Games Started Analysis: 08-10
by BobZupcic on Apr 18, 2011 10:04 PM EDT
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PrintThis primarily comes from discussion on whether or not Dice-K is or has been inconsistent as a starter, but I figured it might be interesting to look at all of the Red Sox starters and their starts.
I've chosen to analyze all starts over the past three seasons 2008-2010 using Bill James "Gamescore". For those unfamiliar with Gamescore for starters, basically points are given for various stats accrued during a particular start.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_score
Typical starts will range from about 30 - 80 with exceptional starts in the 90s or even negatives, however you look at the word "exceptional". A score over 100 is extremely rare while a score of 50 is typically a "quality start" level.
The highest possible score is 114 for a 9 inning affair. Kerry Wood's May 6, 1998 game is the highest in history for a 9 inning game with a 105. Scores can go into the negative's with Mike Oquist posting a -21 in an August 3, 1998 game.
Below is a table showing 6 Red Sox starters (including Wakefield) from 2008-2010. Starts are separated into categories of 10's with a game right on the 10 (ex: 40) going into the higher category.
|
GS |
100+ |
100-90 |
90-80 |
80-70 |
70-60 |
60-50 |
50-40 |
40-30 |
30-20 |
20-10 |
10-0* |
+40 |
+50 |
+60 |
+70 |
+80 |
||
|
Lester, Jon |
97 |
0 |
1 |
8 |
17 |
21 |
18 |
13 |
13 |
2 |
3 |
1 |
|
80% |
67% |
48% |
27% |
9% |
|
Matsuzaka, Daisuke |
65 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
9 |
10 |
14 |
16 |
8 |
3 |
3 |
0 |
78% |
54% |
32% |
17% |
3% |
|
|
Beckett, Josh |
74 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
12 |
13 |
17 |
12 |
6 |
6 |
4 |
1 |
77% |
61% |
38% |
20% |
4% |
|
|
Buchholz, Clay |
58 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
15 |
12 |
8 |
2 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
74% |
60% |
40% |
14% |
2% |
|
|
Wakefield, Tim |
70 |
0 |
0 |
2 |
7 |
12 |
15 |
14 |
9 |
5 |
5 |
1 |
71% |
51% |
30% |
13% |
3% |
|
|
Lackey, John |
84 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
12 |
17 |
16 |
14 |
12 |
4 |
4 |
1 |
75% |
58% |
39% |
19% |
5% |
I would rate the sections the following way
100+ - Extremely Exceptional (very rare)
100-90 - Exceptional (Buchholz's No-hitter in 07 was a 93)
90-80 - Outstanding
80-70 - Very Good
70-60 - Solid
60-50 - Average/Decent
40-50 - Meh/Average
30-40 - Poor
20-30 - Very Poor
10-20 - Sh*t the Bed
0-10 (plus negatives) - Really Sh*t the Bed
Now for the Rates
|
+40 |
+50 |
+60 |
+70 |
+80 |
|
|
Lester, Jon |
80% |
67% |
48% |
27% |
9% |
|
Matsuzaka, Daisuke |
78% |
54% |
32% |
17% |
3% |
|
Beckett, Josh |
77% |
61% |
38% |
20% |
4% |
|
Buchholz, Clay |
74% |
60% |
40% |
14% |
2% |
|
Wakefield, Tim |
71% |
51% |
30% |
13% |
3% |
|
Lackey, John |
75% |
58% |
39% |
19% |
5% |
Comments:
Since this came about due to discussion over Dice-K, I'll primarily comment on his starts. Depending on how you rate a decent start Dice comes in at either 78% (40+) or 54% (50+). This goes a long way in showing that Dice is pretty average but also goes a long way in showing that he's fairly consistently average. His 17% 70+ is on par with everyone but Lester. Lester, obviously has been the best starter across the board. Lackey/Beckett are eerily similar as we also knew. Clay's Poor starts of course come primarily from 08/09 seasons and he gets the pass for youthful growing pains. What may be surprising is that Dice has really only STB 6 times in his 65 starts (~10%)
Let the comments commence!
NOTE: I do want to clarify that there is a decent amount of discrepancy within a single category here but I wanted to chunk them out in some easy to see format. For example just using two of Dice's 2010 starts. The 40-50 category is probably the category where this is most in effect at least in terms of rating performances as "decent/poor"
May 27 - 4.2-2-3-3-8-1 L scores a 41
Jun 2 - 6.2-10-3-3-0-7 W scores a 49
19 comments
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4 recs |
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Comments
This is the sort of analysis I can get behind!
78% of the starts are in the “winnable” range.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I like it,
BUT it made me think less of Clay Buccholz, then I realized he scored a 93 on a no hitter…
The rhythm is the bass and the bass is the treble
That was outside the range Bob counted here.
I had to look at that twice to figure out why he didn’t have a 90-100 range score, but this was from 2008 – 2010, and the no hitter was in 2007.
Great piece, Bob.
I read it (finally) because of the recs it was getting, and added my own.
For all the Dice K haters out there, it does show some interesting evidence that he’s not as bad as perceived. Doesn’t make him any more watchable…
Just for fun… what did Dice K’s third start score, and where does Beckett’s start from last night finish up?
Awesome work, BZ.
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Thanks for another good one!
It’s impossible to control for, so it goes unsaid how the particulars of the ‘08-’10 seasons would influence their results, the most significant one being a dramatically weakened defense, offense and bullpen in injured 2010. Other variables influence performances as well, though accounting for them seems impossible:
1. Lester, evolved into the Ace over this time frame, with slow starts every April. He is better now than in 2008 and should be better again in 2012.
2. Daisuke, injured in ‘09 during the WBC, and on the DL 3x? in ’10. In this time frame, only 2008 represents what Daisuke CAN do, (and SHOULD do), as shown in his last two outings. Even as he wound up our 3rd best pitcher in 2010, his year was essentially a wash and who knows where his #’s would be without the injuries.
3. Beckett, injured in ‘09 and ’10, particularly back and shoulder issues. 2010 was simply a wash. I wonder if 2007, 08, ’09 is a better representation of his true talent?
4. Buchholz. We watched his career stumble, get traction and move forward to 2010. While we can say his best year was influenced by luck, he was also playing in front of an essentially AAA team for much of the year, so he was remarkably successful. He is better than an average which includes a shaky, developmental ’08 and ’09.
5. Wake, faced role changes and a handful of catchers, which renders his consistently average performance as a bonus.
6. Lackey had a remarkably short adjustment period to the ALE, city, team etc. but it dropped his #’s. Despite the performance issues of the 2010 Red Sox, Lackey is a good pitcher who is best represented by including his Angels #’s from ’08 and ’09 as you did.
I have a greater respect for this everyone on this staff ,and its potential, than I did a few minutes ago. Thanks.
Well said.
Two points I want to call more attention to here: as lucky as Clay was in 2010, you would have to expect a regression to the mean… except that the defense behind him last year wasn’t the best. So… more HRs allowed? (Check… so far in 2011… in a bad way). Sure. However, I think the better defense might help minimize that regression as we get deeper into the season.
Wakefield and his catcher issues… I made the joke the other night that Salty’s inning with Jenks (wild pitch not blocked, and Abreu scoring from second on a passed ball) reminded me of those innings when Tek used to catch Wake for an inning or two in the Mirabelli seasons (like, as a pinch hitter, or something that stayed in the game).
However, as much as Wake’s back has bothered him, is there anything to the idea of a variety of catchers not giving him the same amount of faith in where he can throw his knuckleball? I mean, it’s an obscure pitch, so it’s kind of hard to compare to other pitches or pitchers. Is there any chance that part of Wake’s struggles are related, not to CERA mind you, but to his fear that the knuckleball he’s throwing gets away from the catcher (Tek, Salty, Cash, V-Mart… whomever)? Would he be throwing it differently with someone like Mirabelli (not advocating pulling him out of retirement) back there, with a different comfort level?
Seems to me that the knuckle ball is the sort you 'throw' rather than 'place'.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I agree... but do any of us really know?
I mean, it’s a very small set of pitchers that ever use it effectively. It cannot simply be a question of “throwing” it… there must be some level of reliable repetition involved.
So, I wonder… does the catcher behind the plate have any impact?
The knuckleball has always seemed like an almost heroic sort of pitch to me, not sure I’d want to ruin that connotation for myself by looking it up. One of the last of a dying breed sort of thing, I want to believe that full control of it lies with the cowboy-esque pitcher, and when I mean control, even he has no idea where it’s going to go but with a Han Solo confidence, knows it’s going to work anyway.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
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