This primarily comes from discussion on whether or not Dice-K is or has been inconsistent as a starter, but I figured it might be interesting to look at all of the Red Sox starters and their starts.
I've chosen to analyze all starts over the past three seasons 2008-2010 using Bill James "Gamescore". For those unfamiliar with Gamescore for starters, basically points are given for various stats accrued during a particular start.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score
Typical starts will range from about 30 - 80 with exceptional starts in the 90s or even negatives, however you look at the word "exceptional". A score over 100 is extremely rare while a score of 50 is typically a "quality start" level.
The highest possible score is 114 for a 9 inning affair. Kerry Wood's May 6, 1998 game is the highest in history for a 9 inning game with a 105. Scores can go into the negative's with Mike Oquist posting a -21 in an August 3, 1998 game.
Below is a table showing 6 Red Sox starters (including Wakefield) from 2008-2010. Starts are separated into categories of 10's with a game right on the 10 (ex: 40) going into the higher category.
|
GS |
100+ |
100-90 |
90-80 |
80-70 |
70-60 |
60-50 |
50-40 |
40-30 |
30-20 |
20-10 |
10-0* |
+40 |
+50 |
+60 |
+70 |
+80 |
||
|
Lester, Jon |
97 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
17 |
21 |
18 |
13 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
80% |
67% |
48% |
27% |
9% |
|
Matsuzaka, Daisuke |
65 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
10 |
14 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
78% |
54% |
32% |
17% |
3% |
|
|
Beckett, Josh |
74 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
12 |
13 |
17 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
77% |
61% |
38% |
20% |
4% |
|
|
Buchholz, Clay |
58 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
15 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
74% |
60% |
40% |
14% |
2% |
|
|
Wakefield, Tim |
70 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
12 |
15 |
14 |
9 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
71% |
51% |
30% |
13% |
3% |
|
|
Lackey, John |
84 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
12 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
75% |
58% |
39% |
19% |
5% |
I would rate the sections the following way
100+ - Extremely Exceptional (very rare)
100-90 - Exceptional (Buchholz's No-hitter in 07 was a 93)
90-80 - Outstanding
80-70 - Very Good
70-60 - Solid
60-50 - Average/Decent
40-50 - Meh/Average
30-40 - Poor
20-30 - Very Poor
10-20 - Sh*t the Bed
0-10 (plus negatives) - Really Sh*t the Bed
Now for the Rates
|
+40 |
+50 |
+60 |
+70 |
+80 |
|
|
Lester, Jon |
80% |
67% |
48% |
27% |
9% |
|
Matsuzaka, Daisuke |
78% |
54% |
32% |
17% |
3% |
|
Beckett, Josh |
77% |
61% |
38% |
20% |
4% |
|
Buchholz, Clay |
74% |
60% |
40% |
14% |
2% |
|
Wakefield, Tim |
71% |
51% |
30% |
13% |
3% |
|
Lackey, John |
75% |
58% |
39% |
19% |
5% |
Comments:
Since this came about due to discussion over Dice-K, I'll primarily comment on his starts. Depending on how you rate a decent start Dice comes in at either 78% (40+) or 54% (50+). This goes a long way in showing that Dice is pretty average but also goes a long way in showing that he's fairly consistently average. His 17% 70+ is on par with everyone but Lester. Lester, obviously has been the best starter across the board. Lackey/Beckett are eerily similar as we also knew. Clay's Poor starts of course come primarily from 08/09 seasons and he gets the pass for youthful growing pains. What may be surprising is that Dice has really only STB 6 times in his 65 starts (~10%)
Let the comments commence!
NOTE: I do want to clarify that there is a decent amount of discrepancy within a single category here but I wanted to chunk them out in some easy to see format. For example just using two of Dice's 2010 starts. The 40-50 category is probably the category where this is most in effect at least in terms of rating performances as "decent/poor"
May 27 - 4.2-2-3-3-8-1 L scores a 41
Jun 2 - 6.2-10-3-3-0-7 W scores a 49
There are 19 Comments. Load Now.
Shortcuts to mastering the comment thread. Use wisely.
C - Next Comment
X - Mark as Read
R - Reply
Z - Mark Read & Next
Shift + C - Previous
Shift + A - Mark All Read
Comment Settings
Live comment alert: Hide it!
Comments for this post are closed.