FanPost

Games Started Analysis: 08-10

This primarily comes from discussion on whether or not Dice-K is or has been inconsistent as a starter, but I figured it might be interesting to look at all of the Red Sox starters and their starts. 

I've chosen to analyze all starts over the past three seasons 2008-2010 using Bill James "Gamescore". For those unfamiliar with Gamescore for starters, basically points are given for various stats accrued during a particular start. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score

Typical starts will range from about 30 - 80 with exceptional starts in the 90s or even negatives, however you look at the word "exceptional". A score over 100 is extremely rare while a score of 50 is typically a "quality start" level.

The highest possible score is 114 for a 9 inning affair. Kerry Wood's May 6, 1998 game is the highest in history for a 9 inning game with a 105. Scores can go into the negative's with Mike Oquist posting a -21 in an August 3, 1998 game.

Below is a table showing 6 Red Sox starters (including Wakefield) from 2008-2010. Starts are separated into categories of 10's with a game right on the 10 (ex: 40) going into the higher category. 

GS

100+

100-90

90-80

80-70

70-60

60-50

50-40

40-30

30-20

20-10

10-0*

+40

+50

+60

+70

+80

Lester, Jon

97

0

1

8

17

21

18

13

13

2

3

1

 

80%

67%

48%

27%

9%

Matsuzaka, Daisuke

65

0

0

2

9

10

14

16

8

3

3

0

78%

54%

32%

17%

3%

Beckett, Josh

74

0

0

3

12

13

17

12

6

6

4

1

77%

61%

38%

20%

4%

Buchholz, Clay

58

0

0

1

7

15

12

8

2

10

3

0

74%

60%

40%

14%

2%

Wakefield, Tim

70

0

0

2

7

12

15

14

9

5

5

1

71%

51%

30%

13%

3%

Lackey, John

84

0

0

4

12

17

16

14

12

4

4

1

75%

58%

39%

19%

5%

I would rate the sections the following way

100+ - Extremely Exceptional (very rare)

100-90 - Exceptional (Buchholz's No-hitter in 07 was a 93)

90-80 - Outstanding

80-70 - Very Good

70-60 - Solid

60-50 - Average/Decent

40-50 - Meh/Average

30-40 - Poor

20-30 - Very Poor

10-20 - Sh*t the Bed

0-10 (plus negatives) - Really Sh*t the Bed

Now for the Rates

+40

+50

+60

+70

+80

Lester, Jon

80%

67%

48%

27%

9%

Matsuzaka, Daisuke

78%

54%

32%

17%

3%

Beckett, Josh

77%

61%

38%

20%

4%

Buchholz, Clay

74%

60%

40%

14%

2%

Wakefield, Tim

71%

51%

30%

13%

3%

Lackey, John

75%

58%

39%

19%

5%

Comments

Since this came about due to discussion over Dice-K, I'll primarily comment on his starts. Depending on how you rate a decent start Dice comes in at either 78% (40+) or 54% (50+). This goes a long way in showing that Dice is pretty average but also goes a long way in showing that he's fairly consistently average. His 17% 70+ is on par with everyone but Lester. Lester, obviously has been the best starter across the board. Lackey/Beckett are eerily similar as we also knew. Clay's Poor starts of course come primarily from 08/09 seasons and he gets the pass for youthful growing pains. What may be surprising is that Dice has really only STB 6 times in his 65 starts (~10%) 

Let the comments commence!

NOTE: I do want to clarify that there is a decent amount of discrepancy within a single category here but I wanted to chunk them out in some easy to see format. For example just using two of Dice's 2010 starts. The 40-50 category is probably the category where this is most in effect at least in terms of rating performances as "decent/poor"

May 27 - 4.2-2-3-3-8-1 L scores a 41

Jun 2 - 6.2-10-3-3-0-7 W scores a 49

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