The fifth starter possibility?
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 11, 2011 1:01 AM EDT
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PrintI know that this FanPost may not make sense to some, and it may be out of left field. I've kind of had this opinion for a while now, and I've yet to get it down on paper/laptop screen. If anyone has heard some of my comments so far on threads, I'm clearly not Daisuke's biggest fan. The news and rumor mills over spring training had a lot of rumors debating the possibility of a Daisuke trade, and I'm just wondering if Matsuzaka is really our fifth best starting pitcher. It's not just a bias anymore, but in my opinion a blatant waste of money. Sure, he could go out tomorrow and pitch a gem and win in a hell of a way. I, however, think that this team should have shopped him harder over the spring. At the very least there should have been a competition for the #5 spot between Wakefield, Dice, Aceves(preferred in the pen), and Doubront (still not ready for him yet). All four of these pitchers have proven strengths and weaknesses, and at the end of the day I would think that Wakefield, above all others, should have the #5 spot. Before you crucify me, let me explain.
Yes, Wake had a very, very, very bad year last year. No, his "stuff" did not change. We're not seeing his 70 mph Fastball changing at all, and the knuckler still dances all over the place when the time is right. What I'm saying is a pitcher with a 4.37 career ERA, a devastating knuckler (when it's on) and an innings eater seems to be what Wake guarantees. I also would make the argument that an average of 6/7 innings per start from Wake, with limited walks and around four runs, would be preferable to one eight inning start from Dice-K, with 0-2 runs, followed by three starts where he fails to get out of the fourth or fifth inning and gets pounded. Also, Wake has 193 wins, and 179 with the Sox. Clemens and Young had 192 while they were here. I would rather shout and curse at a bad Wake start that would give the old man a chance to get that last fourteen, than watch Dice-KK run up a 3-2 count on every batter 1-9.
I also think money would be key in this decision. If Dice was shopped and traded, or is traded, then money would clearly be saved. Daisuke has a salary of 10.3 million in 2011, and IMO that money could be used towards a solid righty bench bat, or yet another BP arm. Wake's 2011 salary for comparison is two million. What happened to wake from his All Star campaign, to last year, seems to be more than an injury. His back did seem to give him trouble, but if he is over it and given consistency he could be very serviceable. With consistency, and a shot at the rotation, I think there's no doubt he can bring 180-200 innings, 9-15 wins, and an ERA hovering 4. With Aceves in the bullpen (where he belongs) and Daisuke in the NL somewhere, this team could support Wake as he rides off in the sunset. I'd really prefer that than having to watch Matsuzaka walk five guys per start. The two pitchers are really comparable in their career stats, even with Matsuzaka's moster (lucky) 2008 18-3 campaign.
The Numbah's
Some of Wake's career #'s : 4.37 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 172 IP averaged (deflated from BP years), 36 GP per season (slightly inflated from BP years), K/BB 1.78**
Some of Dices's career #'s : 4.19 ERA (heavily helped by 08), 1.40 WHIP, 144 IP (there's the killer....), 25 GP per season K/BB 1.94**
**I'd trade K's for IP and some cash in pocket.
All numbers came from ESPN's stat trackers and screwed a bit because of this years stats (so I averaged out the GP per season and IP myself) Might be slightly off but they're close enough to explain my point.
Once again, this is just my opinion. I know that people will call Daisuke the best #5 starter in baseball, but I really don't see what he provides that is eight million more than what Wake provides. I also don't think there's a single Red Sox fan out there that openly supports Matsuzaka over Wakefield. I think that what is true for Wake is true for Dice. One bad season (last year, Wake) does not a career make, and neither does one good season(08, Dice-K). At this point we have to stick with it, but I would like to see what Red Sox Nation's opinion on this is. First fanpost, something I wanted to get off the chest, go easy on me!
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Also, Openly....
Ranaudo ‘13/’14, campaign starts here.
I’m guessing # 5 in 2012 will be Doubront or Miller if he comes through.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 11, 2011 1:14 AM EDT reply actions
I honestly wouldn't be surprised if Ranaudo is a September call-up next year.
I see something similar to Clay’s progression although I expect Ranaudo to be in high-A ball very soon.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Apr 11, 2011 3:35 AM EDT up reply actions
If we make a replacement at number 5
I want to sign Pedro to be that number 5. I don’t have ANY faith in Wake, whereas my faith is just shaky in Dice. Pedro would be nice as a commodity to have for this season. Going forward that 5 spot will belong to Drake Britton, or Felix Doubront.
Every Red Sox loss, I like to blame on the Yankees. Every Yankees win, I like to blame the Rays.
I would love that idea too.
Pedro proved he still has some juice in the tank, and that would be a great deadline pickup. I think subtracting Dice and getting a righty bat and Pedro would be solid.
I still have a lot of faith in Wake… although I may be the only one.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 11, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions
I want Pedro to take over as our closer...
This year, and as long as that arm still has a little life left. I think he could be every bit as good as Eckersley was at the end of his career, and Eck was never nearly the starter that Pedro was.
So why not do it?
As for Wake or Dice… anyone change their mind after yesterday’s outing?
I've been on the Doubront train for a while.
I think giving the kid, or Wake, the fifth spot is worth a shot.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 12, 2011 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Dice-K is better than Wake
Wakefield hasn’t posted a FIP under 4.50 since 2003. In contrast, Matsuzaka hasn’t posted a FIP higher than 4.23 when healthy (in 2009, he was hurt and only made 12 starts).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
Yes this
also, at Wake’s age, he is almost guaranteed to get injured again if we try to get him to start every fifth day for the rest of the year.
Also, if you traded Dice-K you wouldn’t be finding someone who would be willing to take on his whole salary, because he’s not worth what he makes. And where would the righty bat that you want to get play?
Just a righty bench bat for the splits
probably another outfielder, or a ty wigginton/martin prado level of versatility.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 11, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions
The Sox already have three righties on the bench
Cameron and McDonald are OF. And Lowrie, a switch-hitter, in the IF. As long as the Sox are healthy, they don’t need another bat off the bench.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Apr 11, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
What do you expect the Sox to get?
They wouldnt save that much money because they would have to pay the majority of Dice-K’s salary to make a trade. He wouldnt bring all that much talent in return either. Then the team will also lose the revenue that Dice-K brings in from his celebrity.
I like Wake alot but I think his role with the team is perfect right now. He will be an innings eater when games are out of hand, brings a big change in pitches when he comes in to relieve, and is the 6th starter whenever there is an eventual injury.
Isn't it kind of odd
That Wake has changed at all? I mean I don’t understand the knuckleball too much (just from reading Ball Four) but at the point when he became a fulltime knuckler, you’d think you’d see essentially random results from him, since it seems the pitch doesn’t really depend on physical ability, just grip and luck.
Well...
The knuckler is one of those random pitches. The thing is, it’s so random that it’s hard for results to differ. Wake doesn’t know where some of his knucklers are going, so it’s impossible for hitters to all of a sudden know. If Wake doesn’t have a mechanical breakdown or injury, or the weather isn’t all loopy, then he’ll have very reliable results.
I don’t get why one bad season by Wake made him completely unreliable now?
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 11, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
One bad season?
Here are Wake’s ERA/FIP/xFIP for each year since 2004:
2004 – 4.87 ERA/5.08 FIP/4.95 xFIP
2005 – 4.15 ERA/4.75 FIP/4.53 xFIP
2006 – 4.63 ERA/4.93 FIP/5.20 xFIP
2007 – 4.76 ERA/4.67 FIP/4.89 xFIP
2008 – 4.13 ERA/4.84 FIP/5.04 xFIP
2009 – 4.58 ERA4.58 FIP/5.42 xFIP
2010 – 5.34 ERA/4.52 FIP/4.70 xFIP
While Wake was a bit unlucky last year, he was very lucky in his two good years since 2004: 2005 and 2008. His K-rates have been declining. The last time Wake had a K/9 over 7.00 was 2003 and the last time his K-rate was over 6.00 K/9 was 2005.
While I love Wake, he is no longer viable as anything but a spot-starter. He has back problems that make it hard for him to field his position, and he is now a below league-average starter. That’s what makes him an unreliable rotation option.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Apr 11, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I do wonder, however,
if FIP may well be a less effective measure of a pitcher who is primarily pitching a knuckleball. It’s hard to tell since there are so few of them, but it wouldn’t surprise me.
Well, very small sample
but looking at RA Dickey these next few years may tall us a bit.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 11, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we give the pitchers say 30 innings before we start trading them for scrap?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Apr 11, 2011 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I never said this was based on his first start.
This was based off what I believe should have been an offseason move.
Gotta read the whole thing, mate!
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 11, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I read the whole thing
It’s still not viable. You want to improve? Fine. It won’t be through Wakefield who went out and pitched some very uninspiring innings as well tonight. His recent starts aren’t particularly better than Dice-Ks and are those too are boosted due to some of them being in the bullpen rather as a starter.
Wakefield isn’t the innings eater anymore. There is a reason that Wake was sent to the bullpen instead of Dice, it’s because as far as starters go, Dice is better. He hiccups and he might be hard to watch, but more often than not he gets results.
Theo doesn’t give a crap if his style annoys the fans, he knows he’s got a pitcher who in the long run wins more often than he loses, and at the back of the rotation that’s all you can ask for. Wake is a downgrade, pure and simple.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Regardless of who is better,
the sox made a mistake by not shipping Dice, no matter the price. There’s plenty more they could find out there for a fifth starter. Daisuke is just not as advertised from 08
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 12, 2011 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
It matters who is better
Dice-K > Wake. Also, Matsuzaka won’t be easy to move because of money and the fact that he has a no-trade caluse.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Apr 12, 2011 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
How long should we wait to get rid of Dice K?
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 11, 2011 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions
At this point?
If we can get something at the deadline for him and not take on all of the salary, then I would pull the trigger. If not? I don’t see any reason why we should keep him in the rotation next year over Doubront or anyone else more deserving. I think Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and even Lackey has provided good value, while Daisuke has done nothing since 04 (except the 3 or 4 starts last year worth remembering)
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 11, 2011 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
he was lucky in 08
Beckett blows, but Lackey blows more.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Apr 11, 2011 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
This team is 2-8
Crawford, Cameron, Youk, Ortiz, Tek, Salty, Ellsbury, Scutaro, Youk, Lackey, Bard, Wheeler, Buchholz, and Dice are all performing at unacceptable levels. I’m not going to single any of them out while they’re all so miserable. If we want Dice to go after such a tiny sample size, then by the same property we should demand the release or trade of the rest of these guys for not performing. I don’t see anyone stepping up to take that offer. We know what Dice is, this is Dice, this isn’t a new terrible Dice, this is the Dice that is going to throw a couple crap games and follow them up with a gem. Sure it isn’t a consistent result, but over the course of the season, it’s a more positive one than a negative one.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
It's not a small sample size anymore
The fact of the matter is Dice-K has been disappointing us since he got here, the vast majority of the fans in Boston hate his guts and want him to be gone.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 11, 2011 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right, he's never been good in MLB.
But why are we talking about getting rid of him now? I feel like this is an overreaction because you just watch him get blown up. I have no problem with losing him in a way that would improve the team. If we can’t be sure a move will improve the team, then I’m hesitant about it. If we could have made a move to improve the 5th starter position, I think that move would have been made in the last few years. Everybody knew what they’re getting from him. If he’s the best option for the team, then I’ll sit through his “pitching”. And if he’s not good enough and we have to rely on the 5th spot, then we have serious issues elsewhere.
Beckett blows, but Lackey blows more.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Apr 12, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not reacting to this start
Hand to Bob, I didn’t even watch the start, because I know what to expect from him, and I don’t want to watch it. That’s my biggest problem with him, he makes baseball not fun for me, and I’m not the only one who feels that way. Dice-K is an adequate baseball player, I’m not disputing that, but I can’t watch him pitch. Even worse is that I don’t think he’s trying. Watching him in the WBC, he looks like the Japanese Cy Young, but when he comes out here he spontaneously turns into Barry Zito, a player who is okay, but really nothing special.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Am I dissappointed we didn't get an ace?
Absolutely. But he hasn’t been an ace since the moment he stepped off the plane, we just have more and more evidence that he’s a mediocre pitcher. And I’m fine with that as our fifth best starter. The fans should too, but most fans don’t know anything, they feed on whatever crap Boston sports radio is tossing to them and they’re saying he’s a terrible starter, but if we can get somewhere between a 4 and a 4.5 ERA out of him as FIP and xFIP suggest we could, I’d be grateful, if this offense is running as it should that’s all we’ll need.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I can be satisfied with a 4-4.5 ERA
What I can’t deal with is paying so much money to someone who is essentially Derek Lowe again. Dude’s a total headcase without the talent to back it up. I can’t stand watching him take the mound, and I specifically avoid watching his starts on television. Something’s gone wrong when a teams fans actively avoid watching these games.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
and 10 million
is way too much for a 5th starter, no matter how it’s put. I’m not okay with a 5 year 50 million contract and a 50 million dollar posting fee for an underperforming slouch. A 4 ERA would be great, but he’s not going to deliver that over a full healthy season with his BB rate.
A teams fans should not have to OPENLY dislike a player making 10 million, and have the team not even sniff at the idea of a ST positional battle. There clearly should have been a battle between Dice, Wake, Aceves, and Doubront (if he hadn’t been injured). I’d rather see Doubront go out there and give it a shot as a #5 than root against Dice.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 12, 2011 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions
And also, 5th starter means NOTHING
It’s a pitcher’s place in the rotation. It’s completely relative to your own team. $10M can be the perfect amount for a 5th starter depending on what team you’re talking about.. In a rotation of say Halladay, Lester, CC, King Felix and Lincecum, do you mind paying your 5th starter $10M? Nope. In a rotation of Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Joba Chamberlin, Jamie Moyer and Oliver Perez, do you mind paying your 5th starter $10M? Absolutely.
That is how meaningless the term 5th starter is. Mike Cameron is a bench OF getting paid almost as much as Dice too. Right now, this team can afford it now and they’re set up to be able to afford it through the end of the contract.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I don't understand why everyone is so concerned about salary
It’s not like it’s our money, and so long as there’s been no indication that an exorbitant salary is handicapping the team, which there really hasn’t been, who cares how much a player is paid? It shouldn’t matter if we were paying Eric Patterson 15 million if it isn’t impacting the product on the field.
True dat
Things are looking especially good for next year in terms of salary with Ortiz, Papelbon and Drew all coming off the books presumably. I wouldn’t mind if they picked up Scoot’s option entirely and possibly re-signed Crawford if there are still questions in the outfield.
But the amount of salary we’re going to drop compared to the raises (and Gonzo’s extension) is staggering. Hell, we could go and sign Pujols to DH for the next 10 years.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
As much as I like the guy, I don't want the Sox to pick up Scutaro's option.
Tito is really frustrating me now by not giving Lowrie a shot to prove himself as the SS of the future, and if Scutaro is around next year I expect more of the same. Let him go, and let Lowrie do his Troy Tulowitzki impression.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I say that under the assumption that Jedi steals the show and is the starter, and entrenched by the end of the year, with Scoot staying on to occupy the util role. Also makes sense if we don’t go out and trade for some solid defensive 3B hitting in a pitchers park you keep bringing up, Lowrie could be seeing some reps at 3B, and I don’t trust Iglesias enough to say he’ll be the starter in 2012 like some are.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I don't think Iglesias will be the starter either
But that just gives us more motivation to go get a third baseman, even if only for the short term. Lowrie can play short, with Navarro providing the same role as Scutaro next year. I just feel like Tito’s gotten it into his head that Lowrie isn’t a good baseball player, despite all evidence to the contrary.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I assume you are considering re-signing Cameron?
I’m pretty confident Crawford’s going to be around Boston for a while…
Yeah that's what I mean.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Ground: hindsight is 20/20
Yeah looking back at it he wasnt worth the posting fee or the contract. But that is easy to say now. The Red Sox werent the only ones after him and the Sox had to post 50 mill in order to get him because other teams (yes plural) posted in the 40 million+ area.
The Sox took a chance on a player that would automatically bring in additional revenue and also put the team on the map in another area (Japan). He had ace potential and the Sox paid for that chance to have an ace that brings in that type of money. He didnt live up to it.
I just dont understand stating the obvious about his contract after 3+ years of service. Were you saying this when they signed him, or after his 1st start, or after watching him dominate the WBC? I doubt it.
The mets were second place with a bid of 39 million
I understand why they did what they did, but at this point they should have already realized that they made a mistake and work on grooming a real #5 starter.
Since the start of 2010, 157 big league pitchers have made at least 15 starts. Of those, Matsuzaka has made quality starts in just 37 percent of his outings, a mark that ranks 141st among those 157 pitchers.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 13, 2011 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions
This^
TLD has a good point. When has anyone REALLY supported Daisuke? He’s never been astonishing, and as I said in the article; I’ve wanted him gone long before spring training.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 12, 2011 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I hadn't looked up his stats since he had a .724 OPS a couple games ago
It’s probably better now. Funny what giving a guy a couple games can do to his numbers this early…
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
No!
Now go to your room!
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 12, 2011 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Bloated Salary, Bloated ERA Just Plain Bloated
Dice-K is done. Horrible 2010 season Horrible Spring, Just Horrible. GIVE SOMEONE ELSE A CHANCE! WE CANNOT WIN THE AL EAST WITH THIS PITCHING!
COMPLETELY AGREE.
He’s been nothing but a waste for 2+ years. When will the leash be cut on this guy?!
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 11, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly who are we going to get that's better?
Dice is a 5th starter, and pretty much nobody has a good 5th starter. For a 5th starter, Dice is fine. Unless, we can be sure Doubront, Aceves, and Wake are going to be better, or if we can trade him without having to pay his salary, then we might as well just keep him. We could cut him loose and sign someone in the offseason, but starting pitching is expensive. If one of those three previously mentioned can be better than dice, then maybe we can move him to the pen. I cannot stand watching Dice pitch, but if you want to blame someone, blame Lackey and Buchholz for his slow start. those guys have much higher expectations. Dice just has to be decent. He has fulfilled that in all but one of his seasons in Boston.
Beckett blows, but Lackey blows more.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Apr 11, 2011 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
You made the point yourself
I can’t watch him pitch, I don’t think anyone who is a fan of the Sox can, it’s just terrible. I know he’s valuable for a 5th starter, but the fact of the matter is that a team like the Sox cannot have a “5th starter.” Especially one who draws the ire of the fanbase the way Dice-K has. He’s taken Lugo’s place as the whipping boy here, and he simply needs to be replaced with Doubront or Aceves for the time being, and possibly with a better pitcher in July if those two can’t handle the situation.
Frankly, I don’t want to be afraid to turn on the Sox two days out of every five, and if Lackey and Dice are both going to shit the bed every fourth and fifth day then something needs to be done.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 11, 2011 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions
We have a whole team of "5th starters" right now
With exceptions for Pedey, Ortiz, Lowrie and Gonzo (not looking up stats but I think pretty much everyone else is sucking) they’ve all struggled so far this season. We’ve gone 10 games without demanding that Crawford be benched and Dice gets two? You can’t make generalizations about the rest of the season based on two starts. After one start you’d have had to have said that Lester is finished and we know that isn’t true. Players with their age and track records don’t just drop from being useful pieces to trade bait.
They just need time. The whole team just needs time.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
It's not two games Rogue
It’s four years worth of disappointment and painful starts. Sure, he’s a decent 5th starter, but he’s painful to watch, and if Doubront can put up that same 4-4.5 ERA then he deserves the opportunity to pitch in the bigs.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
If you honestly believe that we would still be having this conversation if Dice were 2-0 with a 3.2 ERA right now then fine.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Yes, I'm jumping on the "Trade Dice-K" bandwagon
But people have their own reasons for not liking a player. For instance, I hate the Crawford contract, I’ve hated it all winter, are you going to accuse me of not giving Crawford time if I jump aboard the “Trade CC” train as well? Dice-K has put up four years of disappointing stats, which to me is unacceptable for the amount of money being paid to him. The fact that I cannot stand to watch him pitch since mid-2008 is enough explanation for me.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Everyone knows how you and I feel about Crawford, as long as his start isn’t the justification for trading him, saying that you want him to be gone is fine. We’ve both been vocal about him being a “bad fit” since the signing.
The demand of getting rid of Dice just has the timing of being reactionary. He only has to put up 2.5 WAR a year to be “worth it”. Last year he was even while missing a few starts. If he can put up 5 WAR over the course of the next two seasons he’d have paid for his salary, just like JD Drew can with a decent year now. Will he cover the posting fee? No, but that wasn’t his responsibility, and I’d imagine his marketing “intangibles” certainly go a long way towards filling the gap.
In the end, with numbers, I don’t think he can be looked at as a huge dissapointment, from the subjective view with expectations, certainly he was and he is hard to watch, the way he pitches but he way more often than not puts the team in a position to win the game and with the teams he’s played on that should often be enough.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Actually his first two years were pretty good
3.9, 3.3 WAR and he was decent last year in his limited starts 2.5 WAR, so he’s really only had one truly awful season (2009).
I can understand if you don’t like him as you obviously have your opinion but statistically speaking he’s been average – above average over his Sox career
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Apr 12, 2011 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
The difference is
No one is openly hating Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz. Many are also waiting out on Lackey. Everyone I’ve heard from has had it to wits end with Dice. He provides nothing but 2-5 grimacing innings every 5 days.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 12, 2011 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions
7IP 1ER
8IP 0 ER
6.2IP 3ER
8IP 0 ER
6IP 3ER
6IP 2 ER
6.2IP 1ER
6IP 1 ER
8IP 1ER
8IP 4 ER
8IP 2 ER
Here is a selection of 11 starts from last season where he went 6 innings or longer while also providing an ERA of 4.5 or less in the game. This is out of a total of 25 starts. There were only 4 games where he didn’t reaching the 5th, collecting 4.2 innings in each of them. As well as there being only 5 games where he gave up 5 or more ER. Looking at that, roughly 25% of his games were disasters, nearly 50% of them were actually very good starts and the other 25% is the middling 5IP 2-4ER variety that can still be good for this team if the offense is rolling and the bullpen doesn’t blow. Add it together and in 75% of his starts last season, Dice-K left the game with the team in a position to win the game. 75%.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Did you just say no one is openly hating on Beckett or Lackey?
Because that’s not true.
by South Coast Ghost on Apr 12, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Yep
There’s a lot of hate for Beckett here, and even more for Lackey
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Apr 12, 2011 10:31 AM EDT up reply actions
No doubt...
Though if Beckett strings together a few starts like Sunday’s against the MFY, he might silence the haters.
On Matsuzaka's 2008 season
2008 K/9 – 8.27, BB/9- 5.05, HR/9- 0.64, WHIP 1.32, FIP- 4.03, xFIP- 4.64
2010 K/9- 7.79, BB/9- 4.33, HR/- 0.76, WHIP- 1.37, FIP- 4.-5, xFIP- 4.54
He had fewer strikeouts in 2010, but he allowed fewer walks, so it was a give and take. Otherwise, the numbers are pretty similar, so ERA is a bunch of crap. 2007 was actually probably his best year. So, in other words, Dice has never been good in Boston.
Beckett blows, but Lackey blows more.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
So he needs to move on
Be that through trade, DFA, or a move to the bullpen, he cannot be a member of the 2011 or 2012 Boston Red Sox starting rotation.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Agreed
As I’ve been constantly saying, he provides nothing that Doubront or Wake couldn’t provide, for far cheaper.
At least Felix has the upside, and Wake is a fan favorite. I’d rather root for a guy who’s sucking than change the channel cause Daisuke is pitching.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 12, 2011 1:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Wake can't do it anymore period.
Doubront maybe but he’s also FAR from a certainty.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Doubront is a young kid that the Sox can get excited about
Dice-K is an aging, underperforming, overpaid player with a poor attitude. If they put up similar numbers who would you rather have on your team?
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 8:00 AM EDT up reply actions
But there's no certainty in what we'd get with Doubront
Especially since he was injured in Spring Training and probably isn’t ready to take over a full season’s worth of starts at this point.
Fact is, they’re not going to DFA him after 2 starts. They probably won’t DFA him after 20 starts. They’ve seemed to put out feelers for a trade in the past few seasons and so far no one has offered anything the Sox deem worthwhile.
by South Coast Ghost on Apr 12, 2011 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions
But you would still owe his money
So I don’t really get the “cheaper” argument. Plus we have very little data on Doubront to say that he would be better
This is the key point...
As brutal as yesterday’s start was (and I know the piece was written beforehand, but a lot of the discussion comes from afterwards), we cannot save any money by if we DFA or trade him… no one will give us any value for him, we probably still get stuck with his salary, and we’re trying someone else while still paying him.
I agree he’s painful to watch… especially yesterday. However, I’m with Rogue on this… he flashes a horrible start mixed in with some brilliant ones, and mediocre efforts in between. At the end of the day, with our offense, he puts us in a position to win the vast majority of his starts, and that’s all you can ask for from a 5th starter.
I mean… the Yankees signed Freddy Garcia for their #5. Would you prefer we were working with Freddy and Bartolo instead of a very frustrating and hard to watch Dice K?
Yes.
Garcia had a good year last year.
If we paid a good amount of Dice’s salary we would probably get a prospect in return, maybe a mid level, and that would be worth it.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 12, 2011 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
OH MY GOD
Daisuke Matsuzaka 2010: 153 IP (25 starts), 7.79 K/9, 4.33 BB/9, 4.69 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 4.54 xFIP, 2.5 WAR, 1.37 WHIP
Freddy Garcia 2010: 157 IP (28 starts), 5.10 K/9, 2.58 BB/9, 4.64 ERA, 4.77 FIP, 4.41 xFIP, 1.3 WAR, 1.38 WHIP
Now complement Daisuke on his good year last year, it was just as good as Garcia’s, if not better with his edge in Ks better than Garcia’s edge in BBs.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Lower Walks, Better control, Better results.
Better pitcher.
by GroundRuleTriple90 on Apr 12, 2011 8:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Less K's, less innings per start, more base runners per inning.
Worse pitcher.
See what I did there? They had nearly essentially the same years, one is good and a guy you’d rather have, the other is the guy you wish we never had? At least make sense if nothing else.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
How much were they being paid?
Tell me honestly that Dice-K can go out and get 2/20 on the open market if he were a free agent this last winter.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
He wouldn't, but he would still be worth it likely.
But then of course, right now, the Sox aren’t pressed for cash, and don’t look to be any time in the near future, Gonzo extension or no Gonzo extension. He only has to be put up 2.5 WAR a year to be worth a 2/20 contract, he could do that fairly easily and it wouldn’t be a terrible deal.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
No it wouldn't
Dice-K has Drew syndrome, with the only problem being that we know he can be a phenomenal pitcher when he wants to be. Add in his issues with the (admittedly poor) Boston medical staff, and his refusal to tell the team about his injuries, and I can’t cut him the same slack I cut Drew.
Drew is a fantastic player who doesn’t show emotion and takes some time off to keep playing at a high level.
Dice-K is a mediocre/adequate player who doesn’t show emotion, refuses to train the way the team wants him to, and plays through injuries that would normally put him on the Disabled List.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Apr 12, 2011 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
but how is that relevant?
The money on Dice-K is spent, so how does spending money on someone else solve a problem?
Completely aside from the point, I think it’s funny that at one time, Garcia set the record for highest salary for a first-time arb-eligible player.
Well...
… at least we now know that: “Stop nibbling and throw some damn strikes!” is really, really bad advice as it turns out.
I’ve not hated Daisuke constantly since he signed, but I’ve decided to start. If nothing else, players who I openly despise and demand be traded for a bag of balls seem to fairly regularly make me eat my words (Pedroia at first, Papi every spring). Maybe it’ll work that way with Dice.
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 12, 2011 1:25 PM EDT reply actions
We can only hope.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
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