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation

by TheLoneDavid on Apr 21, 2011 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Word is that Arizona was looking for Buchholz or the package that brought over Gonzalez, more-or-less.

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by Ben Buchanan on Apr 20, 2011 10:18 AM EDT reply actions

I'd probably have done some variation of the A-Gonz package

Maybe slightly less, but if Upton was really available, I am all for emptying the farm for him.

by Sologub on Apr 20, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Would...

Kalish, Tejada/Anderson/Navarro and Britton/Pimentel qualify, plus introducing prospect Juan Carlos Linares in Eric Patterson role?

"Laser show. So relax."

by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 20, 2011 11:53 AM EDT up reply actions

To clarify:

Although I have well-documented issues with labeling Linares a prospect, he’s in every conceivable way superior to Patterson.

"Laser show. So relax."

by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 20, 2011 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

that is wayyy less than Kelly/Rizzo/Fuentes

by wolf9309 on Apr 20, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

This is true...

"Laser show. So relax."

by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 20, 2011 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Not even close.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Apr 20, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions

You asked, so here's my opinion:

I’m not overly high on Upton. Seems a little unproven and his contract, while relatively team friendly, is still more money to add to the payroll. I would love to see Ellsbury gone, but I doubt it would happen. IMO, the D-Backs wouldn’t want to trade him unless they got way more than market value. So, I think it would take either Ells-Ranaudo-Vitek-Weiland or Kalish-Pimentel-Tejeda-Younginer. All in all, 1 elite prospect, 1 pretty good prospect, and 2 B-level prospects.

It’s just not worth it, IMO. I don’t see Upton being overly spectacular. The team has Reddick and Lin, and while they don’t seem great, I think they could be above average. The Sox blew 142 mil on Crawford, and because we’re not MFY, we simply can’t have big contracts at every position.

Dear Theo, please trade Crawford, Salty, Lackey, and Jacoby for nothing.
Anyone stupid enough to take those contracts can have them.

by LesterJohn on Apr 20, 2011 2:05 PM EDT reply actions

Also not buying the Upton-hype

for either of them. My being sold on Ellsbury continuing to evolve as an offensive force and excellent defender may disqualify my opinion in your eyes, but IMO we don’t need anymore tinkering in the OF or IF. With the core of Youk, PD, Gonzo, CC, Lowrie, Ells it’s time to gamble on the high upsides of Kalish, Reddick, Lin, Linares, Iglesias, Navarro, Tejada, etc. I agree we are not nor should we strive to be the MFY. Same for pitching & catching. And right behind these guys, down in A ball, some more stars are developing. It’s time to stop buying and start promoting. I, personally, don’t want the Sox to buy championships with mercenaries. So, for me no Uptons.

by GerryT on Apr 22, 2011 3:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree with that last part.

Aside from feeling happy about locking up two great players for seven years, I was really unhappy to see that the Sox were going to pay Carl Crawford so much money. I never thought that he deserved so much, and his slow start isn’t changing my opinion at all for right now.

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Apr 20, 2011 5:26 PM EDT reply actions

I mean, Upton would be a nice middle ground,

but our payroll is gonna be huge next year. Upton’s salary (I believe around 8-9 Mil, correct me if I’m wrong) is less than Drew’s, and we have Cameron and Pap’s money coming off the board, but we’re adding about 23 mil with the Gonzo/Buch extensions. I would trade for Upton if we could include Ells in the deal and not give away Ranaudo or deplete the farm.

But I’m just afraid that there would be almost no room for additions, we would just have to hope that a combo of Crawford-Kalish-Upton-Lowrie-Iglesias-Pedroia-Gonzalez-Salty-Youk turns out to be a formidable offense. We would likely not have the pieces to upgrade any of those positions through trade. It is risky to have a lot of longterm deals with young guys, because we would be stuck with whatever production they give us.

Dear Theo, please trade Crawford, Salty, Lackey, and Jacoby for nothing.
Anyone stupid enough to take those contracts can have them.

by LesterJohn on Apr 20, 2011 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions

To follow up,

Right now, the only positions where we can afford a change are RF, C, CF, and SS. We can’t get rid of Crawford, Youk, Gonzalez, Pedroia, or Ortiz. I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, in most cases it’s good, but it also means that we are stuck with whatever production we get from them. The more deals like those we have, the less flexibility we have.

Dear Theo, please trade Crawford, Salty, Lackey, and Jacoby for nothing.
Anyone stupid enough to take those contracts can have them.

by LesterJohn on Apr 20, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions

If the Red Sox are willing to go up to their typical $170-180 million area

That should leave them nearly $50 million to spend replacing Ortiz, Drew, Papelbon, and the bench.

I figure Kalish at RF, about $20 million on replacements on the bench/bullpen, maybe $10 million to bring back Ortiz or find a good fill-in at DH. That leaves $20 million more to solve any extra problems that pop up, or to make a big upgrade in a spot like catcher.

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by Ben Buchanan on Apr 20, 2011 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't sign a DH

Sign a 3B. Maybe someone like Aramis Ramirez on a Beltre-esque deal (1/10). Then you can do a few things in 2013:

Move Youk back to 3B for one last hurrah.

Bring up Iglesias and move Lowrie

Trade for Chase Headley.

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation

by TheLoneDavid on Apr 20, 2011 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Headley?

The next Mark Bellhorn?

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Apr 20, 2011 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

I agree with this.

I have a ton of respect for Ortiz given how many clutch hits he gave us and helped bring a couple rings. But I would rather see them bring in a position player and let Youk spell the new 3B and Gonzo at 1B at times. Youk is great in the field, but it might help keep his aging body in top condition and give us very good defense when you need to sit those other guys.

I don’t think bringing back (bringing in) a player who cannot play in the field at all is a good idea. Does Ortiz even own a glove? (Joking, I’m sure he keeps one around in case)

by The Name is Dalton on Apr 21, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions

To clarify

I meant using Youk as the everyday DH.

by The Name is Dalton on Apr 21, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions

Actually, when we play interleague games...

Big Papi has flashed decent leather at 1B. Nothing spectacular, but a lot better than you would expect out of a full time DH, I think.

Interesting thought… in 2011, we’re definitely not sitting Adrian Gonzalez and putting Big Papi at 1B in interleague games. So Big Papi doesn’t start (but is a nice pinchhitter to bring in for a key situation) in any interleague games this year?

by AlohaSox on Apr 21, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions

That might be when we schedule Adrian some rest days.

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation

by TheLoneDavid on Apr 21, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

in actual dollars

Gonzalez will only be getting about $9 million more next year than this year- his salary this year is $6.3 million and he got a $6 million signing bonus this year. Buchholz is only making $3.5 million next year. So the raises the two of them get are about equal to Papi’s salary coming off the books. Lester gets about another $2 million and Pedroia gets about another $2.5 million. Crawford’s salary (including his signing bonus) actually goes down by $.5 next year.
so the total in raises is $16.2 plus whatever arb costs.

Then in addition, we have $7.5 from Cam, somewhere between $3 million-$6 million from Scutaro, $14 million from Drew, $2 million from Tek, $12.5 million from Papi, $12 million from Papelbon, and $2 million from Wake all coming off the books.
so obviously, some of that needs to be replaced with money, but if we can fill just a few of those holes from within, that is a total of:
somewhere between $53-56 million coming off the books, depending on what happens with Scutaro. So assuming payroll doesn’t lower, they have quite some significant money to spend.

by wolf9309 on Apr 20, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

and not

those aren’t luxury tax dollars, that’s actual salaries- no one is sure what will actually happen to the luxury tax after this season, so not too much point in examining it too deeply yet for our purposes.

by wolf9309 on Apr 20, 2011 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions

forget about Upton,

let’s trade for their catcher.

Man this team...they suck bad.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Apr 20, 2011 7:03 PM EDT reply actions

yes, very much so.

by wolf9309 on Apr 20, 2011 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed.

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation

by TheLoneDavid on Apr 20, 2011 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I do think

that J.D. Drew’s replacement needs to be right handed. It only makes sense to me, and pretty much all of the outfield prospects that are close to being ready are lefties. I really do like Kalish and Reddick, though. But as we’ve seen thus far this season, you CAN have too many lefties in a lineup.

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Apr 20, 2011 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions

it works fine as long as

we have a right-handed hitter added somewhere. That could be DH, 3B, or RF, depending on what the team decides to go with. Or even C.

Also, despite all the fears, this team has actually not hitt terribly against lefties. so far.

by wolf9309 on Apr 20, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions

In the minors Kalish hits LHP better than RHP, IIRC.

So if our lefties hit lefties better (Ells, Kalish), then we shouldn’t have too many lefties.

Man this team...they suck bad.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Apr 20, 2011 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions

With Lowrie in the line up...

… that too many LHHs seems to be less of an issue.

by AlohaSox on Apr 21, 2011 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions

So far the Sox are hitting lefties

better than righties, including Papi and Lowrie. Gonzo and Ells traditionally hit lefties very well, and so does Kalish. As long as a couple of good righties are available off the bench, the Sox lineup is fine vs even tough lefties. That, by the way is one more argument to valuing Ells and ignoring the vapid talking heads who have been Attacking him relentlessly for nearly two years, even as his OBP, power, CF skills and baseball smarts steadily improve. I’m surprised to read so much fantasy style bashing on this site

by GerryT on Apr 22, 2011 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions

ok well how about this???

CF Jacoby Ellsbury
RHP Clay Buchholz
SS Jose Iglesias
1B Lars Anderson

to the Arizona Diamondbacks for

OF Justin Upton
C Miguel Montero

Would that be giving up to little for too much or too much for too little. Unlike a lot of people who have posted here, I’m not entirely sold on Montero. In my opinion he’s just a SLIGHT upgrade over Salty…

The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble

by DirtySouthSox on Apr 22, 2011 12:38 AM EDT reply actions

Much too much too much!

by GerryT on Apr 22, 2011 3:52 AM EDT up reply actions

Way too much!

I mean, Clay has had a rough start to the season and may have overperformed his peripherals in 2010. However, I’m not seeing the second coming of Dice K’s 2008 from Clay.

I think he’ll be a very solid #2 guy behind Lester for years to come (15-18 Ws, high 3’s ERA, and some better luck than he’s having so far in 2011). His hard luck start this season is probably long overdue, considering the ridiculous numbers he got away with last year. However, I do expect this to even out shortly.

by AlohaSox on Apr 22, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions

I say HELL YEAH to that, IF

we can substitute Buchholz with maybe Britton and Doubront or Pimentel and Doubront. That is an absolute rip off for the D-backs based off of what they wanted earlier for Upton. If you look at what we’re giving up, that’s almost what it would’ve taken to get Upton based off of what the D-backs said this winter. Plus, you add in Montero, which solves our catching problem. I can sorta see why you’re not sold on him because he hasn’t played many full seasons. His 08 and 09 were good from an offensive standpoint, and I think he might have been hurt last year. A .765 and .832 OPS in 08 and 09 is much better than anything Salt has ever done.

If you break it down, the trade looks good for both sides.
Ellsbury: isn’t that great and we would get Upton to play RF or CF

Buch/ 2 of our prospects: It would hurt to lose the prospects, but we would still have Ranaudo and one of Britton or Pimentel (which ever one didn’t get traded with Doubront)

Iglesias: If we have Lowrie and Iglesias, then we don’t need both of the for SS. It would be nice to have Lowrie slide to 3rd when Youk is done, but we’re solving a catcher problem, so it’s not as important. Although, I don’t know why they would want Iglesias when they have Stephen Drew.

Lars: we’re not really relying on him to do anything for us, so I’m more than fine with giving him up.

Man this team...they suck bad.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Apr 22, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions